Top Movies of Winter 2017

[luburch]

Any chance Downsizing makes a run into the field? Looks amusing and has a great cast.

I've heard the reviews are not great and the second trailer gives away an absolutely massive plot point.

[JasonEvans]

Any chance Downsizing makes a run into the field? Looks amusing and has a great cast.

A chance? Sure, but the early tracking on the film is not that good. Early ticket sales and other tracking measurements are pointing to an opening of less than $20 mil for Downsizing. There's just no way it cracks the top 5 with a number like that. And, as previously mentioned, it is not getting great early reviews.

The film that I think could be a real player is Jumanji. Amazon did an early screening thing for Prime members and the buzz coming out of those screenings is good (the film is at 83% on rotten tomatoes, a good number for a action/comedy). The preview screenings reportedly sold out across the country, generating $2 mil of boxoffice, which indicates good demand for the film. It has a very realistic shot at making the $200 mil it will take to be the #5 film in the contest.

-Jason "I'm seeing Molly's Game tonight and The Post tomorrow... will let folks know if I think The Post has a shot in the contest after I see it" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Coco made $15 mil over the last 7 days. I bet it tops that number over the next 7 days (leading up to Christmas Day). Ordinarily, that would be unthinkable for a film, but I bet Coco does it. Care to take that wager?

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

-Jason "we will see how this goes... even though no one was willing to bet me " Evans

[BD80]

... -Jason "... no one was willing to bet me " Evans

I'd rather get involved in a land war in Asia

[davekay1971]

I'd rather get involved in a land war in Asia

Or go in against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

[JasonEvans]

Coco boxoffice----

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000. . . . Wednesday 12/20 - $1,191,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

Too bad none of ya'll took the bet. I think it is going to be really, really close. Right now, last week is $4,056,000 through 3 days and this week is $4,069,000. I think Sunday will be my undoing as Christmas Eve may be slow at the boxoffice.

-Jason "some day I will lose a pie bet... hasn't happened yet, but someday it will" Evans

[cato]

Coco boxoffice----

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000. . . . Wednesday 12/20 - $1,191,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

Too bad none of ya'll took the bet. I think it is going to be really, really close. Right now, last week is $4,056,000 through 3 days and this week is $4,069,000. I think Sunday will be my undoing as Christmas Eve may be slow at the boxoffice.

-Jason "some day I will lose a pie bet... hasn't happened yet, but someday it will" Evans

Too late to take the bet? My WAG is that this comes down to Sunday. Are the stakes a pie?

[JasonEvans]

Too late to take the bet? My WAG is that this comes down to Sunday. Are the stakes a pie?

Yup, I'm not betting at this point. I really thought the mid-week numbers would be better for Coco than they have been thus far. I suspected Sunday/XMas Eve would be a struggle and to see the numbers only dead even at this point makes me pretty sure my prediction will come up a little short.

Last year, on Sat Dec 24, Moana did $1.8 mil in boxxofice compared to $5.2 mil the previous Saturday. The rest of the pre-Christmas week saw Moana outperforming its previous week results and then it tanked on Christmas Eve (when everyone is traveling and having family dinners).

-Jason "to win a pie bet with me, you gotta hop on my bold statements a bit earlier in the process " Evans

[bjornolf]

Well, you never did make the stakes known when you laid down the challenge.

Plus, if you're going to lay that down, you should take it. Like you said, it's going to be close. Have some confidence, man. It's only three days in and not even a weekend yet. Public schools here didn't even get out until Thursday.

Where are those famous Jason Evans guts??

[ryetales]

-Jason "to win a pie bet with me, you gotta hop on my bold statements a bit earlier in the process " Evans

Sorry to miss a pie bet.

[davekay1971]

I think you're golden on this proclamation, JE. Today is the first day of no school around here. People will be travelling some today and tomorrow morning, but it's still going to be a long weekend of kiddos stuffed in houses on Saturday and Sunday and Coco is going to be an appealing option to many stir-crazy parents, especially by Sunday when travelers will have travelled, settled in, and gotten a bit bored.

[JasonEvans]

Well, you never did make the stakes known when you laid down the challenge.

Plus, if you're going to lay that down, you should take it. Like you said, it's going to be close. Have some confidence, man. It's only three days in and not even a weekend yet. Public schools here didn't even get out until Thursday.

