MLB: The 2017 Post-Season

[JBDuke]

Time to start a new baseball thread! The regular season is a wrap, and the playoffs are about to start.

[Blue in the Face]

Yankees get a bit of a break, with Sano's leg injury keeping him off the roster tonight. Seemed like starting was out of the question, but he would have been a nice bat to have off the bench. Don't mind dodging that potential bullet.

[rasputin]

Yankees get a bit of a break, with Sano's leg injury keeping him off the roster tonight. Seemed like starting was out of the question, but he would have been a nice bat to have off the bench. Don't mind dodging that potential bullet.

As a Yankee fan, I'm nervous about this game. There has been a lot of talk about how, in recent years, the Yankees have owned the Twins. You can't expect to keep that up forever.

[Mal]

As a Yankee fan, I'm nervous about this game. There has been a lot of talk about how, in recent years, the Yankees have owned the Twins. You can't expect to keep that up forever.

That's exactly why I have a surprisingly optimistic feeling about this game tonight, as a Twins fan. Time for a little karmic balancing, regression to the mean, whatever.

All that said, there are enough Yanks fans I've heard express your sentiment above, that my superstitious side thinks you've probably overridden all that juju by your en masse acknowledgment that this is a trap game and fate owes you some payback.

Still, one game series and all. A timely Dozier 3-run homer could be all it takes in a one gamer. Ervin Santana's been only a shade less successful than Severino this season, in his best year in the majors, and he's got playoff experience, including 2 career postseason wins - both against the Yankees, vs. Severino's total lack thereof. The Twins winning would not surprise me here. They've had the best offense in the AL since the All-Star Break (yes, you read that right - the Minnesota Twins led the AL in runs scored and OPS over the second half of the season), much of it without Sano. The Yankees' rotation depth would show in a longer series, but tonight it's maybe a 60/40 game.

Regardless, should the Twins win this one, don't think we're even, Yankees fans. Not even close. Corey Koskie's double off Rivera in the 8th inning of Game 2 of the '04 ALDS, which fortuitously (for you) bounced over the fence to leave the likely game winning run - to give us a 2-0 lead going to the Humpdome with Johan Santana in line for Game 4 or 5 - stranded at third, will haunt us forever.* That game was the beginning of a 9-game postseason losing streak to the Yankees (12-game postseason losing streak overall). NY has knocked the Twins out of the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 times we've been there, though they were admittedly the better team on 3 of those occasions. Denying you the opportunity to be the underdog to Cleveland would only scratch the surface of our bloodlust.

* Total side note, but anyone want a fun Butterfly Effect/alternate history bit of lunacy? If that crazy unfortunate ground rule double doesn't happen and the Twins win, the term "Bloody sock" would never have entered the lexicon. No one would have known who Dave Roberts was before he became the Dodgers manager. And it's possible the Red Sox would still be waiting to end their misery, as it felt to this observer at least that coming back from 3-0 down to the Yankees was what really drove the stake through the heart of the Curse - they may not have gone on to win the WS that year or since without the Yanks being there. Which would mean the Cubs would also still be waiting to end their misery, because Theo Epstein probably wouldn't have left Boston when he did had he not won a couple Series already.

[rasputin]

That's exactly why I have a surprisingly optimistic feeling about this game tonight, as a Twins fan. Time for a little karmic balancing, regression to the mean, whatever.

All that said, there are enough Yanks fans I've heard express your sentiment above, that my superstitious side thinks you've probably overridden all that juju by your en masse acknowledgment that this is a trap game and fate owes you some payback.

Still, one game series and all. A timely Dozier 3-run homer could be all it takes in a one gamer. Ervin Santana's been only a shade less successful than Severino this season, in his best year in the majors, and he's got playoff experience, including 2 career postseason wins - both against the Yankees, vs. Severino's total lack thereof. The Twins winning would not surprise me here. They've had the best offense in the AL since the All-Star Break (yes, you read that right - the Minnesota Twins led the AL in runs scored and OPS over the second half of the season), much of it without Sano. The Yankees' rotation depth would show in a longer series, but tonight it's maybe a 60/40 game.

