Phase 0 -- 2017-18, CTC and Exhibitions

[Kedsy]

Here's a crazy Blue/White scrimmage stat: eleven different players attempted three-point shots. Seven guys attempted multiple threes, and all seven made at least one.

Percent of three point shots out of total shots taken: Blue: 42.4% (50% success rate); White: 51.4% (38.9% success rate). So, a LOT more three-point attempts than we expected.

Offensive rebounding percentages: White: 43%; Blue: 50%. Pretty extreme, for both sides (and against fairly large opponents, too). Just as we hoped.

Free throw rate: White: 17.1%; Blue: 15.1%. Pretty anemic, for both sides. Let's hope the refs were just letting them play in this one.

Points per possession (aka, offensive efficiency): Blue: 1.26; White: 1.17. Unadjusted, of course. In 2016-17, our unadjusted rate was 1.24. Our offense will be fine.

Though our unadjusted defensive efficiencies were pretty alarming...

[uh_no]

Here's a crazy Blue/White scrimmage stat: eleven different players attempted three-point shots. Seven guys attempted multiple threes, and all seven made at least one.

Percent of three point shots out of total shots taken: Blue: 42.4% (50% success rate); White: 51.4% (38.9% success rate). So, a LOT more three-point attempts than we expected.

Offensive rebounding percentages: White: 43%; Blue: 50%. Pretty extreme, for both sides (and against fairly large opponents, too). Just as we hoped.

Free throw rate: White: 17.1%; Blue: 15.1%. Pretty anemic, for both sides. Let's hope the refs were just letting them play in this one.

Points per possession (aka, offensive efficiency): Blue: 1.26; White: 1.17. Unadjusted, of course. In 2016-17, our unadjusted rate was 1.24. Our offense will be fine.

Though our unadjusted defensive efficiencies were pretty alarming...

Guessing our defensive rebounding was correspondingly poor
Hard to get too worried about such a scrimmage.

[Newton_14]

You can realistically argue that, based on rankings and seniority, Vrank, Tucker, O'Connell, White, and Robinson are all ahead of Goldwire. Garbage time doesn't need PGs; it needs players. And all those players seem to be ahead of Goldwire (again, based purely on a mix between rankings/seniority).

After last night, I would put Goldwire very solidly in front of Tucker, White, and Robinson... I saw a kid who was ranked far lower in recruiting rankings than he should of been. I think he will get spot minutes similar to what Tyler Thornton was getting his freshman season prior to Kyrie getting injured. Not a large amount of minutes or anything but definitely spot minutes in situations where say Duval has picked up 2 fouls in the 1st Half and K is trying to prevent him from picking up the 3rd prior to halftime. Jordan was definitely not overmatched out there last night that's for sure.

That said, prior to seeing him play last night I would have agreed with your post 100%.

[Troublemaker]

"Will the big men continue to shoot threes and with some success?" might be another question for this Phase.

Javin, Wendell, Marques, and Marvin combined to shoot 2-for-6 from three last night, and I was happy to see it. There's been some discussion about how the bigs have to be able to hit long 2s in order to stretch the defense, but the stat geek in me would want them to take a couple of steps back and launch from behind the 3-pt line instead. If the bigs can combine to hit 30-33% from three, it'll be more beneficial to the offense than hitting 35-40% from "long 2" range.

I hope to see the bigs continue to take some threes and hopefully continue to make some in the two exhibition games.

[Henderson]

Here's a crazy Blue/White scrimmage stat: eleven different players attempted three-point shots. Seven guys attempted multiple threes, and all seven made at least one.

Percent of three point shots out of total shots taken: Blue: 42.4% (50% success rate); White: 51.4% (38.9% success rate). So, a LOT more three-point attempts than we expected.

With our inside players, that should frighten opposing coaches.

[Kedsy]

I think [Jordan G] will get spot minutes similar to what Tyler Thornton was getting his freshman season prior to Kyrie getting injured. Not a large amount of minutes or anything but definitely spot minutes in situations where say Duval has picked up 2 fouls in the 1st Half and K is trying to prevent him from picking up the 3rd prior to halftime.

For what it's worth, the seven games before Kyrie was hurt included three cupcakes and four "real" games. In the four real games, Tyler played a total of 7 minutes, for an average of 1.8 mpg. If that's what you mean, then I agree Jordan G may see a minute or two in "real" non-ACC games and in ACC games against lower-tier opponents. I'll be surprised if he gets off the bench at all against tough opponents after January 1, except in garbage time.

[CajunDevil]

The team benefits from having a pass first pg who can hit the 3 and is solid defensively, moreso than having Grayson try to run point, IMO. I like Goldwire and think he could certainly step in and play quality minutes backing up Duval this year, but will K be inclined to do it? Probably not, but Goldwire getting legit burn seems more plausible now than a few months ago.

[BD80]

Here's a crazy Blue/White scrimmage stat: eleven different players attempted three-point shots. Seven guys attempted multiple threes, and all seven made at least one.

Percent of three point shots out of total shots taken: Blue: 42.4% (50% success rate); White: 51.4% (38.9% success rate). So, a LOT more three-point attempts than we expected.

