NCAA South collector thread (Virginia #1 seed, Cincy #2)

[HereBeforeCoachK]

If Virginia can beat us in Cameron, they can beat Arizona. Wilkins, Salt, Hunter and Diakite are all strong frontcourt defenders. They may not stop Ayton, but they can certainly slow him down.

Virginia certainly can beat them, but I submit that there are reasons to suspect that Arizona and Kentucky both are much stronger than a normal 4-5 seed. Arizona is now on a mission, and everybody knows they have elite talent, and size, much more so than Virginia. They really rallied around each other after the Ayton/Miller suspension weekend. I consider them a threat to go all the way. Motivation like that means a lot in sudden death situations.

And Kentucky has just figured out how to play with this collection of players. Calipari said as much Sunday, seemed more relaxed than I've ever seen him, and you can tell that he knows they have found something. Again, this is a team with elite talent that has under achieved so far, but have recently figured it out.

Virginia's biggest advantage is that Bennett had his team figured out from day one, and they've become the classic situation where the whole is greater than just the sum of the parts. With both UK and Zona, their "sum of the parts" is greater than Virginia's - and now it's a case of whether or not the "whole" of UK or UA is greater than the whole of Virginia.

I suppose today there's no way, even for a top seed, not to get an opponent that scares you in the Sweet 16. But whoever emerges from this pairing would have me into the vodka were they in Duke's region. (and no, i don't see a Davidson upset in the "Wildcat" region. )

I would also add that we think Duke might have "found something" in the second half against the Cheats in Durham. If that's the case, and I pulled for someone else, then I wouldn't want to be facing Duke in the tournament either. Beware of teams that suddenly "figure it out' now - as well as those with a burning sense of being wronged.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Virginia certainly can beat them, but I submit that there are reasons to suspect that Arizona and Kentucky both are much stronger than a normal 4-5 seed. Arizona is now on a mission, and everybody knows they have elite talent, and size, much more so than Virginia. They really rallied around each other after the Ayton/Miller suspension weekend. I consider them a threat to go all the way. Motivation like that means a lot in sudden death situations.

And Kentucky has just figured out how to play with this collection of players. Calipari said as much Sunday, seemed more relaxed than I've ever seen him, and you can tell that he knows they have found something. Again, this is a team with elite talent that has under achieved so far, but have recently figured it out.

Virginia's biggest advantage is that Bennett had his team figured out from day one, and they've become the classic situation where the whole is greater than just the sum of the parts. With both UK and Zona, their "sum of the parts" is greater than Virginia's - and now it's a case of whether or not the "whole" of UK or UA is greater than the whole of Virginia.

I suppose today there's no way, even for a top seed, not to get an opponent that scares you in the Sweet 16. But whoever emerges from this pairing would have me into the vodka were they in Duke's region. (and no, i don't see a Davidson upset in the "Wildcat" region. )

I would also add that we think Duke might have "found something" in the second half against the Cheats in Durham. If that's the case, and I pulled for someone else, then I wouldn't want to be facing Duke in the tournament either. Beware of teams that suddenly "figure it out' now - as well as those with a burning sense of being wronged.

Yes, again (sorry for beating this drum again) let's remember what a difference a few plays make... If Grayson doesn't get a little cheeky at the end of the half and Duke finds a way to win the UNC game after that abysmal first ten minutes, we are a team that EVERYONE is watching closely and no one wants any part of. But, things fall a different way, we don't win that game and have to stay home and watch UVa knock off the Heels, and are left with a sense of "who knows where we go from here."

UVa definitely earned the top tournament seed. They also did nothing to deserve this absurd bracket. Beating UNC should have earned a much better prize, IMHO.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Beware of teams that suddenly "figure it out' now - as well as those with a burning sense of being wronged.

This is what I'm hoping happens with the Wahoos now. Opinions differ on Jerome and Guy, and I get that, but I think it's safe to say they have healthy confidence and (especially in Jerome's case) play with a chip on their collective shoulders. This is fuel for the fire. I hate that my team, as the #1 overall seed, got a bracket like this, but that team rarely gets to play the "Nobody believed in us!" card. This team can legitimately say that.

