MBB: Duke 87, Rhode Island 62 (NCAA 2nd round) Post-Game Thread

[mattman91]

Really solid win! Michigan St will be tough! But we beat them once already... let’s beat them again!!
(and no, Syracuse doesn’t stand a chance at beating the Spartans. We will be playing Michigan St.)

This guy...

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don’t think so. Michigan St. is far superior. Cuse does not match up well. If Michigan St wins by less than 20, I’ll be very surprised.

Are you very surprised?

[FerryFor50]

I'd like to believe it was a reverse jinx and not just someone talking out of his/her you-know-what.

Given their disappearance, I’d vote “not reverse jinx.”

[CDu]

This guy...

I was told that Syracuse had less of a chance to beat MSU than UMBC had of beating UVa...

[Papa John]

I don’t think so. Michigan St. is far superior. Cuse does not match up well. If Michigan St wins by less than 20, I’ll be very surprised.

I see what ya did there... Nice reverse weaux execution! Let’s hope the gods are not displeased with this manipulation...

[MChambers]

I was told that Syracuse had less of a chance to beat MSU than UMBC had of beating UVa...

I mean, UMBC obliterated UVa. Syracuse sneaked by MSU.

[sagegrouse]

I mean, UMBC obliterated UVa. Syracuse sneaked by MSU.

Yeah, Syracuse. What's with that??!! Two points? Only two points?

[Troublemaker]

It was a well-executed reverse jinx.

A note to cbarry - please don't come back to the thread and admit it was a reverse jinx because if you do, Duke will lose to Syracuse. Reverse jinxes NEED to go to the grave. In essence, a reverse jinx is a trade: you get beat up by message board posters about your bad prediction, but the outcome you desired occurs. Don't break the contract.

[DU82]

After last year, when we had to wait until the last game to play in the second round, it's nice to play the first game of the weekend, and enjoy watching the rest of the games so relaxed (especially when Agricultural and Mechanical colleges play so well.)

[Troublemaker]

Finally got a chance to watch the Duke-URI game (family obligations).

The zone defense was superb as always. I think when Wendell is out, Coach K now prefers Marvin at center and Javin on the wing because Marques reacts slowly to that free-throw-line-to-slot pass that opponents make. Wendell is the best at it by recovering quickly to the slot man, getting vertical and rim-protecting. Marques fouls on the same opportunity.

On offense, we're still fundamentally the same team. A high-risk, high-reward offense. URI was still clogging the lanes. The difference in this game was that (a) there were several near-turnovers that we escaped by spinning out of double-team trouble or because the refs were lenient on calling charges that occur after releasing the pass (which enraged the URI bench, but Grayson needs be more careful because he could've gotten into massive foul trouble in the 1st half with a different crew), and (b) on non-turnover possessions, we killed them.

(B) is sort of the key for this team now. I've come to terms with the offense continuing to be high-risk for turnovers, but when the passes get through, we need to convert our inside opportunities and hit our threes. So, for example, if we throw a pass that has a 30% chance at a turnover, but if the pass gets through, we have a 90% chance at two points, the overall expected value of that pass is 1.26 points per possession (.70 x .90 x 2), which is great.

The perfect example of this (although it's not a clogged lane example) was the #1 play in GoDuke's top 5 plays for the game. Grayson makes a long throwahead pass to Marvin under the basket, who saves the ball from going out of bounds, pivots without traveling, and finds a trailing Wendell for the dunk. Attempt the pass, okay, but you better catch and convert it.

As an aside, Trevon's handle was really impressive in this game (despite mishandling a ball out of bounds early in the game). He had the URI defenders on skates a lot of the time with his dribbling and crossovers.

[COYS]

On offense, we're still fundamentally the same team. A high-risk, high-reward offense. URI was still clogging the lanes. The difference in this game was that (a) there were several near-turnovers that we escaped by spinning out of double-team trouble or because the refs were lenient on calling charges that occur after releasing the pass (which enraged the URI bench, but Grayson needs be more careful because he could've gotten into massive foul trouble in the 1st half with a different crew), and (b) on non-turnover possessions, we killed them.

(B) is sort of the key for this team now. I've come to terms with the offense continuing to be high-risk for turnovers, but when the passes get through, we need to convert our inside opportunities and hit our threes. So, for example, if we throw a pass that has a 30% chance at a turnover, but if the pass gets through, we have a 90% chance at two points, the overall expected value of that pass is 1.26 points per possession (.70 x .90 x 2), which is great.

The perfect example of this (although it's not a clogged lane example) was the #1 play in GoDuke's top 5 plays for the game. Grayson makes a long throwahead pass to Marvin under the basket, who saves the ball from going out of bounds, pivots without traveling, and finds a trailing Wendell for the dunk. Attempt the pass, okay, but you better catch and convert it.

Excellent post, as always. I will say that I mind the high-risk hit-ahead passes a lot less than the high risk post-entry passes that we seemed to be forcing during our offensive “slump” (in relative terms) over the last 10 games of the season or slow. A lot of the risky alley-oops and transition passes result in either an easy score or a turnover with a dead ball if the pass sails out of bounds or the receiver travels, etc. Even if there is a live-ball turnover, the opposing team is usually starting from their own baseline.

