2017 - 2018 Hot Stove Baseball

[weezie]

Yeech. What a jackwad...

I hear that when a player is hit by a baseball in the fat part of his back, it often leave the imprint of the ball stitches.

[CDu]

They get a potential ace starter at rookie salary, so good on them.

[duke74]

Judge, Sanchez and now Stanton? (Can he pitch or play third? )

And apparently none of the Yankees' top prospects included. (Makes sense in a salary dump).

https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2017/12...ankees-marlins

[Duke79UNLV77]

Salary dump or not, couldn’t they get more for the MVP? Or, at least, please don’t trade him to the Yankees. Jeter doing this deal reminds me of McHale setting up the Celtics for a championship.

[chris13]

Who would have thought Arod is turning out to be a better person than Jeter.

[duke74]

Salary dump or not, couldn’t they get more for the MVP? Or, at least, please don’t trade him to the Yankees. Jeter doing this deal reminds me of McHale setting up the Celtics for a championship.

Not sure about the leverage Jeter had (other than that ridiculous threat to surround Stanton with a lousy team). Had to dump salary - I think that the Yanks had all the leverage here.

Yanks now are in salary dump mode to get below that "tax" threshold. We thought Ellsbury and Gardner would also be going for that reason...(I haven't seen the final terms.)

Have a crowded outfield. Hicks in CF, Judge moves to left and Stanton in RF? Clint Frazier (Miller trade) as 4th OF.

Torres (Chapman trade) takes over at second with Didi at SS. Bird at 1st, Sanchez at C. 3B (Machado next year?)

Still need to solidify SP. (CC?)

And my Mets still silent...geesh.

[Duke79UNLV77]

Not sure about the leverage Jeter had (other than that ridiculous threat to surround Stanton with a lousy team). Had to dump salary - I think that the Yanks had all the leverage here.

The Yankees weren’t the only team to whom Stanton would accept a trade, and I imagine any of those teams could find room for him.

[Olympic Fan]

Not sure about the leverage Jeter had (other than that ridiculous threat to surround Stanton with a lousy team). Had to dump salary - I think that the Yanks had all the leverage here.

Yanks now are in salary dump mode to get below that "tax" threshold. We thought Ellsbury and Gardner would also be going for that reason...(I haven't seen the final terms.)

Have a crowded outfield. Hicks in CF, Judge moves to left and Stanton in RF? Clint Frazier (Miller trade) as 4th OF.

Torres (Chapman trade) takes over at second with Didi at SS. Bird at 1st, Sanchez at C. 3B (Machado next year?)

Still need to solidify SP. (CC?)

And my Mets still silent...geesh.

We have to wait and see the full parameters of the deal, but unless Brett Gardner is included, I suspect he's the CFer and Hicks is the fourth OF. I'll be curious to see where Ellsbury stands -- the speculation I read had him included in the deal.

Losing Castro hurts -- he's been very solid for his two seasons in New York. Torres is one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball, but I'm not sure he'll be ready to be a fulltime starter next season, especially coming off an injury that forced him to miss the second half of last season.

And third base remains an issue. Headley is under contract (although I've also seen speculation that he may be part of the Stanton deal). Todd Frazier, who did a good job there late last season is a free agent.

And, like everybody, we need starting pitching. With so much money committed to Stanton, I think we're less likely to address that need on the free agent market.

Don't get me wrong -- I'm ecstatic -- Stanton, Judge and Sanchez back-to-back-to-back in the lineup? Wow!

It will also be interesting to see how the deal impacts the NEXT free agent market. With Machado, Harper and maybe Kershaw expected to be up for grabs, will the Yankees shell out for ANOTHER huge deal?

BTW: ESPN is reporting that several Yankee prospects WILL be included in the deal. I reserve the right to gripe later, if we gave up anybody really good.

[Olympic Fan]

Okay, it looks like Jorge Guzman and Jose Devers are the two prospects going to Miami in the deal.

Guzman is a Grade A prospect, rated No. 7 in the Yankee system (which is not bad -- the Yankee system is deep). He's a 21-year-old RHP from the Dominican who can top 100 mph on the radar gun. So far, he has not been impressive in performance at the Class A level. But a lot of hard-throwers take time to command their gift. There's a good chance he becomes a flame-throwing reliever at some point.

Devers is a lessor prospect -- not in the top 40 Yankee prospects. But he's young -- an 18-year-old shortstop with above-average speed and good defensive skills. So far, he's shown little ability to hit the ball ... but he's young.

If that's it -- Castro, Guzman and Devers -- I have to celebrate the deal. It's going to cost a lot, but, hey, it's not my money.

And while I was looking at the Yankees next year, I forgot Michael Andujar at third base. He's a real possibility.

[jimsumner]

If I were Greg Bird, I would be turning back flips. He may never see a left-handed starter.

[Blue in the Face]

This is a great trade for the yankees, but it really makes me wonder what the Marlins are doing in the major leagues. If you're that desperate to eliminate payroll, I think you're kind of in the wrong business. Kind of curious what the other offers were - the Cards were going to take on less of Stanton's salary than the yankees are, I assume any other team was similarly offering to take on less money.

