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Thread: Bracketology

  1. #81
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    What we should be rooting for is for Michigan St to beat Purdue twice, once @MSU and once in the Big 10 tourney. That should send Purdue down to the 2-seed line and Michigan St back up to the 1-seed line but out West since Duke would have the head-to-head win on MSU. (Now, obviously, Duke has to take care of business ourselves, which probably includes winning the ACC tourney, in order to be a 1 seed.)

    East (Boston) South (Atlanta) Midwest (Omaha) West (L.A.)
    1. Villanova 1. Virginia 1. Duke 1. MSU
    2. Purdue
    x. Arizona
    4. Kentucky

    Others have mentioned this before, but preseason rankings should be respected when filling out your brackets. Nate Silver wrote an article about that here. Overachievers like Purdue (preseason #20) tend to regress to the mean in the NCAA tournament. Although it's more a mixed bag, underachievers like Arizona or Kentucky also tend to regress to the mean.

    If you had told me before the season started that our two preseason co-favorites, MSU and Arizona, would be stuck in the same bracket out West, all the way across the overall bracket from Duke; that Duke would be a #1 seed with Purdue our #2 seed; that the #1 seed we'd be paired with would be unranked UVA (even though I knew they were underrated); I would have taken that in a heartbeat. Note: we also avoid the Kentucky landmine here; the Wildcats (preseason #5) are bound to be a much better team at the end of the season than they were at the beginning.

    So, that's what I'm rooting for. Nothing too specific or anything ;-) (Gawd, I love talking bracketology. It's so stupid in many ways, but I can't help it).
    Arizona scares me more than most. They had a few early losses, got called out by their coach for not playing hard, and now seem back on track. They've won 6 in a row, 15 of the last 16, and are now 18-4. They are talented and finally playing up to pre-season expectations.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    What we should be also hoping for is that UVa loses a conference game, and we win out and win the ACC tournament. If that happens, we may very well jump them to be the #1 seed in the South. Both teams would have 3 losses, we would have the long win streak and an ACC title, and certainly the better overall resume due to a much stronger OOC resume. Of course, that's if we win out.

    But there are multiple ways to get a 1 seed not out West.
    Do you think that Duke needs to both meet and then beat UVA in the ACC Tournament to leapfrog them (provided they get the one regular season loss you mentioned), or simply that they lose, no matter the opponent? Obviously, a head-to-head win would be great, but I'm not sure if you are even thinking that additional detail needs to happen.

  3. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Note: we also avoid the Kentucky landmine here; the Wildcats (preseason #5) are bound to be a much better team at the end of the season than they were at the beginning.
    One small nit to pick about Kentucky. While you are correct that teams who underperform relative to preseason expectations tend to "revert to the mean" once we hit March, I'm not so sure we should automatically dump Kentucky into that box because their preseason expectations were almost exclusively based on the quality of their freshmen. MSU and AZ, two others who have underperformed a bit, had much more established players in their rotation. But, Kentucky's struggles have been because their freshmen are having trouble playing together and that may not be a "revert to the mean" kind of thing.

    -Jason "FWIW, I am very aware that the same could be said about Duke... but our freshmen are performing up to expectations quite nicely" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #84
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    One small nit to pick about Kentucky. While you are correct that teams who underperform relative to preseason expectations tend to "revert to the mean" once we hit March, I'm not so sure we should automatically dump Kentucky into that box because their preseason expectations were almost exclusively based on the quality of their freshmen. MSU and AZ, two others who have underperformed a bit, had much more established players in their rotation. But, Kentucky's struggles have been because their freshmen are having trouble playing together and that may not be a "revert to the mean" kind of thing.

    -Jason "FWIW, I am very aware that the same could be said about Duke... but our freshmen are performing up to expectations quite nicely" Evans
    They are also a lot less talented than Duke's teams. I forget if it's Goodman who said it, but someone said, "Duke is 10 points better than UK right now" in the pre-season. I don't think that's changed.

    Anywho, gimme UK before UVa, 'Nova, or MSU. Those last three teams are the most worrisome to me.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Trying to follow Lunardi's logic with the Tarheels.
    He has them as a 4 seed. The following are seeded lower.
    Miami (6), Lousiville (6), NCSU (11), FSU (9), VT (12)

    Each of those lower seeds are at a higher standing in the ACC than the Tarheels. What am I missing?

