Duke Baseball 2018

[jimsumner]

Jim is right, 2 more wins gets it done.

We have a good ACCT schedule, potentially.

Wake and Louisville play on Wed. If Wake beats Louisville, and then Duke beats Wake Thurs., then on Fri. Louisville doesn't have as much to play for because the game would be meaningless for the ACC tourney. Duke could be a lock to win the pool before that game, in that scenario. Of course Duke would love 2 more wins for our best chance to host, but Louisville could be a little demoralized Friday if they're playing an ACC tourney game with no chance to advance.

Or Duke could save arms in that scenario and pitch #4 starter Friday, basically taking that game off to get more ready for Semis Fri. By having the 11 am Friday game, there's a great chance that game will actually finish on Friday regardless of weather. UNCheat and NC State by comparison play Fri. afternoon/night. Good chance one of those games rolls over into Saturday. If I'm Duke, I think I try to win 2 pool games ASAP since 2 wins gets it done for hosting. But we're not in bad shape here.

Also, Duke going 1-1 is not as bad as it sounds. Every team is playing tourneys this week. Unless they win their conference, they are going to lose one game. So Duke going 1-1 won't look terrible by comparison.

I love Jim's historical references, but the one he mentioned won't happen to Duke. Duke will not get a 1 seed, in our 2nd trip to the tourney in 60 years, and then get shipped to a northern state. ESPN would probably actually prefer having multiple sites in close proximity logistically. Also other teams in the 10-18 range had tough weekends. ECU, for example, lost 2 of 3 to UConn.

Nobody should worry too much about setting up pitching staff for NCAA tourney. They're guaranteed at least 3, maybe 4 or 5 days off after the ACC tourney. Win and win now.

But yep, winning 2 games is of course best outcome. I'm optimistic in DBAP and hope Duke gets a great turnout!

Thanks as always for great analysis Jim!

Thanks for the kind words.

I have talked to some non-affiliated-with-Duke-people-who-know-what-they're-talking-about and shipping Duke off as a one-seed is not off the table. Less than 50/50 but still possible. Maybe one chance in five, maybe one in 10. But not zero.

Which is why a deep run this week is essential to solidifying a host role.

[richardjackson199]

Thanks for the kind words.

I have talked to some non-affiliated-with-Duke-people-who-know-what-they're-talking-about and shipping Duke off as a one-seed is not off the table. Less than 50/50 but still possible. Maybe one chance in five, maybe one in 10. But not zero.

Which is why a deep run this week is essential to solidifying a host role.

Thanks Jim! That's what I was afraid you might say. It's good info to know now though, and could affect our strategy depending on how the week plays out. Duke has a great chance here to go out, seize this, and finish out this great season the right way.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

So Florida drops three games to unranked team, and remains number 1 in the nation.

Duke drops 2 of 3, and drops four spots to 12.

Hmmmmm

[CameronBornAndBred]

So Florida drops three games to unranked team, and remains number 1 in the nation.

Duke drops 2 of 3, and drops four spots to 12.

Hmmmmm

All things considered, I'm way happy with 12th. We've never been that relevant at this point in the season in my lifetime.

[richardjackson199]

All things considered, I'm way happy with 12th. We've never been that relevant at this point in the season in my lifetime.

Duke is #17 in D1 Baseball rankings. (and #12 in Baseball America)

But we control our own destiny, we're basically hosting ACC tourney, and we're in unique position of knowing our most important pool game to throw our best pitchers. Basically we really want to win the one game against whoever wins the game between Louisville and Wake. Beat that team, and we win the pool.

Let's win some games!

[hallcity]

The all-ACC selections are out. Duke placed 0 on the first team, 4 on the second team and 0 on the third team. Meanwhile, Ga. Tech placed 4 on the first team, 1 on the second team and 0 on the third team.

[richardjackson199]

Thanks for the kind words.

I have talked to some non-affiliated-with-Duke-people-who-know-what-they're-talking-about and shipping Duke off as a one-seed is not off the table. Less than 50/50 but still possible. Maybe one chance in five, maybe one in 10. But not zero.

Which is why a deep run this week is essential to solidifying a host role.

The scariest thing about possibly getting shipped as a 1 seed is that Duke's baseball stadium is not up to par when it comes to supporting a regional. If Duke really gets shipped north, that will play into it. Too bad the Bulls will be playing a series in DBAP that week.

