The final phase begins on Thursday. We have the talent to win the whole thing. Iona is step one.
Iona won the MAAC tournament but had a lot of help. The 1, 2 and 3 seeds were all knocked out in the quarterfinals, leaving #4 Iona as the highest seed in the semis.
Iona's main three guys on the front line rotation are 6'6", 6'7" and 6'8". If any of them can defend Bagley and Carter without ending up on a poster I'd be shocked. And now with the zone, I'm not worried about them getting dragged out into pick and pop type ball screens.
If you look at Iona's schedule, they didn't really beat anyone of note.
As for common Duke opponents:
- Lost to Syracuse 71-62
- Lost to St John's 69-59
They also lost to potential 2nd round opponent Rhode Island 80-74.
Iona's offensive efficiency in KenPom is 110.3 (80th) and defensive efficiency of 107.4 (212th) with a tempo of 70.7 (56th).
So, they play a decent pace and aren't terrible offensively, but are pretty bad defensively.
They also give up a TON of offensive rebounds, don't turn it over much and don't force a ton of turnovers. They also don't get to the line a lot and give up a decent amount of free throws.
I think Duke rolls them over pretty easily.
Vegas lines are out : we’re currently 20-pt fav.
In general, I agree with that assessment. I also think Trae Young would struggle against our fall back zone, given Duke's length. So on general match ups, I agree. That said, the downside of playing Oklahoma to me is that all week those guys are going to hear how they don't belong, how they shouldn't be there. Motivations like this, and Arizona's with the pay the player accusation, can absolutely become huge factors in the NCAA. Teams can simply play above their heads. How many times do we see an unexpected run in the tourney, and come to find out a team is 'on a mission' due to this that or the other thing. Well we know what those things could be with Zona and Oklahoma.
Sometimes my radar on these things is right on the money. Sometimes I"m just paranoid...
A few quick kenpom hits:
- Iona is kenpom #134.
- No wins vs. kenpom top 100.
- One win vs. kenpom top 150: Rider (#139)
- Better than D1-average offensive efficiency (#80); worse than average defensive efficiency (#212)
- Very poor rebounding team (#303 offensive reb efficiency); #253 defensive rebounding efficiency
- Good 3-pt shooting - 38.8% (#33) vs. Duke 37.8% (#49)
- Stifling free throw shooting defense at 66.2% (#3) vs. Duke at 73.9% (#308)
- Notable results: @Cuse (L, -9 pts), @St. John's (L, -10), @Rhode Island (L, -6).
- kenpom projects a 19-point Duke win.
Edit: I see FerryFor50 beat me to it on some of this...
"I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K
Mercer was 13. Lehigh was 11.
It's not comparable because Duke is a computer darling this season, and computers are integral to how spreads are created. On digital paper, we are a much stronger team than 2014 and 2012. (And in reality, too, imo).
13.5 for Mercer
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/merc...-march-21-2014
12.5 for Lehigh
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaab/poin...-march-16-2012
A couple things:
- The Duke team that lost to Mercer was pretty bad defensively (86th). This year's team is #7 in effective defense.
- The Duke team that lost to Lehigh was also bad on defense (79) and were facing a future NBA star in CJ McCollum.
Iona has no NBA players, most likely. CJ McCollum averaged 22ppg for Lehigh. Iona has 2 guys averaging around 13ppg.