This is the most confident that I feel about the upcoming season since 2011.

[COYS]

Duke lost their two best defenders from an average defensive team. Not coincidentally those two missing defenders were seniors who will be replaced by freshmen. This should be a sub par defensive team even defining par in terms of Duke defense in the OAD era since the 2009-2010 season. Maybe they can out score everyone but they'll have to get more from inside the 3-point line than last year sans Kennard, Jones, Jackson and Tatum. At this point the only thing we know is that we have Grayson and some guys who'll be drafted next summer who may or may not complement each other offensively and will play poor team defense. Without enough shooters to stretch the fooor I expect Duke to struggle in half court offense. Part of a successful Duke break is for a penetrator to kick the ball out to a shooter. One of our best penetrators is also the only reliable 3 point shooters . Who does Grayson kick the ball out to? Shouldn't we expect teams to pack the lane? I see a lot of talented players but poor defense and unbalanced offense.

I think it's overly simplistic to say that last year's team lost two veteran defenders therefore this year will be worse, defensively. For one, defense is very much dependent on how the team fits together. I would argue that Duke looked to be in even worse shape after the 2009 season when Gerald Henderson entered the draft and Elliot Williams, who came on strong as a quick, athletic on the ball defender, transferred. Duke brought in Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly, and an early-enrolling, defensively-challenged Andre Dawkins. It would have been easy to assume that given the lack of long, athletic wing players in the incoming class, the 2010 team would be worse on defense. But 2010 ended up being a strong defensive team because the pieces fit together better and K designed a defense that worked. 2017 could prove to be the same.

Also, this coming season (if it is injury free knock on wood) will give us a good data point as to whether or not Duke's relative struggles on defense from 2012-2017 have been due to increased reliance on freshman OAD's or just bad injury luck (Ryan in 2012 and 2013, Amile in 2016, virtually everyone in 2017). The narrative gets repeated that Duke was bad on D in 2017 because of freshmen, but Luke, Matt, Amile, and Grayson played the most minutes along with freshman Jayson. Out of those guys, it was Luke who was really the worst defender. How would the team have looked with a fully healthy Harry Giles using his insane athleticism to block shots and grab boards after having a full summer plus preaseason games to gel with the team? Probably a lot better. So it's entirely possible that Duke was bad on D in 2017 because one of our star freshmen was not full strength, not because we lacked experience. The 2014 team, by far the worse in this group, also only started one freshman. Jabari was bad on defense, but Amile (junior), Quinn (junior), Rasheed (sophomore), Andre (fifth year senior), Rodney (redshirt soph), Tyler (senior), Josh (senior) could've/should've formed a strong, experienced core around which to build a strong defense if experience were the most important part of playing good D. Instead, that team had no depth on the interior and no cohesion on the perimeter on D, and it doomed them. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have a team of veteran, established defenders ready to go to work next year. I do, however, remain unconvinced that freshmen have been the primary culprit of Duke's inconsistencies on D. I think injuries and unbalanced roster construction (two things that are often related) are likely bigger factors. I also wonder how much the hand-check rules have affected K's preference for aggressive MTM.

As for offense, if Coach K has proven one thing, it is that he can create an efficient offense out of many different combinations of personnel. Duke is on a nine year streak of top 10 KenPom offenses with many of those years being in the top 5. Duke has only been ranked outside the top 15 in KenPom ONCE (2007, which was a very good defensive team despite relying heavily on freshman) in the entire KenPom era. It is definitely an open question as to whether or not all the new faces can form a complementary offensive attack. However, K and the staff have answered that question virtually every season this century with a resounding "yes." While I am anxious to see if Tre, Marvin and Gary can hit perimeter shots with enough regularity to keep the lane open, I will be very surprised if Coach K can't mold this team into a strong offensive unit somehow.

Anyway, I definitely understand being cautious about expectations going into next season. There are a lot of unknowns and a lack of experience. But I also don't think it's logical to conclude that Duke's D will be bad just because there will be a lot of freshmen on the court.

[grad_devil]

Fun fact - UNCA guard Rousey has transferred to Marquette to play for Wojo.

As you probably know, since he transferred in May '15, he's eligible to play this season.

[DukeFanSince1990]

This seemed like a good place to drop this snippet.

https://www.facebook.com/DukeMBB/vid...5809174204456/

Coach gives us glimpse into what he is thinking about the coming up season.

[Billy Dat]

yes

UK vs UNCA - 2013

4 freshmen
1 sophomore

Good find, I, too, was searching around the recent UK teams but couldn't dig up all the info I needed. They were ranked #1 to start the year.

[Troublemaker]

Blue Ribbon is out with their preseason top 25: https://blueribbonyearbook.com/blogs...eason-rankings

They have Duke #3 behind Zona and MSU, which I'm fine with

Grayson 1st team AA, Marvin 2nd team AA

Bonzie Colson NPOY (interesting selection)

Michael Porter NFOY

[arnie]

Blue Ribbon is out with their preseason top 25: https://blueribbonyearbook.com/blogs...eason-rankings

They have Duke #3 behind Zona and MSU, which I'm fine with

Grayson 1st team AA, Marvin 2nd team AA

Bonzie Colson NPOY (interesting selection)

Michael Porter NFOY

I also think they have it as right as a preseason poll can be "right".

[proelitedota]

New vid

https://twitter.com/DukeMBB/status/910201936527462403

Effortless crossover form Duvall.