Tracking Duke’s Defense

[Kedsy]

Duke defensive stats vs. Rhode Island:

2-point%: .409
3-point%: .368
%threes: 30.2%
eFG%: 45.2%

TO%: 19.0%
DR%: 67.5%
FT Rate: 20.6%
dRating: 0.91

A/to: 1.15:1
%assisted: 60.0%
Block%: 1.6% (2.3% of twos)

Opposing fast break points: 6 (9.7% of RI's points)

Efficiency difference: -13.3 (opposing three efficiency better than opposing two efficiency).

We only had one block, and our defensive rebounding was OK but didn't rise to the level of good. Plus they shot the highest three-point percentage of any of our opponents for the last 12 games (second-highest in 18 games). And still our defense DOMINATED them. First half unadjusted dRtg was 0.77 (adjusted, that's just over 0.70).

Hopefully we'll keep it up, moving forward (or even improve; crazy to believe, but there's room).

[CDu]

Don't know where to post this, but here are a couple of analytics notes after the game against Rhode Island:

Duke is now #2 in KenPom behind Villanova, passing Virginia. Duke is also the only team in the Top 10 in both adjusted offensive (3) an defensive (7) efficiency.

On FiveThirtyEight, Duke is now favored to make it to the Elite Eight and Final Four from the Midwest. For the Sweet 16, prior to the MSU-Syracuse game, Duke has a 61% chance of advancing and a 39% chance of making past the Elite Eight. Kansas is next at 29% and followed by MSU at 22%. Those numbers will all change by the end of the weekend, of course.

Duke has looked pretty good in the first two games of this tournament and the numbers are bearing that out. It doesn't mean that Duke will make it all the way, but it's possible.

Those probabilities are meaningless right now because there are so many potential outcomes that don’t involve MSU and Kansas in the Regional. Duke’s numbers will go down and Kansas’s and MSU’s numbers will go up if they both win this weekend. Right now Duke’s numbers are inflated because there is probably a 30% chance we face Syracuse and a not 0% chance we face Seton Hall.

We will still be the favorites against any team in this region. But I would guess that our probability will be very similar to Kansas’s.

[uh_no]

We only had one block, and our defensive rebounding was OK but didn't rise to the level of good. Plus they shot the highest three-point percentage of any of our opponents for the last 12 games (second-highest in 18 games). And still our defense DOMINATED them. First half unadjusted dRtg was 0.77 (adjusted, that's just over 0.70).

Yup. The final number was still very very good (was expected to be 100...was what, an 85?) and that was WITH playing lackadaisical defense in the second half (Which i'm not particularly concerned about...the game was over just a couple mintues into the half)

THe big step in difficulty happens now.

[godins]

We only had one block, and our defensive rebounding was OK but didn't rise to the level of good.

We had two, but the refs called a goaltend on Javin's smooth block off the glass. The refs are out to get us!

[MChambers]

We had two, but the refs called a goaltend on Javin's smooth block off the glass. The refs are out to get us!

I’m amazed that we had only one block. Seemed like Carter was the Landlord, altering many shots.

[rsvman]

I’m amazed that we had only one block. Seemed like Carter was the Landlord, altering many shots.

Oh, we altered a lot of shots. They missed a lot of shots because Carter, Bagley, and Bolden were there. A shot doesn't have to actually get blocked to help us out a lot defensively. RI was hearing footsteps all game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Oh, we altered a lot of shots. They missed a lot of shots because Carter, Bagley, and Bolden were there. A shot doesn't have to actually get blocked to help us out a lot defensively. RI was hearing footsteps all game.

And it's likely the height intimidation caused a few fumbled bumbled catches inside by RI bigs...

[DavidBenAkiva]

Those probabilities are meaningless right now because there are so many potential outcomes that don’t involve MSU and Kansas in the Regional. Duke’s numbers will go down and Kansas’s and MSU’s numbers will go up if they both win this weekend. Right now Duke’s numbers are inflated because there is probably a 30% chance we face Syracuse and a not 0% chance we face Seton Hall.

We will still be the favorites against any team in this region. But I would guess that our probability will be very similar to Kansas’s.

And after Kansas defeated Seton Hall, here are the current 538 probabilities in the Midwest Bracket:

Make it to the Sweet 16
Duke, Kansas: 100%
Michigan State: 83%
Clemson: 53%
Auburn: 47%
Syracuse: 17%

Make it to the Elite 8:
Kansas: 78%
Duke: 61%
Michigan State: 36%
Clemson: 12%
Auburn: 10%
Syracuse: 3%

Make it to the Final 4:
Duke: 37%
Kansas: 36%
Michigan State: 21%
Clemson: 3%
Auburn: 2%
Syracuse: <1%

Also, I just realized that it's entirely possible that the Midwest Region could feature 3 ACC Teams and Kansas. How odd. Not very good odds, though.

