Marvin Bagley III Knee Vigil

[Furniture]

Furniture , I assume that's your comment that you are 'concerned about the kid'.? I.E., K didn't say that part, is that correct?

K said it. Sorry about that.

[arydolphin]

More from K on Bagley after tonight's game (per @DavidHaleESPN):

"It's a day to day thing. Marvin has a problem or else he would play. He's getting better. The thing is, it's not a structural problem. But if we weren't concerned about him having more injury, he'd play. He's not ready. He's getting closer. I don't know when it'll happen. I'm not going to push him."

[heyman25]

Though not nearly as extreme, this is starting to have a similarity to Lonzo Ball being out for a minor injury. Strained MCL for Ball on the Lakers.He has now missed 12 games.
http://www.nba.com/lakers/news/18020...-injury-update

I don't think Bagley has as severe an injury as Ball. Over the years Duke has always kept injury reports a secret to fans and the media. In this age of transparency, I would like Duke basketball to share more information. If they don't I will still be waiting to see how Bagley meshes with this much better team. Carter has bloomed to where he has a better all around game than Marvin.Bolden is getting his legs back.DeLaurier is kind of like Brian Davis not a scoring threat but a Havlicek hustle player.

I forgive Grayson and Trevon for their excessive bad passes, but Duke can not waste possessions in March with hero ball. Duval and Allen go for alley oop passes that are bad decisions.If the play is not there pull up and pass accurately.

[Oriole Way]

I hope Bagley comes back this season. But I honestly think the team can win a national championship even without him, barring further injuries of course.

At this point, I'd be fine with him coming back for the ACC tournament. I don't think UNC can beat us at home with the way Allen and Carter are playing, how Duval is focusing more on the defensive end, and with DeLaurier and the bench guys really growing into their roles. There will be an acclimation period with Bagley's return, given how ball-dominant he is on the offensive end, and how poor a defender he is. And given how much the team dynamic has changed since he last played. Bring him off the bench for his first game back, then start him the rest of the way. Hopefully he gets comfortable within the much improved defense.

[subzero02]

Allen making wide open 3s subsequent to a wrist injury and Duval not playing like we have 200 possessionso each game have helped us on offense. Our major improvement has been on defense and that is much more difficult to analyze. Based on some of the plays I have seen from Allen, picking up the ball handler in transition has been a point of emphasis. Limiting turnovers and transition opportunities has done wonders for our defensive rating as well. WE WILL BE MUCH BETTER WITH BAGLEY.

[Chillduck]

For all of those knocking Bagley’s defense, we are playing a zone now. He is perfect for this defense with his length, athleticism, and rebounding ability. We did pretty well earlier in the year with him playing in the zone. To be a national championship team, we need him. I look forward to this version of Grayson working with Marvin.

[flyingdutchdevil]

For all of those knocking Bagley’s defense, we are playing a zone now. He is perfect for this defense with his length, athleticism, and rebounding ability. We did pretty well earlier in the year with him playing in the zone. To be a national championship team, we need him. I look forward to this version of Grayson working with Marvin.

Yes, he has the tools to be a good defender. No, he is not a good defender in the zone. Bagley is often out of position. He doesn't recover well in the zone.

To me, there is no question the team is better defensively without Bagley. Defensively.

Offensively, and as a team, we are better with Bagley.

But I do not think this defensive renaissance is solely because of zone. It's because we're replacing Bagley with two defenders who are engaged and understand the system moreso than Bagley (Marques and Javin).

[Troublemaker]

WE WILL BE MUCH BETTER WITH BAGLEY.

I can't see how that would be true (but am of course rooting for you to be correct). I'm more hoping that we can maintain this level of play when Marvin is back or perhaps improve minimally. I don't see the pathway for large-scale improvement with Marvin back.

The fact of the matter is: Grayson as the #1 option offensively, Wendell as the #2 option, and Gary as the #3 option is perfectly fine and indeed is enviable offensive firepower to the rest of the country. Probably only Villanova would look at that and think they could do better. When Marvin is present, are we really becoming more efficient offensively, or are we just re-distributing usage among several greatly efficient options already, without becoming more efficient overall as a team? That said, I do think we'll become slightly more efficient offensively with Marvin back as long as Grayson continues to hunt for his shot and doesn't bend the knee to the Bagley postup. (Grayson's gravity when he has his shot going opens up the offense so much for his teammates.)

But here's the rub. Can Marvin play the wing in the zone close to as well as Javin plays it? Because if Marvin only improves the offense minimally but then doesn't play zone wing nearly as well as Javin, then we're talking about a net subtraction from the team.

