MBB Off-season Thread

[sagegrouse]

I read an "analysis" recently on Bleacher Report that suggested Tucker would start ahead of Trent because Allen, Duval and Trent were Duke's only guards and Duke would need Trent to come off the bench and spell Allen and Duval.

The flaws with this reasoning are so apparent that I'll not even bother.

If there's a surprise starter early in the season, don't you think it would be a returning player like DeLaurier or White -- someone who has a year working under the Duke system.

Anyway, my working assumption is that all freshmen will be pretty bad at Duke team defense (and maybe individual defense) until mid-season. I hope I am wrong, but my memories are pretty strong over the past 6-7 years.

[Kedsy]

Anyway, my working assumption is that all freshmen will be pretty bad at Duke team defense (and maybe individual defense) until mid-season. I hope I am wrong, but my memories are pretty strong over the past 6-7 years.

I don't know. I don't think Rasheed Sulaimon was a bad defender as a freshman. Ditto for Justise Winslow, Tyler Thornton, even Derryck Thornton (though he wasn't great). Matt Jones didn't play much as a freshman, but he was at least adequate defensively when he did. It was only a few games, but even Kyrie Irving didn't seem bad at defense at Duke (though he doesn't seem particularly good in the NBA).

Sure, the more years someone is at Duke, the better his D, but freshmen can be good at defense, even really good. It depends on the player.

[CDu]

I don't know. I don't think Rasheed Sulaimon was a bad defender as a freshman. Ditto for Justise Winslow, Tyler Thornton, even Derryck Thornton (though he wasn't great). Matt Jones didn't play much as a freshman, but he was at least adequate defensively when he did. It was only a few games, but even Kyrie Irving didn't seem bad at defense at Duke (though he doesn't seem particularly good in the NBA).

Sure, the more years someone is at Duke, the better his D, but freshmen can be good at defense, even really good. It depends on the player.

I believe Coach K mentioned how advanced defensively Jones was, even as a freshman. Duhon was pretty darn good defensively as a frosh too, as was (of course) Battier.

It is true that freshmen are typically not as prepared defensively (either mentally, physically, or both) as more experienced players. But there have certainly been examples of freshmen who were good defenders.

I would argue that the one-and-done era has probably reduced the deficit that top-tier freshmen face. Typically, the upperclassmen (I mean juniors and seniors) aren't as talented as they were 15-20 years ago, because the best freshmen and sophomores almost all head to the NBA. So while they face a deficit in age/experience/physical maturity, elite freshmen have a bigger talent edge to help offset their deficits elsewhere.

[Kedsy]

I believe Coach K mentioned how advanced defensively Jones was, even as a freshman. Duhon was pretty darn good defensively as a frosh too, as was (of course) Battier.

Grant Hill and Bobby Hurley and Shelden Williams (though he fouled a lot) too. And others. But Sage said the last 6 or 7 years, so I limited my list accordingly.

[rsvman]

I think Sage's point referred more strongly to team defense than to individual defense, and I think it was a good point.

I would expect team defense to get stronger as the season progresses. Although this is likely true for all seasons, perhaps it is more so when the team is largely made up of freshmen, which is what I took from Sage's original post.

[kAzE]

Lots of kids are great defenders as freshmen.

Here are some examples: Josh Jackson, De'Aaron Fox, Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd Gilchrist, Justise Winslow, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Karl Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Aaron Gordon, Joel Embiid, Gary Harris, Nerlens Noel, Steven Adams.

It's not that freshmen are just generally worse at defense than offense. Defense is a skill that improves over time, just like offense. The only difference is that defense is more reliant on 5 guys working together as one than offense. Therefore, defense improves more noticeably than offense over time after a kid has joined the program, even though in reality, their actual offensive and defensive skill are probably more or less on the same trajectory.

Duke as a program has pretty clearly favored offense over defense when it comes to recruiting in the past 5 years. It's not that we don't go after guys who are good defenders (Winslow), but some of our biggest names in that span include Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Luke Kennard, and Tyus Jones. These guys were not recruited for their defensive prowess. Even a guy like Jayson Tatum, who I thought was pretty good on defense, was still a top recruiting priority because of his offensive skills.

