Heels hoops discussion '17-'18 - no unc athletics scandal discussions

[JasonEvans]

...the transfer Johnson (who should largely replace Justin Jackson's contributions on offense, though he's not as good defensively).

While Cam Johnson will replace Jackson's outside shooting, I doubt he will be nearly as adept at creating his own shot. That is something Jackson brought to the table in a big way last season that will be sorely missing on this year's team. I think Carolina is going to really, really struggle in the half court this season. They will have to get out in transition a lot to score and transition often starts with rebounds -- which Carolina may struggle with this season.

[Skitzle]

What are your preferred stakes? Pies? Beer?
.

Why not steaks?

[wobatus]

This will be the first year in a long time that UNC doesn't have a team stacked with junior and senior McDonald's All-Americans. Folks who thought they wouldn't be good the last couple of years simply didn't understand the impact of having a veteran-filled roster. Folks who can't see the difference between what they had the last two years and what they'll have this year are letting past scars blur their vision.

This year's UNC team just isn't going to be as good as the last two years' UNC teams were. Still a good team, but not nearly as good.

Now, they do have a VERY good perimeter unit, with Berry (not nearly an NCAA PoY candidate, but definitely a candidate for 1st Team All-ACC), Pinson (an underrated defender, rebounder, passer, and little-things guy), Williams (a solid shooter and defender), and the transfer Johnson (who should largely replace Justin Jackson's contributions on offense, though he's not as good defensively). They also have Felton (a relatively-high-level recruit) and Woods (also a relatively high-level recruit last year). Their perimeter play should be as good or better than last year's perimeter play.

What they won't have is any high-quality players inside, which is largely what made UNC go the last two years. Luke Maye is a capable 5th/6th-man, but will get exposed by better athletes. I salivate at the chance to see him try to guard Marvin Bagley. When left wide open (as he often was last year), the kid can certainly shoot. And he can rebound within his area, but he brings little else to the table. And he's the best they have inside. The UNC frontcourt absolutely dominated the glass the last two years, and it's hard to see this group coming anywhere close to that this year. No Meeks, no Brice Johnson, no Bradley, no Hicks. Those guys were difference-makers on the glass. The new guys seem to be several steps down.

I think it's still going to be a top-25 caliber team. And given that most of the teams in the conference will take a step back this year as well, they should probably still finish in the upper tier of the ACC standings. But I don't think they'll win the ACC regular season or tourney.
And I don't think - barring a really favorable draw and good luck in the tourney - this team threatens for a Final Four or Elite 8.

While I agree Luke may have a hard time with bigs on D, certainly Bagley, the idea he'd be exposed by better athletes is not necessarily borne out. He had 15 boards against Florida State last year. He had 11 points against Kentucky in the regular season, then 17 in the NCAAs. He can shoot, but since it was only 40 attempts last year not sure he'll be a 40% shooter this year from deep. And he was only around 50% from 2, so not like Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks or Bradley down low. He needs to get some more post-moves and may never be able to get up to 55%.

But as far as rebounding, if he qualified he'd have been in the top 10 in the ACC in rebound %, and that's playing with Meeks (2nd) or Bradley (4th if qualified). He's got a wide body, very strong hands and a nose for boards. In fact he dominated an enormous Meeks in the high school playoffs when he was a baby-fat soph and Meeks a 300+ pound senior Mickey D's AA.

He also has a great outlet pass.

I get what you are saying, especially on D, length and speed and hops can hurt him. He'll need help from Brooks, Huffman or Manley but I doubt defensive instincts will be top-flight with those guys their first year.

[CDu]

Hansbrough was 23 when he graduated (assuming he did on time). He didn't turn 24 until November of 2009.

Marshall Plumlee turned 24 in July after his senior year, and Miles turned 24 in September of his senior year.

Amile Jefferson turned 24 in July. Of course he was a 5th year. Michael Ojo likewise turned 24.

Stillman White turned 25 in July. Mormon mission.

