Grayson Allen points chase: to 2000 and beyond

[Indoor66]

There is always an argument made for the "next best player not currently in the rafters" to be in the rafters.

I love Kyle and he is a strong candidate, but no more distinctive than a number of other candidates...

The career scoring list is meaningful and representative, but not conclusive. Kyle should be acknowledged for his position on that list. How do you value Jack Marin and Bob Verga, both of whom played virtually every game they were eligible to play (ok, strep throat and too much partying lost him 2 games), yet have 1/2 the career games that Kyle had? And not because they elected to leave early, but because...well, that's all folks. For 4 year players with plenty of games played, why not Alarie as the "next best player not to be in the rafters", etc.

I believe you are incorrect about that. Verga was the only starter not penalized for the New Years time party. He started and scored 38 against Penn State. Also, he played in the KY game but was hobbled by the strep throat.

[Olympic Fan]

Just to be clear, I think Verga is the strongest player NOT in the rafters.

In fact, his career achievements are almost the same as Jeff Mullins, who is up there.

It's true that he didn't play as many games as Singler and other recent candidates, but he averaged 21.98 points a game in his 80 career games -- which is second only to Heyman (25.11) in Duke history. He averaged 49.0 percent from the floor which is phenomenal for a guy who shot from long-range as much as Verga.

He was three-times first-team All-ACC and was a consensus first-team All-America (he not only had a better scoring average than Mullins, but neither Mullins nor Marin were ever a consensus first-team All-American). He was also first-team All-ABA with the Carolina Cougars.

Of all the guys left out, Verga is at the front of the line.

To get back on topic the question should be: Can Grayson Allen cut to the front of the line with a strong senior season?

If he finishes as national player of the year, he's a lock. If he's a first-team All-American AND leads Duke to a sixth national title, then I think he'll make it but it's debatable. The NPOY hurdle has become a key factor, even though several early honorees (Mullins) did meet that criteria. Anything less and I don't think he makes it.

[sagegrouse]

.

To get back on topic the question should be: Can Grayson Allen cut to the front of the line with a strong senior season?

If he finishes as national player of the year, he's a lock. If he's a first-team All-American AND leads Duke to a sixth national title, then I think he'll make it but it's debatable. The NPOY hurdle has become a key factor, even though several early honorees (Mullins) did meet that criteria. Anything less and I don't think he makes it.

I think Grayson is in somewhat better position for jersey retirement, Olympic Fan. I think he is in with a first-team All-American selection (consensus, natch). Second team A-A consensus -- then it gets a bit iffy. But remember, OF, Grayson not only already has a championship ring, but he was All-Final Four, and he has a Duke award in his honor (for best defensive play in the NCAA championship game).

I agree on Verga's being at the top of the list of those omitted (consensus 1st team A-A in 1967 and consensus 2nd team in 1966) -- and it's a mystery to me. As for Mullins, Jeff was added 30 years later and there was some emphasis on his later accomplishments: first Duke hoops player to win Olympic gold, ditto for NBA championship, plus three all-star teams. He was a successful coach at Charlotte, and he later became a Duke assistant AD.

[Olympic Fan]

I think Grayson is in somewhat better position for jersey retirement, Olympic Fan. I think he is in with a first-team All-American selection (consensus, natch). Second team A-A consensus -- then it gets a bit iffy. But remember, OF, Grayson not only already has a championship ring, but he was All-Final Four, and he has a Duke award in his honor (for best defensive play in the NCAA championship game).

I think you wa-a-a-y overrate Grayson's chances.

Nolan Smith was first-team All-American and he also won a national championship ring and he didn't get a sniff.

Put first-team All-American (something Grayson has never won) and a second national title on the table and, yes, I think there is a reasonable chance.

But first team All-America on a Sweet 16 team and he won't make it.

Second-team All-American and another national title and he won't make it.

[CDu]

I think you wa-a-a-y overrate Grayson's chances.

Nolan Smith was first-team All-American and he also won a national championship ring and he didn't get a sniff.

Put first-team All-American (something Grayson has never won) and a second national title on the table and, yes, I think there is a reasonable chance.

But first team All-America on a Sweet 16 team and he won't make it.

Second-team All-American and another national title and he won't make it.

The bolded is, in my opnion, absurd. If Allen lands a first-team All-American honor, he will almost certainly have ended up in the top-7 all-time scorers at Duke. He'll also have earned two All-America honors (one third-team and one first-team). And he'll have played on at least one national championship team and one ACC champion. That in and of itself should put him in the discussion.

If he does all of that AND the team wins the national title this year, and you think it is only "a reasonable chance"? Good grief! How would anyone ever get their jersey retired if a two-time All-American and two-time national title winner resume doesn't get it? He would seem to be a lock with that resume. And I would say with the second title and a 2nd- or 3rd-team All-America honor this year, he'd have a reasonable chance. Even though he was a reserve on the title team, I think it would be extremely odd to see a key contributor on a championship team, who also won multiple national All-American honors, not getting his jersey retired.