However, I am pretty optimistic that Trevon Duval, Gary Trent, and Marvin Bagley are pretty solid (and maybe even great) defenders. They might not be perfect on day 1, but I perceive them to be closer to the first group players that I listed, rather than the latter group.

[Kedsy]

However, I am pretty optimistic that Trevon Duval, Gary Trent, and Marvin Bagley are pretty solid (and maybe even great) defenders. They might not be perfect on day 1, but I perceive them to be closer to the first group players that I listed, rather than the latter group.

I just read three or four scouting reports on Gary Trent. They all question his lateral quickness and team defensive ability. So I'm not sure he belongs on your list of solid, maybe great, defenders as a freshman.

[kAzE]

I just read three or four scouting reports on Gary Trent. They all question his lateral quickness and team defensive ability. So I'm not sure he belongs on your list of solid, maybe great, defenders as a freshman.

While it's true that lateral quickness is definitely useful for defense, how are these scouting reports questioning his "team defensive ability?"

Maybe I just have a different idea of what that means, but I view "team defensive ability" as a player's ability to understand correct positioning and role in relation to his teammates on the floor. Essentially, it's almost totally based on the player's intelligence and ability to react to what is happening with the ball and the other players on the floor.

Matt Jones was definitely not a big time lateral quickness guy. He was great on D because he was so smart and extremely prudent in making the correct decisions on defense. So I could see scouting reports criticizing Gray's lack of ideal athletic attributes (and I agree, he's not extremely quick), but it seems strange to call out his team defensive ability right now. It's too early to make a call on that IMO.

[Olympic Fan]

I found this evaluation of Trent on NBA Draft Express:

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Gary-Trent-82914/

Under the PROS:

-Can move his feet and stay in front when he's locked in and competing. Aggressive playing the passing lanes and has good instincts for coming up with steals

Under the CONS

-Inconsistent in his approach defensively. Doesn't always put enough pride in on this end of the floor. Doesn't have standout lateral quickness, so will get roasted at times off the bounce. Likes to gamble for steals

I also found this blub at NBA Draft Room:

http://www.nbadraftroom.com/2017/02/gary-trent-jr.html

Doesn't project as a great perimeter defender in the NBA and might be a step slow by NBA standards.

ESPN's profile doesn't mention his lateral quickness nor his defensive prowess, one way or another. Scout and 247 both link to a Sports Illustrated profile that also focuses on his offensive game and doesn't mention defense.

[NSDukeFan]

While it's true that lateral quickness is definitely useful for defense, how are these scouting reports questioning his "team defensive ability?"

Maybe I just have a different idea of what that means, but I view "team defensive ability" as a player's ability to understand correct positioning and role in relation to his teammates on the floor. Essentially, it's almost totally based on the player's intelligence and ability to react to what is happening with the ball and the other players on the floor.

Matt Jones was definitely not a big time lateral quickness guy. He was great on D because he was so smart and extremely prudent in making the correct decisions on defense. So I could see scouting reports criticizing Gray's lack of ideal athletic attributes (and I agree, he's not extremely quick), but it seems strange to call out his team defensive ability right now. It's too early to make a call on that IMO.

Wouldn't Trent have played in quite a few games as part of teams already? I haven't seen his defensive skills at all, but wouldn't people have had quite a number of chances to observe his team defensive skills?

[kAzE]

Wouldn't Trent have played in quite a few games as part of teams already? I haven't seen his defensive skills at all, but wouldn't people have had quite a number of chances to observe his team defensive skills?

True, but he also hasn't been coached by a world-class coaching staff until very recently, either.

[sagegrouse]

Wouldn't Trent have played in quite a few games as part of teams already? I haven't seen his defensive skills at all, but wouldn't people have had quite a number of chances to observe his team defensive skills?

Isn't the point that is HS these top recruits are so physically superior that they can get by on athleticism not technique. And then there's Duke team defense... which for many top players will be a whole new world.

[MartyClark]

Went to a MLB game this week. Thanks to a friend, I had an opportunity to sit at the press club level in what, essentially, is a luxurious owners box. Lots of fun.

I sat next to a prominent, Division I hockey coach and really enjoyed the conversation. He is a Duke fan and greatly admires K. He admires K for being genuine and tough with his players.

Sorry for the tangent here, but it's enjoyable to find a guy who, in a somewhat similar situation, really admires K.