They've got nothing on Bernard James, who was 27 in his senior year at Florida State (when FSU hammered the Heels by 30+ in the regular season, then beat them again to win the ACC Tournament; also went 2-1 versus Duke that year). Bernard dropped out of high school because he didn't like the social hierarchy of school, got his GED, served 6 years in the Air Force, rising to staff sergeant, and served in Iraq and Afghanistan. After a late growth spurt he became an all-star on the Air Force team, then when his time was up he went to Tallahassee CC before signing with the Seminoles.

Plumlee was a fifth-year senior in 2016 just like Jefferson was in 2017. Miles didn't turn 24 until September AFTER his senior year (he graduated in 2012).

Jefferson, Mason, and Marshall were all 1 year older than the "typical" college senior. Miles and Hansbrough were closer to two years older.

[CDu]

While I agree Luke may have a hard time with bigs on D, certainly Bagley, the idea he'd be exposed by better athletes is not necessarily borne out.

I was referring to his defense that would get exposed, not his rebounding.

[Billy Dat]

The implication that Duke fans do not want to talk about the Carolina basketball team at all just does not ring true.

This is certainly true. Any UNC related thread is guaranteed to get major traction on this board. Every time I come back looking for something new, the thread about Berry's broken hand has risen to the top, or this one has, etc. In addition, anything Wheat writes is guaranteed to generate a ton of response. So, maybe we DO need to eliminate UNC discussions so that we can save ourselves from ourselves.

I'll add my two cents...since the Knicks suck and are a complete disgrace I have been more into the Nets and have been noticing Tyler Zeller's great team spirit and sportsmanship from the bench.

As for this year's UNC team, nothing will surprise me. I was one of the posters doubting them the past few years and have been forced to eat my words. The currency of the rivalry is head-to-head match-ups, conference titles, Final Fours and Nattys. What one values colors the perception of where the rivalry stands. While I love when the team wins the head-to-head match-ups, I tend to favor the latter so UNC officially has the conch and we need to wrest it back.

[wobatus]

While Cam Johnson will replace Jackson's outside shooting, I doubt he will be nearly as adept at creating his own shot. That is something Jackson brought to the table in a big way last season that will be sorely missing on this year's team. I think Carolina is going to really, really struggle in the half court this season. They will have to get out in transition a lot to score and transition often starts with rebounds -- which Carolina may struggle with this season.

Agreed, especially with Berry out. Pinson is a good facilitator but he isn't a scorer himself and he has to have people, uh, to whom to facilitate.

Last year UNC was 2nd in extra scoring chances per game. Mostly through offensive rebounding. West Virginia was 1st, by forcing TOs and being an effective offensive rebounding team. Wilmington was 3rd. Now, Wilmington was decent at forcing TOs. 71st in forcing opponent turnovers per possession. It was 61st in offensive rebounding %. decent. 108th in defensive rebounding %. Where they were great was turnovers per possession. 1st in the country in fewest TOs per possession. Notre Dame was 2nd in that metric. Keatts should be really good at NC State. And Brey does what he does. Lots of ways to skin a cat.

BTW, UVa was 19th in extra scoring chances per game. But they concede rebounds on O. 215th. They are 9th in D rebound %, though.

UNC was 39th in TOs per possession. Not bad for the pace they play. And recall, a lot of their O is getting it in to bigs, who are more turnover prone. Albeit Bradley and Meeks had pretty good hands.

Where they could stand to improve is opponent turnovers per possession. They were 170th last year. Going smaller, if they do, should lead to a pick-up in steal % and forced TOs. And they should lower their own TO%. They will need to balance out some weakness in rebounding % relatively. And actually, the scouting reports on Brooks, Huffman, even Manley, of all things emphasize their rebounding. Weaker on O, Brooks being most polished there, Huffman just dunks everything. And their D will be a major concern.

UNC was also #1 last year in effective possession ratio. That's possessions + offensive rebounds - turnovers / possessions. So how good you are at actually getting scoring chances out of your possessions. They were already a relatively low turnover team but need to tighten up even more. Woods had issues, but got better in conference. Theo is creative but sometimes forces it. They have to as a team shoot better from 3 to make up for the missing easy 2s.

Extra scoring chances is rebounding, ball-handling and pressure D to give you more true scoring chances, even though each team has the same number of possessions.

