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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Mar 2007

    ACC Pre-season Predictions are out


  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Those lists all look pretty good, except I think Virginia's a little high and Florida St. is a little low. Anybody know how many times a team has been unanimously picked to finish first in the ACC, and how those teams have fared?
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    I like Miami as a sleeper in the ACC. And I think Maryland should be ahead of Virginia, easily.

    Is there anything more pointless than picking preseason rookie awards?

  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I like Miami as a sleeper in the ACC. And I think Maryland should be ahead of Virginia, easily.

    Is there anything more pointless than picking preseason rookie awards?
    picking the preseason starting 5?

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I like Miami as a sleeper in the ACC. And I think Maryland should be ahead of Virginia, easily.

    Is there anything more pointless than picking preseason rookie awards?
    MEDIA POLL
    1. UNC (64)
    2. Duke
    3. N.C. State
    4. Clemson
    5. Virginia
    6. Maryland
    7. Georgia Tech
    8. Boston College
    9. Florida State
    10. Virginia Tech
    11. Wake Forest
    12. Miami

    I agree with you and think Mimai finishes in top half of ACC, not 12th where Media picks them.

    Rest of the poll looks pretty close to what I think, after taking ACC unbalanced schedule into consideration:

    1. UNC (1)
    2. Duke (2)
    3. NC St (3)
    4. GA T (7)
    5. Miami (12)
    6. Clemson (4)
    7. MD (6)
    8. UVA (5)
    9. FSU (9)
    10. BC (8)
    11. VA T (10)
    12. Wake (11)

  6. #6

    Toughest Conference Schedule

    Ran the numbers with a nice linear model, and Duke comes out right in the middle of the pack as far as ACC's Toughest Conference Schedule.
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  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Pre-season polls are pointless.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    Well, they're certainly *very* unreliable - but I wouldn't agree that they are pointless, given that the point for many fans is to have fun.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by riverside6 View Post
    Ran the numbers with a nice linear model, and Duke comes out right in the middle of the pack as far as ACC's Toughest Conference Schedule.
    Did you just look at strength of the opponents without regard to which of the single games are only at home or only on the road?

    I agree GA Tech and MD by far have the easiest unbalanced ACC schedule and VA Tech has it pretty easy as well.

    However, Clemson only plays the bottom feeders once, and all three are at home and thus somewhat wasted vs. BC, VA Tech and Wake.

    IMO, the ACC unbalanced schedule may again hurt Clemson and FSU chances of a higher ACC finish and an NCAA berth, since GA Tech and MD are helped like UVA was last year.

    A lot depends on how one weighs the ACC. I assume you used the media poll which would explain 12th rated Miami having the toughest schedule, whereas I used

    UNC
    Duke
    NC St
    GA Tech
    Miami
    Clemson
    MD
    UVA
    FSU
    BC
    VA Tech
    Wake

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    No real suprises in the pre-season voting. Carolina followed by Duke makes sense to me. State finishing third will be dependent upon their Point Guard. Tyler Hansbrough as POY and Kyle Singler as ROY is once again conventional wisdom.

    Of course, now we have to play the games and see how the season unfolds. Let the games begin!
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  11. #11
    Good point. Home games and away games are treated equally. If I have time, I'll adjust it slightly to factor in away games being more difficult.
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  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh

    pre-season

    Quote Originally Posted by feldspar View Post
    Pre-season polls are pointless.
    Do you have a poll to prove that?

    How can feldspar be banned and have a recent post on the board?

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    Did you just look at strength of the opponents without regard to which of the single games are only at home or only on the road?

    I agree GA Tech and MD by far have the easiest unbalanced ACC schedule and VA Tech has it pretty easy as well.

    However, Clemson only plays the bottom feeders once, and all three are at home and thus somewhat wasted vs. BC, VA Tech and Wake.

    IMO, the ACC unbalanced schedule may again hurt Clemson and FSU chances of a higher ACC finish and an NCAA berth, since GA Tech and MD are helped like UVA was last year.

