Top Movies of Winter 2017

[PackMan97]

Last Jedi, Thor and Justice League for sure.

Went Ferdinand and Jumanji, figuring family films will do well over the holidays and that there will be enough superhero fatigue to keep Black Panther just out of the top 5.

It will be shocking if Jedi, Justice League, and Thor don't finish in the top 3 and in that order.

I too went with Ferdinand because as Cars 3 proved, Pixar just isn't a shoe-in anymore and if I wanted to take my kids to see a movie (I don't), it would be Ferdinand and not Coco (which just seems like the latin american take on Footloose or something). Although, I thin k the release date for Ferdinand is not optimal for finish top 5.

Jumanji, ugh! I hated the trailer. HATED IT! As much as I like The Rock...his attempts at comedy and non-action movies have left me really sad. Hated Central Intelligence and really don't like Kevin Hart. That this is another action-comedy with Hart really makes me not want to see it. It's kinda like putting Carolina in my march madness bracket because it might help me win. Well, let me tell you, I'm done with that crap. I don't want this movie to be successful so I'm not voting for it!

[Chicago 1995]

It will be shocking if Jedi, Justice League, and Thor don't finish in the top 3 and in that order.

I too went with Ferdinand because as Cars 3 proved, Pixar just isn't a shoe-in anymore and if I wanted to take my kids to see a movie (I don't), it would be Ferdinand and not Coco (which just seems like the latin american take on Footloose or something). Although, I thin k the release date for Ferdinand is not optimal for finish top 5.

Jumanji, ugh! I hated the trailer. HATED IT! As much as I like The Rock...his attempts at comedy and non-action movies have left me really sad. Hated Central Intelligence and really don't like Kevin Hart. That this is another action-comedy with Hart really makes me not want to see it. It's kinda like putting Carolina in my march madness bracket because it might help me win. Well, let me tell you, I'm done with that crap. I don't want this movie to be successful so I'm not voting for it!

Jumanji was kind of a "I'm not sure what else to pick" kind of movie. That said, I think there might be enough nostalgia/credibility with parents who saw the original that it could get momentum. The Rock in non-action movies isn't the lock I'd like him to be, but what's a better bet?

[bjornolf]

I didn't really like the original Jumanji, and I love Robin Williams. I'm curious about Coco. Did Book of the Dead, or Book of Life or whatever it was called do well? Seems like it plays to the same audience to me.

[JasonEvans]

I'm curious about Coco. Did Book of the Dead, or Book of Life or whatever it was called do well? Seems like it plays to the same audience to me.

Book of Life made $50 mil... not good.

But, PIXAR!!

[NashvilleDevil]

Went with the obvious for 3 of them, 1) Star Wars, 2) Thor, 3) Justice League.

For my last 2 I went with Black Panther and after seeing the latest trailer I am glad I did, that movie looks legit.

I went with Ferdinand as my family pick. Both of my kids have read the book and they saw the trailer for this in the summer and want to see it. Looks like it could be a fun time at the movies.

[PackMan97]

For my last 2 I went with Black Panther and after seeing the latest trailer I am glad I did, that movie looks legit.

I must admit I'm getting stoked about Black Panther. I really didn't "get it" when it was announced...but the rollout for Wakanda has been masterful. While the MCU has had a few hicups, over all it's just been so well done. With the lead ups to the new Thor movie, the teases for Black Panther...the introduction of the infinity stones to lead into Infinity War...Marvel has made movies that look really good as stand alones, but also are able to move a plot along in a different story line.

[davekay1971]

I must admit I'm getting stoked about Black Panther. I really didn't "get it" when it was announced...but the rollout for Wakanda has been masterful. While the MCU has had a few hicups, over all it's just been so well done. With the lead ups to the new Thor movie, the teases for Black Panther...the introduction of the infinity stones to lead into Infinity War...Marvel has made movies that look really good as stand alones, but also are able to move a plot along in a different story line.

Even though I enjoyed the first two Thor movies more than most other people, I wasn't all that excited for the third one...until I started seeing the trailers and hearing all the great early buzz. Now I'm stoked. But the movie which really had me excited for winter was Black Panther. As soon as I heard it was going to feature Michael B Jordan as the villain and was being directed by Ryan Coogler, Michael B Jordan's director from Creed, I was hopeful. Also just really loved Chadwick Boseman in the Black Panther role in Civil War. The trailers have certainly been exciting. And, of course, there seems to be a bigger role in this for Andy Serkis as (I guess) one of the villains.

Hopefully Martin Freeman will get more screen time. Marvel has teased us before with great actors (Idris Elba) in tiny but memorable roles and the promise that the role will grow to take advantage of the quality of the actor. In Elba's case, that hasn't happened. Would be a crime to have actors like he and Freeman not able to really stretch their wings a little.

