2017 - 2018 Hot Stove Baseball

[Blue in the Face]

First cold morning here, so might as well get the stove going to warm things up.

The Nippon Ham Fighters have announced that they well post two-way star Shohei Otani this off-season. Under the new CBA, he's giving up a ton of money by coming now instead of waiting 2 more years, and teams will be severely limited in what they can offer him, so it will be interesting to see who he signs with. The Rangers and Yankees have the most international free agent bonus pool money available, but the difference between them and the lowest teams is only about $3 million, so not much in the context of a long mlb career (or even in the context of marketing opportunities depending on what market he's in). Will he go for the biggest up front bonus? Stick to the AL so he can DH when he's not pitching? Go to the Dodgers where he wanted to sign back when he was 18? Curious to see what happens, and how good he turns out to be (and if he can legitimately play both ways).

Not really hot stove, but RIP to Roy Halladay (plane crash) and Red Sox top prospect Daniel Flores (cancer, only 17), who both died this week.

[Olympic Fan]

First cold morning here, so might as well get the stove going to warm things up.

The Nippon Ham Fighters have announced that they well post two-way star Shohei Otani this off-season. Under the new CBA, he's giving up a ton of money by coming now instead of waiting 2 more years, and teams will be severely limited in what they can offer him, so it will be interesting to see who he signs with. The Rangers and Yankees have the most international free agent bonus pool money available, but the difference between them and the lowest teams is only about $3 million, so not much in the context of a long mlb career (or even in the context of marketing opportunities depending on what market he's in). Will he go for the biggest up front bonus? Stick to the AL so he can DH when he's not pitching? Go to the Dodgers where he wanted to sign back when he was 18? Curious to see what happens, and how good he turns out to be (and if he can legitimately play both ways).

Not really hot stove, but RIP to Roy Halladay (plane crash) and Red Sox top prospect Daniel Flores (cancer, only 17), who both died this week.

Agree that Otani is the biggest news. This us probably the greatest Japanese talent available since Ichiro ... and certainly he's the most unique with a Ruthian range of skills (I'm NOT saying he's that level, but he is a first-class pitcher and a first-class slugger). He's a guy who will impact anybody he signs with.

One other story to watch -- Derek Jeter has talked about slashing the payroll in Miami ... and he's confirmed that Giancarlo Stanton is on the trading block. It's going to take a ton of prospects ... but to get a 50 home run guy?? The Red Sox definitely need that kind of pop to put them over the top, but do they have the prospects that would interest Jeter? The Yanks have the prospects, but don't really need Stanton -- except it would be awesome to have two 50-home run guys back-to-back in the lineup ... how often as that happened in baseball history? The answer -- once (1961 Mantle and Maris). Ruth and Gehrig never did it (mainly because Gehrig never hit 50).

Also, I think Jake Arrieta is the one real pitching prize on the free agent market. Well, I guess you can count Yu Darvish, despite his WS meltdown. But there will be a bunch of solid bats available.

[CDu]

Not sure I am buying the Otani hype. At least not as a hitter. His hitting stats seem more like those of Kosuke Fukudome’s than that of a slugger. It is important to renember that power numbers simply don’t translate from Japan to the US. Whether it be smaller parks or less pitching depth or both, Japanese hitters have pretty much all seen their power drop substantially in the US.

Now, Otani is unique in that he probably would/will be a legitimate hitter in addition to being a terrific pitching prospect. But I am not convinced he will be an impact bat in MLB.

[Blue in the Face]

Not sure I am buying the Otani hype. At least not as a hitter. His hitting stats seem more like those of Kosuke Fukudome’s than that of a slugger.

Fukudome's career stats in Japan are a fair bit better than Otani's, but it's not realistic to compare them without taking account of age. Otani has been well ahead of where Fukudome was at a similar age. Obviously that doesn't mean he'll be more successful here, but I don't think Fukudome means much with regard to Otani, other than being an example that many good Japanese hitters have struggled to do well in mlb.

[Olympic Fan]

The news keeps piling up:

-- In the least surprising vote in modern history, Judge and Ballinger won the rookie of the year awards in the two leagues. Maybe a little surprising in that both were unanimous.

-- Future Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran retired after 20 years in the game -- a month after winning his first World Series ring. There's at least some speculation that he may be in the running to become manager of the Yankees.

