2019 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[DavidBenAkiva]

Adam Zagoria caught up with teammates Bryan Antoine and Scottie Lewis of New Jersey after a busy week of hosting in-home visits with some of the biggest names in college basketball.

It turns out that each had separate in-home visits with the coaches and that Lewis was the only coach to host St. John's Head Coach Chris Mullin.

The two plan on participating in the U18 National Team this summer under head coach Bill Self before scheduling official visits this fall. Both appear on the track for committing during the November early signing period. I expect Duke will get one of their 5 visits each. It will be interesting to see if Duke is able to get either the first or last visit. With the hype of the incoming freshman class, a visit as late as October coinciding with an exhibition game or the Blue and White Game could be a tipping point to get one or both of these wings.

[Ian]

No, just that your proposed solution stinks, i.e. is unsupported by data and/or unrealistic.

Frankly, if I were going to adjust recruiting, it'd be to become more aggressive pursuing grad transfers, i.e. a different type of OAD.

And let's used the same methodology to test your proposal, of all the teams that have grad transfers, what percentage has won a title. I bet it's a lot worse than what Duke has done lately. Hence by that reasoning it would not improve Duke at all.

The difference is I'm not going to dismiss the idea of getting grad transfers based on this awful method of determining what works. I don't think it will work main because I think grad transfers, like OADs, are looking for immediate playing time and go to teams with openings in the starting lineup at their positions, and it is therefore difficult to recruit both types at the same time.

[Kedsy]

And let's used the same methodology to test your proposal, of all the teams that have grad transfers, what percentage has won a title. I bet it's a lot worse than what Duke has done lately. Hence by that reasoning it would not improve Duke at all.

The difference is I'm not going to dismiss the idea of getting grad transfers based on this awful method of determining what works. I don't think it will work main because I think grad transfers, like OADs, are looking for immediate playing time and go to teams with openings in the starting lineup at their positions, and it is therefore difficult to recruit both types at the same time.

I agree that going for grad transfers will only work if for whatever reason you have a glaring last-minute hole in your starting lineup that a particular grad transfer can fill. If you cover the starting lineup with recruits and returnees it will be very hard to lure a quality grad transfer.

I still disagree that eschewing top 10 prospects in favor of prospects ranked in the 40s is a viable strategy. Don't have to count titles to deduce that.

[CDu]

And let's used the same methodology to test your proposal, of all the teams that have grad transfers, what percentage has won a title. I bet it's a lot worse than what Duke has done lately. Hence by that reasoning it would not improve Duke at all.

The difference is I'm not going to dismiss the idea of getting grad transfers based on this awful method of determining what works. I don't think it will work main because I think grad transfers, like OADs, are looking for immediate playing time and go to teams with openings in the starting lineup at their positions, and it is therefore difficult to recruit both types at the same time.

The evidence points pretty heavily in favor of getting multiple one and dones though. Like, substantially so. It has been presented in numerous other threads. So I don’t think that you are going to find evidence of an approach that is better without serious cherry-picking.

And that is the key: given the finite amount of time the staff has to recruit, it is a hell of a lot more likely to be successful recruiting all the best players and sprinkling in an occasional “program guy” than it is to fpcus on a bunch of program guys and only one or two top guys per class. Because you simply can’t guarantee that those program guys will (a) develop and (b) wait their turn. So it is better to have the better talent. This isn’t hypothetical either. The evidence is pretty strongly in favor of getting multiple one and dones whenever possible. That isn’t to say that you have to have multiple one and dones to win. The last 3 champs illustrate that. Just that you are much more likely to be successful with multiple one and dones than not.

[MarkD83]

So the criteria for a successful season is 1) a national championship or 2) a Final 4. Let's use that as an assumption.

To be that successful another way to look at roster is that it must have 3-4 NBA quality players. That could be OAD players or upperclassmen who have improved enough to be NBA players.

Also to be successful Kenpom tells us a team must be in the top 10-15 in defensive and offensive efficiency. NBA quality players are usually judged on offensive skills so offensive efficiency may not be a big issue, but defensive efficiency might be.

So, how do you get a team that has a high defensive efficiency...teach a defense that can be taught and mastered in a short period of time.

[Kedsy]

So the criteria for a successful season is 1) a national championship or 2) a Final 4. Let's use that as an assumption.

To be that successful another way to look at roster is that it must have 3-4 NBA quality players. That could be OAD players or upperclassmen who have improved enough to be NBA players.

Also to be successful Kenpom tells us a team must be in the top 10-15 in defensive and offensive efficiency. NBA quality players are usually judged on offensive skills so offensive efficiency may not be a big issue, but defensive efficiency might be.

So, how do you get a team that has a high defensive efficiency...teach a defense that can be taught and mastered in a short period of time.

Please stop. Hardly anything you've said here is true.

Also to be successful Kenpom tells us a team must be in the top 10-15 in defensive and offensive efficiency.

Especially this.

[MarkD83]

Please stop. Hardly anything you've said here is true.