[Olympic Fan]

This is a great trade for the yankees, but it really makes me wonder what the Marlins are doing in the major leagues. If you're that desperate to eliminate payroll, I think you're kind of in the wrong business. Kind of curious what the other offers were - the Cards were going to take on less of Stanton's salary than the yankees are, I assume any other team was similarly offering to take on less money.

Apparently, the Cardinals and Giants may have offered more -- both teams told local media that they had deals in place. In both cases, Stanton vetoed the deal.

They Yankees will pay approximately $250-260 million of Stanton's 10-year salary (he has an opt out after three years). The Marlins will chip in $35 million or so.

That was always part of any deal -- eat more of Stanton's money and give up less prospects. Or eat less money and give more/better prospects.

[weezie]

So... looks more than likely that Bryce Harper ends up a dodger eventually...

[weezie]

Alan Trammell and Jack Morris, Hall of Famers!

[DU82]

Alan Trammell and Jack Morris, Hall of Famers!

Well, at least one of them raises the average HOFer at their position.

[Olympic Fan]

Well, at least one of them raises the average HOFer at their position.

That quote reminds me of something that Bill James wrote in his first edition of The Politics of Glory: How the Hall of Fame Works

He devoted a long chapter to a minute examination as to the Hall of Fame credentials of Phil Rizzuto -- who was the Jack Morris/Alan Trammel of his day.

In the end, James came down on the side of not admitting Rizzuto (although he admitted that the three years Rizzuto missed serving his country during WWII might have changed the equation).

Before the book was published, Rizzuto was admitted by the Veteran's Committee.

James' comment was: "Well, he's not the worst player in the Hall of Fame."

As the chief advocate for Morris on this board, I'm gratified to see him admitted. I understand why some of you will go on thinking it was a mistake -- and that's fine -- but I hope the segment that thought it was "ridiculous" to argue for Morris will appreciate that an awful lot of serious baseball people disagree with you.

PS As happy as I am to see Morris and Trammell admitted, I thought the most deserving candidate on the committee's list was Marvin Miller.

[Duke79UNLV77]

James' comment was: "Well, he's not the worst player in the Hall of Fame."

Morris will have the highest career ERA ever in the HOF by 0.10.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/15/ja...n-baseball-era

"But if Morris gets in, the bar for Hall of Fame pitchers will be demonstrably lower, and his election will serve as a slight to numerous contemporaries such as Saberhagen, Stieb, Dwight Gooden, Orel Hershiser and David Cone. Win totals aside, all have far fuller résumés than Morris from a Hall standpoint, better run prevention combined with Cy Young awards and their own shares of records and postseason heroics. They’ll deserve an equally thorough airing in this context."

Other than durability, I think all of the pitchers listed were better than Morris. I listed Hershiser's statistics above. Hershiser's 6 full pre-injury years included being top 3 in ERA 5 times and top 4 in Cy Young 4 times. For his career, he had a significantly better ERA and more consistent postseason heroics than Morris.

[jimsumner]

I would have to think Mike Mussina's case just got a lot stronger.

[rasputin]

I would have to think Mike Mussina's case just got a lot stronger.

Tommy John is more qualified than Morris or Mussina, IMO.

[Olympic Fan]

Morris will have the highest career ERA ever in the HOF by 0.10.

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/15/ja...n-baseball-era

"But if Morris gets in, the bar for Hall of Fame pitchers will be demonstrably lower, and his election will serve as a slight to numerous contemporaries such as Saberhagen, Stieb, Dwight Gooden, Orel Hershiser and David Cone. Win totals aside, all have far fuller résumés than Morris from a Hall standpoint, better run prevention combined with Cy Young awards and their own shares of records and postseason heroics. They’ll deserve an equally thorough airing in this context."

Other than durability, I think all of the pitchers listed were better than Morris. I listed Hershiser's statistics above. Hershiser's 6 full pre-injury years included being top 3 in ERA 5 times and top 4 in Cy Young 4 times. For his career, he had a significantly better ERA and more consistent postseason heroics than Morris.

Nice use of one selective stat. ERA is high, but durability (innings pitched), and whether you like it or not, wins, work in his favor.

To use a more useful number, let's look at Bill James' Hall of Fame Standards ranking which he developed 20 years ago to determine who should and shouldn't get into the HOF.

Morris does rank below quite a few non-HOF pitchers. But he's also ahead of at least 13 HOF starting pitchers, including such guys as Herb Pennock, Dazzy Vance, Bob Lemon, Lefty Gomez, Red Ruffing, Ted Lyons and Rube Marquard. According to James' ranking, the worst pitcher in the HOD is Jesse Haines.

If you believe in WAR (I don't), Morris has a better career WAR than HOFers Lefty Gomez, Dizzy Dean, Catfish Hunter, Jack Chesbro and the aforementioned Mr. Haines (who is almost certainly the worst starting pitcher in the HOF).