What Penalties will the NCAA give the Cheats?

[richardjackson199]

What penalties will the NCAA actually give to the cheats? You can pick multiple answers. Loss of 2005 and 2009 Natty options assume vacated wins.

There may be other better options to include. If so just let me know, and I can start a new poll. I have no clue what the NCAA can or will do in a situation like this.

I fear they keep all their banners, even though at least 2 should come down.

[ipatent]

You have to keep in mind that this involved players in multiple sports, so the death penalty in just one sport would seem unlikely. It wouldn't surprise me to see vacated wins across multiple teams. 2005 and/or 2009 could be at risk.

[richardjackson199]

You have to keep in mind that this involved players in multiple sports, so the death penalty in just one sport would seem unlikely. It wouldn't surprise me to see vacated wins across multiple teams. 2005 and/or 2009 could be at risk.

Does the NCAA have access to enough information to say that specific players were ineligible? That seems like what they would base vacated titles on. Everyone knows specific players on 2005 and 2009 teams should have been ineligible. McCants basically admitted UNC helped him cheat on ESPN.

But I'm afraid NCAA will say they don't have access to the transcripts. Hopefully I'm wrong, and maybe I am - I don't know enough about it.

[Duke95]

MBB: Vacate all wins during Crowder paper class scandal that involved athletes taking fake Crowder classes, including 2005 and 2009 titles.
1-2 year post-season ban, MBB/FB/WBB
3 scholarship losses in MBB.
5 scholarship losses FB.

[richardjackson199]

MBB: Vacate all wins during Crowder paper class scandal that involved athletes taking fake Crowder classes, including 2005 and 2009 titles.
1-2 year post-season ban, MBB/FB/WBB
3 scholarship losses in MBB.
5 scholarship losses FB.

I definitely think what you propose is exactly what should happen, plus the fines/probation.
I think it ends up 2 year post-season bans. I think they'll want to take the banners but will puss out. So to compensate, they'll make post-season bans 2 years.

[duke4ever19]

Question: Of the two titles -- 2005 and 2009 -- which is considered the most "tainted?"

I know McCants was a member of the '05 team and he has a lot of notoriety because he was vocal about the cheating, but that doesn't necessarily mean the 2005 team has the most skeletons in the closet.

[richardjackson199]

Question: Of the two titles -- 2005 and 2009 -- which is considered the most "tainted?"

I know McCants was a member of the '05 team and he has a lot of notoriety because he was vocal about the cheating, but that doesn't necessarily mean the 2005 team has the most skeletons in the closet.

I would say both are equally tainted.

[cbarry]

Anything less than the 2005 and 2009 MBB banners coming down = they skate = (unfortunately) the most likely outcome. The NCAA doesn't have the cajones to take 2 nattys from the Cheats, despite the egregious for 18+ years.

[plimnko]

if they do skate, EVERY team EVER penalized by the ncaa should have grounds to sue the ncaa for any revenue lost by the penalties imposed upon them. if what we've seen from the wainstein report and dan kane's articles in the n&o are even close to accurate, how can others be penalized and the cheat heels not? otherwise, the ncaa needs to be dissolved.

[cbarry]

I agree! But the NCAA will likely give them a few years of probation in a few sports, reductions in scholarships, post-season ban for a couple of years, blah blah blah, that allows the NCAA to say "we did something, fairly substantial." But to me, if you allow them to keep the 2005 and 2009 banners (as the NCAA surely will do), whatever penalty that is given to the Cheats is seen as a slap on the wrist.

if they do skate, EVERY team EVER penalized by the ncaa should have grounds to sue the ncaa for any revenue lost by the penalties imposed upon them. if what we've seen from the wainstein report and dan kane's articles in the n&o are even close to accurate, how can others be penalized and the cheat heels not? otherwise, the ncaa needs to be dissolved.

[Native]

I agree! But the NCAA will likely give them a few years of probation in a few sports, reductions in scholarships, post-season ban for a couple of years, blah blah blah, that allows the NCAA to say "we did something, fairly substantial." But to me, if you allow them to keep the 2005 and 2009 banners (as the NCAA surely will do), whatever penalty that is given to the Cheats is seen as a slap on the wrist.

This. The NCAA will do just enough to save face, and nothing more.

[duke2x]

My gut says that the NCAA would assess light probation/scholarship/show-cause penalties and let the 2005/2009/2017? banners stay if the NCAA was the only one with access to the transcripts. I'm really interested to hear how the NCAA justifies a decision to keep 2005. The public release of McCants's transcript made the invalidity of that title pretty clear, and the NCAA doesn't have to look at one minute of class content to justify removal. With that information public, you will have every Alabama, Oklahoma, Kentucky, etc. adopting the UNC curricular model to win in football and basketball.