Meanwhile, I thought we did a good job limiting high risk entry passes. Perhaps it was just my imagination because the game went our way, but we had only one, possibly two grown-worthy passes into the post (I recall a really bad high-low pass from Wendell, who is usually quite good at those passes, earlier in the game). The post players also did a good job sealing their defenders, forcing Rhode Island players to foul when they went for the steal. Those passes are a lot more dangerous because when they go wrong, they often result in live ball turnovers that can be converted into easy baskets on the other end so not only is the chance of success lower, the turnovers are more likely to result in scores for the other team. I thought that we tended to make only really good entry passes off of smart ball movement and cross-screen action. I hope that trend continues against Syracuse.

[robed deity]

Excellent post, as always. I will say that I mind the high-risk hit-ahead passes a lot less than the high risk post-entry passes that we seemed to be forcing during our offensive “slump” (in relative terms) over the last 10 games of the season or slow. A lot of the risky alley-oops and transition passes result in either an easy score or a turnover with a dead ball if the pass sails out of bounds or the receiver travels, etc. Even if there is a live-ball turnover, the opposing team is usually starting from their own baseline.

Meanwhile, I thought we did a good job limiting high risk entry passes. Perhaps it was just my imagination because the game went our way, but we had only one, possibly two grown-worthy passes into the post (I recall a really bad high-low pass from Wendell, who is usually quite good at those passes, earlier in the game). The post players also did a good job sealing their defenders, forcing Rhode Island players to foul when they went for the steal. Those passes are a lot more dangerous because when they go wrong, they often result in live ball turnovers that can be converted into easy baskets on the other end so not only is the chance of success lower, the turnovers are more likely to result in scores for the other team. I thought that we tended to make only really good entry passes off of smart ball movement and cross-screen action. I hope that trend continues against Syracuse.

I agree. Maybe it's because we won by 25, but aside from that first Carter entry, I didn't mind a lot of the decision making. I do think the game could have gone in a different direction early, but Allen hit a couple big shots to set the tone, as a captain should.

As Trouble said, there were maybe 1 or 2 charges they could have called after dump off passes, but after seeing replays, they would have been REALLY weak calls. The charge on Bagley early was pretty weak as it was.

Turnovers are definitely still a concern, but URI is one of the top teams at forcing them. I'll take at least a little comfort in Duke committing fewer than the Rams usually force.

[COYS]

Turnovers are definitely still a concern, but URI is one of the top teams at forcing them. I'll take at least a little comfort in Duke committing fewer than the Rams usually force.

To my eyes, our propensity for turnovers seems to be more or less the same no matter how stout the opposing defense. We just seem prone to a few dumb decisions per game. I can’t tell if that’s a good thing (because it means tougher defensive teams aren’t necessarily likely to dramatically increase our turnover rate) or a bad thing (in a close game, some of those silly turnovers will come back to bite us). When I get a chance, I will go back and check to see if there is much correlation between the opposing team’s normal turnover rate and our turnover rate over the past 12 games (when the “New Duke” with zone defense emerged). At any rate, I’m glad that we kept our silly, unforced turnovers in check in the first two games and I hope that trend continues. We’re just so dangerous on offense that it is such a waste when we don’t at least get a shot up. There’s a very good chance it’s going in on the first try a pretty good chance we’ll get an offensive board if we miss. With our new, elite defense, it’s going to be hard to beat a Duke team that takes care of the ball.

[ice-9]

The key I thought was we didn’t force the entry pass. When it wasn’t quite there we ran a play for the perimeter. Make a few shots and that forces the opposing team to spread out more, which then opened up the interior pass.

[cbarry]

YES, Reverse-jinks/weaux!!! Glad to be playing 'Cuse. Can't wait for the game! GO DUKE!!!!

I see what ya did there... Nice reverse weaux execution! Let’s hope the gods are not displeased with this manipulation...

[CDu]

It was a well-executed reverse jinx.

A note to cbarry - please don't come back to the thread and admit it was a reverse jinx because if you do, Duke will lose to Syracuse. Reverse jinxes NEED to go to the grave. In essence, a reverse jinx is a trade: you get beat up by message board posters about your bad prediction, but the outcome you desired occurs. Don't break the contract.

YES, Reverse-jinks/weaux!!! Glad to be playing 'Cuse. Can't wait for the game! GO DUKE!!!!

Ahem...

[cbarry]

Oops. That’s what happens when I don’t get enough sleep and don’t read the whole thread...
consider it a reverse-reverse... heck I don’t know. Lol. Let’s just beat the heck out of the Orange!

[ice-9]

Oops. That’s what happens when I don’t get enough sleep and don’t read the whole thread...
consider it a reverse-reverse... heck I don’t know. Lol. Let’s just beat the heck out of the Orange!

If we lose to the Cuse...you’re losing all your pitchforks! 🤬

[cbarry]

😪. No worries — We are going to crush the Orange!

If we lose to the Cuse...you’re losing all your pitchforks! 🤬

[flyingdutchdevil]

😪. No worries — We are going to crush the Orange!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

cbarry, for the love of God, please don't make blanket statements about Duke. Other teams? Sure. But not Duke.