Where are those famous Jason Evans guts??

Well, one of the things about the pie bets is that I always win them because I am always supremely confident in my side of the bet. I was confident enough to make a pie bet before the first few days of the week happened... now that I know about those results I am far less confident*, hence my hesitation. It is sorta like making a wager on the Duke-BC game before the game started or when the game was at halftime.

-Jason "*-if Sunday wasn't Christmas Eve, I'd still make the bet, but there's no way Coco is going to match last Sunday's $3.445 mil on Christmas Eve" Evans

[JasonEvans]

(((((Post below has been copied from the Star Wars thread)))))

I'm curious to see how well this one ultimately fares at the box office compared to the last one.

It is running far, far, far short of The Force Awakens. There is no chance TLJ matches the boxoffice of TFA. Through the first 6 days of release (Fri - Wed):
Force Awakens - $363.4 mil
Last Jedi - $278.7 mil
Rogue One - $202.2 mil

Last Jedi is selling tickets at a very similar rate to Jurassic World ($278.3 mil through 6 days), which went on to make $652 mil and is the #4 movie of all time at the boxoffice. I think Last Jedi is a mortal lock to make $600+ mil at the boxoffice (Rogue One made $532 mil), a feat only 5 films have achieved. I think $700 mil is possible, but I don't think it will top Avatar's $760 mil and won't come close to the all-time record, $936 mil of Force Awakens.

-Jason "repeat business on Last Jedi won't be nearly as strong as Force Awakens" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

-Jason "*-if Sunday wasn't Christmas Eve, I'd still make the bet, but there's no way Coco is going to match last Sunday's $3.445 mil on Christmas Eve" Evans

Coco won't be getting my money that day, but The Last Jedi will.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Coco won't be getting my money that day, but The Last Jedi will.

Adjust the figures!

[bjornolf]

Well, one of the things about the pie bets is that I always win them because I am always supremely confident in my side of the bet. I was confident enough to make a pie bet before the first few days of the week happened... now that I know about those results I am far less confident*, hence my hesitation. It is sorta like making a wager on the Duke-BC game before the game started or when the game was athalftime.

-Jason "*-if Sunday wasn't Christmas Eve, I'd still make the bet, but there's no way Coco is going to match last Sunday's $3.445 mil on Christmas Eve" Evans

As I said, it doesn't hurt that you didn't even say it was a pie bet until you'd already backed out.

[JasonEvans]

As I said, it doesn't hurt that you didn't even say it was a pie bet until you'd already backed out.

Sorry, I was thinking pie all along but did not articulate it. Regardless, as I said I am much less confident now that the first few data points are in (though it is the Xmas eve Sunday that really scares me).

[Doria]

I'm really excited about Annihilation (because it is written and directed by Ex Machina's Alex Garland) but I am hearing it will be too weird for a mainstream audience. The studio seems to be very cautious about its prospects.



-Jason "it is trading at a very modest $39 on HSX" Evans

I am very excited about that movie! I disliked Ex Machina, though I loved and appreciated many aspects of it, but this looks great.

I agree, though, this is not—in any way, shape, or form—a mainstream movie. I have zero idea how it got greenlit. Maybe it sneaked with all the YA dystopian films, despite not being YA at all. The concept reminds me most of “Roadside Picnic,” which I truly love, and its film version, Stalker, which recently got a Criterion release (and which I love lesserly, but that may be because it’s so... Tarkovskian {not a word, I know}).

[BD80]

... it’s so... Tarkovskian {not a word, I know}).

It is a word. I know because I saw it on the Internet.

[JasonEvans]

Coco update--

Monday 12/11 - $1,109,000 . . . . Monday 12/18 - $1,174,000
Tuesday 12/12 - $1,759,000 . . . . Tuesday 12/19 - $1,704,000
Wednesday 12/13 - $1,188,000. . . . Wednesday 12/20 - $1,191,000
Thursday 12/14 - $1,070,000. . . . . Thursday 12/21 - $1,312,000
Friday 12/15 - $2,251,000
Saturday 12/16 - $4,252,000
Sunday 12/17 - $3,445,000

-Jason "Coco is running a cool $300k ahead of last week... unless Friday and Saturday are big, the Sunday Xmas Eve shortfall will prove my undoing" Evans