MLax: 2018 Season

[MCFinARL]

Duke continues to sit at number three in the analyticslacrosse.com rankings and the media poll. The Blue Devils lead the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, and are top five in adjusted offensive efficiency.

McEwen’s overall rankings, like all PWE-based rankings for lacrosse, are a bit mystifying. Denver, which hasn’t beaten anybody, at number two? Loyola, the only other team besides Duke to be top five at both ends of the field, down at number eight? Colgate ahead of Penn and Bucknell? Whatevs ...

Marquette comes to town on Friday night. This year’s Golden Eagles aren’t as good as the last two seasons, but they can score goals in bunches; they came back from down four with 1:30 to go to force OT against Providence last week. They cannot be taken lightly.

This game should be a good test of where Duke is right now in terms of focus, especially on the defensive end. Despite the high ranking and good results, the eye test says the defense can go briefly AWOL at times, and clearing is an adventure against riding teams. Time to get sharp for the post season.

[burnspbesq]

Duke’s RPI took a hit last night when St. Joseph’s beat Penn, 12-11. The Hawks are red hot, having won eight in a row. If they survive the NEC tournament, they will be a dangerous first-round opponent in the NCAA.

The MLL draft is tonight. The consensus is that Justin Guterding will go to Chesapeake at number four, but everything could change if Boston decides to deal the top pick (aka Trevor Baptiste) to address more of its many problems. Peter Conley may go somewhere around the fourth round. He’d be a good fit in Dallas (formerly Rochester), where he would get plenty of step-down opportunities as opposing defenses slide early to Jordan Wolf.

[SCMatt33]

UNC would have to win by 15 goals to make the tournament with a win. The O/U for a ND lax game should never be more than 12. The likely bracket:

Syracuse @ UVA
Duke v. ND

Just to put a bow on this as I was thouroughly confused, the reason for this is that the first tiebreaker (or I guess second since they'd all be 1-1 vs each other) is total goals against in conference play. UNC has currently given up 14 more goals than ND and 12 fewer than UVA. So a win by 15 or more puts them ahead of ND in that category. This leads to either UNC winning the tiebreaker and getting the three seed, or more unlikely, UVA winning the tiebreaker. Once once team wins the tiebreaker, the other will be determined via H2H, not who came in second in the tiebreaker. So it's also theoretically possible for UNC to win by less than 15 and advance if they were to somehow score 27 goals and hand UVA the three seed. Even if they only won 27-26, UVA would get the tiebreaker and the three seed and UNC advances on H2H over ND.

Here's a pretty good write up from UVA blog Streaking the Lawn though they don't go as far as talking about the 27 goal scenario. They also include a tweet that this tiebreak procedure was confirmed by the ACC.

[MCFinARL]

Just to put a bow on this as I was thouroughly confused, the reason for this is that the first tiebreaker (or I guess second since they'd all be 1-1 vs each other) is total goals against in conference play. UNC has currently given up 14 more goals than ND and 12 fewer than UVA. So a win by 15 or more puts them ahead of ND in that category. This leads to either UNC winning the tiebreaker and getting the three seed, or more unlikely, UVA winning the tiebreaker. Once once team wins the tiebreaker, the other will be determined via H2H, not who came in second in the tiebreaker. So it's also theoretically possible for UNC to win by less than 15 and advance if they were to somehow score 27 goals and hand UVA the three seed. Even if they only won 27-26, UVA would get the tiebreaker and the three seed and UNC advances on H2H over ND.

Here's a pretty good write up from UVA blog Streaking the Lawn though they don't go as far as talking about the 27 goal scenario. They also include a tweet that this tiebreak procedure was confirmed by the ACC.

This is SO complicated. If only we could get another team, we could let all six into the tournament with two first round byes.

[SCMatt33]

This is SO complicated. If only we could get another team, we could let all six into the tournament with two first round byes.

