MBB: uNC at Duke (3/3 8:15 pm ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[FerryFor50]

How on earth was this thread not started the day after the VT game?

Anyway, big day on Saturday!

A win guarantees Duke gets a double bye. A loss means that Duke can potentially lose its double bye. So, let's win.

Both uNC and Duke are coming off of last second losses, but we can all agree that uNC's loss was much more painful, as it was:

- at home
- on Senior Night
- against a Miami team missing its best player
- featured a 60% FT shooter with ice in his veins, knocking down all 4 of his 1-1 opportunities
- featured a game tying three by their senior captain, followed by a buzzer beating dagger half court 3 by Miami for the win

What does that mean for the game on Saturday? Nothing really. I just like gloating about uNC losing.

Keys to Saturday's game:

- Can the zone contain uNC's three point shooters?
- Will Kenny Williams go off again?
- Can Duke break out of their shooting slump?
- Can Duke beat uNC on the boards this time?

I guess we'll find out!

[gocanes0506]

As long as AOC, Allen, and GT Jr hit a respectable % of outside shots
We don’t go cold for 6+ minutes
and
We don’t turn the ball over

It should be a 10+ point win.

[PackMan97]

How on earth was this thread not started the day after the VT game?

Maybe because they aren't our rival?

Their rivals are SMU, Baylor, Louisville, Penn State and other programs that feel the need to win so badly they will do anything to win regardless of the ethics or legality of their actions.

[Truth&Justise]

A win guarantees Duke gets a double bye. A loss means that Duke can potentially lose its double bye. So, let's win.

Let's just win. Let the chips fall where they may.

LET'S GO DUKE!

[jv001]

Maybe because they aren't our rival?

Their rivals are SMU, Baylor, Louisville, Penn State and other programs that feel the need to win so badly they will do anything to win regardless of the ethics or legality of their actions.

I must spread sporks. Not our rivals any longer. Cheating since the lat 80s.

The game:
Hold the 3 pointers to a low number: Berry-46%, Williams-41%, Berry-37% and Johnson-36%. This uncheat team is more like former Duke teams than our own.
Keep them off the offensive boards. We must block out.
Limit fast beak points.
Hold our turnovers down. That helps with the fast break points.
Play smart and don't let the shot clock run down and have to force shots. That helps with the fast break points.
Please no 5-10 minute stretches of not scoring.
Make the FTs.

Do all this and we may have a 82-50 win.

GoDuke!

[ndkjr70]

Completely not worried.

I would say for the first time in my life as a Duke fan, I'm going into this game 100% expecting a win. We're a better team. We've got better scorers. We've got Grayson's senior night. We're not going to get swept by UNC. There's no way that this Duke team loses to UNC.

[jv001]

Completely not worried.

I would say for the first time in my life as a Duke fan, I'm going into this game 100% expecting a win. We're a better team. We've got better scorers. We've got Grayson's senior night. We're not going to get swept by UNC. There's no way that this Duke team loses to UNC.

Win if we have to cheat, oh, that's the other team. 9F GoDuke!

[DaleDuke7]

I feel like the key point in this game is going to be rebounding. UNC is a very good rebounding team, and we gave up 20 offensive boards to them last time. I think if we can keep them in the 10-12 range on the offensive boards, we’ll win. If we give up more than that, I think UNC will have a great chance to win. Of course, rebounding isn’t the only thing that matters, but I feel like it’s a key point.

75-71 Duke

[uh_no]

I feel like the key point in this game is going to be rebounding. UNC is a very good rebounding team, and we gave up 20 offensive boards to them last time. I think if we can keep them in the 10-12 range on the offensive boards, we’ll win. If we give up more than that, I think UNC will have a great chance to win. Of course, rebounding isn’t the only thing that matters, but I feel like it’s a key point.

75-71 Duke

rebounding and turnovers. that's what cost us in a game we should have won.

[left_hook_lacey]

Anybody seen an early line yet?

[Kedsy]

Last game against UNC, our defensive rebounding percentage was 57.4% and our defensive turnover percentage was 3.1%, and still we lost by only four points.