Offensive rebounding percentages: White: 43%; Blue: 50%. Pretty extreme, for both sides (and against fairly large opponents, too). Just as we hoped.

Free throw rate: White: 17.1%; Blue: 15.1%. Pretty anemic, for both sides. Let's hope the refs were just letting them play in this one.

Points per possession (aka, offensive efficiency): Blue: 1.26; White: 1.17. Unadjusted, of course. In 2016-17, our unadjusted rate was 1.24. Our offense will be fine.

Though our unadjusted defensive efficiencies were pretty alarming...

In retrospect, not so surprising.

With such talented big men, there will be less room for dribble penetration, thus less free throws.

However, the three point shot is still the better percentage shot attempt, particularly with athletic big men for offensive rebounding. Offense will be initiated more from an inside out approach than a drive and kick out attack.

As our post offense improves (it will be a while before they face such a big defense as they do in practice) the free throws will come.

[Billy Dat]

Other observations:

-Carter and Deslaurier seem like very willing and adept passers
-I like the repeated attempts to go hi/lo with Bagley and Bolden both assuming the passer and poster roles
-Bagley showed some real handles in transition and on a few drives. The fact that he is a lefty is lethal. He needs touches
-Trent Jr. is a tough dude with a lot of confidence and the aura of a real scorer
-O'Connell looks like he belongs, he does not lack for confidence either.
-Grayson has a lot of help out there, which should make the game easier for him

Very very exciting.

[Billy Dat]

Bagley...

On how the transition from high school to college has gone for him so far:
“It was tough at first, just getting used to the speed of the game and learning new things that I didn’t know in high
school from Coach K and all the other coaches. I’m just learning a lot. I’m just having fun. I love it here. It was the best
decision I ever made – to come here. I’m looking forward to the season."

[Furniture]

"Will the big men continue to shoot threes and with some success?" might be another question for this Phase.

Javin, Wendell, Marques, and Marvin combined to shoot 2-for-6 from three last night, and I was happy to see it. There's been some discussion about how the bigs have to be able to hit long 2s in order to stretch the defense, but the stat geek in me would want them to take a couple of steps back and launch from behind the 3-pt line instead. If the bigs can combine to hit 30-33% from three, it'll be more beneficial to the offense than hitting 35-40% from "long 2" range.

I hope to see the bigs continue to take some threes and hopefully continue to make some in the two exhibition games.

I had never thought about it but why not. I mean if your opposition thinks you only have two 3 point shooters then they will be all over them. If a big steps up to the 3point line even if they miss we stand a good chance at a rebound....

[DukieInBrasil]

After viewing the game today on replay i don't have anything to say that hasn't been said but, still...
I was not as impressed with Duval as i thought i would be, strictly due to the turnovers, and the carelessness it seemed in which they happened. I'm not too worried b/c i'm sure the coaching staff will help him improve there.
I was impressed by Goldwire and O'Connell more than i thought i'd be. I don't know if that will translate to any playing time this year. O'Connell looks more ready for D1 ball than i thought.
Grayson's shot looks really nice. Trent's shot looked nice and i liked seeing his competitive spirit.
I'm glad our bigs were willing to take long jumpers/3s, but going forward i really hope that Bolden eliminates those thoughts from his head. If Javin is gonna play the 3 then hitting the occasional 3 will be important. I really liked how well they passed the ball either hi-low or on the blocks, that bodes well. I was impressed with all of our bigs, perhaps Bolden impressed me least relative to my expectations.

We're real tall. Grayson can shoot the 3 real good. I just hope the coaching staff and players can fill in the other parts.

[Newton_14]

The team benefits from having a pass first pg who can hit the 3 and is solid defensively, moreso than having Grayson try to run point, IMO. I like Goldwire and think he could certainly step in and play quality minutes backing up Duval this year, but will K be inclined to do it? Probably not, but Goldwire getting legit burn seems more plausible now than a few months ago.

The part I highlighted in bold text doesn't really apply to Duval though. The rest certainly does and I think he may actually be better than "solid" on defense. I do like what I saw out of Goldwire too. He certainly looked like he "belonged" out there and wasn't overmatched which I admit I found surprising given his recruiting ranking. He probably will play no more than spot minutes (as defined by Kedsy earlier today in response to my post), but I don't think K will be scared to put him out there at an important time if the situation calls for it for whatever rare reason. To sum it up.. JGold was a very pleasant surprise...

[Kedsy]

I was not as impressed with Duval as i thought i would be, strictly due to the turnovers, and the carelessness it seemed in which they happened.

I originally posted the below in the CTC thread, but it probably makes more sense here. Based on past Duke freshman PGs, I think we just have to live with the TOs. It worked pretty well for guys like Hurley, J Williams, and others.

