State of the team entering the NCAA Tournament

[Saratoga2]

Most Due fans, myself included, believe we have the size, skill, depth and athleticism to compete with anyone we face and have a significant advantage over most opponents. Our zone defense is good and could even be better and when we t4rap and press we can further reduce the other teams opportunity to score. when we play hard we will be difficult to beat.

Perhaps it is mundane to talk about how our offense must play to avoid being upset in an early round and to remain competitive against our best opponents. The fundamental point is we need to get good quality, high percentage shots every time we possess the ball or get fouled. What is a good quality shot?

1. One taken from near the 3 point line or in.
2. One taken by a high percentage shooter from the location on the floor.
3. One taken that is not heavily contested. (not through a double team or with a person right in the shooters face)
4. One taken in rhythm
5. One taken with rebounders with a chance of getting missed shots
6. On steals, only go to the basket when we have a numbers advantage or are ahead of the defender.

To get these quality shots, we first need to inbound the ball and get it up the court even when under some pressure or against a trap. We need to space our players coming up the floor so there is always a good passing lane. One thing we should not do is try for the spectacular long pass that has a low percentage success rate. Also, long cross court passes are often risky. Make passes that have a low % of being picked off. We win by making good decisions with the ball.

These are pretty fundamental points but ones which we have continually made mistakes. No one expects perfection, but if our players keep the basics in mind, they will win.

[Spanarkel]

Most Due fans, myself included, believe we have the size, skill, depth and athleticism to compete with anyone we face and have a significant advantage over most opponents. Our zone defense is good and could even be better and when we t4rap and press we can further reduce the other teams opportunity to score. when we play hard we will be difficult to beat.

Perhaps it is mundane to talk about how our offense must play to avoid being upset in an early round and to remain competitive against our best opponents. The fundamental point is we need to get good quality, high percentage shots every time we possess the ball or get fouled. What is a good quality shot?

1. One taken from near the 3 point line or in.
2. One taken by a high percentage shooter from the location on the floor.
3. One taken that is not heavily contested. (not through a double team or with a person right in the shooters face)
4. One taken in rhythm
5. One taken with rebounders with a chance of getting missed shots
6. On steals, only go to the basket when we have a numbers advantage or are ahead of the defender.

To get these quality shots, we first need to inbound the ball and get it up the court even when under some pressure or against a trap. We need to space our players coming up the floor so there is always a good passing lane. One thing we should not do is try for the spectacular long pass that has a low percentage success rate. Also, long cross court passes are often risky. Make passes that have a low % of being picked off. We win by making good decisions with the ball.

These are pretty fundamental points but ones which we have continually made mistakes. No one expects perfection, but if our players keep the basics in mind, they will win.

Agree. The great batsman Rogers Hornsby, when asked about his approach to hitting, said the key thing was to "get a good ball to hit."

[jv001]

Most Due fans, myself included, believe we have the size, skill, depth and athleticism to compete with anyone we face and have a significant advantage over most opponents. Our zone defense is good and could even be better and when we t4rap and press we can further reduce the other teams opportunity to score. when we play hard we will be difficult to beat.

Perhaps it is mundane to talk about how our offense must play to avoid being upset in an early round and to remain competitive against our best opponents. The fundamental point is we need to get good quality, high percentage shots every time we possess the ball or get fouled. What is a good quality shot?

1. One taken from near the 3 point line or in.
2. One taken by a high percentage shooter from the location on the floor.
3. One taken that is not heavily contested. (not through a double team or with a person right in the shooters face)
4. One taken in rhythm
5. One taken with rebounders with a chance of getting missed shots
6. On steals, only go to the basket when we have a numbers advantage or are ahead of the defender.

To get these quality shots, we first need to inbound the ball and get it up the court even when under some pressure or against a trap. We need to space our players coming up the floor so there is always a good passing lane. One thing we should not do is try for the spectacular long pass that has a low percentage success rate. Also, long cross court passes are often risky. Make passes that have a low % of being picked off. We win by making good decisions with the ball.

