The History of The Pie

[richardjackson199]

Dude, between reclassification and early entry, ain't no way to feel confident about anyone's roster prior to mid-May, at least.

After losing 5 starters, we really better be done with early entry. A re-class would definitely be nice. I def think this Duke team is rolling with who we have now, but I've been wrong before, once or twice if memory serves.

[richardjackson199]

That looks awesome. I am still optimistic about my current pie bet with RJ regarding our OAD’ers - if all four get drafted in the first round then he wins, otherwise I win. Wendell almost threw an enormous wrench into things, although I’m sure RJ would have been happy to pay up in order to get him back.

I do have to say, if I lose then the pie I’ll be sending out will not be nearly as nice as the one pictured above. Probably best that I leave the baking to the professionals 8-)

You better believe Carter returning would have been the best way to lose that bet. I still love this bet too. I don't think any of the mocks have a clue (clearly I don't with this), and expect the unexpected with this one. Draft night will be fun regardless!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

You better believe Carter returning would have been the best way to lose that bet. I still love this bet too. I don't think any of the mocks have a clue (clearly I don't with this), and expect the unexpected with this one. Draft night will be fun regardless!

It could be the proudest moment of K's career!

[left_hook_lacey]

It could be the proudest moment of K's career!

I hope this was sarcasm.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I hope this was sarcasm.

Apologies. I thought it was clear Calipari snark.

[left_hook_lacey]

Apologies. I thought it was clear Calipari snark.

Shew, was hoping so. But these are strange new times we live in.

[UrinalCake]

You better believe Carter returning would have been the best way to lose that bet. I still love this bet too. I don't think any of the mocks have a clue (clearly I don't with this), and expect the unexpected with this one. Draft night will be fun regardless!

For the record, if Carter had come back then I was going to offer to renegotiate our bet to leave Carter out of it (after I was done running around the block and screaming). He obviously would/will be a first round pick, and this bet is really about Trent and Duval.

We’ll have more clarity after the combine and pre-draft workouts. I imagine that Duval will show well and climb into end-of-first-round projections similar to Frank last year, while Trent will slip due to average athleticism. But we’ll see.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Shew, was hoping so. But these are strange new times we live in.

I am old school. These new times terrify me. I still have an onion on my belt.

[richardjackson199]

For the record, if Carter had come back then I was going to offer to renegotiate our bet to leave Carter out of it (after I was done running around the block and screaming). He obviously would/will be a first round pick, and this bet is really about Trent and Duval.

We’ll have more clarity after the combine and pre-draft workouts. I imagine that Duval will show well and climb into end-of-first-round projections similar to Frank last year, while Trent will slip due to average athleticism. But we’ll see.

Thanks! I obviously just never really considered that Wendell might actually return. Not when it came down to decision time.

I think that sounds right regarding Duval and Trent. I like how Jay Wright said after the Final 4 (when asked about DiVencenzo) "I guess I'd make a terrible NBA GM because I have no idea what they're looking for" (or something to that effect). I don't either. But if I was an NBA GM with a first round pick outside the lottery; I'd absolutely burn it on Duval. His upside to be special is tremendous IMO. Duke was just electrifying when Duval was on, and he could be "on" on both ends of the floor. He could be a special point guard, and I think Coach K was right- his shot is improving. If he figures that out, he will be dynamite. He can already score or create in numerous ways at a very high level near the rim, and he can get there with the best of them. Decision making is also something I'd expect can improve with experience. He has the intangibles and potential that can't be taught.

As for Trent, I'd also take him as a late first round pick, but later than Duval. Trent showed from the free throw line and 3 point range that he can shoot and spread the floor. He usually has a good killer instinct that will serve him well in the NBA. He is big enough to play that position in the NBA. His athleticism is what it is, but he showed he can get his shot and put points on the board. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he falls to 2nd round. I'm sure that is the general consensus from those "in the know" whatever that means. I think he could be a good NBA player, with a ceiling of Bradley Beal type. I obviously think he's very late first round talent and potential, but we'll see!

The bakery will be preheating soon just in case.

[richardjackson199]

Since this one won't be decided until the end of next season, here's My Pie Bet with Kaze:

Oh, of course I'm 100% in.

For those who don't know, I proclaimed when Jack White committed to Duke that he would be a rotation player by year 3. I still stand 100% by that. He will be the 8th man. Mark my words.

Shakes on it.

Jack White plays more minutes next season - you win the pie. Joey Baker plays more minutes, I win the pie. (And if Joey Baker redshirts, well then I like your chances! The bet will stand.)

Good luck!

[richardjackson199]

Dude, between reclassification and early entry, ain't no way to feel confident about anyone's roster prior to mid-May, at least.

Jason you were 100% right on. I never saw Joey Baker's reclass coming. I'm really excited about him and obviously think he will factor into our rotation. I hope he plays a key role, because if he does (meaning he's good enough to do so), I think we could be really special.

So now knowing our rotations for next year, I'm withdrawing the pie bet proposal I previously made to you, CDu, and Trouble. I have enough pies in the oven now. I no longer think the cheats are better than us (I have no idea really). But I don't feel like betting on the cheats. I hope you fleece Wheat. 9F

[CDu]

Jason you were 100% right on. I never saw Joey Baker's reclass coming. I'm really excited about him and obviously think he will factor into our rotation. I hope he plays a key role, because if he does (meaning he's good enough to do so), I think we could be really special.