In our last five games:

DUKE DEFENSIVE REBOUNDING PERCENTAGE
Va Tech (1): 89.3%
Clemson: 70.7%
Louisville: 76.2%
Syracuse: 78.4%
Va Tech (2): 82.8%

DUKE DEFENSIVE TURNOVER PERCENTAGE
Va Tech (1): 17.3%
Clemson: 19.2%
Louisville: 20.7%
Syracuse: 26.2%
Va Tech (2): 18.2%

So there's reason for optimism.

[tbyers11]

Anybody seen an early line yet?

KenPom and Sagarin both have Duke by 7. I'd guess the opening line will be 7.5 or 8

[rsvman]

If Trent and Allen continue missing open threes, it will be a long night. Otherwise, I think we win without too much trouble.

Remember, the last time we played them we were in our m2m defense. Last time UNC played against a decent 2-3 zone was at Syracuse, and the game was winnable for the home team but for some untimely mistakes down the stretch.

I think our 2-3 zone is better than Syracuse's, so I think we are in good shape. Need to keep an eye on Williams and Berry outside. Need to cut down on turnovers. Need to always be aware of the fast break, even off made shots.

[UrinalCake]

Our full-court zone press has been good at creating turnovers and slowing down the other team’s offense. I don’t expect them to turn it over a ton, but it will put more pressure on their offense than the m2m we played last time against them. Also, our zone is actually better at defending the three than our m2m, since we don’t give up the drive-and-kick as easily, however we have gaping holes in the corners especially on whichever side Bagley is guarding. So that’s something to look for.

Also Pinson did a great job fronting Bagley and preventing him from catching the ball. VT showed the formula for clogging the lane by helping off our guards. Can we adjust?

[Duke79UNLV77]

Is this the greatest disparity in NBA talent in our favor in the history of the rivalry? Does unc even have an NBA player? Berry is a great college guard and clutch, but he's small, not amazingly quick, has surprisingly low assist numbers, and plays at a position where the NBA is loaded with talent. Maye may have a Ryan Kelly-esque career trajectory.

Conversely, is this the greatest experience disparity in unc's favor in the history of the rivalry?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Is this the greatest disparity in NBA talent in our favor in the history of the rivalry? Does unc even have an NBA player? Berry is a great college guard and clutch, but he's small, not amazingly quick, has surprisingly low assist numbers, and plays at a position where the NBA is loaded with talent. Maye may have a Ryan Kelly-esque career trajectory.

Conversely, is this the greatest experience disparity in unc's favor in the history of the rivalry?

I hate to say it, but UNC as a whole is clearly greater than the sum of the parts. To me, this team has played some excellent basketball in the ACC despite their lack of NBA talent.

Also, I love players like Maye (his development from freshman to junior years is incredible) and Pinson (the ultimate glue guy but does everything but score at a high rate. A rich man's Tyler Thornton). Berry is a just a damn solid basketball player.

I don't like UNC, but I have a hard time disliking a lot of their year's players (I mean, is there a Nate Britt-equivalent on this team?).

[devildeac]

I hate to say it, but UNC as a whole is clearly greater than the sum of the parts. To me, this team has played some excellent basketball in the ACC despite their lack of NBA talent.

Also, I love players like Maye (his development from freshman to junior years is incredible) and Pinson (the ultimate glue guy but does everything but score at a high rate. A rich man's Tyler Thornton). Berry is a just a damn solid basketball player.

I don't like UNC, but I have a hard time disliking a lot of their year's players (I mean, is there a Nate Britt-equivalent on this team?).

Team/program "hatred" > individual parts?

[Hancock 4 Duke]

As long as AOC, Allen, and GT Jr hit a respectable % of outside shots
We don’t go cold for 6+ minutes
and
We don’t turn the ball over

It should be a 10+ point win.

I personally believe we need all three of those guys in at the same time, along with Javin and Wendell/Carter down low to maximize our offensive potential without conceding too much on defense.

[TruBlu]

Conversely, is this the greatest experience disparity in unc's favor in the history of the rivalry?

unc starts:
2 - 3 year players*
2 - 4 year players*
1 - 5 year player*

* Cannot classify them as Juniors, Seniors, and Graduates. Who knows when/if they started going to classes.

[MrPoon]

Probably worth mentioning that Bagley got hurt in the UNC game and we lost the rebounding battle later in the game. I like our chances with a fully healthy Bagley for a full game. Someone here more aware probably knows the play it happened and when, regardless UNC pulled away in the second half when the rebound margin switched to UNC.