It's really fascinating how each team strikes their balances, and the ACC is loaded with fantastic coaches who have their own way of doing it. Duke of course has been much better in half court sets. Brey's teams don't turn it over. They don't foul (fewest fouls per possession in Div I. Clemson 6th, Georgia tech 19th). And ND shoots lights out. Pitino's teams were great at getting extra scoring chances per game. Jimmy Tilda is so good. Bennett, sure, can be a snooze fest. Boeheim. And you gotta love what Williams is bringing to Va tech. Manning had Wake back last year. And Keatts looks like he will get State back. he knows what he is doing.

The Heels won't have it easy because a lot of teams have upped their game, teams will gun for them (but they always do), and they lost a lot of talented, experienced guys.

[UrinalCake]

This will be the first year in a long time that UNC doesn't have a team stacked with junior and senior McDonald's All-Americans. Folks who thought they wouldn't be good the last couple of years simply didn't understand the impact of having a veteran-filled roster.

Definitely agree with this. Last year they had Jackson (top 10 RSCI player, junior), Pinson (top-15, junior), Hicks (top-15, senior), Meeks (McDonalds AA, senior), and Berry (top-25, junior). All were healthy for the whole season except for Pinson who missed the first half. You give any coach in the country five top-25/McD AA level players who are juniors and seniors and they will compete for a title.

With that said, they again have an experienced team this season. Berry and Pinson are back, Kenny Williams is a junior I believe, and their sophomores got playing time last year. I do think that experience plays a huge role and can offset talent, the extent to which many people underestimate.

[wobatus]

I was referring to his defense that would get exposed, not his rebounding.

Yeah, I do concede that a bit twice (also at the end, where I said length, speed and hops can hurt him on D). He'll need help, but at least he's a strong kid. There's also the fact that he may have a harder time as someone keyed on. I don't want to make too much of a few good games. Metrics suggest he has his strengths, but his usage % and minutes will go up.

[sandinmyshoes]

Is there any chance that last year's UNC prediction/discussion thread still exists? It would be fun to read Wheat's prediction and our Duke fans' predictions. It would be fun, in fact, to read all the prediction threads from last year. Especially to compare results to strident predictions and accusations of other folk being clueless.

Well, except maybe my own. I'm satisfied to remember the two or three things I might have gotten right, while forgetting all the stuff where I was clueless.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

When people ask me why I bother to come to a Duke board to post about hoops, I tell them it's because I get a challenging debate from knowledgeable fans, and the DBR board usually has the best moderation at keeping things civil...which I recognize is not easy and very time consuming for those who volunteer to do it.

The decision to keep this thread open was a good one, and I appreciate it.

Well done DBR mods.

[sandinmyshoes]

Oh, and so far as UNC goes. I will say they are going to have to be a better shooting team than they were last year because it's very difficult to see them as being as good a rebounding team.

Now, if they lead the nation in rebounding and make it to the Elite Eight or Final Four, I'm going to remember this prediction in completely different terms.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Is there any chance that last year's UNC prediction/discussion thread still exists? It would be fun to read Wheat's prediction and our Duke fans' predictions. It would be fun, in fact, to read all the prediction threads from last year. Especially to compare results to strident predictions and accusations of other folk being clueless.

Well, except maybe my own. I'm satisfied to remember the two or three things I might have gotten right, while forgetting all the stuff where I was clueless.

I would welcome that, because I was pretty spot on with my thoughts

[wobatus]

Plumlee was a fifth-year senior in 2016 just like Jefferson was in 2017. Miles didn't turn 24 until September AFTER his senior year (he graduated in 2012).

Jefferson, Mason, and Marshall were all 1 year older than the "typical" college senior. Miles and Hansbrough were closer to two years older.

OK, like Miles. I spaced on Marshall red-shirting, but not sure what the difference should be. He played 4 years and turned 24 right after his last season playing (in July), so did Hansbrough (in November). Hansbrough just didn't attend UNC the equivalent of Marshall's red shirt year. Hansbrough was maybe taking a pg year, was held back as a kid, took a year abroad when he was 9, etc. I dunno.

Now Kennedy Meeks, on the other hand, was 45 when he graduated.