-- Hall of Fame second baseman Bobby Doerr just died at age 99. Hard to be too sad -- he had a long and apparently happy life. Still, RIP.

[CDu]

Fukudome's career stats in Japan are a fair bit better than Otani's, but it's not realistic to compare them without taking account of age. Otani has been well ahead of where Fukudome was at a similar age. Obviously that doesn't mean he'll be more successful here, but I don't think Fukudome means much with regard to Otani, other than being an example that many good Japanese hitters have struggled to do well in mlb.

Fukudome's age-22 power stats are actually pretty comparable to Otani's age-22 power numbers (Otani did have a somewhat better ISO). The major difference is the rate of singles they got (which is usually a result of luck). Otani had a BABIP of .482 last year, which is absurdly high. Fukudome was less lucky (BABIP of .404) in his age-22 season. So I don't think Fukudome is an awful comp. Otani will likely have a bit more pop than Fukudome or Ichiro did, but way less power than Hideki Matsui had. And he isn't likely to hit like Ichiro did.

Now, that'd still be a decent hitter. But his value appears to me to be almost entirely in his ability to be a front-line starting pitcher. He just may also be a pretty good hitting pitcher on top of that.

[weezie]

My son is telling me that J. Zimmermann wants to return to DC and that the nat is interested? Tigs will have to completely eat his ridiculous contract but it sounds like a get the heck out of Dodge moment for him. It'll be crazed cats and seas gulls on the field next season in Detroit. Might as well hop on the next freight train heading south.

[Blue in the Face]

Fukudome's age-22 power stats are actually pretty comparable to Otani's age-22 power numbers (Otani did have a somewhat better ISO). The major difference is the rate of singles they got (which is usually a result of luck). Otani had a BABIP of .482 last year, which is absurdly high. Fukudome was less lucky (BABIP of .404) in his age-22 season. So I don't think Fukudome is an awful comp. Otani will likely have a bit more pop than Fukudome or Ichiro did, but way less power than Hideki Matsui had.

Zeroing in on age 22 is cherrypicking a bit, especially since Otani was hurt this year. Through age 22, Otani's averaged a home run per 21.5 at-bats. At age 22, Fukudome homered every 32.8 at-bats, and through age 25 he was at every 30.8 at-bats. Those are pretty significant differences. That said, I'd agree Otani is unlikely to be as effective a hitter as Matsui was. Even if he abandoned pitching and became a full-time hitter, that's a pretty high bar. And the fact that Matsui is the 2nd best Japanese hitter in mlb history, and after 2 you can sort of stop making the list is a pretty good indication of the translation of hitting stats from Japan to MLB.

[CDu]

Zeroing in on age 22 is cherrypicking a bit, especially since Otani was hurt this year. Through age 22, Otani's averaged a home run per 21.5 at-bats. At age 22, Fukudome homered every 32.8 at-bats, and through age 25 he was at every 30.8 at-bats. Those are pretty significant differences. That said, I'd agree Otani is unlikely to be as effective a hitter as Matsui was. Even if he abandoned pitching and became a full-time hitter, that's a pretty high bar. And the fact that Matsui is the 2nd best Japanese hitter in mlb history, and after 2 you can sort of stop making the list is a pretty good indication of the translation of hitting stats from Japan to MLB.

I was zeroing in on age 22 because it was the only year of data common to both, and since Otani's age-22 was better than his career averages I don't think it was a disservice to him. I don't think it's appropriate to only look at HR rate with respect to power though. ISO is much more appropriate as it captures 2B and 3B (which are a function of power too). The difference between a HR and a 2B off the bat can be small, and over small sample sizes using just one of their rates can be misleading of one's true power.

Ultimately, I think Otani would be somewhere closer to Fukudome than to Matsui. I do think he will have more power than Fukudome (as I said, he showed more power at a similar age), but likely not enough to make him a huge plus at the plate.

[Mal]

Ultimately, I think Otani would be somewhere closer to Fukudome than to Matsui. I do think he will have more power than Fukudome (as I said, he showed more power at a similar age), but likely not enough to make him a huge plus at the plate.

So you guys seem to have reached something of a consensus on the projection - likely a pretty good MLB hitter but not a great one. Which I think is too bad, because I would love to see a starting pitcher who's a good enough hitter to DH the other four days. That would be awesome, and should immediately put the guy in MVP discussions, if we focus on the "V" instead of pretend it's just Best Player This Year. I always hoped at some point Rick Ankiel would come back and pitch some to go along with playing centerfield and having one of the most incredible outfield arms I've ever seen.