Regardless, should the Twins win this one, don't think we're even, Yankees fans. Not even close. Corey Koskie's double off Rivera in the 8th inning of Game 2 of the '04 ALDS, which fortuitously (for you) bounced over the fence to leave the likely game winning run - to give us a 2-0 lead going to the Humpdome with Johan Santana in line for Game 4 or 5 - stranded at third, will haunt us forever.* That game was the beginning of a 9-game postseason losing streak to the Yankees (12-game postseason losing streak overall). NY has knocked the Twins out of the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 times we've been there, though they were admittedly the better team on 3 of those occasions. Denying you the opportunity to be the underdog to Cleveland would only scratch the surface of our bloodlust.

* Total side note, but anyone want a fun Butterfly Effect/alternate history bit of lunacy? If that crazy unfortunate ground rule double doesn't happen and the Twins win, the term "Bloody sock" would never have entered the lexicon. No one would have known who Dave Roberts was before he became the Dodgers manager. And it's possible the Red Sox would still be waiting to end their misery, as it felt to this observer at least that coming back from 3-0 down to the Yankees was what really drove the stake through the heart of the Curse - they may not have gone on to win the WS that year or since without the Yanks being there. Which would mean the Cubs would also still be waiting to end their misery, because Theo Epstein probably wouldn't have left Boston when he did had he not won a couple Series already.

One minor correction: it's "ketchup-infused sock"

[crimsondevil]

One minor correction: it's "ketchup-infused sock"

Um, no.

http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopo...g13s-3-web.jpg (Warning: a bit gruesome)

[Mal]

Um, no.

Hey, if it successfully trolls Schilling, I'm all for it. The conspiracy theory only had legs in the first place because it seemed so plausible from him in particular. That it got him so absurdly riled up is the only reason it continued for so long, too.

Anyhoo, congrats, Yankees. You've dismissed my boyhood team from the postseason. Yet again.

26 years now since the Twins won their second Series.

I miss those days of Kirby and Hrbie, when the Yankees were temporarily dreadful. I also miss the early '00's, when Minnesota made the playoffs 4 out of 5 and 6 out of 9 years as a small market team, thumbing its nose at that [redacted] Bud Selig who conspired to contract the team, and everyone called the Twins the model franchise. Before other franchises co-opted that model, then moved on to Moneyball, then the power arms/power bats philosophy, and it took the Twins several years to realize the first had happened, much less the second and third, victimized by their own success and thinking their current philosophy would work forever. That whipsawed them into one of the worst rosters in the majors with one of the emptiest cupboards in the minors and a manager and front office that looked hopelessly out of phase with the rest of the game just a few seasons after their glory years, which tragically yielded nary a pennant.

The non-pitching portion of the Twins roster can rival almost anyone's right now, and the core is very young. But they're years away from having a pitching staff that's ready to win postseason series, or overtake the Indians to win the AL Central.

[Blue in the Face]

Timely, though apropos of nothing in particular, Zack Granite is a fantastic name. Is it better suited for a bruising blocking back or devastating middle linebacker than for a center fielder? Sure. (Though if he had started instead of Buxton, one can only imagine the punishment the Granite one would have meted out to the centerfield wall on that crash). But let's not be greedy, and instead just enjoy that that name was shared with a national sporting audience last night.

[chris13]

Has anyone heard from Olympic Fan? He was a prolific contributor to the board and the baseball threads abd he has been absent for a while.

[A-Tex Devil]

Shut down that Judge as MVP discussion please. It's only Altuve.

[A-Tex Devil]

Shut down that Judge as MVP discussion please. It's only Altuve.

Just saying.

[Blue in the Face]

You get all over the Cy Young winner, chasing him early and handing your solid pen a big lead. And still lose. Mr. Girardi did not distinguish himself last night. Having a 2nd go at Kluber as your best case scenario doesn't inspire overwhelming confidence.

[JBDuke]

The Nationals had to face a pitcher tailor-made to frustrate them in Hendricks, and it showed. They'll need a good performance from Gonzalez on the mound this evening, and the bats will need to wake up. Otherwise, we'll be looking at yet another NLDS exit.