[Wander]

I messed up the summer movie thread by not picking Wonder Woman. Not again. Black Panther will be successful in part for similar reasons to WW and in part because it just is going to feel fresher than something like Thor 3.

[JasonEvans]

I hate being boring and obvious, but I went with the 5 most logical choices. In order, the top 5 will be:

1. Star Wars 8 - Perhaps the biggest no brainer in the history of no brainers. If this film only makes $500 million it will be a huge disappointment. Rogue One made $530+ mil and it wasn't even about the main characters! I expect this film to earn about $750 mil and perhaps muuuuch more.
2. Justice League - Batman vs. Superman sucked and it still made $330 million. Wonder Woman was good and it made $420 mil. I think Joss Whedon probably injects some much need humor and humanity and this flick ends up in the same ballpark as Wonder Woman... lets say $425 mil.
3. Thor: Ragnarok - The trailers look simply awesome with a great mix of humor and action. Marvel is going full on buddy comedy in this flick and it should easily be the most successful of the Thor films. I would think the cosmic stuff would make this a harder sell than a film set on Earth but Guardians has cleared $330 mil each time out and this feels like it has that same humor/action sensibility. I'll guess $350 mil.
4. Coco - I know Pixar does not have the magic touch any more (Good Dinosaur and Cars 3 were both major misses) but I really trust director Lee Unkrich (the story is also his idea). His directorial credits for his career are: Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo, Monster's Inc, and Toy Story 3. That's impressive. He knows what he is doing. I also think it won't hurt at all that this film will be a huge hit with Hispanic audiences. I expect something in the range of Moana's $248 million... let's round up and say $250 mil.
5. Black Panther - I considered Jumaniji, Pitch Perfect 3, and Field for this spot. It has been a bad year for comedies and it feels like Jumanji is playing more like a comedy than an adventure film. PP2 burned me when it made $184 mil in 2015 (denying me and several others a summer victory) but I don't sense much excitement for the 3rd edition. I came really close to picking field because there will likely be one of the Oscar contenders that breaks out and makes big boxoffice (there almost always is), but I suspect none of them will get to the boxoffice heights that Black Panther achieves. Wake me when a Marvel movie bombs. Yes, I know February is not a good time for movies, but we thought April wasn't a good time for movies until Captain America: The Winter Soldier made $259 mil that month. While it might be easy to look at this as similar to Ant Man (origin story for a somewhat obscure Marvel character) which made $180 mil, I think the AfAm market is really going to turn out to see one of their own leading a major franchise film. Plus, though this may be an origin story, we got to know Black Panther in Civil War (which made $408 mil). I mean, if only 50% of the folks who saw Civil War go to see this film, it is still makes $204 million. But, I expect it to do better than that. Let's call it $235 million.

I will also say that I expect this to be a contest with little drama. I think all 5 of these will open strongly and there won't be all that much in terms of competition for them. Put another way, I expect the #6 film to make less than $180 million and not really contend with the top 5.

-Jason "I am sure there are at least 5 or 6 other who went with this same combo of films... but I am content to divide the huge first place prize with all of them " Evans

[FerryFor50]

I hate being boring and obvious, but I went with the 5 most logical choices. In order, the top 5 will be:

1. Star Wars 8 - Perhaps the biggest no brainer in the history of no brainers. If this film only makes $500 million it will be a huge disappointment. Rogue One made $530+ mil and it wasn't even about the main characters! I expect this film to earn about $750 mil and perhaps muuuuch more.
2. Justice League - Batman vs. Superman sucked and it still made $330 million. Wonder Woman was good and it made $420 mil. I think Joss Whedon probably injects some much need humor and humanity and this flick ends up in the same ballpark as Wonder Woman... lets say $425 mil.
3. Thor: Ragnarok - The trailers look simply awesome with a great mix of humor and action. Marvel is going full on buddy comedy in this flick and it should easily be the most successful of the Thor films. I would think the cosmic stuff would make this a harder sell than a film set on Earth but Guardians has cleared $330 mil each time out and this feels like it has that same humor/action sensibility. I'll guess $350 mil.
4. Coco - I know Pixar does not have the magic touch any more (Good Dinosaur and Cars 3 were both major misses) but I really trust director Lee Unkrich (the story is also his idea). His directorial credits for his career are: Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo, Monster's Inc, and Toy Story 3. That's impressive. He knows what he is doing. I also think it won't hurt at all that this film will be a huge hit with Hispanic audiences. I expect something in the range of Moana's $248 million... let's round up and say $250 mil.
5. Black Panther - I considered Jumaniji, Pitch Perfect 3, and Field for this spot. It has been a bad year for comedies and it feels like Jumanji is playing more like a comedy than an adventure film. PP2 burned me when it made $184 mil in 2015 (denying me and several others a summer victory) but I don't sense much excitement for the 3rd edition. I came really close to picking field because there will likely be one of the Oscar contenders that breaks out and makes big boxoffice (there almost always is), but I suspect none of them will get to the boxoffice heights that Black Panther achieves. Wake me when a Marvel movie bombs. Yes, I know February is not a good time for movies, but we thought April wasn't a good time for movies until Captain America: The Winter Soldier made $259 mil that month. While it might be easy to look at this as similar to Ant Man (origin story for a somewhat obscure Marvel character) which made $180 mil, I think the AfAm market is really going to turn out to see one of their own leading a major franchise film. Plus, though this may be an origin story, we got to know Black Panther in Civil War (which made $408 mil). I mean, if only 50% of the folks who saw Civil War go to see this film, it is still makes $204 million. But, I expect it to do better than that. Let's call it $235 million.