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  6. #86
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Trying to follow Lunardi's logic with the Tarheels.
    He has them as a 4 seed. The following are seeded lower.
    Miami (6), Lousiville (6), NCSU (11), FSU (9), VT (12)

    Each of those lower seeds are at a higher standing in the ACC than the Tarheels. What am I missing?

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
    Lunardi didn't go to class, either. That's why he's doing "bracketology", whatever the hell that is.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  7. #87
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Trying to follow Lunardi's logic with the Tarheels.
    He has them as a 4 seed. The following are seeded lower.
    Miami (6), Lousiville (6), NCSU (11), FSU (9), VT (12)

    Each of those lower seeds are at a higher standing in the ACC than the Tarheels. What am I missing?

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology
    Conference standings in the presence of an unbalanced schedule are not terribly relevant. UNC is higher in RPI and Pomeroy standings than any of those programs.

  8. #88
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    Jul 2008
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    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    One small nit to pick about Kentucky. While you are correct that teams who underperform relative to preseason expectations tend to "revert to the mean" once we hit March, I'm not so sure we should automatically dump Kentucky into that box because their preseason expectations were almost exclusively based on the quality of their freshmen. MSU and AZ, two others who have underperformed a bit, had much more established players in their rotation. But, Kentucky's struggles have been because their freshmen are having trouble playing together and that may not be a "revert to the mean" kind of thing.

    -Jason "FWIW, I am very aware that the same could be said about Duke... but our freshmen are performing up to expectations quite nicely" Evans
    On the other hand, there is precedent for a talented but inexperienced bunch of UK freshmen figuring it out in March. In 2014, UK looked more or less mediocre, at least by their standards, throughout the season. However, they still made a run to the Final Four as an 8 seed. I'm not saying I'd rather face Nova, Purdue, or MSU over UK, but there is still a lot of talent in Lexington, even if it's not quite as much as some years of the recent past.
    Who needs a moral victory when you can have a real one?

  9. #89
    I have a hard time seeing MSU as a #1 seed right now. I know we don't look at RPI much but the Selection Commitee still do, and MSU is 23 on the RPI, with just 1 win against the RPI top 50 (U of No Class), contrast their resume to Auburn and Rhode Island, and both have comparable records, better SOS, and each has 4 top 50 RPI wins.

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    One small nit to pick about Kentucky. While you are correct that teams who underperform relative to preseason expectations tend to "revert to the mean" once we hit March, I'm not so sure we should automatically dump Kentucky into that box because their preseason expectations were almost exclusively based on the quality of their freshmen. MSU and AZ, two others who have underperformed a bit, had much more established players in their rotation. But, Kentucky's struggles have been because their freshmen are having trouble playing together and that may not be a "revert to the mean" kind of thing.

    -Jason "FWIW, I am very aware that the same could be said about Duke... but our freshmen are performing up to expectations quite nicely" Evans
    Looking at their roster, Kentucky was overrated pre-season. UK's rotation is 6 freshmen and 2 sophomores, and of those eight, only one was RSCI top 10 (and he (Knox) was 10th; if Diallo had been ranked by all services, he might have been 9th or 10th, but then Knox would have been 11th, so still only one RSCI top 10 freshman).

    Duke, on the other hand, has a senior and three top 10 freshman (all ranked better than Kentucky's top recruit). So, the two teams have similar youth (though due to Grayson Allen, Duke is the more experienced team between the two -- UK doesn't have any non-walk-ons older than sophomore), but really shouldn't be lumped in the same bucket, talent-wise or expectation-wise.

    Quote Originally Posted by COYS View Post
    On the other hand, there is precedent for a talented but inexperienced bunch of UK freshmen figuring it out in March. In 2014, UK looked more or less mediocre, at least by their standards, throughout the season. However, they still made a run to the Final Four as an 8 seed. I'm not saying I'd rather face Nova, Purdue, or MSU over UK, but there is still a lot of talent in Lexington, even if it's not quite as much as some years of the recent past.
    That UK team had five (!) top 10 freshman, plus a sophomore who had been top 10. The talent difference between the 2014 Kentucky team and this year's team is immense.

  11. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    Nothing to do with UVA’s defense, but would we rather be a 1 in the West or a 2 in the east?
    I just want to avoid being in the same pod with UNC. I don't care about the rest personally, we've gotta run the gamut no matter where we start.

  12. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    Lunardi didn't go to class, either. That's why he's doing "bracketology", whatever the hell that is.
    My general disdain for Lunardi and all things Bracketological is a matter of record on this board.

    Give me 15 minutes and the AP, ESPN, RPI, Pomeroy, etc., and I could put together something just as compelling.
    Let's go Duke!