These are pretty fundamental points but ones which we have continually made mistakes. No one expects perfection, but if our players keep the basics in mind, they will win.

I agree on your assessment of our offense. One thing comes to mind regarding shots taken in our half court set. We sometimes get caught up in dribbling the air out of the ball around the perimeter. I know we've discussed this way too many times but we seem so intent in passing the ball down low that we let the shot clock run down to near zero and have to force a pass or force a shot. GET IN AN OFFENSIVE SET AS SOON AS THE BALL GET'S ACROSS THE TEN SECOND LINE. If the low post men are covered, go to another set. This team has so much talent on offense it should not have to struggle to score. I hate to say it, but it looks like some of this is on the coaching staff. Ok, now let me have it. I'm a big boy. GoDuke!

[House G]

Of course we have the talent to run the table. This Duke team, which has been brilliant at times, is wildly inconsistent. I’m sure part of this equation is the OAD issue. No matter how great your players are, there is no substitute for upper classmen that have played together for awhile (eg the cheats). And there are a whole bunch of teams in the tournament that fit this description. With regard to fundamentals, if we haven’t learned a lot of these by now, its probably too late. There are quite a few things you could point to, including poor positioning, not boxing out, not rotating or helping out, poor shot selection, poor entry passing, missed FTs, and so on. I’m not sure why some of these things persist—I never was very tall but I sure as hell understood how to box out (I’m guessing 6’11” guys coming out of high school never had to do this). I’m sure a lot of these things improve with time and experience, but time has run out. Our finals start tomorrow. And then there is the great paradox Duvall. I tend to agree that how he plays will determine how far we go. But how frustrating has he been to watch this year? I cringe when he dribbles, when he drives, when he shoots a three, and when he is at the FT line. But with the bad comes the good—a rarely seen (in college) combination of speed, quickness, and strength, a ball hawk, a disruptor, a slasher, a guy who has the ability to break down most defenses. So it will be interesting to see which team shows up. What are the chances we win our next 6 games? Probably as good as anyone else’s. If Duke somehow manages to win this thing, IMO it would be one of Coach K’s better performances.

[budwom]

tough to assess "the state of the team" without knowing Duval's health. We need two things very badly, for both offensive and defensive purposes: 1) a truly healthy Duval, and 2) a Duval with solid judgment and limited turnovers. With both of those we'll be a major force. Without them, disappointment looms.

[elvis14]

tough to assess "the state of the team" without knowing Duval's health. We need two things very badly, for both offensive and defensive purposes: 1) a truly healthy Duval, and 2) a Duval with solid judgment and limited turnovers. With both of those we'll be a major force. Without them, disappointment looms.

Good point budworm. One thing that's interesting is that this team is pretty flexible and can make adjustments to each team it plays. Against the Cheaters, it was Duval's ability to blow past their defenders and break down their defense that gave us an edge to win G2 and outscore them when Duval was on the court in G3. Other teams will have different weaknesses and what Duval brings may not be needed the way it was last week. That's why we have had some great wins this year even though an important player like Duval or GA have an off game. Some for when MBIII was out. I think having a healthy Duval is important for us to reach our peak and I think he is important to the success of our zone and our trap. At the same time each game there will be a player or two who are most important for that game depending on the opponent and how those 1-2 players perform will determine our success.

[Jeffrey]

Not thrilled about our probable matchups. Would strongly prefer UNC's probable matchups of Michigan and Xavier.

OTOH, I think we can truly beat any team and are more balanced than most of our past teams. I think we are the second best team (behind UVA) in the tournament. We will play next weekend and I'm hoping we get very lucky and Michigan State does not.

[budwom]

Not thrilled about our probable matchups. Would strongly prefer UNC's probable matchups of Michigan and Xavier.

OTOH, I think we can truly beat any team and are more balanced than most of our past teams. I think we are the second best team (behind UVA) in the tournament. We will play next weekend and I'm hoping we get very lucky and Michigan State does not.

Michigan has looked very good to me of late...they're disciplined and won't be an easy out...I'm OK with who we have...