[arnie]

And after Kansas defeated Seton Hall, here are the current 538 probabilities in the Midwest Bracket:

Make it to the Sweet 16
Duke, Kansas: 100%
Michigan State: 83%
Clemson: 53%
Auburn: 47%
Syracuse: 17%

Make it to the Elite 8:
Kansas: 78%
Duke: 61%
Michigan State: 36%
Clemson: 12%
Auburn: 10%
Syracuse: 3%

Make it to the Final 4:
Duke: 37%
Kansas: 36%
Michigan State: 21%
Clemson: 3%
Auburn: 2%
Syracuse: <1%

Also, I just realized that it's entirely possible that the Midwest Region could feature 3 ACC Teams and Kansas. How odd. Not very good odds, though.

I think Clemson makes it - IMHO, Auburn is a fraud in more ways than one.

[CDu]

And after Kansas defeated Seton Hall, here are the current 538 probabilities in the Midwest Bracket:

Make it to the Sweet 16
Duke, Kansas: 100%
Michigan State: 83%
Clemson: 53%
Auburn: 47%
Syracuse: 17%

Make it to the Elite 8:
Kansas: 78%
Duke: 61%
Michigan State: 36%
Clemson: 12%
Auburn: 10%
Syracuse: 3%

Make it to the Final 4:
Duke: 37%
Kansas: 36%
Michigan State: 21%
Clemson: 3%
Auburn: 2%
Syracuse: <1%

Yep, so if MSU wins today, we'll fall below Kansas in terms of probability of making the Final Four. Though either Duke or MSU would be favored to beat Kansas in the Elite 8. But because a Duke/MSU game is likely to be a near 50/50 proposition (maybe 60/40 Duke), it cuts too deeply into each team's chances of reaching the Elite 8.

Also, I just realized that it's entirely possible that the Midwest Region could feature 3 ACC Teams and Kansas. How odd. Not very good odds, though.

Looks like about a 9% chance of happening per 538. Not great odds, but odds are that at least 2 teams will be there (60% chance of at least one of Clemson and Syracuse making it).

[DavidBenAkiva]

And after Kansas defeated Seton Hall, here are the current 538 probabilities in the Midwest Bracket:

Make it to the Sweet 16
Duke, Kansas: 100%
Michigan State: 83%
Clemson: 53%
Auburn: 47%
Syracuse: 17%

Make it to the Elite 8:
Kansas: 78%
Duke: 61%
Michigan State: 36%
Clemson: 12%
Auburn: 10%
Syracuse: 3%

Make it to the Final 4:
Duke: 37%
Kansas: 36%
Michigan State: 21%
Clemson: 3%
Auburn: 2%
Syracuse: <1%

Also, I just realized that it's entirely possible that the Midwest Region could feature 3 ACC Teams and Kansas. How odd. Not very good odds, though.

Syracuse zoned out Michigan State (or would it be more accurate to say that MSU zoned out against Syracuse?), which makes for a very interesting Sweet 16 matchup in Omaha.

Per 538, Duke's odds prior to the Syracuse-MSU game:

Elite Eight: 61%
Final Four: 37%
National Championship Game: 21%
National Champions: 14%

And Duke's odds after the Syracuse-MSU game:

Elite Eight: 85%
Final Four: 50%
National Championship Game: 27%
National Champions: 17%

Omaha is about 3 hours by car away from Lawrence, Kansas. I'm sure it will be a strong anti-Duke crowd for the Sweet 16, but not quite as loud without Michigan State fans in attendance.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I think Clemson makes it - IMHO, Auburn is a fraud in more ways than one.

You were spot on with this post. Clemson did to Auburn what Virginia did to Clemson.

Three ACC Teams and Kansas in Omaha on Friday. I imagine the crowd will be very pro-Kansas.

[yancem]

Yep, so if MSU wins today, we'll fall below Kansas in terms of probability of making the Final Four. Though either Duke or MSU would be favored to beat Kansas in the Elite 8. But because a Duke/MSU game is likely to be a near 50/50 proposition (maybe 60/40 Duke), it cuts too deeply into each team's chances of reaching the Elite 8.