[gotoguy]

Hendricks. Mr Imperturbable. Go Cubbies!

[CDu]

Last night's pitchers' duel was fantastic. Strasburg was really dialed in as usual. He allowed just three hard-hit balls all night, no extra-base hits, and one went for an out. Unfortunately for him, the other two came in the same inning, and both came with two outs and a runner in scoring position.

Equally unfortunate for the Nats was that Hendricks - he of the 88mph fastball but impeccable command - was also dealing. Hendricks reminds a bit of another soft-tossing former-Cub righty: Greg Maddux. All movement, location, and change of speed. He has quietly and surprisingly been one of the best in baseball the past two years, despite lacking overpowering stuff. All he does is get guys out.

Hoping for another pitcher's duel tonight. Or at least that Lester holds up his half of the deal.

[JBDuke]

The Nationals had to face a pitcher tailor-made to frustrate them in Hendricks, and it showed. They'll need a good performance from Gonzalez on the mound this evening, and the bats will need to wake up. Otherwise, we'll be looking at yet another NLDS exit.

Well, 16 innings into the NLDS, the Nationals had a total of one run on four hits. And then came the 8th inning yesterday...

I'm not sure I believe in momentum, but here's hoping the Nationals' bats have woken up for good, and not just for one inning.

[CDu]

Well, 16 innings into the NLDS, the Nationals had a total of one run on four hits. And then came the 8th inning yesterday...

I'm not sure I believe in momentum, but here's hoping the Nationals' bats have woken up for good, and not just for one inning.

Yep, middle relief has been a problem all season for the Cubs, and on Saturday it bit them firmly in the behind. Another dominant outing from the starter, but this time CJ Edwards and Mike Montgomery couldn't get it done.

I thought it was telling that the Cubs - with the tying run at the plate in Bryce Harper - chose to stick with the RHP rather than going to either of their lefties (Duensing or Montgomery). Maddon apparently didn't trust any of his options (other than Wade Davis) to face Rendon, so he gambled that Edwards could get Harper out and then handle the righty/righty matchup with Rendon. Turns out to have been a really bad decision, as Edwards served up a bomb to Harper and then allowed a hit to Rendon anyway.

I think if Maddon had a do-over, he'd have gone with Duensing to get Harper, then Davis to get Rendon and then to stay in for the 9th. Easy to second-guess now. I imagine that the non-closer part of the bullpen will cause heartburn for the Cubs for the rest of these playoffs.

Credit to the Nats' bats for coming alive. There is too much talent in that lineup to go 2 games with just 1 run. They were due, and they sure did cash in. And credit to the Nats' bullpen, which kept the Cubs off the board over the last 4 innings to allow the comeback to happen.

As for momentum? They say it is tomorrow's starting pitcher. Which, in this case, is a pair of pretty good arms (though I'd certainly give the edge to Scherzer, if he is healthy).

[JBDuke]

Yep, middle relief has been a problem all season for the Cubs, and on Saturday it bit them firmly in the behind. Another dominant outing from the starter, but this time CJ Edwards and Mike Montgomery couldn't get it done.

I thought it was telling that the Cubs - with the tying run at the plate in Bryce Harper - chose to stick with the RHP rather than going to either of their lefties (Duensing or Montgomery). Maddon apparently didn't trust any of his options (other than Wade Davis) to face Rendon, so he gambled that Edwards could get Harper out and then handle the righty/righty matchup with Rendon. Turns out to have been a really bad decision, as Edwards served up a bomb to Harper and then allowed a hit to Rendon anyway.

I think if Maddon had a do-over, he'd have gone with Duensing to get Harper, then Davis to get Rendon and then to stay in for the 9th. Easy to second-guess now. I imagine that the non-closer part of the bullpen will cause heartburn for the Cubs for the rest of these playoffs.

Credit to the Nats' bats for coming alive. There is too much talent in that lineup to go 2 games with just 1 run. They were due, and they sure did cash in. And credit to the Nats' bullpen, which kept the Cubs off the board over the last 4 innings to allow the comeback to happen.

