Top Movies of Winter 2017

[CameronBornAndBred]

It was a ho-hum session at the North American box office as moviegoers feasted on post-Thanksgiving leftovers with studios not releasing any major new titles. Disney and Pixar topped the charts once again with their animated hit CocoI'm a real wanker for saying this.which grossed an estimated $26.1M in its second round dropping by a reasonable 49% from its holiday weekend launch. After 12 full days of play, the Mexican tale has banked a solid $108.7M and may be only halfway to its final destination through the holidays.

For those of us that picked it, it better be.

https://editorial.rottentomatoes.com...ember-weekend/

[CameronBornAndBred]

Caught a showing of Coco yesterday. Really enjoyed it. The 20 minute Frozen short beforehand though...

No more Olaf.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/04/entert...ort/index.html

[PackMan97]

No more Olaf.
http://www.cnn.com/2017/12/04/entert...ort/index.html

I saw some speculation that suggested Coco wasn't getting the repeat showings Disney/Pixar wanted due to that 20 minute short. Not surprised it's gone.

[YmoBeThere]

Thor: Ragnarok: $301,156,064
Justice League: $212,060,371
Coco: $135,508,690
Wonder: $100,303,106
Murder on the Orient Express (2017): $92,707,515

Of course, the big event is Star Wars: The Last Jedi coming out this weekend. Perhaps hoping to catch younger viewers who can't see SW:TLJ due to capacity issues is Ferdinand. 3 more movies follow the next weekend and then we will have a long wait until Black Panther. We'll see if any of the field candidates make enough noise while we wait.

I don't think JL is going to hit much more than $250.

[DU82]

An interesting note about the comics movie "wars". The first five DC Universe movies have made more money than the first five Marvel movies (adjusted for inflation, which mostly benefits the Marvel totals.) The DC movies start with Man of Steel, and does not include Nolan's Batman trilogy.

https://www.cbr.com/dceu-more-successful-than-mcu/

Finally saw Justice League this weekend. I thought it was decent. It took a while to get around to getting the team together (meaning the first part was slow) but the overall movie was good. My main complaint, that matches the earlier DC films, is that the plot/characters don't follow the original source material as closely as the Marvel ones seem to do. (I like the Aquaman character and look, but to me he should be dressed in orange and green!)

I agree with some of the comments that it appears that some critics are biased towards Marvel. (Admittedly I'm a big DC fan, 16K DC comics in the closet as opposed to about 500 Marvels.)

[Matches]

1st five Marvel movies were Iron Man 1 & 2, Cap, Thor & Hulk, though. No Avengers. DC already rolled out its tent pole film.

[PackMan97]

1st five Marvel movies were Iron Man 1 & 2, Cap, Thor & Hulk, though. No Avengers. DC already rolled out its tent pole film.

Not to mention the only successful comic book movies at the time of Iron Man were the X-Men, Batman and Spiderman. Everything else was pretty much flopping. The idea of a 20 movie "extended universe" plot was ludicrous.

[CameronBornAndBred]

A synopsis of the weekend, what's coming, and what's been.
Grammarians and other easily irritated people, please read the last two paragraphs of this article. Specifically, the first sentence of each. Or should I say, finally, read them both.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/movies/new...cid=spartandhp

[JasonEvans]

I'll say it right now... there is a non-zero chance that "15:17 to Paris" comes out of nowhere in Feburary to impact our contest.



I'm getting a little bit of an American Sniper vibe here and I think there could be a lot of buzz about the fact that the 3 main characters are played by the real life guys who the film is about.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I'm getting a little bit of an American Sniper vibe here and I think there could be a lot of buzz about the fact that the 3 main characters are played by the real life guys who the film is about.

So it's safe to assume that they each survive?

[PackMan97]

So it's safe to assume that they each survive?

A bit like watching the Titanic and wondering if it sinks?

[CameronBornAndBred]

Looking ahead to Feb, 15:17 faces another Fifty Shades movie its opening weekend, and then Black Panther the following weekend. The weekend after that? Natalie Portman in Annihilation, which looks really cool. I ain't worried about 15:17.

[JasonEvans]

I'm really excited about Annihilation (because it is written and directed by Ex Machina's Alex Garland) but I am hearing it will be too weird for a mainstream audience. The studio seems to be very cautious about its prospects.

by all accounts Annihilation will retain the novel’s dreamy, psychological structure. Apparently, this became an issue behind the scenes, with producer David Ellison fearing the movie was “too intellectual” for mainstream audiences. Once Ellison’s suggestions of changing the ending and making Portman’s character more likeable were overruled, Paramount instead struck a deal with Netflix; the film would get a theatrical release in the U.S., Canada and China, but be released straight to Netflix everywhere else 17 days later.

-Jason "it is trading at a very modest $39 on HSX" Evans

[BD80]

I'm really excited about Annihilation (because it is written and directed by Ex Machina's Alex Garland) but I am hearing it will be too weird for a mainstream audience. The studio seems to be very cautious about its prospects.

