Phase 0 -- 2017-18, CTC and Exhibitions

[superdave]

I think by way of the balance of the offense you mentioned, 3pt shooting should be pretty good. Why? In previous years, teams keyed in on preventing the 3s against Duke. Now, with legit post offense, they have to pick their poison. We might see way more open looks this year than in any other season, outside of the season where the offense was "miss a shot and let Zoubek kick the offensive board out for an open 3."

I do wonder if we play inside-out in half-court sets. Will we post Bagley in space a lot and let him go to work? Or will we be playing a quick enough pace that the bigs are getting more fast break opportunities and quick hitting scores?

Kedsy seems to think we play fast with Duval at point. I would agree. With the driving of Trent and Allen as well, our bigs should be able to get rims runs, cuts, dump offs, etc.

Pace ought to be interesting.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Was just at the mall for the first time in ages, waiting on new glasses (idiot puppy decided to munch on my spectacles). Saw a shirt in gag-worthy blue with a silhouette of a player in a 3 jersey, with the words "WHY YOU BE TRIPPIN?"

It is going to be a long season.

[hallcity]

Will CTC be televised?

[NSDukeFan]

I do wonder if we play inside-out in half-court sets. Will we post Bagley in space a lot and let him go to work? Or will we be playing a quick enough pace that the bigs are getting more fast break opportunities and quick hitting scores?

Kedsy seems to think we play fast with Duval at point. I would agree. With the driving of Trent and Allen as well, our bigs should be able to get rims runs, cuts, dump offs, etc.

Pace ought to be interesting.

I wonder if Bagley could potentially be a monster in the Rodney Hood foul line/ high post area, especially against zones.

[UrinalCake]

Opposing teams are definitely going to zone us and/or pack it in until we prove we can hit some threes. My hope is that Bagley and Carter can hit enough long two point shots to be able to stretch the defense without hitting threes. Otherwise we'll see defenses just camp under the basket.

[Billy Dat]

Opposing teams are definitely going to zone us and/or pack it in until we prove we can hit some threes. My hope is that Bagley and Carter can hit enough long two point shots to be able to stretch the defense without hitting threes. Otherwise we'll see defenses just camp under the basket.

If there was ever a year to try and play differently than recent years, it's this one with our speedy, poor-shooting PG, our plethora of bigs and relative lack of 3 point shooting compared to years past. The staff have spoken publily about us wanting to run more based on this year's personnel. I checked www.teamrankings.com stats on "possessions per game" as a pace stat over the past 10 years:

2017 - 197th
2016 - 210th
2015 - 141st (title)
2014 - 263rd
2013 - 116th
2012 - 90th
2011 - 45th
2010 - 225th (title)
2009 - 86th
2008 - 14th

Our 2001 title team ranked 12th, our 2004 FF team ranked 76th.

Aside from the 2010 outlier (a title year!), we've steadily played slower over the past 10 years. I'm not sure we can conclude anything about what player faster or slower will do for us, I only hypothesize that the coaches saying they want to play faster won't necessarily translate to it happening as we've been steadily moving in the other direction for a while.

[UrinalCake]

If there was ever a year to try and play differently than recent years, it's this one with our speedy, poor-shooting PG, our plethora of bigs and relative lack of 3 point shooting compared to years past. The staff have spoken publily about us wanting to run more based on this year's personnel.

Agree that with Duval and our mobile bigs we should want to run a lot, but the problem is that we have no guard depth. We can't expect Duval, Allen and Trent to play 35 minutes a game at an uptempo pace. You mentioned 2010 as an outlier, but that year's roster is the one that most closely resembles this year's with three guards/wing playing essentially the whole game and then a stable of big men. We knew in 2010 that we had to slow the pace and walk it up every possession in order to manage fatigue and foul trouble. So we'll see. If Tucker, White, or O'Connell could develop to the point of providing real minutes, I would feel better about our ability to run and gun.

[Kedsy]

Agree that with Duval and our mobile bigs we should want to run a lot, but the problem is that we have no guard depth. We can't expect Duval, Allen and Trent to play 35 minutes a game at an uptempo pace. You mentioned 2010 as an outlier, but that year's roster is the one that most closely resembles this year's with three guards/wing playing essentially the whole game and then a stable of big men. We knew in 2010 that we had to slow the pace and walk it up every possession in order to manage fatigue and foul trouble. So we'll see. If Tucker, White, or O'Connell could develop to the point of providing real minutes, I would feel better about our ability to run and gun.

In 1999-2000, we had basically a 6-man rotation and ranked 23rd in the nation in pace, with three guys getting 34+ mpg. In 2001-02, we also had basically a 6-man rotation and ranked 13th in the nation in pace with our two primary guards playing 34 and 35 mpg. In 2001, we didn't really have any more guard depth than we have now, and ranked 12th nationally in pace. In 2010, we slowed the pace because our personnel wasn't really suited to a running game. These guys are all young and in great shape and personally, I find it much less physically taxing to run and gun than it is to grind it out in the halfcourt.

