Silver : End the One and Done Rule

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Finally... A person with power in the right place says the right thing.

https://sports.yahoo.com/adam-silver-right-calling-end-one-done-rule-170421752.html

[accfanfrom1970]

Finally... A person with power in the right place says the right thing.

https://sports.yahoo.com/adam-silver-right-calling-end-one-done-rule-170421752.html

I hope they go pure baseball. Straight out of high school or three years, or junior college.

Of course the cheats have a big advantage since they have a curriculum designed to keep guys eligible for three years, and a coach who turns one and dones into three year players anyway.

[sagegrouse]

Finally... A person with power in the right place says the right thing.

https://sports.yahoo.com/adam-silver...170421752.html

Adam Silver's words as quoted by Dan Wetzel of Yahoo.

Silver, for his part, cited three things that have dramatically shifted. The scandals are one. “It’s clearly not working for the college game,” Silver said. Second is the increase in one-and-done players declaring for the draft. There were 16 last year. Silver said the average had been about eight per year.

And finally, it appears more top recruits don’t care about where they go to college and are just biding their time until draft night. This may be most concerning to the NBA because it impacts the league directly.

“What’s really interesting to me is the last two No. 1 picks in the NBA draft, Ben Simmons two years ago and Markelle Fultz last year, both played with teams that did not make the NCAA tournament [LSU and Washington, respectively],” Silver said. “And I don’t think enough people are talking about that. That seems to be a sea change.

“It’s become common knowledge that these so-called one-and-done players, maybe understandably, are almost entirely focused on where they are going to go in the draft lottery. Not to say they don’t badly care about winning but … the stakes are so high in terms of the amount of money they can make over a long NBA career.”

[sagegrouse]

Adam Silver is saying, "Just end it," and don't replace it with anything from the NBA side. High school players can get drafted and signed. What do we think about that? One option, which the NCAA could do on its own, is to allow drafted players to play in college, like it does with hockey players drafted and signed by the NHL.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Well, here's a question...

With training regimens, dietary science, and AAU playing twelve months a year, freshmen are more battle tested than ever. Freshmen step onto top tier college squads and are physically equal to their teammates.

Perhaps the NBA no longer needs that year to evaluate talent. Maybe NBA GMs look at Bagley and say "how come this guy isn't in our league right now?"

Sports have changed a lot in the last ten years. Maybe there's less perceived risk in drafting 18 year old kids. If so, there's no barrier to them playing, right?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Adam Silver is saying, "Just end it," and don't replace it with anything from the NBA side. High school players can get drafted and signed. What do we think about that? One option, which the NCAA could do on its own, is to allow drafted players to play in college, like it does with hockey players drafted and signed by the NHL.

Love it. Free market. Anything is better than this OAD era.

[PackMan97]

Love it. Free market. Anything is better than this OAD era.

Agree, would love this.

I hate the three years rule.

[Troublemaker]

I'm skeptical. I think the majority of owners want OAD because they want (a) draft prospects to have their weaknesses exposed against a higher level of competition, thus making it easier for scouting departments to sort the prospects, and (b) free marketing for these draft prospects through the college game.

Now, there probably are a minority of teams who believe they have a scouting edge and would salivate at the opportunity to draft players out of high school and take advantage of other teams' mistakes. (One of the teams ready to pounce on that opportunity might be the Spurs, who hired high school recruiting guru Dave Telep a few years ago.) But if I'm right about the majority, nothing will change with OAD. They're not incentivized to change it.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

But if I'm right about the majority, nothing will change with OAD. They're not incentivized to change it.

Except that freshmen are bigger, better, and stronger than they we're twenty, fifteen, or even ten years ago. I think NBA GMs would salivate at an extra year of Tatum or Bagley.

[jipops]

Not all players who have ended up being one-and-done were seen that way going in to college. Two prime examples being our own Jones and Winslow. So though there would likely be some change to the dynamic of the elite top 5-10 recruit, how much would really change? I would certainly hope that should this ever come to pass the ncaa or some governing body would then look to institute some 2 year mandatory attendance rule if choosing to attend college, among other changes. HA! I just spit up in my soda. Something like that would just make too much sense, the ncaa would never go for it. And plus it would only be a mandatory 2 years of fake classes.

[sagegrouse]

Not all players who have ended up being one-and-done were seen that way going in to college. Two prime examples being our own Jones and Winslow. So though there would likely be some change to the dynamic of the elite top 5-10 recruit, how much would really change? I would certainly hope that should this ever come to pass the ncaa or some governing body would then look to institute some 2 year mandatory attendance rule if choosing to attend college, among other changes. HA! I just spit up in my soda. Something like that would just make too much sense, the ncaa would never go for it. And plus it would only be a mandatory 2 years of fake classes.