The good news is there aren't many northern teams angling to host as a 2 seed. The teams just outside the top 16 are almost exclusively southern/western teams. Expect Minnesota to get a 1 seed. Although St. Johns would get a strong Duke turnout in NYC, St John's is about #30 overall. So they're just on the edge of being a 2 seed. It's hard to imagine a team like that being rewarded with hosting a regional (and hard to imagine one of the lowest 1 seeds being placed with them).

UConn is about the only possibility, and that would be a real bummer.

So I agree that IF Duke can take care of our business this week, getting shipped is pretty unlikely. Of course I wanted to believe impossible.

[richardjackson199]

There is another sobering possibility.

In 2010, Florida State was a one seed and Connecticut a two-seed.

But UConn hosted.

It doesn't happen a lot. But being a top-16 seed does not guarantee hosting.

So, there's a least a chance--insert obligatory Jim Carrey reference here--that Duke could be a one-seed but open at a two-seed like UConn or Minnesota, if the NCAA is determined to gave some snowbelt teams a hosting opportunity.

Not saying this is likely. But it is possible.

So it looks like the last two times a 1 seed was shipped north was FSU and Arizona - both perennial powers. 2 occurrences in a decade. But I def trust you and your sources!

Duke's biggest concern right now is that at #17 currently, the easiest way for the NCAA to avoid controversy is to make Duke a 2 seed somewhere relatively close to home like ECU, Coastal Carolina, South Carolina, or even Georgia or Florida. We don't want that - first weekend regionals are double elimination which favors best team.

Winning this Saturday would take that off the table.

Come on Omaha!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

The scariest thing about possibly getting shipped as a 1 seed is that Duke's baseball stadium is not up to par when it comes to supporting a regional. If Duke really gets shipped north, that will play into it. Too bad the Bulls will be playing a series in DBAP that week.

The good news is there aren't many northern teams angling to host as a 2 seed. The teams just outside the top 16 are almost exclusively southern/western teams. Expect Minnesota to get a 1 seed. Although St. Johns would get a strong Duke turnout in NYC, St John's is about #30 overall. So they're just on the edge of being a 2 seed. It's hard to imagine a team like that being rewarded with hosting a regional (and hard to imagine one of the lowest 1 seeds being placed with them).

UConn is about the only possibility, and that would be a real bummer.

So I agree that IF Duke can take care of our business this week, getting shipped is pretty unlikely. Of course I wanted to believe impossible.

Since Duke has not been in the NCAA Tournament much recently, I am not very familiar with the bracketing process. For NCAA men's lacrosse, there is a bias towards keeping teams close to home - lower seeds are sometimes shifted around slightly to limit the number of games for which teams in the first round have to travel more than X miles (I believe it is 400). Similar in a way to how for NCAA men's basketball they try to keep teams relatively close to home the first weekend if possible. Is this a consideration at all for baseball?

[richardjackson199]

Since Duke has not been in the NCAA Tournament much recently, I am not very familiar with the bracketing process. For NCAA men's lacrosse, there is a bias towards keeping teams close to home - lower seeds are sometimes shifted around slightly to limit the number of games for which teams in the first round have to travel more than X miles (I believe it is 400). Similar in a way to how for NCAA men's basketball they try to keep teams relatively close to home the first weekend if possible. Is this a consideration at all for baseball?

Geography plays a huge role in placement in baseball too. But you can't have 2 teams from same conference in a regional. Consequently, you frequently see ACC and SEC as the 1 and 2 seed teams in a region.

[jimsumner]

D1baseball projects Duke as a two-seed in the Athens regional.

Which would not be a good scenario.

I suspect Duke will project higher than that.


https://d1baseball.com/projections/p...-of-64-may-21/

[CameronBornAndBred]

D1baseball projects Duke as a two-seed in the Athens regional.

Which would not be a good scenario.

I suspect Duke will project higher than that.


https://d1baseball.com/projections/p...-of-64-may-21/

For the uneducated but interested observer (me), how does the tourney work? Is it similar to the pool scenario the ACC had? Single elim? Something else?

[Bob Green]

For the uneducated but interested observer (me), how does the tourney work? Is it similar to the pool scenario the ACC had? Single elim? Something else?

Regionals are double elimination.

https://www.ncaa.com/championships/b...road-to-champs

Regionals | June 1-4, 2018

Regionals for the NCAA Division I Baseball Championship are being played June 1-4, 2018 on 16 campus sites. At each campus site, a four-team, double-elimination tournament will be conducted and the 16 winning teams advance to the Super Regionals.