If K decides to run, our lack of guard depth is unlikely to hold us back.

[dukelifer]

In 1999-2000, we had basically a 6-man rotation and ranked 23rd in the nation in pace, with three guys getting 34+ mpg. In 2001-02, we also had basically a 6-man rotation and ranked 13th in the nation in pace with our two primary guards playing 34 and 35 mpg. In 2001, we didn't really have any more guard depth than we have now, and ranked 12th nationally in pace. In 2010, we slowed the pace because our personnel wasn't really suited to a running game. These guys are all young and in great shape and personally, I find it much less physically taxing to run and gun than it is to grind it out in the halfcourt.

If K decides to run, our lack of guard depth is unlikely to hold us back.

I am less worried about players running too much- I am more worried about player getting into foul trouble. Reaching- get a block called on a switch- simple mistakes going for a ball. These young guys are going to make mistakes early. Goldwire will be called on. Will need another guard to be solid.

[budwom]

Opposing teams are definitely going to zone us and/or pack it in until we prove we can hit some threes. My hope is that Bagley and Carter can hit enough long two point shots to be able to stretch the defense without hitting threes. Otherwise we'll see defenses just camp under the basket.

Yes, I'm expecting a lot of zones, but hopefully we'll have the offensive rebounding to diminish the effectiveness of this strategy. Another good reason to get out and run when we can.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I am less worried about players running too much- I am more worried about player getting into foul trouble. Reaching- get a block called on a switch- simple mistakes going for a ball. These young guys are going to make mistakes early. Goldwire will be called on. Will need another guard to be solid.

I'd bet against you. No way Goldwire is part of the rotation. Hell, I'd be surprised if be totaled 20 minutes in non-conference play.

If Duval is in foul trouble, Grayson steps in.

[Kedsy]

I'd bet against you. No way Goldwire is part of the rotation. Hell, I'd be surprised if be totaled 20 minutes in non-conference play.

If Duval is in foul trouble, Grayson steps in.

Yeah, I totally agree. Jordan G is garbage-time-only this season. If Trevon gets into foul trouble, Grayson and Gary play PG and SG, and then either Marvin moves to SF or our 7th man (whether that's Javin or Jordan T or Alex or Jack) comes in.

[Billy Dat]

Yes, I'm expecting a lot of zones, but hopefully we'll have the offensive rebounding to diminish the effectiveness of this strategy. Another good reason to get out and run when we can.

I was thinking about this, too, but I wonder how many teams actually practice zone well enough to execute it well. against us? It seems like there are zone teams (Syracuse) and teams that mix it in frequently to throw teams off (I think of Pitino's Louisville teams), but I wonder if we actually will see more zones from our conference and marquee non-conference opponents?

If we do, I wonder if Grayson can kind of be a one man zone buster? Assuming the zones we see will be 2-3s, our aim is to get it to that foul line slot. That catcher (Bagley? Carter?) needs to be able to quickly read and react...turn and take a 15 footer, feel the guard dig down and redirect to a shooter (Grayson, Gary), or feel the baseline help and dump it or alley oop it to the other big. I think we've attacked zones pretty well in recent years. Now, the UVA packline, which is like a hybrid, will be a great test.

[ice-9]

Rev up the hype machine, stomp your feet on the bleachers, and chant "airball" at someone. It's time for the first Phase report of the 2017-18 Duke basketball season, and we're all feeling good.

Well hot damn what an amazing series of posts to read! And I can't even spork you so I'm gonna join the chorus and say kudos via comment.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yeah, I totally agree. Jordan G is garbage-time-only this season. If Trevon gets into foul trouble, Grayson and Gary play PG and SG, and then either Marvin moves to SF or our 7th man (whether that's Javin or Jordan T or Alex or Jack) comes in.

You can realistically argue that, based on rankings and seniority, Vrank, Tucker, O'Connell, White, and Robinson are all ahead of Goldwire. Garbage time doesn't need PGs; it needs players. And all those players seem to be ahead of Goldwire (again, based purely on a mix between rankings/seniority).

[Troublemaker]

In 1999-2000, we had basically a 6-man rotation and ranked 23rd in the nation in pace, with three guys getting 34+ mpg. In 2001-02, we also had basically a 6-man rotation and ranked 13th in the nation in pace with our two primary guards playing 34 and 35 mpg. In 2001, we didn't really have any more guard depth than we have now, and ranked 12th nationally in pace. In 2010, we slowed the pace because our personnel wasn't really suited to a running game. These guys are all young and in great shape and personally, I find it much less physically taxing to run and gun than it is to grind it out in the halfcourt.

If K decides to run, our lack of guard depth is unlikely to hold us back.

Coach K says Duke is trying to run this season in the following twitter video posted a few days ago: https://twitter.com/i/videos/918921151363125248

I think we'll follow through because Duke almost HAS to become a great fastbreak team AND great offensive rebounding team in order to be a great offensive team this season. Our first-shot offense in the halfcourt will probably suffer if the general consensus about our shooting prowess proves to be true. We would also be wasting Duval's talents if we're not pushing the pace.