Jipops, the NCAA has no power to decree a minimum of two years of play when accepting a scholarship. It would be a novel use of a "non-compete agreement," and I don't think it would work. Only the NBA can decree and enforce such a rule ("two years after HS class graduates"), and only if it is an outcome of the collective bargaining process. At least that's my opinion.

[UrinalCake]

Dumping the one year rule would definitely help the system. It wouldn't eliminate all of the current problems, but it would fix some of them. Unfortunately I don't see the NBA owners voting for this. All of the reasons Silver cited apply to the college game, and NBA owners don't give a flip about college or the NCAA. They want the year to evaluate players. For every LeBron James who was ready to contribute in year one, there are probably 20 Jonathan Benders who would be complete busts, and NBA owners want to avoid that.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

If the end result of this is that true NBA level players never set foot on a campus, and the players who do go to school tend towards four year players with less talent... Well, that sounds fine. Let the kids who see the NBA as a career at 18 follow that. Let the kids who are good, but also feel a four year degree for free is a bargain play for the schools.

When you say it that way, it doesn't sound revolutionary.

[LasVegas]

If it does end, the very next draft class will be stacked. Elite HS players and elite one and done players who were forced to go to college for a year.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Dumping the one year rule would definitely help the system. It wouldn't eliminate all of the current problems, but it would fix some of them. Unfortunately I don't see the NBA owners voting for this. All of the reasons Silver cited apply to the college game, and NBA owners don't give a flip about college or the NCAA. They want the year to evaluate players. For every LeBron James who was ready to contribute in year one, there are probably 20 Jonathan Benders who would be complete busts, and NBA owners want to avoid that.

I don't think Silver would have uttered a peep if there wasn't growing interest from the owners. I think GMs are excited about young players today and would certainly put in their due diligence and homework. Sure, there will be a whiff or two, and some GMs might be shy about using top picks on younger players. That's okay in my book, if it gets the talent to the level where they can best compete and earn their paycheck.

This is a much more palatable solution than most we have considered here in recent weeks. I just underestimated the level of interest from owners in getting the young guys on their teams.

[Troublemaker]

Except that freshmen are bigger, better, and stronger than they we're twenty, fifteen, or even ten years ago. I think NBA GMs would salivate at an extra year of Tatum or Bagley.

Why? Almost all NBA rookies are net negatives on the court, even the high lottery picks. Tatum and Bagley after one year of college will likely be net negatives. Tatum and Bagley after zero years of college will even be likelier to be net negatives.

Now, if the players union would be willing to extend the length of rookie contracts by two years, that might actually incentivize the owners to get rid of OAD. But I don't see the players union agreeing to that. (I don't think extending by one year is large enough bait on the hook, and I'm not even sure the players union would be amenable to that much.)

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Why? Almost all NBA rookies are net negatives on the court, even the high lottery picks. Tatum and Bagley after one year of college will likely be net negatives. Tatum and Bagley after zero years of college will even be likelier to be net negatives.

Now, if the players union would be willing to extend the length of rookie contracts by two years, that might actually incentivize the owners to get rid of OAD. But I don't see the players union agreeing to that. (I don't think extending by one year is large enough bait on the hook, and I'm not even sure the players union would be amenable to that.)

I could be wrong. I just see freshmen as bigger, stronger, and better prepared than even. 18 year old kids step onto the floor at Cameron and are running the show. Twenty years ago, freshmen we're lucky to see extended minutes.

18 year olds now are vastly different physically than they used to be. Pull of a pic of freshman Hurley and look at his arms. Or Grant Hill's. Then look at Tatum.

[Rich]

I'm skeptical. I think the majority of owners want OAD because they want (a) draft prospects to have their weaknesses exposed against a higher level of competition, thus making it easier for scouting departments to sort the prospects, and (b) free marketing for these draft prospects through the college game.

Now, there probably are a minority of teams who believe they have a scouting edge and would salivate at the opportunity to draft players out of high school and take advantage of other teams' mistakes. (One of the teams ready to pounce on that opportunity might be the Spurs, who hired high school recruiting guru Dave Telep a few years ago.) But if I'm right about the majority, nothing will change with OAD. They're not incentivized to change it.

Exactly, the OAD rule protects the owners from themselves and their own mistakes.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Exactly, the OAD rule protects the owners from themselves and their own mistakes.

Then why would Silver say this?

[Rich]

Then why would Silver say this?

Because Coach K told him to? He is a Duke guy after all.

Yeah, it's a good point. The Commissioner is generally the voice of the owners, but there are times when the Commissioner takes the lead and looks to the owners to follow. Maybe he thinks it's best for the game regardless of whether he has the backing of the owners (yet). Am I being naïve?