[FerryFor50]

This is what I'm hoping happens with the Wahoos now. Opinions differ on Jerome and Guy, and I get that, but I think it's safe to say they have healthy confidence and (especially in Jerome's case) play with a chip on their collective shoulders. This is fuel for the fire. I hate that my team, as the #1 overall seed, got a bracket like this, but that team rarely gets to play the "Nobody believed in us!" card. This team can legitimately say that.

Do you think winning the ACCT and getting the number 1 overall seed is enough to put a chip on their shoulders? Do these guys even care who gets put in their brackets?

[Troublemaker]

UVa definitely earned the top tournament seed. They also did nothing to deserve this absurd bracket.

Can some of our many UVA posters chime in? Are you guys on board with this narrative that your bracket is absurd and you got screwed?

I mean, basically it just comes down to that you have to play ONE of Kentucky and Arizona (not BOTH), right? So potentially a tough S16 game, but I'm not even sure either team matches up all that well with UVA. And if it's Arizona, they will be playing on the East Coast in UVA's region.

UVA fans, you are happy with your 2 and 3 seeds, right? Thus, this bracket ain't so bad for you at all, right?

[DarkstarWahoo]

Do you think winning the ACCT and getting the number 1 overall seed is enough to put a chip on their shoulders? Do these guys even care who gets put in their brackets?

I’m sure they’re a whole lot more confident than I am.

I’m also heartened by the way we played against another team with elite NBA talent - the Duke Blue Devils. Y’all’s conclusions and reasoning may differ, but to my eyes, it took a full 20 minutes before you guys found your footing against us. K got y’all squared away in the second half, but he’s a way better coach than Miller. And you guys see us every year!

[DarkstarWahoo]

Troublemaker - sorry, did not see your post. I do recognize that it’s not a doubleheader against UK and Zona, and I do like our 2 and 3. The outrage on my end is largely that I view our path as being significantly harder than that of the 2 seed in our own region. That ain’t right.

At the end of the day, you have to beat somebody sometime. We can’t get UMBCs all the way to San Antonio.

[robed deity]

This is what I'm hoping happens with the Wahoos now. Opinions differ on Jerome and Guy, and I get that, but I think it's safe to say they have healthy confidence and (especially in Jerome's case) play with a chip on their collective shoulders. This is fuel for the fire. I hate that my team, as the #1 overall seed, got a bracket like this, but that team rarely gets to play the "Nobody believed in us!" card. This team can legitimately say that.

Sure, but the difficulty of the bracket is way overblown. Arizona and Kentucky are talented teams, yes, but UVA will handle either. And Cincy as the 2 is probably the preferred one over Purdue. A great defensive team but they have trouble making shots against average defenses, let alone you guys'.

[FerryFor50]

I’m sure they’re a whole lot more confident than I am.

I’m also heartened by the way we played against another team with elite NBA talent - the Duke Blue Devils. Y’all’s conclusions and reasoning may differ, but to my eyes, it took a full 20 minutes before you guys found your footing against us. K got y’all squared away in the second half, but he’s a way better coach than Miller. And you guys see us every year!

Yea, but every year lately, it's a new set of guys having to learn the same lessons over and over.

Meanwhile, your guys are all 10th year seniors.

It's a blessing and a curse.

[FerryFor50]

Sure, but the difficulty of the bracket is way overblown. Arizona and Kentucky are talented teams, yes, but UVA will handle either. And Cincy as the 2 is probably the preferred one over Purdue. A great defensive team but they have trouble making shots against average defenses, let alone you guys'.

I don't think the committee got the seeding of UK or Arizona wrong; they both had their struggles this season and played unevenly. Before the SEC tournament, UK was likely looking at a 5 or 6 seed.

I think UVA actually benefits from UK and Zona beating the bejeezus out of each other before they have to play the physically taxing defense that UVA plays.

[Troublemaker]

Troublemaker - sorry, did not see your post. I do recognize that it’s not a doubleheader against UK and Zona, and I do like our 2 and 3. The outrage on my end is largely that I view our path as being significantly harder than that of the 2 seed in our own region. That ain’t right.

At the end of the day, you have to beat somebody sometime. We can’t get UMBCs all the way to San Antonio.

Agreed.

Let's also play the "Would you trade places with another #1" game?