Where I think it gets iffy if the team doesn't do as well, or if he doesn't do as well individually.

I think your hypothetical comparison with Smith is bogus. Nolan Smith was a reserve for his first two years, whereas Allen was a reserve only as a freshman. Smith was a very-good-but-not-nationally-great player on the 2010 title team. Smith's senior year was comparable to Allen's sophomore year - arguably better, although not definitively so. Smith's junior year was definitely better than Allen's junior year, but Allen's junior year was definitely better than Smith's sophomore year. If we're assuming Allen gets another All-American honor (1st or 2nd team), that's going to give Allen two years about as good as Smith's best, and a third year that is much better than Smith's third-best year and worse than Smith's second-best year.

The comparison between Smith and Allen holds right now. Allen would not get in the rafters with his resume, just like Smith did not get in. Smith's resume as it stands is better than Allen's. But I think another All-American honor for Allen puts him comfortably ahead of Smith.

[uh_no]

(for best defensive play in the NCAA championship game).

IIRC, the award is for "best moment" which happened to be for his defensive play, and will only be awarded for championship teams.

[Olympic Fan]

The bolded is, in my opnion, absurd. If Allen lands a first-team All-American honor, he will almost certainly have ended up in the top-7 all-time scorers at Duke. He'll also have earned two All-America honors (one third-team and one first-team). And he'll have played on at least one national championship team and one ACC champion. That in and of itself should put him in the discussion.

If he does all of that AND the team wins the national title this year, and you think it is only "a reasonable chance"? Good grief! How would anyone ever get their jersey retired if a two-time All-American and two-time national title winner resume doesn't get it? He would seem to be a lock with that resume. And I would say with the second title and a 2nd- or 3rd-team All-America honor this year, he'd have a reasonable chance. Even though he was a reserve on the title team, I think it would be extremely odd to see a key contributor on a championship team, who also won multiple national All-American honors, not getting his jersey retired.

Where I think it gets iffy if the team doesn't do as well, or if he doesn't do as well individually.

I think your hypothetical comparison with Smith is bogus. Nolan Smith was a reserve for his first two years, whereas Allen was a reserve only as a freshman. Smith was a very-good-but-not-nationally-great player on the 2010 title team. Smith's senior year was comparable to Allen's sophomore year - arguably better, although not definitively so. Smith's junior year was definitely better than Allen's junior year, but Allen's junior year was definitely better than Smith's sophomore year. If we're assuming Allen gets another All-American honor (1st or 2nd team), that's going to give Allen two years about as good as Smith's best, and a third year that is much better than Smith's third-best year and worse than Smith's second-best year.

The comparison between Smith and Allen holds right now. Allen would not get in the rafters with his resume, just like Smith did not get in. Smith's resume as it stands is better than Allen's. But I think another All-American honor for Allen puts him comfortably ahead of Smith.

I say "good chance" and no lock because the criteria is that a player has to be a national player of the year, national defensive player of the year or a major record holder:

I know that criteria has not always been followed, but it's there.

As for his "finishing in the top seven in scoring" what does that have to do with it? Kyle Singler is fourth -- he's not up there. Gene Banks is eighth -- he's not up there. Jon Scheyer is 10th -- he's not up there.

I repeat, if Grayson is national player of the year, he'll be up there.

Win a second national title and by consensus first-team All-American, I think he will be up there (but not a lock)

Anything less -- just first-team All-America or second-team A-A on a national title team and he will fall short.

It IS hard to win retirement -- look at some of the guys who missed -- first-team All-Americans Nolan Smith, Chris Carrawell and Bob Verga (who was also a two-time All-American)

PS There are two other first-team A-A's that didn't make it -- Elton Brand (NPOY) and Jahlil Okafor. That brings up the one hard and fast criteria -- a player must graduate. I don't think that will be a problem for Grayson.

[CDu]

I say "good chance" and no lock because the criteria is that a player has to be a national player of the year, national defensive player of the year or a major record holder:

I know that criteria has not always been followed, but it's there.

Please feel free to point to where "there" is.

As for his "finishing in the top seven in scoring" what does that have to do with it? Kyle Singler is fourth -- he's not up there. Gene Banks is eighth -- he's not up there. Jon Scheyer is 10th -- he's not up there.

It's a part of the puzzle. Those other guys fell short on the other components: Singler never was an All-American; Banks never won a title and never won a consensus All-American honor; Scheyer had just the one great season.

I repeat, if Grayson is national player of the year, he'll be up there.

Obviously.