When Marvin's back, I'll be watching how well he plays in the zone.

[NYBri]

Weird to be having a discussion about whether the team is better without the PoY.

Don’t remember encountering a vigil thread on DBR like this.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Weird to be having a discussion about whether the team is better without the PoY.

Don’t remember encountering a vigil thread on DBR like this.

Well, facts don't really lie. Our impressive defense over the last 4 games is due to a) no Bags and b) commitment to the zone.

We may have to face the fact that Bagley is a better version of Jabari: excellent offensive player, great rebounder, sub-par (at best) defender.

[elvis14]

I think we all really like what we have seen that last 4 games and we have seen each game be better than the last. Frankly we are afraid that Marvin will break it. In golf when you make swing changes you often get worse before you get better. That might happen with Marvin and that's OK as long as the end result is that we are better after the adjustment period.

The commitment to the zone and our improvement on the defensive end of the court are really obvious. We don't want to give those improvements back. Like others, I'll be watching Marvin closely to see how he does. The other change that we've seen is Grayson becoming the primary ball handler (PG) and Duval playing more off the ball (SG). That has really stabilized the offense. Plus our ball movement has been great which has lead to some really good looks. Grayson Allen started shooting in rhythm again and it's been fantastic. Marvin doesn't pass much. The ball goes in and he has 1 thought, score. He's so good that it was OK for a while. As teams started to figure out Marvin some (be physical with him and force him to his right), it became less OK.

So what am I hoping for? First, a healthy Marvin Bagley. Second, an active Marvin Bagley on the defensive end of the floor. Third a more well rounded player on the offensive end that shoots when he should and passes when he should (like passing out of double teams to open shooters). What I'd also like to see is a coaching staff that'll pull him and coach him if he struggles with defense or doesn't share the ball.

All that being said, our ceiling is higher with MB and I want to reach that higher level (which is not the roof, BTW).

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think we all really like what we have seen that last 4 games and we have seen each game be better than the last. Frankly we are afraid that Marvin will break it. In golf when you make swing changes you often get worse before you get better. That might happen with Marvin and that's OK as long as the end result is that we are better after the adjustment period.

The commitment to the zone and our improvement on the defensive end of the court are really obvious. We don't want to give those improvements back. Like others, I'll be watching Marvin closely to see how he does. The other change that we've seen is Grayson becoming the primary ball handler (PG) and Duval playing more off the ball (SG). That has really stabilized the offense. Plus our ball movement has been great which has lead to some really good looks. Grayson Allen started shooting in rhythm again and it's been fantastic. Marvin doesn't pass much. The ball goes in and he has 1 thought, score. He's so good that it was OK for a while. As teams started to figure out Marvin some (be physical with him and force him to his right), it became less OK.

So what am I hoping for? First, a healthy Marvin Bagley. Second, an active Marvin Bagley on the defensive end of the floor. Third a more well rounded player on the offensive end that shoots when he should and passes when he should (like passing out of double teams to open shooters). What I'd also like to see is a coaching staff that'll pull him and coach him if he struggles with defense or doesn't share the ball.

All that being said, our ceiling is higher with MB and I want to reach that higher level (which is not the roof, BTW).

Nice post (except the golf analogy. That went over my head ).

I like you're expectations for Bagley. I truly believe he can play more within a team offensively. He's still our most efficient offensive player (even with OG Grayson back). However, I don't think he's going to be anywhere near Javin (or even Bolden) defensively. I just don't think he gets defense. A lot of freshman don't get defense. I think Marvin is one of them.

I hope that when Marvin comes back, Coach K continues to play Javin a lot. Because his defense has been outstanding (well, minus his propensity to foul). Also, our offense is still crazy elite with OG, Carter, and Trent.

[jv001]

I can't see how that would be true (but am of course rooting for you to be correct). I'm more hoping that we can maintain this level of play when Marvin is back or perhaps improve minimally. I don't see the pathway for large-scale improvement with Marvin back.

The fact of the matter is: Grayson as the #1 option offensively, Wendell as the #2 option, and Gary as the #3 option is perfectly fine and indeed is enviable offensive firepower to the rest of the country. Probably only Villanova would look at that and think they could do better. When Marvin is present, are we really becoming more efficient offensively, or are we just re-distributing usage among several greatly efficient options already, without becoming more efficient overall as a team? That said, I do think we'll become slightly more efficient offensively with Marvin back as long as Grayson continues to hunt for his shot and doesn't bend the knee to the Bagley postup. (Grayson's gravity when he has his shot going opens up the offense so much for his teammates.)