DUKE FRESHMAN PGs WHO WERE TEAM'S ONLY REAL BALLHANDLER

Player			G	Assists	Tos	A/to	topg
Bobby Hurley		38	288	166	1.73	4.37
Jason Williams		34	220	139	1.58	4.09
Greg Paulus		36	187	118	1.58	3.28
Derryck Thornton	36	93	59	1.58	1.64
Jeff Capel		34	106	68	1.56	2.00
Johnny Dawkins		28	134	103	1.30	3.68
Frank Jackson		36	61	49	1.24	1.36

Note: Jeff Capel, Derryck Thornton, and Frank Jackson might not really belong here, since they weren't necessarily the team's primary ballhandler.

DUKE FRESHMAN PGs WHO SHARED BACKCOURT WITH ANOTHER PG

Player			G	Assists	Tos	A/to	topg
Tyus Jones		39	217	76	2.86	1.95
Chris Duhon		39	174	61	2.85	1.56
Tommy Amaker		34	163	101	1.61	2.97
Will Avery		35	87	60	1.45	1.71

Note: Will Avery was really more of a backup than a second PG.

My point is that every Duke freshman PG except two turned the ball over a lot and had subpar A/to ratios. And the two who didn't were playing next to older PGs who could rein them in and/or take some of the pressure off them. I'd expect Trevon's numbers to look fairly similar to Jason Williams's freshman numbers. And if he could be freshman Jason Williams, I wouldn't really classify that as a "concern."

[DukieInBrasil]

I originally posted the below in the CTC thread, but it probably makes more sense here. Based on past Duke freshman PGs, I think we just have to live with the TOs. It worked pretty well for guys like Hurley, J Williams, and others.

yeah, i expect he'll make turnovers. the thing that unimpressed me though was that at several of his turnovers were not b/c he was trying to make a too-fine pass, or got out of control, but b/c he just got his pocket picked or didn't protect the ball. as i said, i'm not too worried about those going forward as it's easy to see how this game might not have had his full attention. i do expect that he'll make some turnovers off trying to thread too fine a needle or over-driving, and i would much prefer those turnovers to the ones he was making in the CTC.

[MarkD83]

Just a pulse check near the end of phase 0

Health good

Rotation. Nice rotation of bigs. Goldwire will help the guard rotation

Inexperience. Too early to tell

Hype. Living up to it

Offense. Good

[DukieInBrasil]

Just a pulse check near the end of phase 0

Health good
Rotation. Nice rotation of bigs. Goldwire will help the guard rotation
Inexperience. Too early to tell
Hype. Living up to it
Offense. Good

I agree with your observations, 'cept the bolded part, and i don't really disagree with it. My thought is that Trent helps the guard rotation more than i thought he would. GTjr ain't gonna handle the ball, but when Duval goes out, i think Grayson will get the ball. I do think that Goldwire will play this year though, which will eliminate his red-shirt option, and i was moderately convinced that he would red-shirt.

[Kedsy]

Here's a crazy Blue/White scrimmage stat: eleven different players attempted three-point shots. Seven guys attempted multiple threes, and all seven made at least one.

Percent of three point shots out of total shots taken: Blue: 42.4% (50% success rate); White: 51.4% (38.9% success rate). So, a LOT more three-point attempts than we expected.

Offensive rebounding percentages: White: 43%; Blue: 50%. Pretty extreme, for both sides (and against fairly large opponents, too). Just as we hoped.

Free throw rate: White: 17.1%; Blue: 15.1%. Pretty anemic, for both sides. Let's hope the refs were just letting them play in this one.

Points per possession (aka, offensive efficiency): Blue: 1.26; White: 1.17. Unadjusted, of course. In 2016-17, our unadjusted rate was 1.24. Our offense will be fine.

Though our unadjusted defensive efficiencies were pretty alarming...

In the first exhibition, ten different players attempted threes, six different guys attempted multiple threes, but only three made at least one (only one player, Grayson, made more than one three).

Percentage of three point shots out of total shots taken: 36.4% (33.3% success rate)

Offensive rebounding percentage: 42.9%; defensive rebounding percentage: 81.3% (both outstanding, as expected)

Free throw rate: 13.6% (pretty anemic)

Points per possession: 1.27

Opponents points per possession: 0.84

[DukieTiger]

In the first exhibition, ten different players attempted threes, six different guys attempted multiple threes, but only three made at least one (only one player, Grayson, made more than one three).

Percentage of three point shots out of total shots taken: 36.4% (33.3% success rate)

Offensive rebounding percentage: 42.9%; defensive rebounding percentage: 81.3% (both outstanding, as expected)

Free throw rate: 13.6% (pretty anemic)

Points per possession: 1.27

Opponents points per possession: 0.84

To add a stat,

Opponent’s 3pt Rate: 47.1%*

^That’s a huge number for Duke but unsurprising against such a small team. Will be interesting to watch in-season when teams go small-ball against Duke. In the past, Duke has defended small ball lineups by continuing to take away the 3, which sometimes results in some frustratingly easy looks at the basket.

Will the same happen this year with Duke’s rim protectors? Or will Duke concede 3s at a higher rate rather than ask Wendell Carter to chase guys off the 3pt line.

*Edited to add that Duke is consistently in the top 10-20 nationally in limiting opponents’ 3pt attempts. It’s like the most consistent thing about our defense.

[slower]

What's the start time for the next exhibition game?