I will also say that I expect this to be a contest with little drama. I think all 5 of these will open strongly and there won't be all that much in terms of competition for them. Put another way, I expect the #6 film to make less than $180 million and not really contend with the top 5.

-Jason "I am sure there are at least 5 or 6 other who went with this same combo of films... but I am content to divide the huge first place prize with all of them " Evans

I went with Coco, but I wonder how many families are going to want to bring their kids to an animated movie that invites lots of tough questions about death...

[LasVegas]

Seems like it’s going to come down to that 5th spot. Coco, jumanji, Ferdinand, field. I went with jumanji just because I liked the trailers and I like the stars in it. Kevin Hart always entertains me. But I ALMOST went with Coco. It looks great.

Justice League looks terrible and I anticipate it being terrible. Will still bring in the money though, largely thanks to wonder women.

[luburch]

I went with the four fairly easy picks. Last Jedi, Black Panther, Justice League, Thor.

The 5th pick was a little more difficult. Struggled to decide between Ferdinand and Coco. I watched trailers for both and Ferdinand seems like the more fun film, but it's released on the same day as Last Jedi. Downsizing is the film I think has an outside shot of creeping into the top 5 as well. The trailer looks fun and it has a strong cast.

I ended up going with Ferdinand in the end. Hope I don't regret it.

[DUKIECB]

I hate being boring and obvious, but I went with the 5 most logical choices. In order, the top 5 will be:

1. Star Wars 8 - Perhaps the biggest no brainer in the history of no brainers. If this film only makes $500 million it will be a huge disappointment. Rogue One made $530+ mil and it wasn't even about the main characters! I expect this film to earn about $750 mil and perhaps muuuuch more.
2. Justice League - Batman vs. Superman sucked and it still made $330 million. Wonder Woman was good and it made $420 mil. I think Joss Whedon probably injects some much need humor and humanity and this flick ends up in the same ballpark as Wonder Woman... lets say $425 mil.
3. Thor: Ragnarok - The trailers look simply awesome with a great mix of humor and action. Marvel is going full on buddy comedy in this flick and it should easily be the most successful of the Thor films. I would think the cosmic stuff would make this a harder sell than a film set on Earth but Guardians has cleared $330 mil each time out and this feels like it has that same humor/action sensibility. I'll guess $350 mil.
4. Coco - I know Pixar does not have the magic touch any more (Good Dinosaur and Cars 3 were both major misses) but I really trust director Lee Unkrich (the story is also his idea). His directorial credits for his career are: Toy Story 2, Finding Nemo, Monster's Inc, and Toy Story 3. That's impressive. He knows what he is doing. I also think it won't hurt at all that this film will be a huge hit with Hispanic audiences. I expect something in the range of Moana's $248 million... let's round up and say $250 mil.
5. Black Panther - I considered Jumaniji, Pitch Perfect 3, and Field for this spot. It has been a bad year for comedies and it feels like Jumanji is playing more like a comedy than an adventure film. PP2 burned me when it made $184 mil in 2015 (denying me and several others a summer victory) but I don't sense much excitement for the 3rd edition. I came really close to picking field because there will likely be one of the Oscar contenders that breaks out and makes big boxoffice (there almost always is), but I suspect none of them will get to the boxoffice heights that Black Panther achieves. Wake me when a Marvel movie bombs. Yes, I know February is not a good time for movies, but we thought April wasn't a good time for movies until Captain America: The Winter Soldier made $259 mil that month. While it might be easy to look at this as similar to Ant Man (origin story for a somewhat obscure Marvel character) which made $180 mil, I think the AfAm market is really going to turn out to see one of their own leading a major franchise film. Plus, though this may be an origin story, we got to know Black Panther in Civil War (which made $408 mil). I mean, if only 50% of the folks who saw Civil War go to see this film, it is still makes $204 million. But, I expect it to do better than that. Let's call it $235 million.

