NCAA South collector thread (Virginia #1 seed, Cincy #2)

[JasonEvans]

Post your thoughts about the South region here. And don't forget to vote in the poll for who will win the region.

-Jason

[TexHawk]

I understand if people are scared away from UVA and Tony Bennett because of the tourney history, but I have no idea why those same people would run toward Sean Miller.

[FerryFor50]

If UVA ends up playing Cincy, that's gonna be some ugly basketball.

#1 kenpom D vs. #2 kenpom D. Neither team great offensively. Both are physical teams.

[jv001]

Go Hoos!

[Jim3k]

Cats are at full strength. Ayton is no longer a freshman. No one can stop him. Not even Virginia. Plus, Boise is in their Time Zone, a factor which should never be ignored.

[FerryFor50]

Cats are at full strength. Ayton is no longer a freshman. No one can stop him. Not even Virginia. Plus, Boise is in their Time Zone, a factor which should never be ignored.

Ayton is a bit foul prone, so that could be something to watch. But I could see Kentucky taking out Zona.

[ipatent]

But I could see Kentucky taking out Zona.

It'll be a good game if Kentucky plays like it has the past few games.

[FerryFor50]

It'll be a good game if Kentucky plays like it has the past few games.

They've turned it on a bit, for sure. But, they beat a couple teams that had injury issues and then squeaked by Tennessee. So I'm not sold on them yet.

[TexHawk]

They've turned it on a bit, for sure. But, they beat a couple teams that had injury issues and then squeaked by Tennessee. So I'm not sold on them yet.

They also lost by double digits to a 6 seed, one week ago. I guess "turning it on" means beating unranked Georgia, unranked Alabama, and Tennessee. Prior to today, they had only played 4 games against ranked teams all year, and they lost 3 of them.

[FerryFor50]

They also lost by double digits to a 6 seed, one week ago. I guess "turning it on" means beating unranked Georgia, unranked Alabama, and Tennessee. Prior to today, they had only played 4 games against ranked teams all year, and they lost 3 of them.

Georgia was unimpressive. But Alabama was a decent win. However, they were missing a key player.

Tennessee was a great win and UK got hot from outside the past few games. If they can keep up the shooting, they'll be tough.

[ipatent]

But Alabama was a decent win. However, they were missing a key player.

Kentucky has also been missing a player... Jared Vanderbilt.

I don't see them getting by Virginia, but if they continue to hit threes they will be a tough out. Gilgeous-Alexander is playing his best ball of the year and they are playing through him.

[Jim3k]

It'll be a good game if Kentucky plays like it has the past few games.

Heck, I could see Davidson taking out Kentucky. Classic 5-12 game.

[jhmoss1812]

Cats are at full strength. Ayton is no longer a freshman. No one can stop him. Not even Virginia. Plus, Boise is in their Time Zone, a factor which should never be ignored.

If both advance, UVA would play Arizona in Atlanta, not Boise.

[Jim3k]

If both advance, UVA would play Arizona in Atlanta, not Boise.

Heh. I knew when I wrote that, someone would say something, impervious to the obvious. Just to clarify, I was only referring to the first weekend.

And again to state the obvious, in Atlanta, if they both get there, Virginia will have the Time Zone advantage. Unless...Arizona goes straight to Atlanta; in that case they should be diurnally adjusted.

[luvdahops]

Cats are at full strength. Ayton is no longer a freshman. No one can stop him. Not even Virginia. Plus, Boise is in their Time Zone, a factor which should never be ignored.

If Virginia can beat us in Cameron, they can beat Arizona. Wilkins, Salt, Hunter and Diakite are all strong frontcourt defenders. They may not stop Ayton, but they can certainly slow him down.

[gotoguy]

Go Ramblers!

[Jim3k]

If Virginia can beat us in Cameron, they can beat Arizona. Wilkins, Salt, Hunter and Diakite are all strong frontcourt defenders. They may not stop Ayton, but they can certainly slow him down.

Change the FT shooting a little bit (we only hit 5 of 11), you get a different outcome. I don't think the 2 pt UVa-Duke game is a valid predictor for UVa-UofA.

[luvdahops]

Change the FT shooting a little bit (we only hit 5 of 11), you get a different outcome. I don't think the 2 pt UVa-Duke game is a valid predictor for UVa-UofA.

Of course Duke had chances to win that game. But we didn't. The point that UVA clearly demonstrated they could compete with us, despite a clear difference in size and talent. And Duke and Arizona have very, very similar profiles:

Ayton = Bagley
Trier = Allen
Rustic = Carter (probably the weakest analogy)
Akins = Trent
Jackson-Cartwright = Duval
Starters all play heavy minutes
Limited contributions (at least offensively) from the bench
Strong rebounding and shot blocking, but so-so ballhandling
Not a lot of 3-point threats (6.9 made 3s per game vs 8.3 for Duke)

Duke has higher KenPom ratings in both offense (#3 vs #15) and defense (#7 vs #70)

Arizona is more experienced than Duke and has been playing well, but within a historically weak Pac-12. They have only 3 wins over ranked teams all season (Arizona State 2x and Texas A&M), and in my view, are coming in to the tournament much less battle tested than squads from the ACC, Big East and Big 12. And perhaps the SEC, too.

[FerryFor50]

Of course Duke had chances to win that game. But we didn't. The point that UVA clearly demonstrated they could compete with us, despite a clear difference in size and talent. And Duke and Arizona have very, very similar profiles:

Ayton = Bagley
Trier = Allen
Rustic = Carter (probably the weakest analogy)
Akins = Trent
Jackson-Cartwright = Duval
Starters all play heavy minutes
Limited contributions (at least offensively) from the bench
Strong rebounding and shot blocking, but so-so ballhandling
Not a lot of 3-point threats (6.9 made 3s per game vs 8.3 for Duke)

Duke has higher KenPom ratings in both offense (#3 vs #15) and defense (#7 vs #70)

Arizona is more experienced than Duke and has been playing well, but within a historically weak Pac-12. They have only 3 wins over ranked teams all season (Arizona State 2x and Texas A&M), and in my view, are coming in to the tournament much less battle tested than squads from the ACC, Big East and Big 12. And perhaps the SEC, too.

At the time they played UVA, Duke's defense was still man to man and getting shredded most nights.

[DarkstarWahoo]

At the time they played UVA, Duke's defense was still man to man and getting shredded most nights.

I was going to post something about how they played zone against UVA, then I went and looked at the game video and lo and behold, you're right. There's a lot of man there. It looks like there may have been a shift to zone in the second half? Bennett certainly had Hunter hanging out around the free-throw line for a while, which he did against Syracuse as well. Was that when K made the shift? I need a Duke mythology expert here.