I don't think that would make much of a difference. First according to the UVA blog article, they're adding a play-in game next year anyway, but the bigger issue is that a 3-way tie among 5 teams is tough to break, even if it's only for seeding as it will be in the future. Basketball is able to get away with it because there's enough teams where you can use something like record against the top team to break a tie. This would only work for a very specific scenario for lacrosse. If the teams tie at 3-1 or 1-3 and none swept the other, then it's impossible for them to have different records against the remaining two teams. If they all tied at 2-2, it's possible that 1 beat a first placed 3-1 team while the other two beat a 1-3 team, but only in that exact scenario would the basketball situation work. We've seen in football that they go to computer rankings when the ties occur, but they chose to go with something more controllable by the teams here. I'm guessing they went with goals allowed instead of goal differential to disincentivize running up the score in blowouts.

[DST Fan]

This is SO complicated. If only we could get another team, we could let all six into the tournament with two first round byes.

Yes, but the conference is typically very balanced and, with each team playing only a 5-game schedule, isn’t there a good chance that we would have equally complicated tie breakers to determine the byes? However, 6 teams might give the conference an automatic qualifier in the NCAA tournament, but l don’t remember what the rule is on automatic qualifiers.

[chrishoke]

After a lackluster 5-3 lead and half, Duke pours it on in the 2nd to beat Marquette 17-5.

[burnspbesq]

On paper, it looks like an easy win for Duke, 17-5. It was anything but. The Blue Devils led 7-4 with two minutes to go in Q3, then got three in just over a minute and blitzed the Golden Eagles in Q4.

Eight points for Guterding (6G, 2A), and four goals for Robertson. Marquette’s midfield defense was really good, holding Duke’s mids to four goals (Smith 2, Conley, and Seau). Excellent night for Danny Fowler with ten saves and four goals allowed.

Back to C’ville next Friday to take on ND in the ACC tournament semifinals.

[MCFinARL]

Yes, but the conference is typically very balanced and, with each team playing only a 5-game schedule, isn’t there a good chance that we would have equally complicated tie breakers to determine the byes? However, 6 teams might give the conference an automatic qualifier in the NCAA tournament, but l don’t remember what the rule is on automatic qualifiers.

Yes, I think having six teams would give the ACC an automatic qualifier--we had one briefly when ND joined the conference and MD hadn't left yet.

You are probably right that, given the balance, the tiebreakers might be just as complicated with 6 teams as with 5.

[budwom]

I wonder if the ACC would allow another member for lacrosse only? Perhaps it doesn't matter that much, it's workable as it is...

[burnspbesq]

I wonder if the ACC would allow another member for lacrosse only? Perhaps it doesn't matter that much, it's workable as it is...

Utah is as Atlantic-coastal as ND or Louisville. But the real answer is BC, VaTech, and GaTech.

[DST Fan]

Danny Fowler made a couple of point blank saves in the first half last night and he has provided pretty solid goal tending throughout the year. He could be an X factor in the ACC and NCAA tournaments. I don’t recall seeing many goalies who are more aggressive in leaving the cage to go after a loose ball.

[DST Fan]

Utah is as Atlantic-coastal as ND or Louisville. But the real answer is BC, VaTech, and GaTech.

Is there any chance the ACC could poach Loyola? I am not sure that Loyola plays in the Patriot League in any sports other than lacrosse and the school seems to have a history of scheduling ACC teams.

[burnspbesq]

Is there any chance the ACC could poach Loyola? I am not sure that Loyola plays in the Patriot League in any sports other than lacrosse and the school seems to have a history of scheduling ACC teams.

Loyola has been an all-sports-except-football member of the Patriot League since 2013.

[DST Fan]

Loyola has been an all-sports-except-football member of the Patriot League since 2013.

I guess I haven’t been following the Patriot League too closely other than in lacrosse.

[BD80]

Is there any chance the ACC could poach Loyola? ...

So Sister Jean could be at the Conference Championship?

[burnspbesq]

Carolina beats ND, 10-9. The tiebreaker favors ND and UVa. Cheaters’ season is over.

[jimsumner]

So Sister Jean could be at the Conference Championship?

Different Loyola.

[burnspbesq]

Every game involving an ACC team today was a one-goal affair.

Navy beat Cuse 13-12 on a goal by FOGO Joe Varello with 0:00.2 to go.

UVa came from behind to beat UVM, 10-9.

[TKG]

Carolina beats ND, 10-9. The tiebreaker favors ND and UVa. Cheaters’ season is over.

That's a shame.