Especially this.

So Duke does not need OADs to be succesful

[Kedsy]

So Duke does not need OADs to be succesful

Did you say that in your post? Sorry I missed it.

A team does not need 3 to 4 NBA players to make the Final Four (although obviously it doesn't hurt). There is no evidence that being in the top 10 (or 15) in both offense and defense in KenPom gives you a better chance to win the championship or make the Final Four. With some players, almost any defense "can be taught and mastered in a short period of time." With other players almost no defense can. Frankly, I don't even buy your definition of a "successful season."

There is no formula that guarantees NCAA tournament success. Only thing we can say is if you have good-to-great players and those players play really well in the tournament, then you have a decent chance.

[MarkD83]

And in today's NCAAs good to great players go to the NBA as soon as they can thus my NBA talent comment.

As far as success goes I do not believe NCAA tournament success defines success but that seems to be why this board frets over not having players that stay in school

Finally the offense defense comment was more a poke at the fact that indeed the best teams score more and play better defense. Of course they do

[Rich]

Did you say that in your post? Sorry I missed it.

A team does not need 3 to 4 NBA players to make the Final Four (although obviously it doesn't hurt). There is no evidence that being in the top 10 (or 15) in both offense and defense in KenPom gives you a better chance to win the championship or make the Final Four. With some players, almost any defense "can be taught and mastered in a short period of time." With other players almost no defense can. Frankly, I don't even buy your definition of a "successful season."

There is no formula that guarantees NCAA tournament success. Only thing we can say is if you have good-to-great players and those players play really well in the tournament, then you have a decent chance.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the tourney is all about matchups. Good matchups, and some luck, lead to success. Maybe that's cliche (or a coping mechanism), but I'm sticking to it.

[cato]

There is no formula that guarantees NCAA tournament success.

Well, just one: score more points than the other team every game.

[JNort]

So Duke does not need OADs to be succesful

He never said that nor implied...

[ipatent]

Article on Nike EYBL Dallas.

[Troublemaker]

Article on Nike EYBL Dallas.

FloHoops‏Verified account @FloHoops 10h10 hours ago
Coach K is in the house.




I believe that's the back of CWell's head. And that might be Jon to Coach K's right.

AAU season is here.

[Troublemaker]

Clarence Hill Jr‏Verified account @clarencehilljr 19h19 hours ago
Remember when it was Romo and Garrett taking a buddy trip to see Duke and Coach K. Coach K was at the Star Friday visiting Garrett and Dak. That happened

[Saratoga2]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the tourney is all about matchups. Good matchups, and some luck, lead to success. Maybe that's cliche (or a coping mechanism), but I'm sticking to it.

I think a team needs good guard play leadership in the tourney. Hard to find teams in the final 4 who don't have at least one outstanding guard.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, the tourney is all about matchups. Good matchups, and some luck, lead to success. Maybe that's cliche (or a coping mechanism), but I'm sticking to it.

Match ups are huge....many superior teams are beaten by inferior teams because the particular match ups head to head work in favor of the lesser team.

Another key is surviving your one bad game, your one close call. Even Villanova, as good as they were, was ripe for the taking in the Elite 8. They happened to be matched up against a team, Texas Tech, who wasn't ready for prime time, for the big moment.

[Rich]

Match ups are huge...many superior teams are beaten by inferior teams because the particular match ups head to head work in favor of the lesser team.

Another key is surviving your one bad game, your one close call. Even Villanova, as good as they were, was ripe for the taking in the Elite 8. They happened to be matched up against a team, Texas Tech, who wasn't ready for prime time, for the big moment.

Sigh, we couldn't survive Grayson's miss at the end of regulation.

[Steven43]

The evidence is pretty strongly in favor of getting multiple one and dones whenever possible. That isn’t to say that you have to have multiple one and dones to win. The last 3 champs illustrate that. Just that you are much more likely to be successful with multiple one and dones than not.

You think the ‘evidence’ is pretty strongly in favor of getting multiple OADs whenever possible, huh? Is your sample size of programs that get multiple OADs statistically significant? I seriously doubt that it is.

[Steven43]

Clarence Hill Jr‏Verified account @clarencehilljr 19h19 hours ago
Remember when it was Romo and Garrett taking a buddy trip to see Duke and Coach K. Coach K was at the Star Friday visiting Garrett and Dak. That happened

How ‘bout them Cowboys!!
What is Star Friday, and how can I get a pair of those Dallas Cowboys warmup pants? Dak and the ‘Boys are going to have a great season now that Dez will no longer be there providing his lovely combination of attention-seeking tirades, poor route running, and dropped passes. I wanted him to get traded after the 2014 season (though he did make that great 4th down catch against Green Bay and it probably should have been ruled a touchdown).

Likewise, I wish Garrett had been fired years ago. He is the ultimate example of middle management. Still, the team has enough talent to succeed in spite of Garrett’s timid, vanilla coaching. I’m thinking Dallas v Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl for the fourth time.