I will also say that I expect this to be a contest with little drama. I think all 5 of these will open strongly and there won't be all that much in terms of competition for them. Put another way, I expect the #6 film to make less than $180 million and not really contend with the top 5.

-Jason "I am sure there are at least 5 or 6 other who went with this same combo of films... but I am content to divide the huge first place prize with all of them " Evans

You wrote the explanation for my picks exactly as I feel about them. I too went with Coco as #5 as I think the Hispanic audience will help it and my other consideration, Ferdinand, simply has too much competition to overcome during the time of its release. I hate making the boring picks, they almost never work out but if they do I will go back to back for the summer / winter!

[IrishDevil]

You wrote the explanation for my picks exactly as I feel about them. I too went with Coco as #5 as I think the Hispanic audience will help it and my other consideration, Ferdinand, simply has too much competition to overcome during the time of its release. I hate making the boring picks, they almost never work out but if they do I will go back to back for the summer / winter!

My picks and thoughts exactly. I almost hope I lose so the contest is a bit more interesting with a dark horse contender, but I think Ferdinand's release date hands #5 to Coco.

[CameronBornAndBred]

My picks and thoughts exactly. I almost hope I lose so the contest is a bit more interesting with a dark horse contender, but I think Ferdinand's release date hands #5 to Coco.

Last winter I won with Sing as a pick, and it was released essentially the same time as Rogue One. But, I also had faith in The Good Dinosaur being an adventure in suckitude. I think this season Coco has too much going for it, though, to allow Ferdinand to squeeze in to the top 5.

[IrishDevil]

Last winter I won with Sing as a pick, and it was released essentially the same time as Rogue One. But, I also had faith in The Good Dinosaur being an adventure in suckitude. I think this season Coco has too much going for it, though, to allow Ferdinand to squeeze in to the top 5.

Agreed. Also, despite Disney's fervent wishes otherwise, the core Star Wars "saga" films still generate more positive buzz and repeat viewings than the side "anthology" films, especially anthology films with a darker premise/ending, troubled production history, and more mixed reviews, like Rogue One. I haven't heard anything like that with Ep. VIII, so I think Ferdinand faces a taller task in competing with the Last Jedi.

[PackMan97]

Agreed. Also, despite Disney's fervent wishes otherwise, the core Star Wars "saga" films still generate more positive buzz and repeat viewings than the side "anthology" films, especially anthology films with a darker premise/ending, troubled production history, and more mixed reviews, like Rogue One. I haven't heard anything like that with Ep. VIII, so I think Ferdinand faces a taller task in competing with the Last Jedi.

I used to think that movies like Star Wars and Ferdinand didn't compete for audiences...but danged...parents will take their little ones to see anything these days...$15 for ticket and popcorn for their six year old and therapy at a later date is so much cheaper than $50 for a baby sitter!

So, the parents and kid get to see Star Wars and no one goes to see Ferdinand. Of course, I guess the ticket prices and cost of baby sitters doesn't help much either. Who can afford a date night + baby sitter AND a matinee the next day.

[JasonEvans]

If you were waiting to vote at the last minute, you have about 3 days left.

Interesting that the Field is the 6th most popular choice this winter. Probably not a bad bet. We've certainly seen a number of field choices crack our contest in the past.

-Jason "I know there are a couple of you who did not vote for Thor... you made a mistake" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

If you were waiting to vote at the last minute, you have about 3 days left.

Interesting that the Field is the 6th most popular choice this winter. Probably not a bad bet. We've certainly seen a number of field choices crack our contest in the past.

-Jason "I know there are a couple of you who did not vote for Thor... you made a mistake" Evans

The field was tempting. I think Murder on the Orient Express looks all kinds of fun. And there is the Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel Day-Lewis (can we cram a few more names in there?) Phantom Thread, which pairs those two again for Lewis' swan song movie outing. (They did There Will Be Blood.)
But, I don't see anything out there, even the Oscar contenders, that will pack a top 5 punch.

[Doria]

The field was tempting. I think Murder on the Orient Express looks all kinds of fun. And there is the Paul Thomas Anderson/Daniel Day-Lewis (can we cram a few more names in there?) Phantom Thread, which pairs those two again for Lewis' swan song movie outing. (They did There Will Be Blood.)
But, I don't see anything out there, even the Oscar contenders, that will pack a top 5 punch.

Totally agree. I really wanted to take the girls because I was dissatisfied with either of my final picks for #5. Ultimately, though, I just couldn’t. I couldn’t really see any of the field picks justifying themselves over either of the choices I had for #5.

(On a total tangent, I’m excited to see Orient Express.)