    A lot depends on how one weighs the ACC. I assume you used the media poll which would explain 12th rated Miami having the toughest schedule, whereas I used

    UNC
    Duke
    NC St
    GA Tech
    Miami
    Clemson
    MD
    UVA
    FSU
    BC
    VA Tech
    Wake
    Ok, here is a slightly different view to the Toughest Schedule page that gives 25% more weight to away games. This views gives Duke a slightly favorable schedule.
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  14. #14
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Virginia
    Quote Originally Posted by riverside6 View Post
    Ran the numbers with a nice linear model, and Duke comes out right in the middle of the pack as far as ACC's Toughest Conference Schedule.
    I'm glad that for once we don't have one of the 2 or 3 hardest schedules. It doesn't bother me as much when a team like UVA gets an advantage in scheduling but a few years ago when UNC had one of the easiest schedules, that was BS. How would their '05 season have turned out if they had gotten a tougher draw. With some of their consistency issues they might have lost a few more ACC games which would have lead to a lower NCAA seed and maybe no ring for Ol' Roy.

    Just speculations but after last season, I wouldn't mind not having the toughest road. A little gravy might be nice.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    How can feldspar be banned and have a recent post on the board?
    He wrote that one 9 minutes before the PPB post that led to his, er, stint in the time-out chair.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  16. #16

    Preseason comments from K

    I thought the Q&A with Coach K was interesting regarding Paulus.

    On junior point guard Greg Paulus:
    “He was our best shooter and still is our best shooter. Greg can shoot the ball. … He needs to remember to do that.

    Whether he starts or comes off the bench, for any of our players, they are not going to play the minutes. Nolan Smith is a really good player and is a little bit different player.”


    Bringing up Smith's name when asked about Paulus was telling. Broaching the idea of Paulus coming off the bench with no prompting may be just K's way of motivating Greg. But it might also indicate K has by no means made up his mind about the starting PG, which is encouraging. I hope he keeps his options open, stay true to his statements about earning time in practice, and lets the best player win the minutes.

  17. #17
    Zeb - I apologize if I've read something into your post that is not there. I've always thought that Coach K will play his best players (injury and discipline aside) and that he relys on practices to identify those youngsters. You and others on the board seem to be saying that if he does that, Smith will win out. That may be the case but what happens if Paulus starts? Does that mean that Coach K has changed his ways or that you will think that he is a poor judge of talent? I realize that this is a sports board and all of us have differing opinions on who should play but the number of jabs that Paulus and Scheyer have gotten in the past seven months on this board have been over the top, IMO. I expect all three freshmen to contribute this coming season. I also expect Paulus and Scheyer to play vital roles for the Devils.

    gw67

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, DC
    I think people are just trying to avoid what happened last year. It's hard to feel sanguine about the same guys who lost 7 in a row and looked pretty mediocre doing it. For me, I'm sure K feels the same way and, if he decides that starting Paulus and Scheyer gives us the best chance to win, I trust him.

  19. #19

    Interesting preseason results

    OK, when was the last time Clemson was picked as high as fourth?

    Also interesting that we are number 2 but with no one on the pre-season All-ACC squad. The voters must really like our freshman ...

  20. #20

    More subtle than that...

    I didn't mean my prior comments (or this one) to be a jab at Greg, although I can understand why you might think that.

    In general its ridiculous to think that K does anything other than play the best players he's got. No argument. I guess I have had fears that given Paulus' role as Duke's point guard since his freshman year, there might be a tendency to just pencil him in this year. I was encouraged by these comments that it does not appear that will happen.

    If Greg starts at PG, I think it means that he's the best man for the job. My personal opinion is that Greg has turned out to be more of a shooting guard. His shooting at the end of last year really suprised me (and I agree with K's assessment that is one of his strengths). However I think he is not as proficient with the skills you'd like to see in a traditional Duke PG--providing good on the ball defense of opposing ball handlers, creating easy shots for others, protecting the ball. I have watched Nolan play only briefly, but he seems to have a great handle and a great ability to defend up top. Not sure how good he is at distributing or scoring in general for that matter.

    I guess to summarize, I think Nolan is an intriguing talent and offers an option at PG that we didn't have last year. The reason I posted was that I was happy to see K seems open to using it. Maybe that he would do so is obvious, but it reassured me.
    Last edited by Zeb; 10-22-2007 at 12:46 PM. Reason: avoiding hypocrisy

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