[Mal]

Also, I think Jake Arrieta is the one real pitching prize on the free agent market. Well, I guess you can count Yu Darvish, despite his WS meltdown. But there will be a bunch of solid bats available.

I think someone's going to end up overpaying and disappointed 24 months from now with Jake Arrieta. The drop in velocity this year might portend coming out of his prime, and his command over the last year and a half was at times really spotty. He's thrown 30 wild pitches the last two seasons, as a matter of fact, leading the NL both years. He still misses a lot of bats, but his K's have trended downward as his HR's allowed have trended upward. As one of only two front of the rotation guys available on the market this year, and a Cy Young winner, he'll be commanding a huge number of $$ and 5+ years, so I'd put a large sum on the back end of whatever contract he signs being a terrible deal for whoever's carrying it.

Darvish will probably be hurt by his WS issues, fairly or not.

Beyond that, you're certainly right that there's not much excitement on the market re: rotation guys. Will be interesting to see where Alex Cobb ends up - he's been making friendly noises towards the Cubs, and could help fill the gap left when they probably don't re-sign Arrieta. Also interested to see who grabs Sabathia, if the Yankees don't keep him around.

On the other hand, there's going to be a very active market for relievers. Not only are there a lot of them on the market, but the roster building philosophy of "starters to get us through 5 or 6 and if we're ahead at that point, game over because we've got 47 untouchable flame throwers in the pen" has reached critical mass.

Can we have a side discussion about that trend, and whether we think it will be a permanent thing and lessen the importance of the "starting" pitcher role? I think that would be cool, though it would take away some of my favorite aspects of watching a game. It could take a long time, both to change managerial and front office mindsets even further, but also to get player and agent buy-in, because it would drive down the value of ace starters, but it would be interesting to see someone eventually go with a philosophy of having a dozen guys on the pitching staff, and planning for all of them to pitch somewhere between about 90 and 140 innings. No more of this 4 days off stuff - instead of starting once a week and throwing 90 to 100 pitches, everyone's likely to throw around 2 innings or 30 pitches 3x/wk. If you've got someone like Clayton Kershaw who can get through an order 3 times, fine, but you don't need someone like that if you've got 12 or 13 guys with a variety of styles/stuff.

[budwom]

My son is telling me that J. Zimmermann wants to return to DC and that the nat is interested? Tigs will have to completely eat his ridiculous contract but it sounds like a get the heck out of Dodge moment for him. It'll be crazed cats and seas gulls on the field next season in Detroit. Might as well hop on the next freight train heading south.

The Nippon Ham Fighters are going to do a leveraged buyout of our Tigers and put them out of their misery.

[CDu]

So you guys seem to have reached something of a consensus on the projection - likely a pretty good MLB hitter but not a great one. Which I think is too bad, because I would love to see a starting pitcher who's a good enough hitter to DH the other four days. That would be awesome, and should immediately put the guy in MVP discussions, if we focus on the "V" instead of pretend it's just Best Player This Year. I always hoped at some point Rick Ankiel would come back and pitch some to go along with playing centerfield and having one of the most incredible outfield arms I've ever seen.

That's the thing: I don't think he's going to be a good enough hitter to be a DH. At least not a good one. I think he'll be a passable MLB hitter. But his non-pitching positions are corner OF or DH, and those are premium bat positions. That's my point: his bat is PHENOMENAL for a pitcher, but like Fukudome I don't think it's going to be good enough for the corner OF, nor do I think it is good enough for DH. So basically, he would be a below-average option at either spot.

Now, one could argue there is real value in having a replacement-level starter at the corner OF or DH who also pitches. But if I am a bigger-market team, I probably already have better options at those spots. So he's really only valuable to me as a starting pitcher.

For example, the Cubs. I'd rather Otani wouldn't start over Heyward (for defensive reasons, although the bats will probably be similar), Happ, or Schwarber. He'd be a potential pinch hitter and spot starter only.

[CDu]

I think someone's going to end up overpaying and disappointed 24 months from now with Jake Arrieta. The drop in velocity this year might portend coming out of his prime, and his command over the last year and a half was at times really spotty. He's thrown 30 wild pitches the last two seasons, as a matter of fact, leading the NL both years. He still misses a lot of bats, but his K's have trended downward as his HR's allowed have trended upward. As one of only two front of the rotation guys available on the market this year, and a Cy Young winner, he'll be commanding a huge number of $$ and 5+ years, so I'd put a large sum on the back end of whatever contract he signs being a terrible deal for whoever's carrying it.