But here's the rub. Can Marvin play the wing in the zone close to as well as Javin plays it? Because if Marvin only improves the offense minimally but then doesn't play zone wing nearly as well as Javin, then we're talking about a net subtraction from the team.

When Marvin's back, I'll be watching how well he plays in the zone.

I know it's only a few games, but I'm impressed how well Jack White plays in the zone, plus he's a terrific rebounder. I wouldn't have been able to say that several games back but after watching him play, he's got my attention. In the game last night, I followed him when he didn't have the ball on offense and he is very quick and can jump quickly. He knows where to be in the zone and was talking on defense. A great job by Coach K getting him in the rotation while MBIII is out. I'm sure his minutes will go down when Marvin returns, but he's making the most of his opportunity right now. GoDuke!

[moonpie23]

I know it's only a few games, but I'm impressed how well Jack White plays in the zone, plus he's a terrific rebounder. I wouldn't have been able to say that several games back but after watching him play, he's got my attention. In the game last night, I followed him when he didn't have the ball on offense and he is very quick and can jump quickly. He knows where to be in the zone and was talking on defense. A great job by Coach K getting him in the rotation while MBIII is out. I'm sure his minutes will go down when Marvin returns, but he's making the most of his opportunity right now. GoDuke!

this...i spent a few minutes last night JUST watching Jack White....he is getting better and better....

[BD80]

this...i spent a few minutes last night JUST watching Jack White...he is getting better and better...

He is quite springy ...

[Jeffrey]

However, I don't think he's going to be anywhere near Javin (or even Bolden) defensively. I just don't think he gets defense. A lot of freshman don't get defense. I think Marvin is one of them.

If true, then how has Bagley repeatedly played very good D in the last 5, or so, minutes of close games?

[CDu]

If true, then how has Bagley repeatedly played very good D in the last 5, or so, minutes of close games?

Yeah, I don’t agree with either the “Bagley isn’t as good defensively as DeLaurier/Bolden” or the “he doesn’t get it on defense” line of thought.

It seems like some folks are now dumping the team’s defensive woes on Bagley. I think the defensive woes were predominantly elsewhere. And predominantly related to man defense as well. I also think that folks are falling prey to the highlight-reel plays DeLaurier has made and inflating his overall defensive performance, while conversely undervaluing Bagley’s vastly superior defensive rebounding skills, and discounting that Bagley is being asked to play ~40 minutes and carry a huge offensive load. And I think folks are forgetting that we were a really good zone team before Bagley got hurt, and Bagley was absolutely a part of that.

And I don’t mean that as a diss to DeLaurier. I love his energy and hustle. I just don’t think he is a better defender than Bagley. Same for Bolden.

[907bluedevils]

The teams the last 4 are not of the same par as the last 4 that bagley has played. The team is better with him on the floor than without. The consensus when we were losing before that was our d and other teams would hit open 3's, hard to see how that would be bagley's fault sitting in the middle of the zone going forward.

[Ian]

Yeah, I don’t agree with either the “Bagley isn’t as good defensively as DeLaurier/Bolden” or the “he doesn’t get it on defense” line of thought.

It seems like some folks are now dumping the team’s defensive woes on Bagley. I think the defensive woes were predominantly elsewhere. And predominantly related to man defense as well. I also think that folks are falling prey to the highlight-reel plays DeLaurier has made and inflating his overall defensive performance, while conversely undervaluing Bagley’s vastly superior defensive rebounding skills, and discounting that Bagley is being asked to play ~40 minutes and carry a huge offensive load. And I think folks are forgetting that we were a really good zone team before Bagley got hurt, and Bagley was absolutely a part of that.

Not blaming all or even most of the bad defense on Bagley, but I think it's pretty obvious both by the eyetest and the advanced metrics that Bolden and Javin are better defenders than Bagley. Neither are the rebounding monster that Bagley is, although both are still soild (Bolden) to very good (Javin) rebounders in their own right.

Neither of course, are close to the offensive player that Bagley is. Which is why Bagley is the superior overall player. But there is no way Duke's defense is as good it has been the last 4 games if the defensive possessions played by Javin/Bolden is replace by Bagley.

[Jeffrey]

It seems like some folks are now dumping the team’s defensive woes on Bagley. I think the defensive woes were predominantly elsewhere. And predominantly related to man defense as well.

Exactly! Unlike the 2015 team, Duval & Carter were not going to figure out how to adequately defend pick & roll by March.