  13. #93
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    My general disdain for Lunardi and all things Bracketological is a matter of record on this board.

    Give me 15 minutes and the AP, ESPN, RPI, Pomeroy, etc., and I could put together something more compelling and more logical.
    FIFY, because you are a humble soul.

  14. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I just want to avoid being in the same pod with UNC.
    I cannot say this for certain, but I don't think Duke and UNC have ever been in the same quadrants of the bracket. The NCAA attempts to spread out conference opponents anyway and really protects top tier teams from having to play someone from their conference. The odds they would put Duke and Carolina in the same bracket are very, very small.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  15. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I cannot say this for certain, but I don't think Duke and UNC have ever been in the same quadrants of the bracket. The NCAA attempts to spread out conference opponents anyway and really protects top tier teams from having to play someone from their conference. The odds they would put Duke and Carolina in the same bracket are very, very small.
    I think the post means the first two round “pod” by locations - so we don’t have to deal with UNC fans.
       

  16. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I cannot say this for certain, but I don't think Duke and UNC have ever been in the same quadrants of the bracket. The NCAA attempts to spread out conference opponents anyway and really protects top tier teams from having to play someone from their conference. The odds they would put Duke and Carolina in the same bracket are very, very small.
    #!@Y!~%! I just realized you are talking about pods, not brackets. You don't want the Heels getting placed in the same 1st/2nd round sites as Duke. Duke will likely be placed in Charlotte. I wonder if that would be Virginia's pod of preference as well. Pittsburgh and Nashville would seem to be the only other places remotely close to UVA. I need to consult google maps...
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  17. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr. synellinden View Post
    I think the post means the first two round “pod” by locations - so we don’t have to deal with UNC fans.
    Correct.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    #!@Y!~%! I just realized you are talking about pods, not brackets. You don't want the Heels getting placed in the same 1st/2nd round sites as Duke. Duke will likely be placed in Charlotte. I wonder if that would be Virginia's pod of preference as well. Pittsburgh and Nashville would seem to be the only other places remotely close to UVA. I need to consult google maps...
    Without looking at a map (honor system) I'd wager Pitt might be closer to Charlottesville geographically, but Charlotte definitely is closer to Charlottesville phonetically.
    Let's go Duke!

  19. #99
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Looking at their roster, Kentucky was overrated pre-season. UK's rotation is 6 freshmen and 2 sophomores, and of those eight, only one was RSCI top 10 (and he (Knox) was 10th; if Diallo had been ranked by all services, he might have been 9th or 10th, but then Knox would have been 11th, so still only one RSCI top 10 freshman).

    Duke, on the other hand, has a senior and three top 10 freshman (all ranked better than Kentucky's top recruit). So, the two teams have similar youth (though due to Grayson Allen, Duke is the more experienced team between the two -- UK doesn't have any non-walk-ons older than sophomore), but really shouldn't be lumped in the same bucket, talent-wise or expectation-wise.



    That UK team had five (!) top 10 freshman, plus a sophomore who had been top 10. The talent difference between the 2014 Kentucky team and this year's team is immense.
    All good points, but UK is still good enough to win at WVU and to blowout Louisville 90-61. Those games don't represent their average outing, of course, but they're still not a team I'd like to see in the Sweet 16 (or earlier). They still had the #2 class behind us in 2017 (including six 5-stars) and they still have one of the 5 most talented rosters in the country in terms of raw talent. (The way I think about that is if everybody on every roster in college basketball were a senior, who would be the 5 best teams? [Of course, they're obviously not seniors, and there's a limit to how much they can learn in one season as freshmen, so it's tricky, but I err on the side of respecting the talent.])

  20. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    #!@Y!~%! I just realized you are talking about pods, not brackets. You don't want the Heels getting placed in the same 1st/2nd round sites as Duke. Duke will likely be placed in Charlotte. I wonder if that would be Virginia's pod of preference as well. Pittsburgh and Nashville would seem to be the only other places remotely close to UVA. I need to consult google maps...
    Charlottesville to Charlotte - 233 miles
    Charlottesville to Pittsburgh - 185 miles
    Charlottesville to Nashville - 475

    But, it is worth noting that there are no good direct car routes from CVille to Pittsburgh, so Charlotte is closer in driving distance (270 miles versus 285 miles). Will be interesting to see what the committee does in terms of sending the Cavs to a friendly locale.

    -Jason "of course, none of this matters unless Carolina is a #4 seed or higher... which is certainly not a given at this point" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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