[richardjackson199]

Regionals are double elimination.

https://www.ncaa.com/championships/b...road-to-champs

Ultimate Goal is Omaha which is Final 8.

As Bob noted, winner of double-elimination regionals moves on to super regionals.

2nd weekend super regionals is a head to head, best of 3 series, hosted by the higher seed. Winner goes to Omaha for the College World Series.

College World Series has 2 four-team pools. Each pool is double elimination. Winner of each pool goes to the championship series. Championship series is head to head, best of 3.

Duke's goal, like every other team's, should be to get to Omaha. I still think this team definitely has the talent to do it. We need our starting pitching and hitting to improve in a hurry. I don't think Duke can get to the championship series, but Omaha would be a magical season.

[Reilly]

For the uneducated but interested observer (me), how does the tourney work? Is it similar to the pool scenario the ACC had? Single elim? Something else?

I have to relearn it every year. A fun way to think of it is that there are four levels. If you lose 2x at any level, you're out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/College_World_Series

First level (regionals - 64 teams): 64 teams split into 16 4-team regional sites. One winner will emerge from each of the 16 sites. The three losers at each of the 16 sites will have lost 2x. The one winner will not have.

Second level (super regionals - 16 teams): At the sweet 16/super regional level, it's 8 mano-a-mano best-of-three series.

Third level (Omaha - 8 teams): That leaves 8 teams that advance to Omaha. The 8 are split into two 4-team double elimination brackets.

Fourth level (champ series - best of 3): The final 2 teams (the winners of the two 4-team double elimination brackets) squaring off in a best-of-three.

[Reilly]

on social media, including @NCAACWS on Twitter

[chrishoke]

No surprise - no Duke regional.

[DU82]

No surprise - no Duke regional.

Here are the sites:

Athens (host school: Georgia)
Austin (Texas)
Chapel Hill (North Carolina)
Clemson, SC (Clemson)
Conway, SC (Coastal Carolina)
Corvallis, OR (Oregon State)
Deland, FL (Stetson)
Fayetteville (Arkansas)
Gainesville (Florida)
Greenville, NC (East Carolina)
Lubbock, TX (Texas Tech)
Minneapolis (Minnesota)
Oxford (Ole Miss)
Raleigh, NC (North Carolina State)
Stanford, CA (Stanford)
Tallahassee, FL (Florida State)

[duke2x]

Here are the sites:

Athens (host school: Georgia)
Austin (Texas)
Chapel Hill (North Carolina)
Clemson, SC (Clemson)
Conway, SC (Coastal Carolina)
Corvallis, OR (Oregon State)
Deland, FL (Stetson)
Fayetteville (Arkansas)
Gainesville (Florida)
Greenville, NC (East Carolina)
Lubbock, TX (Texas Tech)
Minneapolis (Minnesota)
Oxford (Ole Miss)
Raleigh, NC (North Carolina State)
Stanford, CA (Stanford)
Tallahassee, FL (Florida State)

I know it doesn't make anyone at Duke feel better, but we were more than 1 win away from hosting. As I suggested, only 1 site in Texas hurt. Others correctly suggested Coombs/DAP might have hurt being on the bubble.

I will still guess we are in the 17-20 range based on rankings and RPI. Using the lacrosse 400 mile rule as a proxy and without mapping distances on the web, our peers in this "high 2" seed range:

Duke (bus outside GA/SC/NC/Auburn)
Louisville (likely fly, maybe bus to Auburn)
CT (must fly, no ECU)
USF (fly north of FL/GA, no ECU)
TAMU (fly outside TX, not played TTU, TX once)
St. John's (must fly)
UCLA (must fly)

I still think we end up in Conway, which is equivalent to a road trip to an ACC baseball power. Only Duke and Jacksonville could bus to Conway, and I'm not sold on Jacksonville getting a high 2 seed with a 2-8 top 50 record. ECU is a flight on my list for everyone but Duke. With multiple schools at the same RPI level having to fly and Duke/ECU already played once, I think Louisville, St. John's, or another P5 gets that trip.

We'll just have to host the Super Regional instead. I can see us drawing FL or UGA for that one if CCU/ECU is the host.

[duke2x]

As noted to me in a PM, I should not post after midnight. Someone in Austin is probably upset I mistook them for Auburn.