I don't think any UVA fan trades places with Xavier. UNC/Michigan are a tougher 2/3 than Cincy/Tenn, and having Gonzaga (#8 kenpom) as your 4 seed on the West coast is as tough or more tough than playing UK/Zona on the East Coast. So, UVA would not trade with Xavier.

Would UVA trade with Kansas? It's closer, but I think the presence of Michigan St on the other side of the region makes you guys say "no thanks." And Duke isn't chopped liver, either. The 4/5 of Auburn/Clemson is probably easier than Kentucky/Zona, but that's about it. I don't think UVA trades with Kansas.

UVA would very likely trade with Villanova. I recognize that. But keep in mind the 8 seed VaTech and the 5 seed WVU are the two teams that have vanquished you this season. Still, UVA would make the trade.

So, basically, if I'm right, UVA does not trade places with two of its fellow 1-seeds, leaving only Nova's region as more desirable. I'd say UVa got a fair shake, all things considered.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

UVa definitely earned the top tournament seed. They also did nothing to deserve this absurd bracket. Beating UNC should have earned a much better prize, IMHO.

Agreed, and I got whipped pretty snarkily by some of the old heads around here for suggesting it. I was also assured that none of the UVa people would agree with my take (and yours). It appears they do agree with us....DarkStar included.

Also, writer Mike DeCourcy agrees, saying this: "The Cavaliers were handed a bracket, particularly their half of the South, that feels a teensy bit like the one the committee hung on undefeated Wichita State in 2014. The message seems to be: You think you're something because you dominated the ACC with only a single defeat in 21 games? Ha! Prove it."

The Wichita 2014 is a great analogy - as a 1 seed, they got 8th seeded Kentucky in the second round. UK had a disappointing season, but they were extremely talented, far more so than Wichita, and this was a screw job to Wichita, who like UVa, had earned better. Right now UVa is a better team than either Arizona or UK, but both of them are more talented, and it's not what UVa earned....

I mean, if Mountain, DeCourcy, and Darkstar agree...who can quibble?

[luvdahops]

Change the FT shooting a little bit (we only hit 5 of 11), you get a different outcome. I don't think the 2 pt UVa-Duke game is a valid predictor for UVa-UofA.

Of course Duke had chances to win that game. But we didn't. The point that UVA clearly demonstrated they could compete with us, despite a clear difference in size and talent. And Duke and Arizona have very, very similar profiles:

Ayton = Bagley
Trier = Allen
Rustic = Carter (probably the weakest analogy)
Akins = Trent
Jackson-Cartwright = Duval
Starters all play heavy minutes
Limited contributions (at least offensively) from the bench
Strong rebounding and shot blocking, but so-so ballhandling
Not a lot of 3-point threats (6.9 made 3s per game vs 8.3 for Duke)

Duke has higher KenPom ratings in both offense (#3 vs #15) and defense (#7 vs #70)

Arizona is more experienced than Duke and has been playing well, but within a historically weak Pac-12. They have only 3 wins over ranked teams all season (Arizona State 2x and Texas A&M), and in my view, are coming in to the tournament much less battle tested than squads from the ACC, Big East and Big 12. And perhaps the SEC, too.

[FerryFor50]

Of course Duke had chances to win that game. But we didn't. The point that UVA clearly demonstrated they could compete with us, despite a clear difference in size and talent. And Duke and Arizona have very, very similar profiles:

Ayton = Bagley
Trier = Allen
Rustic = Carter (probably the weakest analogy)
Akins = Trent
Jackson-Cartwright = Duval
Starters all play heavy minutes
Limited contributions (at least offensively) from the bench
Strong rebounding and shot blocking, but so-so ballhandling
Not a lot of 3-point threats (6.9 made 3s per game vs 8.3 for Duke)

Duke has higher KenPom ratings in both offense (#3 vs #15) and defense (#7 vs #70)

Arizona is more experienced than Duke and has been playing well, but within a historically weak Pac-12. They have only 3 wins over ranked teams all season (Arizona State 2x and Texas A&M), and in my view, are coming in to the tournament much less battle tested than squads from the ACC, Big East and Big 12. And perhaps the SEC, too.

At the time they played UVA, Duke's defense was still man to man and getting shredded most nights.