Win a second national title and by consensus first-team All-American, I think he will be up there (but not a lock)

Anything less -- just first-team All-America or second-team A-A on a national title team and he will fall short.

I disagree on both counts, as stated previously.

It IS hard to win retirement -- look at some of the guys who missed -- first-team All-Americans Nolan Smith, Chris Carrawell and Bob Verga (who was also a two-time All-American)

Verga was a two-time All-American... with no national titles. Smith as we have already discussed has just the one national honor and just two years as a starter. Carrawell was essentially Jon Scheyer-lite, minus the national championship. None of them compare to what Allen would have done in the hypothetical season. You are suggesting that a two-time All-American with two national titles isn't a lock. I think that's incorrect.

There are only three Duke players who were 2-time All-Americans AND won 2 national titles. All 3 have jerseys hanging from the rafters. It would be literally unprecedented for a player of those credentials (in the event of another All-American honor and national title) to not get his jersey retired at Duke. If Allen is a 2nd team or 1st team All-American and Duke wins its sixth title, I see no reasonable argument to keep him out. He's a lock in that scenario in my opinion.

Where it would start to get interesting is if he gets the 1st team All-American honor but doesn't win the title. There are, again, only 3 players who fit that category at Duke (the same 3), and all 3 have their jerseys retired. But then we'd be looking at a player who was only a reserve on the title team. In that case, I would think Allen would have a reasonable shot, but would certainly not bet on it. Getting a 2nd Team honor would put us further into the gray area and closer to Verga or status. He'd be ahead of Verga though - it would just be a question of how much ahead. What if we make the Final Four? The title game?

In that last scenario (no national title but a 1st team All-American), I think it just depends on how much Coach K wants to value Allen's role on the title team in the current climate. And remember that Allen is quite possibly going to be the last multi-year star player to graduate from Duke under Coach K's tutelage. In the era of early entry, being a 4-year guy with multiple nationally-prominent seasons means something. Again, it alone would not get him in, but it would be another piece of the puzzle. Whether or not it would be enough to get Allen over the hump without at least a 1st Team All-America honor, I don't know.

[sagegrouse]

I say "good chance" and no lock because the criteria is that a player has to be a national player of the year, national defensive player of the year or a major record holder:

I know that criteria has not always been followed, but it's there.

As for his "finishing in the top seven in scoring" what does that have to do with it? Kyle Singler is fourth -- he's not up there. Gene Banks is eighth -- he's not up there. Jon Scheyer is 10th -- he's not up there.

I repeat, if Grayson is national player of the year, he'll be up there.

Win a second national title and by consensus first-team All-American, I think he will be up there (but not a lock)

Anything less -- just first-team All-America or second-team A-A on a national title team and he will fall short.

It IS hard to win retirement -- look at some of the guys who missed -- first-team All-Americans Nolan Smith, Chris Carrawell and Bob Verga (who was also a two-time All-American)

PS There are two other first-team A-A's that didn't make it -- Elton Brand (NPOY) and Jahlil Okafor. That brings up the one hard and fast criteria -- a player must graduate. I don't think that will be a problem for Grayson.

We are looking at the records through different lenses, OF, which is okay. My rule-of-thumb is (a) NPOY or (b) two-time all-American - 2nd team or better (plus, of course, graduation from Duke). That explains almost everyone in the rafters: For sure, it covers Dick Groat, Heyman, Gminski, Dawkins, Ferry, Laettner, Hill, Battier, JWill and JJ. The others: Mullins (discussed upthread), Hurley (1st team A-A in 1993, some A-A teams the year before, plus two NC's), Shelden (1st team A-A in 2006, twice on some A-A teams, twice DPOY).

Carrawell and Nolan Smith only (only?) received A-A selection in one year, and neither was NPOY.

As most know who have followed this debate for years, Eddie Cameron wouldn't let Vic Bubas retire any jerseys. He said Dick Groat was the standard -- All-American in two sports!

[uh_no]

Please feel free to point to where "there" is.

Explicitly stated by K himself. Someone asked him in a pre-UNC crazie meeting about it. he said pretty much exactly what gets batted around. graduation and some sort of major national recognition (the two examples he used were some sort of NPOY or a national record)

We can argue about exceptions and what not all we want, and how previous selections have met the reqs, but those are his explicitly stated criteria.

[ipatent]

There is an argument for Kyle, Alarie and Gene Banks. Kyle's senior shooting slump didn't help, and while pro success isn't supposed to count, there may have been an impression that he wasn't quite the talent at the end of the day that some of the others were. Have standards tightened as the number of eligible jerseys dwindle?

Kyle was clutch when it counted during the '10 championship run, with the exception of the Baylor game.

In the end, K probably decides and weighs a lot of things. I think Banks's chances were hurt because he straddled two coaches and there was some friction between Foster's players and K at first.

