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  1. #401
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by MCFinARL View Post
    Well, yes, except that--as I noted in my previous post--Duke really does schedule more games than a lot of other teams, and this was especially true a few years ago.

    That being said, Duke's generally high-octane style of offense also has a lot to do with high goal totals.
    I didn't intend to discount your post. It seemed like in most cases the difference was 1-2 games, and, as you noted, it's those other programs' choice whether they schedule as many games as Duke. My question was aimed more at finding out if there was some institutional change to the MLAX schedule that significantly altered the number of games played by all teams such that you would naturally end up with higher career goal totals. So something akin to the NFL going from 14 to 16 game seasons, or the NHL going from 84 to 82 game seasons. Hopefully that makes sense.

  2. #402
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by JetpackJesus View Post
    I didn't intend to discount your post. It seemed like in most cases the difference was 1-2 games, and, as you noted, it's those other programs' choice whether they schedule as many games as Duke. My question was aimed more at finding out if there was some institutional change to the MLAX schedule that significantly altered the number of games played by all teams such that you would naturally end up with higher career goal totals. So something akin to the NFL going from 14 to 16 game seasons, or the NHL going from 84 to 82 game seasons. Hopefully that makes sense.
    Yes, it does, and I'm sorry if i sounded snippy. In terms of institutional change I think the biggest factor would be the movement for more teams to join conferences and hold conference tournaments with AQs. That added an extra layer of games for almost everyone that in the past only a few teams had. The Big Ten, for example, inaugurated its post-season tournament in 2015. The Big East first had a lacrosse tournament in 2014. I don't think there are any NCAA policies that have affected the number of games played.

  3. #403
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by MCFinARL View Post
    Yes, it does, and I'm sorry if i sounded snippy. In terms of institutional change I think the biggest factor would be the movement for more teams to join conferences and hold conference tournaments with AQs. That added an extra layer of games for almost everyone that in the past only a few teams had. The Big Ten, for example, inaugurated its post-season tournament in 2015. The Big East first had a lacrosse tournament in 2014. I don't think there are any NCAA policies that have affected the number of games played.
    That makes sense. Has the NCAA Tournament format remained more-or-less the same as far as number of games? At least for historically successful programs, that could also make a difference.

  4. #404
    Number of games matters, but so does tempo. McEwen keeps a stat that he calls “pace,” that he says is equivalent to KenPom’s AdjT. Of the four teams remaining, only Yale is in the upper quartile. Duke and Albany aren’t far behind. Maryland is 68 out of 71. The average Duke game has 16 more possessions than the average Maryland game. This can be a very big deal come Saturday. Duke will press out defensively, trying to speed the Terps up, get the ball on the ground, and create transition opportunities.

  5. #405
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    thanks for your continued sharing of knowledge, burnspbesq.

  6. #406
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by burnspbesq View Post
    Number of games matters, but so does tempo. McEwen keeps a stat that he calls “pace,” that he says is equivalent to KenPom’s AdjT. Of the four teams remaining, only Yale is in the upper quartile. Duke and Albany aren’t far behind. Maryland is 68 out of 71. The average Duke game has 16 more possessions than the average Maryland game. This can be a very big deal come Saturday. Duke will press out defensively, trying to speed the Terps up, get the ball on the ground, and create transition opportunities.
    I've never played the game, so I know so much less than a number of other sports. It seems like Duke is always strong on faceoffs relative to their competition (I may be wrong). Is that a significant factor in the tempo/possession numbers? A faceoff in LAX seems so much more important than, say, hockey or soccer.

  7. #407
    Quote Originally Posted by JetpackJesus View Post
    I've never played the game, so I know so much less than a number of other sports. It seems like Duke is always strong on faceoffs relative to their competition (I may be wrong). Is that a significant factor in the tempo/possession numbers? A faceoff in LAX seems so much more important than, say, hockey or soccer.
    Face off pct is considered a pretty important stat in hockey - so yes, given the length of the average possession, logic would dictate that its even more significant in LAX. Then again, while I know logic...I don't really know lacrosse, so maybe someone around here who does could verify, or challenge, your assessment.

  8. #408
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by JetpackJesus View Post
    I've never played the game, so I know so much less than a number of other sports. It seems like Duke is always strong on faceoffs relative to their competition (I may be wrong). Is that a significant factor in the tempo/possession numbers? A faceoff in LAX seems so much more important than, say, hockey or soccer.
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Face off pct is considered a pretty important stat in hockey - so yes, given the length of the average possession, logic would dictate that its even more significant in LAX. Then again, while I know logic...I don't really know lacrosse, so maybe someone around here who does could verify, or challenge, your assessment.
    Faceoffs in lacrosse are extremely important. In theory, if a team has a good enough FOGO and the offense doesn't turn the ball over, their opponent could go the whole game without a possession. Not that you ever see that but it is possible. Faceoffs, however, don't have anything to do with pace of play (number of possessions in a game) but do factor into how many possessions a team may have relative to their opponent.