[DarkstarWahoo]

Arizona is more experienced than Duke and has been playing well, but within a historically weak Pac-12.

That's no way to speak of the Conference of Champions!

[Bluedog]

I don't think the committee got the seeding of UK or Arizona wrong; they both had their struggles this season and played unevenly. Before the SEC tournament, UK was likely looking at a 5 or 6 seed.

I think UVA actually benefits from UK and Zona beating the bejeezus out of each other before they have to play the physically taxing defense that UVA plays.

UK did get a 5 seed even after the tournament. As far as UVa benefiting from UK and Zona tiring each other out, I'd agree if it was the same weekend, but they'll have a week's rest before having to play UVa.

[kmspeaks]

Agreed, and I got whipped pretty snarkily by some of the old heads around here for suggesting it. I was also assured that none of the UVa people would agree with my take (and yours). It appears they do agree with us...DarkStar included.

Also, writer Mike DeCourcy agrees, saying this: "The Cavaliers were handed a bracket, particularly their half of the South, that feels a teensy bit like the one the committee hung on undefeated Wichita State in 2014. The message seems to be: You think you're something because you dominated the ACC with only a single defeat in 21 games? Ha! Prove it."

The Wichita 2014 is a great analogy - as a 1 seed, they got 8th seeded Kentucky in the second round. UK had a disappointing season, but they were extremely talented, far more so than Wichita, and this was a screw job to Wichita, who like UVa, had earned better. Right now UVa is a better team than either Arizona or UK, but both of them are more talented, and it's not what UVa earned...

I mean, if Mountain, DeCourcy, and Darkstar agree...who can quibble?

So you want the committee to seed based on projected talent rather than on the court results? Well then Duke should have been the overall #1 and we got screwed. Maybe Kentucky and Arizona should be better, given what we think about their rosters, than they have all year, but their record is still what it is so unless you think they were improperly seeded based on that I'm not really sure what the problem is.

[DarkstarWahoo]

At the time they played UVA, Duke's defense was still man to man and getting shredded most nights.

I was going to post something about how they played zone against UVA, then I went and looked at the game video and lo and behold, you're right. There's a lot of man there. It looks like there may have been a shift to zone in the second half? Bennett certainly had Hunter hanging out around the free-throw line for a while, which he did against Syracuse as well. Was that when K made the shift? I need a Duke mythology expert here.

[FerryFor50]

I was going to post something about how they played zone against UVA, then I went and looked at the game video and lo and behold, you're right. There's a lot of man there. It looks like there may have been a shift to zone in the second half? Bennett certainly had Hunter hanging out around the free-throw line for a while, which he did against Syracuse as well. Was that when K made the shift? I need a Duke mythology expert here.

Duke was tinkering with man and zone most of the first part of the year before K decided to go full zone late in the season. So it's possible they played some zone that game.

[TexHawk]

Let's also play the "Would you trade places with another #1" game?

This is my thinking as well. As a KU fan, if we get that far, I do prefer Auburn/Clemson to UK/Zona, but that's it. Preseason rankings are flawed, but Duke & MSU were 1 and 2 for a reason. UVA's 2/3 (Cincy and Tennessee) were #13 and unranked. UVA obviously couldn't play Clemson, but their other choices for 4/5 were Gonzaga, West Virginia, Wichita State, or Ohio State. One of those teams gave UVA one of their two losses, and advanced metrics think very highly of Gonzaga. Was it a good draw? No, but it's not terrible, and it's balanced by an easier E8 matchup, if they win.

And can someone break down this "Zona is on a mission because they are angry at the NCAA" thing? A- The NCAA hasn't done anything, so can we amend it to "Zona is on a mission because they are angry at the FBI (or ESPN)"? B- In the 5 games since the scandal broke, they lost to Oregon, then beat 5 unranked teams. By KP, those team were 84, 241, 110, 48, 40.

For the record, (imo) Zona has a *much* better case to go far than UK, primarily because the Ayton/Atkins/Trier combo hasn't really played much together, and when they have, they've been pretty good. Just 3 losses all season, I think. But you still have the Sean Miller factor, and maybe I'm just biased because I've seen slow, disciplined teams fluster him the last few tournaments (Xavier, Wichita State, Wisconsin x 2).