FB: Duke 27, Cheaters 17

[devildeac]

I don't quite remember the first two... ��

They should be in your childhood albums...

[Devilwin]

Hope we are ahead when the world ends...
http://about.att.com/story/att_audie..._the_sign.html

[jimsumner]

I don't quite remember the first two... 😎

It rained in 1893. A chilly drizzle.

[OldPhiKap]

It rained in 1893. A chilly drizzle.

I seem to recall that Mary Chestnut wrote a stirring description of the game.

[wilson]

Yes, we have never played the cheats in September. Once in March in the 1880s and mostly in November otherwise. The few times we played them in Oct or Dec are below.

1893 Oct 28th
1894 Oct 24th
1922 Oct 12th
1923 Oct 12th
1924 Oct 11th
1925 Oct 10th
1929 Oct 16th
1938 Oct 29th
1943 Oct 16th
2012 Oct 20th

1928 Dec 8th
1929 Dec 7th
1930 Dec 6th
1955 Dec 3rd

That last October matchup was right special, as I recall...

[Tripping William]

Hope we are ahead when the world ends...
http://about.att.com/story/att_audie..._the_sign.html

Someone should write a song about that.

[Indoor66]

Someone should write a song about that.

But wait for 2525...

[rasputin]

But wait for 2525...

If man is still alive . . .

[Pghdukie]

It rained in 1893. A chilly drizzle.

I was at those games with Moses and Noah. Moses couldn't hold his Belvedere and Noah left early because it was his bowling night. I left when the rain wouldn't let up. 40 days later ????

[peloton]

If man is still alive . . .

If woman can survive, they may find,
In the year 3535
Tar Heels will be cheatin', if they're still alive

[Bob Green]

I have no idea the over-under on this game...

63.5 points is the current over-under.

[BigWayne]

Someone should write a song about that.

Found an article on this topic at WaPo. About 20 paragraphs in, the guy predicting it hedges his bets and says the world won't end 9/23, but a lot of weird stuff will happen and the world "as we know it" will end in a few weeks. So the correct song would be this one.

As to the nut doing the predicting:

Meade said he never referred to himself as a Christian numerologist. He’s a researcher, he said, and he studied astronomy at a university in Kentucky, though he declined to say which one, citing safety reasons.

[CameronBornAndBred]

It rained in 1893. A chilly drizzle.

We tailgated during Matthew...we can do a chilly drizzle. (Pretty sure my socks are still wet.)

[ricks68]

We tailgated during Matthew...we can do a chilly drizzle. (Pretty sure my socks are still wet.)

Heck, we went in and sat through that entire Army game after the tailgate!😨 Anything for a win!

ricks

[Devilwin]

Ah, you don't believe, we're on the Eve, of destruction?

[OldPhiKap]

Ah, you don't believe, we're on the Eve, of destruction?

"And as California slides into the ocean,
Like the mystics and statistics say it will,
I predict this hotel will be standing
Until I pay my bill . . . ."

-- Zevon

Oh, and bring the pressure boys!!!!

[loran16]

So it's probably way too early for statistical analysis of either team, but I can't help but look at the statistical profiles of each team posted by Football Study Hall to try and think out how this game is going to play out.

You can find UNC's Stat profile here:
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pa...stical-profile
and Duke's here:
https://www.footballstudyhall.com/pa...stical-profile

Duke on Offense, Carolina on Defense

Duke's best area on Offense has been the run game, not the passing game, through 3 games. The Run game ranks 13th in the Country in "Success Rate" - basically a measure of how often the runs gain what you want to get on each type of down (so 50% of necessary yardage on first down, 70% on 2nd down, 100% on third down) - and 35th in the Country in Explosiveness - how often are we going for big plays. Basically in the running game, Duke is both efficient and explosive.

Passing wise, Duke has been average in efficiency (Dead Average in Success Rate) and well below average in Explosiveness. This should not be a surprise - Daniel Jones is still averaging only 5.9 yards per attempt outside of garbage time, which is basically last in the conference. Despite our love for the guy, he still hasn't' been as unleashed as other QBs in the conference.

The good news for Duke is that Carolina's D has been pretty bad at stopping either area (although facing Lavar Jackson is skewing things early). They're 100th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 79th in Defensive Rushing Explosiveness. So our run game should be able to get yards regularly and break free for a bunch of long games. Similarly, they're 104th in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 119th in Defensive Pass Explosiveness. So if Duke wants to let Jones loose, he should have some opportunities. Carolina only has 5 sacks in 3 games, so they're really not much of a threat to put pressure on the QB or the run game.

Duke should be able to move the ball and score on the Carolina D in most ways. That's not going to be the problem with this game.

Duke on Defense, Carolina on Offense

It's expected that [strikethrough]traitor[/strikethrough]Freshman QB Chazz Surratt will get the start for UNC, after he took all but two of their passing attempts vs Old Dominion. Surratt's been good, completing a higher % of passes than Jones (in 60% as many attempts but still) with no interceptions and 4 TDs, while also throwing for a much better 7.9 yards per attempt. The UNC Passing offense is highly efficient, with a 14% Passing Success Rate. Their explosiveness isn't very good, but a lot of that is the issues they've had with their other QB who likely won't play.

Running-wise, Carolina's a bit more mixed. They're 39th in Rushing Success rate, so fairly efficient if not as good as Duke, but lack the big explosive runs (99th in explosiveness) that the Duke run game has shown. Their two RBs are a Sophomore and Freshman and have very solid 5.6 and 5.5 yards per carry averages, but neither are explosive. Surratt isn't much of a threat when he runs either, with 26 rushes at only 3 YPC (Compare Daniel Jones who has 6.3 yards per carry).

This is where we really see whether Duke's pass D was the result of facing weak offenses or is for real. Duke's Passing D is 8th in Passing Success Rate, but 124th in Defensive Explosiveness - basically, opponents against Duke have either completed big plays through the air or just nothing. We saw that against Baylor. Still, Surratt, while young, is likely the best QB Duke has seen so far, so it'll be a big test of those efficiency numbers.

Duke's rushing D has been similar - #2 in the Country at Defensive Rushing Success Rate but only 61st (just better than NCAA average) in explosiveness. There's no real sign that UNC's run game is much better than our prior opponents, so I expect us to hold well against the run here too. That said, UNC is a more pass-happy team.

-------------------------------
In short, this probably will be a higher scoring game than we've seen so far - Duke's offense should be able to put up points on the board vs UNC, whose D is likely the worst of the opponents we've faced. But Duke has yet to face a QB who has looked good at all, and while some of that is on Duke's Defense, a lot of that has been just luck of the draw. And of course we're on the road for the first time. This is a big test with a much better statistical team in Miami after Carolina.

[Bob Green]

Carolina injuries article:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/c...173959291.html

All told, approximately a dozen players UNC expected to either start or play a significant role this season are attempting to overcome injuries. The Tar Heels could be without several starters on Saturday against the Blue Devils...The Tar Heels’ offensive line, especially, has been a patchwork creation reliant on fill-ins. Only two of its five starters on Saturday – R.J. Prince and Khaliel Rodgers – were expected to be in line to start during the preseason.

[OldPhiKap]

Carolina injuries article:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/c...173959291.html

Thanks, Bob.

[BigWayne]

Carolina injuries article:

http://www.newsobserver.com/sports/c...173959291.html

Don't be lulled into complacency. We need to be ready to fight against whatever set of poorly dressed young men they run out there.