[jv001]

Michigan has looked very good to me of late...they're disciplined and won't be an easy out...I'm OK with who we have...

And the Wolverines have beaten the Spartans twice this season. I'll take our chances with Michigan State if we get that far. We've beaten them once with Bagley out for most of the game. GoDuke!

[Jeffrey]

Michigan has looked very good to me of late...they're disciplined and won't be an easy out...I'm OK with who we have...

IMO, winning the Regional Championship Game is frequently the toughest tournament game and, if they survive, I'd much rather face Xavier than Kansas.

[flyingdutchdevil]

IMO, winning the Regional Championship Game is frequently the toughest tournament game and, if they survive, I'd much rather face Xavier than Kansas.

Sure, but I'd rather face Kansas than Nova or UVA.

[Jeffrey]

Sure, but I'd rather face Kansas than Nova or UVA.

Agreed, which is why I think the Cheaters (with an inferior season) got the best placement as a 2 seed. IMO, we are the top ranked 2 seed and should be in that spot (facing the weakest 1 seed).

[CDu]

I think it is certainly true that UNC has the easiest 1 seed. It is also fair to say that Duke could have worse brackets. Yes, MSU is a tough 3 seed. Per KenPom and T-Rank, they are the toughest of the 3 seeds and actually slightly better than UNC (though UNC's resume is somewhat deflated by missing Cam Johnson for much of the early part of the year). But aside from that game, I'm pretty comfortable with our draw. We got a reasonably good option for our 15 seed, we got the worst 7 seed and second-worst 10 seed, and we got the 3rd worst 1 seed.

And while UNC has the easiest (by far) 1 seed, the 4 seed is actually better than the 1 seed and is a top-10 team that is arguably on par with UNC and Kansas.

[Jeffrey]

And while UNC has the easiest (by far) 1 seed, the 4 seed is actually better than the 1 seed and is a top-10 team that is arguably on par with UNC and Kansas.

I think you're overrating Gonzaga. IMO, Arizona is the strongest 4 seed.

[CDu]

I think you're overrating Gonzaga. IMO, Arizona is the strongest 4 seed.

Arizona has more NBA talent on their roster. But Gonzaga is favored by all the metrics-based stats. But quite a bit actually.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Arizona has more NBA talent on their roster. But Gonzaga is favored by all the metrics-based stats. But quite a bit actually.

except for one metric...that is...which one every coach, and fan base, would RATHER play. Answer? The Zags.

[Jeffrey]

Arizona has more NBA talent on their roster. But Gonzaga is favored by all the metrics-based stats. But quite a bit actually.

Clearly, I have not looked at any stats, but I still believe Arizona is the better team. As a 4 seed, I think Arizona could win the West Region, but I do not think Gonzaga will.

[Highlander]

Agreed, which is why I think the Cheaters (with an inferior season) got the best placement as a 2 seed. IMO, we are the top ranked 2 seed and should be in that spot (facing the weakest 1 seed).

The Committee had Duke as the #6 team, with UNC as #5. We had a better regular season record, but they beat us twice head to head, so it's hard for me to disagree too much. Had UNC been a #1 seed with 10 losses and a 6th place finish in conference, then I would quibble.

Seems to me Duke got the closer regional while UNC got the closer pod. They got the Big 10 conference champ and we got the big 10 regular season champ. All in all, remarkably even. I don't know if I would change places with UNC in the bracket, given the opportunity.

[Troublemaker]

I think you're overrating Gonzaga. IMO, Arizona is the strongest 4 seed.

Arizona isn't as hot as some people are making them out to be. Two games ago, they were taken to overtime by UCLA.

except for one metric...that is...which one every coach, and fan base, would RATHER play. Answer? The Zags.

Nah, not me. And I'd like to see official polling on that. I'd rather play Zona on the East Coast than Gonzaga on the West Coast, and I think lots of coaches would agree.

[devildeac]

Clearly, I have not looked at any stats, but I still believe Arizona is the better team. As a 4 seed, I think Arizona could win the West Region, but I do not think Gonzaga will.

I'm smelling Pi today...