11/01 A Bad Moms Christmas
11/03 Thor: Ragnarok
11/10 Daddy's Home 2
11/10 Murder on the Orient Express
11/17 Justice League
11/23 Coco
12/15 Ferdinand
12/15 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
12/20 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
12/22 Downsizing
12/22 Pitch Perfect 3
02/16 Black Panther
Field
Well, the last two brand new characters introduced to the MCU were Dr. Strange and Ant Man. Strange got a holiday release and made $232 million. Ant Man was a July release and made $180 million. This is a February release (among the worst month of the year for movies) and is an even less well-known character than Strange and Ant Man. What's more, the story will almost certainly largely take place outside the United States in Africa, and there is not a great history of boxoffice success in movies about Africa. One can pretty reasonably argue that Chadwick Boseman is the least famous of anyone who has headlined a MCU movie (maybe Chris Hemsworth, but the first Thor movie was a while ago). I'm not aware of any of the big MCU stars making a cameo in this film that can be exploited in the marketing the way Iron Man was for Spiderman: Homecoming.
All that is to say that Black Panther could make $160-$180 mil and not be considered anywhere close to a "bomb."
The question you have to ask is... would $160 mil or so get you to #5 in this winter's contest? There appear to be a lot of big films in our pool this time and it is not at all uncommon for one of the prime Oscar films to have long legs that propel it to big boxoffice (La La Land $151 mil, Hidden Figures $169 mil, The Revenant $183 mil, American Hustle $150 mil, Lincoln $182 mil, True Grit $171 mil, and so on).
-Jason "is this post for real or am I sandbagging?" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
There have been exactly 3 films released in the month of February to earn more than $180 mil** at the boxoffice. Each of them was a major cultural event and became iconic films that everyone in the nation talked about. Put another way, to be a big hit in February, you need to be a truly special flick. Here are the top 5 films of all time from the month of Feb:
Passion of the Christ - $370 mil
Deadpool - $363 mil
The LEGO Movie - $257 mil
Hitch - $179 mil
Lego Batman - $175 mil
-Jason "** $180 mil is the number I feel comfortable with as the cutoff for the top 5 of winter... maybe a little bit less, but our #5 film is generally right in that range" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
If you want to make 2 or more field picks, you should pick the films you want and then also check field. Then post in this thread that you want 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 field picks. So, if you took Justice League, Star Wars, Jumanji, and 2 field picks you would make 4 total votes (JL, SW, Ju, field) and then you would post that you are picking the field twice.
Make sense?
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
36 of 54 people got 4 of 5 or better. The Top 4 vote getters were the Top 4 films. The #7 vote getter finished 5th. Using the information of other picks can eliminate a lot of choices. We are voting on films and how much box office they do, which is a function of mass appeal. There is value to the information of how others are voting.
It would be interesting to timestamp entries in an attempt to measure any benefit.
I will say that that is exactly what I do (I look at votes on the last day and pick 1-5), though I often break away on my fifth movie and pick somewhere in #6-10. I have gotten 4/5 in just about every contest that way. HOWEVER, I didn't do that in my one win. I voted earlier and didn't just vulture off of people. When picking that final movie, others' votes often influence me to NOT go with my gut, and honestly, it has cost me at least one win.
Is there a way to hide the poll results until after you have submitted a vote?
After much debate about # 5 I chose....
Star Wars
Thor
Blank Panther
Justice League
Jumanji
I don't feel comfortable going with 3 comic book movies, but they keep making them for a reason...$$$
I went with Jumanji. I wanted to go PP3, but I'm wondering if the franchise has outgrown its audience or the other way around. We'll see. Chose Jumanji, because...The Rock. I think Nick Jonas being in it is going to boost it also. I'm just hoping it's not a complete stinker and gets killed by word of mouth.
Last Jedi: Clear #1. Where will it rank against all other films in history?
Justice League: Solid #2. DCU saved by Wonder Woman. Joss Whedon will lighten the tone. Ben Affleck should thrive in the less austere mood. Ensemble of superheroes usually wins at Box Office
Thor: New haircut should appeal to women. Hulk smash appeals to men. Holiday big budget superhero flick destined to succeed, despite prior Thor efforts. Sounds like this will be the best of the 3.
Coco: Hispanic music, culture and actors - all trending up. Musical animated film for the holidays. "Secret" advantage.
Black Panther: Least confidence. Really cool superhero, could be the best character since Tony Stark. Will have been 3 months since last comic book movie, Feb films have done well.
Just missed:
PP3: Premise getting stale, Elizabeth Banks isn't directing. No Treblemakers.
Jumanji: No real buzz. Original is too old to appeal to target demographic. Too much Johnson? Baywatch stench may linger. Opens within a week of Jedi.
I have ZERO idea what Coco is...
I definitely agree Jedi and Justice League are both hands down shoe-ins. Even if Justice League disappoints, it's going to be a clear #2. After that, Thor and Black Panther are very likely to be top 5, but picking comic book movies is a bit booring.
Yeah, bomb was an incorrect word here for me. My first three were Star Wars, justice league, and Thor. I think those are gurateeed top 5 movies. After that it gets a little tricky but I think black panther will do enough to be one of the favorites for the top 5. Marvel has been on a role and I think it will do better than ant man did. My 5th pick was hard. I really really wanted to go with coco but in the end I think the star power of jumanji will put it over the top.
Yeah, I was torn. The Rock seems to be killing it lately, but I don't know if his normal audience is going to turn out for this. I was kinda hoping for a trifecta target audience of my generation, that remember the first Jumanji movie, younger kids that like the premise of the movie(my kids saw the preview and went crazy for it so I might have read too much into that), the Jonas brothers groupies and those that like looking at The Rock. Time will tell, but I agree with you, it has all the makings of a flop if the story isn't tight.