Also, at 0:12 of that video, Bagley nonchalantly pulls off a reverse tip dunk. I'm going to enjoy watching his easy athleticism this season.

Finally, awesome Phase post, Kedsy. As always, would spork if I could.

[duke4ever19]

Will CTC be televised?

This is from the goduke.com article about CTC:

Fans who are unable to attend Countdown to Craziness have the opportunity to view the action live via ACC Network Extra as Ryan Craig and Chris Spatola provide commentary and analysis. ACC Network Extra is an Atlantic Coast Conference-dedicated live-events digital network available to authenticated subscribers of ESPN3 available on WatchESPN and the ESPN app.

Here's a link to it on ESPN's schedule: http://www.espn.com/watch/schedule/?...&type=upcoming

It's the third event listed under 'Basketball.'

[brlftz]

I was thinking about this, too, but I wonder how many teams actually practice zone well enough to execute it well. against us? It seems like there are zone teams (Syracuse) and teams that mix it in frequently to throw teams off (I think of Pitino's Louisville teams), but I wonder if we actually will see more zones from our conference and marquee non-conference opponents?

If we do, I wonder if Grayson can kind of be a one man zone buster? Assuming the zones we see will be 2-3s, our aim is to get it to that foul line slot. That catcher (Bagley? Carter?) needs to be able to quickly read and react...turn and take a 15 footer, feel the guard dig down and redirect to a shooter (Grayson, Gary), or feel the baseline help and dump it or alley oop it to the other big. I think we've attacked zones pretty well in recent years. Now, the UVA packline, which is like a hybrid, will be a great test.

I almost hope we see a lot of zone. Grayson alone can punish it, but the other factor is that zone tends to be weaker at limiting offensive rebounds, and that figures to be a huge strength for us. And then there's the ability to lob over zones on the weak side, with a pure point guard on the floor and gobs of athletic finishers near the rim. I think we'd feast against a pure zone.

[COYS]

Coach K says Duke is trying to run this season in the following twitter video posted a few days ago: https://twitter.com/i/videos/918921151363125248

I think we'll follow through because Duke almost HAS to become a great fastbreak team AND great offensive rebounding team in order to be a great offensive team this season. Our first-shot offense in the halfcourt will probably suffer if the general consensus about our shooting prowess proves to be true. We would also be wasting Duval's talents if we're not pushing the pace.

Also, at 0:12 of that video, Bagley nonchalantly pulls off a reverse tip dunk. I'm going to enjoy watching his easy athleticism this season.

Finally, awesome Phase post, Kedsy. As always, would spork if I could.

I will add to the chorus of people praising Kedsy for a fantastic phase post. I feel sorry for the guy who is writing the next Phase post. Wait . . . what? You mean I'm the one who will be writing the next phase post? Sorry to disappoint everyone.

Anyway, I find pace to be an interesting question for this year's team. While I love the idea of getting Tre, Grayson, and our bevy of athletic big men out on the break and play at a high tempo, I also suspect that our defense will be better if we stay more compact, which would probably mean playing slower on that end. I doubt we see this as Coach K really only did this in 2010 when we had a relatively slow team, but I love the idea of using our length advantage by staying more compact and cutting off driving lanes while also using our athleticism to close out on three point shooters. I would bet that instead of generating turnovers off of high ball pressure, which puts a lot of the onus on Tre to be an excellent on-ball defender from the get-go, we could get a lot of turnovers as opposing guards drive into the teeth of our long, athletic defenders who pick off passes that other teams simply can't get to and then break from there.

So, I guess my hope is that we pack it in a little bit on the defensive end because I think that would play to our strengths while simultaneously cranking up the pace the second we get the ball, whether that be off of a turnover, rebound, or even a made basket. That would probably mean that our overall pace wouldn't be eye-poppingly fast, but our average offensive possession would probably be significantly shorter than our average defensive possession.

There is a partially applicable precedent for this. Our 2015 team played progressively slower as the year went on. While some of that was due to moving from the preseason schedule to the ACC schedule where it is harder to keep the pace up, it also seemed to be intentional, at least on the defensive end. We did seem to play more compact, certainly by the end of the year and throughout the NCAAT. Although that team never played quite as compact as what I'm envisioning.

Again, though, I don't expect us to play this way because it's not Coach K's preferred style and if in fact we CAN apply good high-pressure defense, then that's even better. Also, he's the GOAT so I trust him even though I'd really be curious to see us try a compact D this year.

[DukeFanSince1990]

I'd bet against you. No way Goldwire is part of the rotation. Hell, I'd be surprised if be totaled 20 minutes in non-conference play.

If Duval is in foul trouble, Grayson steps in.

After watching the scrimmage, I wouldnt be too surprised to see Goldwire log some minutes (not as a starter). He played solid D, I dont remember Duval getting around him at all.