I agree on Arrieta. He was phenomenal in 2014, 2015, and the first half of 2016. Then, the wheels came off a bit. His FIP and xFIP over the past 1.5 years are over 4.00. Which, combined with his age, suggests (and you suggest) that he is going to lead to some serious buyer's remorse.

I'll miss him in a Cub uniform, as he was a huge part of the Cubs' emergence over the past few years. And at his peak, he was as good as anyone in baseball. But I think the Cubs got his best years, and I probably won't mind not paying him for what will probably be his decline phase moving forward.

[luvdahops]

I agree on Arrieta. He was phenomenal in 2014, 2015, and the first half of 2016. Then, the wheels came off a bit. His FIP and xFIP over the past 1.5 years are over 4.00. Which, combined with his age, suggests (and you suggest) that he is going to lead to some serious buyer's remorse.

I'll miss him in a Cub uniform, as he was a huge part of the Cubs' emergence over the past few years. And at his peak, he was as good as anyone in baseball. But I think the Cubs got his best years, and I probably won't mind not paying him for what will probably be his decline phase moving forward.

I tend to agree with you, though his 2H 2017 numbers were appreciably better than 1H 2017 and 2H 2016 in most respects, and he is a proven performer in the postseason. So I think the Cubs will be open to signing him for a shorter-term deal (e.g. 4 years) at or close to top dollars annually, knowing that his decline phase will likely hit by the final year, if not sooner. He is still very tough to hit when his command is there, but the decline in velocity and tendency to get behind in counts more often has made him much more susceptible to the long ball these days.

[weezie]

The Nippon Ham Fighters are going to do a leveraged buyout of our Tigers and put them out of their misery.

Just substitute the Ham Fighters for the Tigs. A few semesters abroad. Lord help us, it's going to be ugly. Beer and hot dogs can only go so far to alleviate the pain.

But, we'll be saving $ on the MLB Ticket.

[Olympic Fan]

The new Hall of Fame ballot went out this week -- Chipper Jones and Jim Thome are the two newcomers who are absolute locks.

Along with the ballot went a letter from Hall of Famer Joe Morgan, the vice chairman of the HOF, urging voters NOT to vote for the PED cheaters:

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...ball-hall-fame

[weezie]

Whoa Nelly braves, what a disaster. Wow, brutal.

[Blue in the Face]

Whoa Nelly braves, what a disaster. Wow, brutal.

You're not kidding. 12 minor leaguers, including one of their top prospects, declared free agents. Major restrictions on their future international free agent bonus pool, banned from signing a high profile 14 year old shortstop they'd already agreed to a deal with, and loss of a 3rd round pick. And the permanent banning of their former GM. Yowza.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-hammers...201314625.html

[Olympic Fan]

I was just looking at the 2018 Hall of Fame Ballot and breaking down the candidates. I see them in this way:

First ballot locks
Chipper Jones -- one of the three best offensive third basemen in history
Jim Thome -- 612 home runs ... enough said

Holdover contenders
Trevor Hoffman -- got 74 percent of the vote last year
Vlad Guererro -- got 71 percent a year ago

The Cheaters (Good enough to get in, but held back by the PED issue -- especially with the much-respected Joe Morgan urging voters to reject the drug cheaters
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Manny Ramirez
Sammy Sosa

Newcomers with promise (probably not first-ballot picks, but might eventually get in)
Omar Vizquel -- the best defensive SS of his generation, but a very below-par hitter (note: I know that he got a lot of hits, but he also played a long time. His career OPS plus is 82 ... he's basically this generation's Mark Belanger)
Andruw Jones -- a very short peak, but there are metrics that show that in his prime, he was the best defensive CFer in history. And he did hit 434 home runs
Scott Rolen -- nice third baseman, but somewhat overshadowed by Chipper (although Rolen was a better defensive 3B)
Johan Santana -- nice pitcher, but I think that with just 139 wins as a starting pitcher, he has little chance

So who gets in?

My ballot would include Chipper, Thome, Hoffman and Guererro. I might throw a vote to Mike Mussina (just 51.8 percent of the vote last year). But that's it.