[richardjackson199]

I was hoping this thread would be deleted, and that was my preference. I respect and understand the careful reasoning the mods used to keep it open. I hope to mostly ignore this thread, but I'll enjoy that it's open if UNC has the kind of rough season I'm hoping for. Nobody is more fun to watch lose than Roy. Then he puts Cam Newton to shame in press conferences after he's lost it.

I have no idea what to expect this year from the cheats. I expect they'll have a rough year. But I thought that last year after they lost Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige. The problem was the dramatic improvement of their returning players. Justin Jackson last year was sick, and was a real problem on both ends of the floor. Kennedy Meeks was one of the most effective big men in the country. He was light years ahead of where he was his junior year.

If Roy wins big with this team, I'll have to shamefully admit that he is one of the best college basketball coaches I've ever seen. If he follows 2 national championship games with another great year, after such a drop off in recruiting from the scandal -- I mean what else can you say if that happens? Like Rick Pitino, he'll always be a cheater even if he turns out to be a legendary brilliant coach. But a great year this year puts him in that category.

But that is not going to happen. The cheats will really struggle this year, and it's going to be fun. Dingle Berry has peaked, he is not going to be Justin Jackson. Luke Maye has already peaked and overachieved. He is not going to be Kennedy Meeks. Losing Bradley killed this team. This thread should serve as a nice place to enjoy the cheats brutal year. It only helps that they still think they're good.

GTHC

[Wander]

Is there any chance that last year's UNC prediction/discussion thread still exists? It would be fun to read Wheat's prediction and our Duke fans' predictions. It would be fun, in fact, to read all the prediction threads from last year. Especially to compare results to strident predictions and accusations of other folk being clueless.

Well, except maybe my own. I'm satisfied to remember the two or three things I might have gotten right, while forgetting all the stuff where I was clueless.

Well, you'd have to go back the past few years, because there are a ton of DBR posters who will claim UNC is vastly overrated no matter what every single year. Some years they'll be right and some years they'll be wrong, but it's clear that has nothing to do with any rational arguments.

They probably ARE genuinely a little overrated this year, because most of the time title winning teams get overrated the following year. I think their backcourt is good enough to still be a Top 25 team if Berry stays healthy. But there's some uncertainty because it's such a different year for them - their frontcourt is almost never this weakness like it should be this year, so it'll be interesting to see what happens to UNC as a result.

[wobatus]

Oh, and so far as UNC goes. I will say they are going to have to be a better shooting team than they were last year because it's very difficult to see them as being as good a rebounding team.

Now, if they lead the nation in rebounding and make it to the Elite Eight or Final Four, I'm going to remember this prediction in completely different terms.

The only year they were out of the top 25 in offensive rebounding % since 2009 (and I'm sure farther back but that's what I checked) was in 2013 when they were 95th. In 2010 they were 16th but were bad due to poor point guard play (which is why berry is so crucial to this year's team).

2013 wasn't a great year, but they went small and had a half-time lead against #1 Kansas in the NCAAs after a late run in the ACC. They were still 14th in extra scoring chances per game because, compared to last yar, slightly better at holding onto the ball (31st) and much better at causing TOs (88th per possession).

And yes, you are right, shooting better. They shot .376 from 3 that year. .355 last year. When Berry comes back, with Johnson, and hopefully a healthy Williams, and Luke getting more touches, the 3 shooting should slightly improve. Cam being slightly better than JJ was last year. And Luke isn't an awful rebounder. If he qualified he'd have been 6th in O rebounding %. The key will be getting one or more frosh to do it, and if Roy can do anything with them it should be to teach them offensive rebounding.

[wobatus]

Well, you'd have to go back the past few years, because there are a ton of DBR posters who will claim UNC is vastly overrated no matter what every single year. Some years they'll be right and some years they'll be wrong, but it's clear that has nothing to do with any rational arguments.

They probably ARE genuinely a little overrated this year, because most of the time title winning teams get overrated the following year. I think their backcourt is good enough to still be a Top 25 team if Berry stays healthy. But there's some uncertainty because it's such a different year for them - their frontcourt is almost never this weakness like it should be this year, so it'll be interesting to see what happens to UNC as a result.