[Olympic Fan]

ESPN has an insider article up today that lists the top 25 players in college basketball this coming season. Duke did fairly well on the list:

1. Marvin Bagley
2. Grayson Allen
15. Wendell Carter
21. Trevon Duval

I can't believe they didn't include Jack White!

[devildeac]

ESPN has an insider article up today that lists the top 25 players in college basketball this coming season. Duke did fairly well on the list:

1. Marvin Bagley
2. Grayson Allen
15. Wendell Carter
21. Trevon Duval

I can't believe they didn't include Jack White!

I'd bet he's on the other side of the equator, err, equation.

[kAzE]

If Marvin and Grayson really are the top 2 players in the country, then we are almost a lock to be a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, according to historical precedence. However, it is far from a guarantee of postseason success.

Here's a complete (to the best of my knowledge) list of teammates who were both AP 1st team All-Americans in the same season:

2010: John Wall & DeMarcus Cousins (Sweet 16 - HAHA)
2006: JJ Redick & Shelden Williams (Elite 8)
2001: Shane Battier & Jason Williams (National Champions)
1998: Raef LaFrentz & Paul Pierce (Round of 32)
1998: Mike Bibby & Miles Simon (Elite 8)
1991: Stacey Augmon and Larry Johnson (Lost to Duke )
1984: Michael Jordan and Sam Perkins (Sweet 16)
1976: Scott May & Kent Benson (Undefeated)
1974: Bill Walton & Jamaal Wilkes (Final Four)

Interestingly, only 2 such teams have won it all: Duke in 2001, and Indiana in 1976.

[Kedsy]

2006: JJ Redick & Shelden Williams (Elite 8)

If only...

[BD80]

If Marvin and Grayson really are the top 2 players in the country, then we are almost a lock to be a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, according to historical precedence. However, it is far from a guarantee of postseason success.

Here's a complete (to the best of my knowledge) list of teammates who were both AP 1st team All-Americans in the same season:

2010: John Wall & DeMarcus Cousins (Sweet 16 - HAHA)
2006: JJ Redick & Shelden Williams (Elite 8)
2001: Shane Battier & Jason Williams (National Champions)
1998: Raef LaFrentz & Paul Pierce (Round of 32)
1998: Mike Bibby & Miles Simon (Elite 8)
1991: Stacey Augmon and Larry Johnson (Lost to Duke )
1984: Michael Jordan and Sam Perkins (Sweet 16)
1976: Scott May & Kent Benson (Undefeated)
1974: Bill Walton & Jamaal Wilkes (Final Four)

Interestingly, only 2 such teams have won it all: Duke in 2001, and Indiana in 1976.

But we haven't seen MBIII play yet!


Which makes him a combination of Shelden Williams, Shane Battier, Raef LaFrentz, Paul Pierce, Stacey Augmon, Larry Johnson, Sam Perkins, Scott May, Kent Benson, Bill Walton & Jamaal Wilkes

[JasonEvans]

If Marvin and Grayson really are the top 2 players in the country, then we are almost a lock to be a #1 seed in the NCAA tournament, according to historical precedence. However, it is far from a guarantee of postseason success.

I would need to search the internets to know for sure, but I pretty vividly recall that at this time last year ESPN said that Grayson Allen and Jayson Tatum were the number one and number three players in college basketball. I think Harry Giles was in the top 5 or so too. Of course, injuries and distractions took a pretty severe toll on those rankings, but it is worth noting as we approach another season where everyone says the Duke Blue Devils have far and away the most talent in college basketball.

Jason "I was supremely confident we were going to win 35+ games a year ago...and am again this season" Evans

[kAzE]

I would need to search the internets to know for sure, but I pretty vividly recall that at this time last year ESPN said that Grayson Allen and Jayson Tatum were the number one and number three players in college basketball. I think Harry Giles was in the top 5 or so too. Of course, injuries and distractions took a pretty severe toll on those rankings, but it is worth noting as we approach another season where everyone says the Duke Blue Devils have far and away the most talent in college basketball.

Jason "I was supremely confident we were going to win 35+ games a year ago...and am again this season" Evans

Which is why I went with AP's 1st Team AA list, and not ESPN's preseason click bait.

I also said "If Marvin and Grayson really are the top 2 players," not "because ESPN said they are the top 2 players."