  9. #409
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Location
    Arlington, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post

    Can anyone give a breakdown of Maryland and how we match up with them?
    Not expert enough to provide my own breakdown, but today's analysis from Quint Kessenich on Insidelacrosse.com is interesting and seems to confirm my instinct that the teams are very close in some key factors (like goalie ability, face offs, etc.). The key difference between the teams, as Burnspbesq noted above, is tempo--Maryland likes to play slowly and grind it out; Duke likes to move faster. So the team that can make the other one play at its tempo may have an advantage.

    Quote Originally Posted by yancem View Post
    Faceoffs in lacrosse are extremely important. In theory, if a team has a good enough FOGO and the offense doesn't turn the ball over, their opponent could go the whole game without a possession. Not that you ever see that but it is possible. Faceoffs, however, don't have anything to do with pace of play (number of possessions in a game) but do factor into how many possessions a team may have relative to their opponent.
    Faceoffs may be very interesting in this game, as the teams' cumulative season percentages are close, with Maryland having a slight edge--.524 to .516. The play of the wings will probably be important.

    As important as faceoffs are, though, every now and then a team can overcome a losing percentage if they are good enough at causing turnovers or the opponent helps them out with bad shots that aren't properly backed up. When Duke beat Denver at the beginning of the year, the excellent Trevor Baptiste won 23 of 30 faceoffs--but Duke somehow still managed to win the game. There can't have been many times when a team has lost 76% of the faceoffs and still won.

  10. #410
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    I did a bit of unrealistic math comparing the faceoff advantage in lacrosse to the jump ball in basketball.

    In a basketball game a team that wins the first jump has about a 50/50 chance of getting an extra possession. If they shoo 50% effective percentage they may gain in the neighborhood of 1 point per game.


    In lacrosse if we assume a simple and ridiculous scenario that team A wins 100% of the faceoffs and that both teams score on 50% of possessions after that with no turnovers except Team B gaining possession on team A's non-scoring possessions (and back and forth) then after 100 faceoffs team A should have a 67 to 33 scoring advantage. (Somebody check my math because heaven knows I won't.)

    So in basketball team A may gain a point per game while in lacrosse team A doubles the score. Silly, and the faceoff wins and scoring percentages are lower, but it shows that faceoffs are tremendously important in lacrosse.

  11. #411
    Hope I didn't use up all my long-distance result-influencing abilities on JMU and BC today.

  12. #412
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    Washington, D.C.
    The forecast tomorrow is for 90 degrees and Gillette Stadium has a synthetic surface. The heat could be a factor and midfield depth is often important on Memorial Day weekend. Coach Danowski has the luxury of two solid midfields, which I expect he will try to use to Duke’s advantage.

  13. #413
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by camion View Post
    I did a bit of unrealistic math comparing the faceoff advantage in lacrosse to the jump ball in basketball.

    In a basketball game a team that wins the first jump has about a 50/50 chance of getting an extra possession. If they shoo 50% effective percentage they may gain in the neighborhood of 1 point per game.


    In lacrosse if we assume a simple and ridiculous scenario that team A wins 100% of the faceoffs and that both teams score on 50% of possessions after that with no turnovers except Team B gaining possession on team A's non-scoring possessions (and back and forth) then after 100 faceoffs team A should have a 67 to 33 scoring advantage. (Somebody check my math because heaven knows I won't.)

    So in basketball team A may gain a point per game while in lacrosse team A doubles the score. Silly, and the faceoff wins and scoring percentages are lower, but it shows that faceoffs are tremendously important in lacrosse.
    Maybe an easier way to envision your "100% face-off win" scenario for the basketball crowd. Imagine a basketball team gets the ball back every time they make a basket rather than the other team taking it out of bounds.

  14. #414
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    Maybe an easier way to envision your "100% face-off win" scenario for the basketball crowd. Imagine a basketball team gets the ball back every time they make a basket rather than the other team taking it out of bounds.
    IIRC (dubious) the original rule for hoops had a jump ball after each bucket.

  15. #415
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    IIRC (dubious) the original rule for hoops had a jump ball after each bucket.
    You are correct and they ruined the game when they took it out!

  16. #416
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    IIRC (dubious) the original rule for hoops had a jump ball after each bucket.
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    You are correct and they ruined the game when they took it out!
    If you say so. Were you there to post complaints about the decision? LGD GTHc!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    https://ecogreen.greentechaffiliate.com

  17. #417
    Quote Originally Posted by OZZIE4DUKE View Post
    If you say so. Were you there to post complaints about the decision? LGD GTHc!
    Of course and am damn proud of that time in Springfield!

  18. #418
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    You are correct and they ruined the game when they took it out!
    What was your opinion when they removed the bottoms of the peach baskets?

    [redacted] them and the horses they rode in on.

  19. #419
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    What was your opinion when they removed the bottoms of the peach baskets?

    That was a good change. I supported that one after falling off the ladder...😡

  20. #420
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    Maybe an easier way to envision your "100% face-off win" scenario for the basketball crowd. Imagine a basketball team gets the ball back every time they make a basket rather than the other team taking it out of bounds.
    What I was referring to was the importance of a good face off man in lacrosse. It could be like make it take it in bball

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