The only times UNC has finished higher than its initial rank in the Roy era are 2005 (pres-season #4, final #2), 2006 (unranked, #10) and 2011 (#8, #7). This year may be more like 2013 when UNC went small (#11, unranked). Although that team finished relatively strong, 3rd in the ACC, and was better at year end. Roy's teams usually start ranked too high, based more on long term potential or name recognition, stumble as he sorts through line-ups, then is stronger later in ACC play etc. (they lost their opener last year to Georgia Tech, even started 0-2 in the ACC in 2009, 1-4 and 11-7 in 2014, then won 12 straight in the ACC) And sometimes they end up better than their last rank. In 2015 they were final rank #15 but kenpom 10.

Of course in 2010 it spun out of control. Locker room dissension, Larry Drew II etc. With Berry i didn't see that happening, but now he's out. Should be back not too long, but they need as many wins as possible to get in/get a higher seed. Realistically a Sweet 16 team maybe, but once you are there anything can happen. Even in 2013 and '14 they had second half leads against Kansas and Iowa State with a Sweet 16 on the line.

Optimally, Berry pulls a '77 Phil Ford and leads a team with 3 baby bigs (Yonaker, Wolf and Krafcisin) to an NCAA finals. But Walter Davis and Mike O'Koren aren't walking through that door.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

Is there any chance that last year's UNC prediction/discussion thread still exists? It would be fun to read Wheat's prediction and our Duke fans' predictions. It would be fun, in fact, to read all the prediction threads from last year. Especially to compare results to strident predictions and accusations of other folk being clueless.

Well, except maybe my own. I'm satisfied to remember the two or three things I might have gotten right, while forgetting all the stuff where I was clueless.

For your entertainment...

http://forums.dukebasketballreport.c...Preseason-Talk

I overestimated Hicks a little, he just never found that fire and energy to go with his talent that I thought he would, and I underestimated Kennard's impact abilities. I knew he would be good, but didn't see him challenging for ACC POY.

[ChillinDuke]

After considerable conversation and debate, the moderator team has made a decision about the discussion of UNC Basketball this season.

First of all, we recognize and share the anger at Carolina for perpetrating decades of academic fraud; stonewalling and double-talking their way into a pathetic defense; and then laughing as the NCAA was unwilling to punish them. It is disgusting and has changed many of our attitudes about the Carolina athletic program. Any respect we once had for our fierce rival is largely gone at this point. They deserve heaps of scorn and disgust.

However, the simple reality is that UNC still plays basketball and remain Duke's most fierce rival. Though some of you say you will choose to ignore them, the vast majority of Duke fans (and college basketball fans) will watch the Duke-UNC games with great interest. Most Duke fans still care about how Carolina's season will go because it will likely directly impact how the Duke season goes. This forum is, above all else, a place for Duke fans to talk about the things they care about. The implication that Duke fans do not want to talk about the Carolina basketball team at all just does not ring true.

So, a decision has been made that we will allow the conversation to move forward about the UNC Basketball team.

One of the other moderators wrote the following, which best sums up how we will handle the situation.

This thread -- ONE THREAD -- is for talking about UNC Basketball. Any posts that veer off topic, particularly towards the scandal, will be deleted and may result in an infraction. We appreciate that many of our readers have said that they will boycott anything having to do with UNC Basketball. If you are in that camp, we welcome you to continue your boycott by boycotting this thread. Don't drive by to tell everyone you hate Carolina, don't post about the scandal, don't whine about trolls. Simply DON'T POST IN THIS THREAD. See the other UNC threads to discuss the fallout from the scandal. Talk about Duke Basketball in the many other threads. Simply ignore this thread.

-Jason "I hope this makes sense. Feel free to ask any member of the mod team if you have any questions" Evans

When people ask me why I bother to come to a Duke board to post about hoops, I tell them it's because I get a challenging debate from knowledgeable fans, and the DBR board usually has the best moderation at keeping things civil...which I recognize is not easy and very time consuming for those who volunteer to do it.

The decision to keep this thread open was a good one, and I appreciate it.

Well done DBR mods.

I, too, would like to thank the DBR Mods for making what I believe is a rational, reasoned, albeit difficult, decision. Your collective ability to stay level-headed and somewhat impartial on this topic is impressive in a world filled with hot takes and inflammatory polarization.

Well done, indeed.

- Chillin