[PackMan97]

All of the above, except skating. UNC is going to get nailed to the cross. We will talk about UNC for decades like folks have talked about SMU.

[Olympic Fan]

I will go on record and bet serious money (or pie?) that (1) no death penalty and (2) they will not skate.

But where do the penalties fall in between?

I am very confident that UNC as a school gets probation and a hefty fine because the failures here are institutional (the Lack of Institutional Control charge is a lock). But how will that translate to individual sports -- especially men's basketball and football? I know there are UNC apologists who suggest that football is safe because they were already penalized in 2011, but that was for a different issue (mostly involving agents and cheating tutors). Football has NOT been slapped for the AFAM scandal.

The NCAA has two penalty options available: they can go into the past and vacate wins or they can look to the future and make scholarship cuts and impose postseason bans. If they fnd UNC guilty of the current charges, I believe they will do both.

I think that after the Louisville case (which looks like it's going to cost Louisville its 2013 national title), that UNC's 2005 and 2009 titles are in jeopardy. Their 2007 and 2008 ACC championships are also in jeopardy. The UNC football team doesn't have a lot to vacate (their 2015 Coastal Division title is safe) except a lot of football wins in the first decade of this century.

Moving forward, I think there will be scholarship reductions in both sports ... I'm less certain about postseason bans, but I would guess one year in both football and basketball.

Also, Roy Williams will be suspended -- for up to nine games. That's under the new rule that says that a coach can be penalized for violations that occur under their watch, whether they knew about it or not. Larry Brown, Jim Boeheim and Rick Pitino have all been nailed for things the NCAA never proved they knew.

UNC is unlikely to get the penalty we think they deserve, but I strongly believe they will be hammered -- the school for sure, but also in football and men's basketball -- they will have games vacated, scholarships lost, a head coach suspended (not Fedora, he arrived after the scope of the inquiry) ... and, the one I'm less certain of, at least a brief post season ban in both sports.

PS I know many on this board think the NCAA is corrupt and will protect UNC. I disagree. I think the NCAA is often incompetent and inefficient, but I honestly think the people I know in the organization are genuine in their attempts to keep college sports clean. The UNC case does cut to the core of the organization, since the NCAA is founded on the idea that the individual schools will act in concert to police themselves and will cooperate to punish any wrongdoing. The UNC attitude -- yes, we cheated, but you can't penalize us because of a technicality in the rules -- will destroy the NCAA is allowed to prosper. If I'm wrong and UNC does not get heavy penalties, I'll surrender to the cynics and join in your contempt for the NCAA. But I think they will surprise you.

[budwom]

^ though running the risk of a jinx, I tend to agree. The case is so egregious that they (NCAA) should just go out of business if they don't levy a hefty penalty. Plus there is reason to believe the delaying, denying and obfuscating
tactics of unc (as they whine about the length of the case) has made few friends within the NCAA. But we'll see...

[richardjackson199]

I will go on record and bet serious money (or pie?) that (1) no death penalty and (2) they will not skate.

But where do the penalties fall in between?

I am very confident that UNC as a school gets probation and a hefty fine because the failures here are institutional (the Lack of Institutional Control charge is a lock). But how will that translate to individual sports -- especially men's basketball and football? I know there are UNC apologists who suggest that football is safe because they were already penalized in 2011, but that was for a different issue (mostly involving agents and cheating tutors). Football has NOT been slapped for the AFAM scandal.

The NCAA has two penalty options available: they can go into the past and vacate wins or they can look to the future and make scholarship cuts and impose postseason bans. If they fnd UNC guilty of the current charges, I believe they will do both.

I think that after the Louisville case (which looks like it's going to cost Louisville its 2013 national title), that UNC's 2005 and 2009 titles are in jeopardy. Their 2007 and 2008 ACC championships are also in jeopardy. The UNC football team doesn't have a lot to vacate (their 2015 Coastal Division title is safe) except a lot of football wins in the first decade of this century.

Moving forward, I think there will be scholarship reductions in both sports ... I'm less certain about postseason bans, but I would guess one year in both football and basketball.

Also, Roy Williams will be suspended -- for up to nine games. That's under the new rule that says that a coach can be penalized for violations that occur under their watch, whether they knew about it or not. Larry Brown, Jim Boeheim and Rick Pitino have all been nailed for things the NCAA never proved they knew.

UNC is unlikely to get the penalty we think they deserve, but I strongly believe they will be hammered -- the school for sure, but also in football and men's basketball -- they will have games vacated, scholarships lost, a head coach suspended (not Fedora, he arrived after the scope of the inquiry) ... and, the one I'm less certain of, at least a brief post season ban in both sports.