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Do the tripping incidents adversely affect the possibility of Grayson's jersey/number being retired?

[jv001]

Do the tripping incidents adversely affect the possibility of Grayson's jersey/number being retired?

The stomp didn't keep Christian from getting his jersey retired. GoDuke!

[Atldukie79]

I believe you are incorrect about that. Verga was the only starter not penalized for the New Years time party. He started and scored 38 against Penn State. Also, he played in the KY game but was hobbled by the strep throat.

Yes, Verga played against KY, but it was a "lost" game in terms of performance.

Regarding the discipline issue, I was not referring to the Penn State game, but a different game. I am relying on my memory as a 9 year old who was excited to attend only one game at Duke Indoor Stadium to see my hero Bob Verga. Instead, I watched Tony Barone play. I think. But I know Verga did not play. He sat on the bench. It might have been '66 when Verga played 28 games out of 30. Not sure. Perhaps you can recall such a game.

Regardless of my imprecise language or recollections on specifics, my point regarding judging career stats without looking at per game performance to normalize different tenures across eras stands.

[brevity]

Do the tripping incidents adversely affect the possibility of Grayson's jersey/number being retired?

The stomp didn't keep Christian from getting his jersey retired. GoDuke!

Nope. The stomp occurred later.

February 26, 1992: jersey retired (source)

March 28, 1992: alleged murder attempt of Aminu Timberlake (2012 update on him here)

[IrishDevil]

Kyle was clutch when it counted during the '10 championship run, with the exception of the Baylor game.

Not germane to the retirement discussion, so my apologies, but because it is such a visceral memory for me - this was generally true, though Kyle's jumper from the elbow on the inbounds out of the timeout on our final offensive possession in the title game still makes me cringe.

[JasonEvans]

Do the tripping incidents adversely affect the possibility of Grayson's jersey/number being retired?

I think the tripping incidents, especially last year, tinge his junior season (and certainly seem to have effected him during January and perhaps beyond). The frustrating junior season is one of the things holding him back from jersey retirement, IMO. But, as others have said, if his senior year is a tad above the level of his soph campaign (first team All-American) and you add in a bit more team success, I could see jersey retirement in his future.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I think the tripping incidents, especially last year, tinge his junior season (and certainly seem to have effected him during January and perhaps beyond). The frustrating junior season is one of the things holding him back from jersey retirement, IMO. But, as others have said, if his senior year is a tad above the level of his soph campaign (first team All-American) and you add in a bit more team success, I could see jersey retirement in his future.

If Grayson overcomes last year's complications and it comes with temporary success, I could see his jersey in the rafters. People love a redemption story.

[Jackson]

Points aren't everything, but how can Kyle be #4,
have a ring, be tough as nails, and make buckets...but not be in the rafters?

As I looked down the list, I thought the same thing. One of all-time favorite Duke players. His lack of 1st team All American honors keep him off the list, I guess, but what a great player. My enduring memory is of his last game vs Arizona, diving for a loose ball, banging onto the floor, even after the outcome was already decided.

[grad_devil]

Grayson tallied 40 points in Duke's first two games, vaulting him past Chris Carrawell and Vince Taylor on the all-time scoring list. He now stands at #31. Next up is Carlos Boozer (1506, or Grayson + 42 pts). The full list is below.

As far as his career scoring numbers, here's a brief breakdown the points he'd need to average to achieve the following milestones:

As of 11/12/2017
Min Games Remaining	31
Grayson’s points	1464
Avg to 2k	17.29
Avg to top 10	19.77
Avg to JJ	42.10

JJ's total is unreachable, but the 2,000 point mark isn't far fetched, IMHO.

Duke Career Scoring Leaders

	Name	Pts
1	JJ Redick	2769
2	Johnny Dawkins	2556
3	Christian Laettner	2460
4	Kyle Singler	2392
5	Mike Gminski	2323
6	Danny Ferry	2155
7	Mark Alarie	2136
8	Gene Banks	2079
8	Jason Williams	2079
10	Jon Scheyer	2077
11	Jim Spanarkel	2012
12	Art Heyman	1984
12	Shane Battier	1984
14	Shelden Willaims	1928
15	Trajan Langdon	1974
16	Grant Hill	1924
17	Nolan Smith	1911
18	Dick Groat	1886
19	Jeff Mullins	1884
20	Bob Verga	1758
21	Bobby Hurley	1731
22	Randy Denton	1658
23	Ronnie Mayer	1647
24	Cherokee Parks	1643
25	Jeff Capel	1601
26	Daniel Ewing	1595
27	Thomas Hill	1594
28	Quinn Cook	1571
29	David Henderson	1570
30	Carlos Boozer	1506
31	Grayson Allen	1464
32	Vince Taylor	1455
32	Chris Carrawell	1455