So now knowing our rotations for next year, I'm withdrawing the pie bet proposal I previously made to you, CDu, and Trouble. I have enough pies in the oven now. I no longer think the cheats are better than us (I have no idea really). But I don't feel like betting on the cheats. I hope you fleece Wheat. 9F

Baker’s reclass (I mean, we are debating whether or not he will redshirt or play just 8-12 mpg) seems like an odd reason to pull the bet, but that is fine with me. As I said, I haven’t ever made a bet before on DBR, so I am ok with not doing it here. I do still very much think Duke will be a better team than UNC next year. But I am ok not having a bet to show for it.

[left_hook_lacey]

Jason you were 100% right on. I never saw Joey Baker's reclass coming. I'm really excited about him and obviously think he will factor into our rotation. I hope he plays a key role, because if he does (meaning he's good enough to do so), I think we could be really special.

So now knowing our rotations for next year, I'm withdrawing the pie bet proposal I previously made to you, CDu, and Trouble. I have enough pies in the oven now. I no longer think the cheats are better than us (I have no idea really). But I don't feel like betting on the cheats. I hope you fleece Wheat. 9F

So what's one more? Make it a Baker's dozen!

[UrinalCake]

Jack White plays more minutes next season - you win the pie. Joey Baker plays more minutes, I win the pie.

I feel like both sides need to agree on whether minutes in the exhibition games will count towards this bet. It is likely that either player would play a significant chunk of their total minutes in these games, including the ones in Canada.

[devildeac]

I feel like both sides need to agree on whether minutes in the exhibition games will count towards this bet. It is likely that either player would play a significant chunk of their total minutes in these games, including the ones in Canada.

Good thing we're not having any sort of "cake" bets .

[kAzE]

Since this one won't be decided until the end of next season, here's My Pie Bet with Kaze:

Shakes on it.

Jack White plays more minutes next season - you win the pie. Joey Baker plays more minutes, I win the pie. (And if Joey Baker redshirts, well then I like your chances! The bet will stand.)

Good luck!

So how does this work if either guy gets injured (knocked on wood) for a lengthy duration? Call off the bet?

I feel like both sides need to agree on whether minutes in the exhibition games will count towards this bet. It is likely that either player would play a significant chunk of their total minutes in these games, including the ones in Canada.

I would prefer that exhibition games not count.

[JasonEvans]

On no planet should exhibition games count at all. That would be crazy.

Ok, is the Jack White bet on whether he is "in the rotation" or whether he gets the "8th most minutes" on the team? Cause those two are not necessarily identical. To me, "in the rotation" means they play more than mop up minutes in 90% of the games in which they are available (injury games or other suspension excluded). To me, if a guy even plays just 4 or 5 minutes per game in virtually every ACC game or against big time opponents, they are clearly in the rotation.

So, in 2017-18, Jack White was not "in the rotation." He sat out pretty much every competitive game in the early season and then did not play at all against BC, FSU, or Virginia. He played just 1-2 minutes in a half dozen other ACC contests (generally just playing at the very end of the game in mop up time). He similarly put up DNPs against both Syracuse and Kansas. That's someone not in the rotation. Contrast that with Alex O'Connell who had only one DNP all season (St. John) and played more than 2 minutes in all but four or five games all year. No question he was "in the rotation."

I suspect this will be an easy question to answer. You won't need any specific metric because it will be obvious. I mean, is there anyone who would argue that Goldwire or White (who had very similar DNP and minute profiles) actually were in the rotation last year? Is there anyone who would argue that AOC was not?

Also, it is just my opinion, but I would say that if White gets injured before Thanksgiving then the bet is off. If he plays into December and then gets injured, you would look at his playing time profile in the games in which he was able to play to determine if he was in the rotation at that time. Personally, I think you should appoint a "Special Master" to determine whether JDub is "in the rotation," not just go by average or total minutes played. There are scenarios where the 8th most minutes is not in the rotation and where the 9th most minutes is.

-Jason "just MHO... though I am the guy who invented the notion of the pie bet " Evans

[kAzE]

Ok, is the Jack White bet on whether he is "in the rotation" or whether he gets the "8th most minutes" on the team?

Nah the bet was simply "who plays more total minutes? Jack White or Joey Baker?"

There's no stipulation about being in the rotation or not, although my prediction was that Jack would be the 8th man.

[JasonEvans]

Nah the bet was simply "who plays more total minutes? Jack White or Joey Baker?"

There's no stipulation about being in the rotation or not, although my prediction was that Jack would be the 8th man.

Gotcha... though I think an "in the rotation" bet on Jack would also be fun

[UrinalCake]

Also, it is just my opinion, but I would say that if White gets injured before Thanksgiving then the bet is off.

But how do you define “injured”? If he misses one game, does that count? What if we see him wearing a knee brace on the bench and he doesn’t play, but maybe he wouldn’t have played anyways? Or what if he plays through the injury? There was speculation that he had some sort of minor injury at the start of last season, but nobody knew anything for sure.

My opinion is that for the sake of simplicity, injuries are not factored in. In the worst case scenario where a guy has a season-ending injury, well that’s why they call it gambling.