"... Annihilation will retain the novel’s dreamy, psychological structure. Apparently, this became an issue behind the scenes, with producer David Ellison fearing the movie was “too intellectual” for mainstream audiences. ..."

-Jason "it is trading at a very modest $39 on HSX" Evans

Adam Sandler movies being the "sweet spot" as appropriately "intellectual" for mainstream audiences?


BTW: there is a little film being released this week by a cartoon filmmaker that I think could challenge the top 5. Predictions are $450 million - in the first weekend.

[davekay1971]

So I think Star Wars might make our top 5 after all. Phew!

Coco, meanwhile, appears to be at no risk of having it's thunder stolen by Ferdinand, which is opening, ahem, modestly. So, if a kids animated feature is going to be represented in our Top 5, Coco is likely to be it. It's holding great, dropping 30-35% per week, even with Ferdinand opening this weekend, so very likely to make $200 million during it's run.

[brevity]

I guess I can post the first meaningful chart.

$306,375,120 Thor: Ragnarok
$220,047,000 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
$219,456,347 Justice League
$150,810,896 Coco
$109,256,738 Wonder

Wonder is a Field choice. Based on my eye test, the only person who is 5-for-5 right now is Dr. Rosenrosen.

I talked myself out of voting for Coco.

Ordinarily I'd feel good about this -- Coco has been a soft #1 seed and has barely outpaced the mid-major Wonder -- but I really don't see what Field pick in this contest period will keep it out of the Top 5. Even hit Oscar bait films barely cross the $150 million threshold, and only two in the past 5 years (Lincoln and The Revenant) have topped $180 million.

[JasonEvans]

$150,810,896 Coco

Ordinarily I'd feel good about this -- Coco has been a soft #1 seed and has barely outpaced the mid-major Wonder -- but I really don't see what Field pick in this contest period will keep it out of the Top 5. Even hit Oscar bait films barely cross the $150 million threshold, and only two in the past 5 years (Lincoln and The Revenant) have topped $180 million.

I'm not sure why you feel good about Coco not being a major player in this contest. Schools are getting out this week and that means there will be a huge audience for family movies over the next 10 days or so. Coco almost bested Ferdinand this past weekend, even though Ferdinand was brand new and Coco was in week #4. That tells me that the Bull flick is going to fade rapidly and Coco will be the family choice this holiday season.

Coco made $15 mil over the last 7 days. I bet it tops that number over the next 7 days (leading up to Christmas Day). Ordinarily, that would be unthinkable for a film, but I bet Coco does it. Care to take that wager?

-Jason "I do agree that there don't seem to be a lot of field candidates left... maybe The Post, but I sorta doubt that one gets enough younger viewers to be a player" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

I talked myself out of voting for Coco.
Ordinarily I'd feel good about this --.

I'm not sure why you feel good about Coco not being a major player in this contest.

I thought Brevity was saying that he'd normally feel good about Coco not being a pick, in betting that a field choice would take that slot.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Any chance Downsizing makes a run into the field? Looks amusing and has a great cast.

[brevity]

I'm not sure why you feel good about Coco not being a major player in this contest. Schools are getting out this week and that means there will be a huge audience for family movies over the next 10 days or so. Coco almost bested Ferdinand this past weekend, even though Ferdinand was brand new and Coco was in week #4. That tells me that the Bull flick is going to fade rapidly and Coco will be the family choice this holiday season.

Coco made $15 mil over the last 7 days. I bet it tops that number over the next 7 days (leading up to Christmas Day). Ordinarily, that would be unthinkable for a film, but I bet Coco does it. Care to take that wager?

-Jason "I do agree that there don't seem to be a lot of field candidates left... maybe The Post, but I sorta doubt that one gets enough younger viewers to be a player" Evans

I thought Brevity was saying that he'd normally feel good about Coco not being a pick, in betting that a field choice would take that slot.

Kind of. To clarify:

1. Coco, more or less by default, will be the biggest animated hit of the winter. I have a mild doubt that it will make $15M over the next 7 days, but I wouldn't place a wager on that even if I felt strongly either way. As a person who is not a member of the media, or even social media, I am not motivated to make strong immediate reactions to everything. Pursue your holiday pie elsewhere.

2. At the time I made the picks, I just couldn't get excited about Coco. Part of it is a Pixar bias: I like almost all of their films when I get around to seeing them, but very rarely do I feel compelled to go. Part of it was the constant but incomplete marketing. For those that haven't seen the film, after months of TV ads, can you name the main character? His name is not Coco.

3. I played a hunch that Coco, like Doctor Strange last year, is not nearly the Top 5 lock others seemed to think it was. (I was wrong about Doctor Strange, which ended at #5.) After Star Wars, Thor: Ragnarok, Justice League, and Black Panther, I went with Field because none of the other options excited me either.

4. I felt some reassurance by the fact that Coco has had such underwhelming box office -- steady, but soft -- at a time when Hollywood gave up and decided to release almost nothing in its 2nd and 3rd weekends. I don't know if that feeling will last, especially if/when Coco crosses $200 million, but it's tempered anyway by an utter lack of competition, Field or otherwise.