As for momentum? They say it is tomorrow's starting pitcher. Which, in this case, is a pair of pretty good arms (though I'd certainly give the edge to Scherzer, if he is healthy).

Edwards has some impressive stuff, but when I've seen him - only a few times when the Nats and Cubs played - he's been inconsistent. When he's on, he's practically unhittable, but if he's not on, he can get rocked. We saw this in game 1 vs. game 2. We also saw it from him back in June, when he struck out 3 on just 13 pitches, but then came back a couple of games later and gave up 3 runs with only 1 out.

He's still young, so I imagine that he'll settle down some and be more consistent. (That curve ball is nasty...) Is that how it's been all year for him?

[CDu]

Edwards has some impressive stuff, but when I've seen him - only a few times when the Nats and Cubs played - he's been inconsistent. When he's on, he's practically unhittable, but if he's not on, he can get rocked. We saw this in game 1 vs. game 2. We also saw it from him back in June, when he struck out 3 on just 13 pitches, but then came back a couple of games later and gave up 3 runs with only 1 out.

He's still young, so I imagine that he'll settle down some and be more consistent. (That curve ball is nasty...) Is that how it's been all year for him?

This is spot on. It's pretty much him in a nutshell. He has electric stuff. And that is evidenced by his obscenely high K-rate (12.8 per 9 IP) and his even more obscenely low hits allowed (3.9 per 9 IP). The problem is that he doesn't always have command, as evidenced by his by his walk rate (5.2 per 9). When he is on, he is (as you said) untouchable. But he can also lose control and walk everyone and then serve up a long ball.

It's been the story of his short career. He is such a roller-coaster ride. Hopefully he figures it out. If he does, he has elite potential. But it has been like this his entire (brief career). You just don't know what you are going to get.

[Mal]

This is spot on. It's pretty much him in a nutshell. He has electric stuff. And that is evidenced by his obscenely high K-rate (12.8 per 9 IP) and his even more obscenely low hits allowed (3.9 per 9 IP). The problem is that he doesn't always have command, as evidenced by his by his walk rate (5.2 per 9). When he is on, he is (as you said) untouchable. But he can also lose control and walk everyone and then serve up a long ball.

It's been the story of his short career. He is such a roller-coaster ride. Hopefully he figures it out. If he does, he has elite potential. But it has been like this his entire (brief career). You just don't know what you are going to get.

My sense, as not a professional scout of course, is that when he does lack control or gets tight he tends to throw get-it-over curves that get crushed. Maybe he's been overcoached about the fact that even 98 mph fastballs become hittable at this level if they don't have much movement (and his doesn't) and a guy knows it's coming. So when he's behind in a count he tries to get cute. I think he'd be better served to develop a cutter he can get over in a pinch instead, because right now when he's struggling to find the plate guys can either sit dead red on his straight gas, or look for the slow curve right in the sweet spot, like Harper did Saturday on a 3-1 count.

Hopefully over time he figures out what to do with guys on base and/or when he doesn't have his best stuff (often coincident, of course). Saturday night did not surprise me in the least. I was at a game back in August where Lester started, the Cubs were in cruise control, then it got tight and Edwards entered. He came on with Harper on 1st and 1 out with a 1-run lead, and proceeded to give up a double to Zimmerman, plunk Rendon and then try to sneak a curve past Weiters, who tagged it for a grand slam. Same pitch he threw Harper. Game over.

Today would seem to ride on how long Scherzer can go. If he's on a pitch limit, it could be dangerous for Washington. If he has his good stuff early and is throwing strikes that may not matter much, but no doubt the Cubs will be trying to run the pitch count up the first couple innings. Quintana's likely to give up some runs with all the righthanded danger in the Nats lineup, so if Scherzer can get 6 innings in he's likely to leave with a lead and Washington has a strong chance of taking home field back and pushing the Cubs to the brink.

Interesting series - I think the Cubs would still feel fairly comfortable with Arrieta/Hendricks for Games 4 and 5 if they get there, particularly since Roark's slated for tomorrow for the Nats. So weird that Kyle Hendricks has become the guy they look to to win the biggest games when he came into last season as the projected No. 5 starter.