PS I know many on this board think the NCAA is corrupt and will protect UNC. I disagree. I think the NCAA is often incompetent and inefficient, but I honestly think the people I know in the organization are genuine in their attempts to keep college sports clean. The UNC case does cut to the core of the organization, since the NCAA is founded on the idea that the individual schools will act in concert to police themselves and will cooperate to punish any wrongdoing. The UNC attitude -- yes, we cheated, but you can't penalize us because of a technicality in the rules -- will destroy the NCAA is allowed to prosper. If I'm wrong and UNC does not get heavy penalties, I'll surrender to the cynics and join in your contempt for the NCAA. But I think they will surprise you.

I agree with most everything you said. I can be about as cynical as they come, but in this case, I do believe the NCAA wants to get this right and punish UNC severely.

The one thing you said that surprises me, and in a good way, is that you seem more confident about the vacated wins and loss of both Natty's than the postseason bans. Are you not afraid that the NCAA will say they can't prove exactly which players were ineligible without seeing the transcripts, because UNC isn't giving them that information and those players aren't talking. Thus they leave the Natty's up because they know UNC will sue, and maybe win if they try to take the banners away? Like Tom Cruise lawyer said in A Few Good Men - "It doesn't matter what I know, it only matters what I can prove." (or something like that). Or do you think the NCAA actually has enough to vacate those wins and take down the banners? I just don't know enough about it.

I think the post-season ban seems likely 1 year if banners come down, 2 years if they don't. Why wouldn't they do that? I guess the post-season ban punishes players who were not involved. But at this point all those players know they are risking that by choosing to play for UNC, which is why Roy can't land any more 5 stars right now.

I think you're definitely right about suspending Ol Roy for about 9 games. I can't wait to see his sanctimonious reaction to that. I should have included that option in the poll - I forgot about suspending the coach for all "that junk."

It was refreshing to read your post and see some optimism. I was surprised that after starting to get a decent sample of DBR readership that barely 30% thought either banner would come down. I figured I might be in the minority when I voted that.

If the NCAA does something close to what you predict, I will be impressed. If they don't, UNC's sickening strategy will have worked. The massive delay allowed them to win another Natty, and they'll keep the ones they had.

[Olympic Fan]

The one thing you said that surprises me, and in a good way, is that you seem more confident about the vacated wins and loss of both Natty's than the postseason bans. Are you not afraid that the NCAA will say they can't prove exactly which players were ineligible without seeing the transcripts, because UNC isn't giving them that information and those players aren't talking. Thus they leave the Natty's up because they know UNC will sue, and maybe win if they try to take the banners away? Like Tom Cruise lawyer said in A Few Good Men - "It doesn't matter what I know, it only matters what I can prove." (or something like that). Or do you think the NCAA actually has enough to vacate those wins and take down the banners? I just don't know enough about it.

But the NCAA DOES see the transcripts ... UNC has used FERPA to protect its cheating from public scrutiny, but that doesn't apply to the NCAA. Every scholar-athlete (as much as I gag to use that term to refer to an UNC player) has to sign a waiver of his FERPA rights that specifically allows the NCAA to examine his transcripts in the case of alleged violation.

If the NCAA doesn't rip down the banners, it won't be because they don't have access to the transcripts.

[richardjackson199]

Found it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZVYcpO6Mgk

But I also live in the dream world, and I don't know the law or the NCAA.

I hope they have enough to vacate those wins. McCants was laughing that he got Deans List for doing nothing. And UNC has a bar named after Hansbrough's 4 year attendance in his Swahili class - He's Not Here. They have another bar called The Library, which is the closest any of them got to somewhere they could do research for their sham paper classes.

[richardjackson199]

But the NCAA DOES see the transcripts ... UNC has used FERPA to protect its cheating from public scrutiny, but that doesn't apply to the NCAA. Every scholar-athlete (as much as I gag to use that term to refer to an UNC player) has to sign a waiver of his FERPA rights that specifically allows the NCAA to examine his transcripts in the case of alleged violation.

If the NCAA doesn't rip down the banners, it won't be because they don't have access to the transcripts.

Awesome - thanks! I didn't know that.

Those banners really are in jeopardy.

I just can't imagine the NCAA and Sankey going light on the cheats after they basically tried to give the NCAA the middle finger. How stupid was that after the NCAA had released a lighter amended NOA that didn't even mention men's hoops?

[plimnko]

i don't really care if or think the cheats will receive the death penalty. i would be happy with vacating ALL wins, removing all championships (acc and national) banners will playing ineligible players, receive fines, loss of scholarships and a couple of years ban from post season play. and after all the stalling, denying, and other delaying tactics, i would like to see a public allocution of what they knowingly did over the past 18 or so years.

also, there needs to be an asterisk in the record books indicating hansbrough passed jj in scoring while cheating and playing in games in which he was academically ineligible.