Looks like about a 9% chance of happening per 538. Not great odds, but odds are that at least 2 teams will be there (60% chance of at least one of Clemson and Syracuse making it).

Odds are suddenly looking really good!!!

[Truth&Justise]

Great article from Yahoo about three games -- spread out over a decade -- that culminated in Duke's switch to zone.

The three games:
- Team USA's loss to Greece in the 2006 FIBA World Championship
- Team USA's one-point win over Spain in a friendly just before the 2010 FIBA World Championship
- Duke's 2015 loss at home to Miami

This article does a great job linking these games and showing how Coach K's work with Jim Boeheim and Mike Hopkins eventually translated into success for Duke. It's just another way Coach K's time with Team USA continues to pay dividends.


Also, it confirms I'm a basketball junkie: I vividly remember watching all three games. None feel like they were all that long ago.

[Kedsy]

Duke defensive stats vs. Syracuse (NCAAT):

2-point%: .553
3-point%: .308
%threes: 25.5%
eFG%: 52.9%

TO%: 26.4%
DR%: 54.8%
FT Rate: 33.3%
dRating: 1.07

A/to: 0.75:1
%assisted: 48.0%
Block%: 3.9% (5.3% of twos)

Opposing fast break points: 2 (3.1% of Syracuse's points)

Efficiency difference: 8.3 (opposing two efficiency better than opposing three efficiency).

Defensive rebounding was even worse than the first UNC game (i.e., atrocious), two-point percentage allowed was poor, and only 2 blocks (just 3 in last two games). But we turned them over to the tune of 26.4% (40% in the first half), which is amazing. Overall, our worst defensive performance in awhile, especially considering that our first half ppp was 0.90 (meaning our 2nd half ppp was 1.24, against a mediocre offense). But survive and advance and all that, I guess.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Duke defensive stats vs. Syracuse (NCAAT):

...

Overall, our worst defensive performance in awhile, especially considering that our first half ppp was 0.90 (meaning our 2nd half ppp was 1.24, against a mediocre offense). But survive and advance and all that, I guess.

Well, can't we assume that Syracuse practices against zone defense every day? Wouldn't that lead to some more challenging stats?

[Kedsy]

Well, can't we assume that Syracuse practices against zone defense every day? Wouldn't that lead to some more challenging stats?

Maybe, except our dRating in the first Syracuse game was 0.68 (that's 39 points per 100 possessions better than last night).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Well, can't we assume that Syracuse practices against zone defense every day? Wouldn't that lead to some more challenging stats?

It's hard to know what to make of the game against Syracuse. Jim Boeheim had about a full week to prepare for that game. Duke played poorly, though, and still won. That says a lot. Michigan needed a prayer to make it to the Sweet 16 and now appears to be in great shape to make it to at least the Final 4. I haven't seem a team look better than Michigan did against Texas A&M and they very nearly weren't playing in that game. It's a crazy, crazy, crazy tournament and you just want to be in it as long as you can.

[Kedsy]

Duke defensive stats vs. Kansas:

2-point%: .515
3-point%: .361
%threes: 52.2%
eFG%: 52.9%

TO%: 23.0%
DR%: 56.4%
FT Rate: 21.7%
dRating: 1.09

A/to: 1.11:1
%assisted: 66.7%
Block%: 4.3% (9.1% of twos)

Opposing fast break points: 0 (0% of Syracuse's points)

Efficiency difference: -2.7 (opposing three efficiency a little better but about the same as opposing two efficiency).

Our adjusted dEff was about 0.97, so we can't really say it was bad defense, but it clearly wasn't good enough. Our defensive rebounding was terrible and percentage made of both 3-point and 2-point shots was higher than what I'd hope is acceptable. Ironically, the best thing we did was cause turnovers, and the only other thing we did particularly well was prevent fast break points. Considering the mediocrity of our D tonight and the even more mediocre performance on offense, it's amazing we got within a rimmed-out shot of winning the game.

We finished the season #9 in KenPom's defensive rankings, so overall I think our D was a success. Coach K's decision to go all in on zone was as inspired as it was surprising, and bringing the D from a 108th ranking on January 9 to top 10 was downright amazing.



Also, Uh_No, I would still love to see an updated version of this graph of Duke's dRank vs. freshman minutes, if you don't mind and get a few minutes. Thanks.

[uh_no]

Also, Uh_No, I would still love to see an updated version of this graph of Duke's dRank vs. freshman minutes, if you don't mind and get a few minutes. Thanks.

yep. I was thinking about that earlier.

thanks for doing all your work on this all year. great stuff, as always.