While I was researching the above answer, it occurred to me that if transition scoring is so much more efficient than halfcourt scoring, it's possible we're not entirely focusing on the right things when we evaluate Duke's D. I went back to Hoop-Math and assembled the following table with some Duke transition defense information:
Code:
Year %transition trans eFG% trans %3att trans 3pt% Pom D Rank
2018 20.8% 54.5% 39.2% 34.6% 86
2017 23.8% 58.4% 28.0% 32.3% 47
2016 24.4% 55.7% 30.6% 30.2% 86
2015 23.5% 52.2% 30.6% 25.9% 11
2014 22.1% 54.5% 30.7% 24.1% 86
2013 23.9% 51.7% 32.7% 33.3% 26
2012 22.1% 58.4% 27.3% 33.3% 79
I'm not entirely sure what to make of this data, but I have a few semi-random observations:
- note that the eFG% is on initial transition shot attempt. I couldn't find any data on transition putbacks or transition free throws.
- Our two best defensive teams in the period had the two best opposing transition eFG%. That said, if this year's team let up an initial transition shot attempt eFG% of 52.2% like the 2015 team did, it would only be a 0.73 points per game improvement in opposing scoring (or about 1 point per 100 possessions). Which isn't close to enough to explain the difference in the 2013 or 2015 defenses and this year's defense. Though a one point improvement in opposing scoring per 100 possessions would move our current KenPom defensive rank from #86 to #67.
- this year's team is giving up by far the highest percentage of opposing transition three-point attempts, and also the highest transition three-point shooting percentage. This is in transition, though, not in the halfcourt. Are there not enough guys getting back in transition D? Are they not getting back fast enough? Are they running to the wrong spot? Or is it just bad luck which could even out over time?
- this year's team gives up the lowest percentage of transition opportunities of any team in the period. Possibly because we're so good at offensive rebounding. Whatever the reason, since transition scoring is so much more efficient than halfcourt scoring, this can only be a good thing, right? But does it mean that we have more potential to end up with a good defense because we can limit transition opportunities? Or, since our overall dRtg is so mediocre, does the fact that we're already limiting transition opportunities mean our halfcourt defense is even worse than we think it is? Or both?
I don't really know the answers to any of these questions, but I thought it was interesting to think about.