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  1. #1

    Your Valuation of Postseason vs Regular Season

    I have a couple of offseason threads that I wanted to start and this is one of them.

    How do you personally value the postseason versus wins in the regular season?

    For me, I would obviously give up anything before the tournament for an NCAA title. If we literally lost every game in the regular season, then ran through the ACC Tournament before winning it all, I would take that. On the other end, nothing would make up for missing the NCAA tournament completely, not even winning the NIT.

    The first is a rather extreme scenario and thankfully the second has not really been a fear recently, but how about in between? I must say that I am not one of those people who values losing later in the tournament that much more than losing early. I would probably trade a win against an ACC team that I do not care about for an additional win in the tournament, but not more than a few. Assuming they would not win either tournament or the ACC regular season, I would rather sweep UNC and lose in the NCAA first round than lose to them twice and lose in the national final for instance.

    To try to place a figure on it, I would trade a win in the first round through the national semifinal for about two ACC regular season wins and one ACC tournament win (not including the final or a rivalry loss). I might take two tournament wins in exchange for a minor rivalry loss. I might settle for a regular season split with UNC for four tournament wins or so, but I would not take being swept by them in exchange for winning the ACC tournament and losing in the NCAA Final.

    How about you? Do you highly value advancing additional rounds of the NCAA Tournament in comparison to regular season or ACC Tournament accomplishments? Do you feel much better about losing in the final versus the semifinal versus the Elite Eight versus the Sweet Sixteen?

  2. #2
    Final Four and avoiding a historic upset are the postseason "steps" that matter aside from a title or missing the tournament. So I think it just matters whether these trading of wins cause or prevent any of the following from happening: national title, Final Four, loss in the first round as a 1 seed, ACC regular season title, ACC tournament title, win against UNC, making the tournament, undefeated conference season.

    In other words, I wouldn't trade a regular season win against UNC to move from a second round loss to an Elite 8 loss. But I would easily drop from finishing 2nd in the ACC to 9th in the ACC if it somehow meant making the Final Four instead of the Sweet 16 (I'd probably drop from 1st to 9th in the same trade, but it's not as obvious a decision).

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by awhom111 View Post
    The first is a rather extreme scenario and thankfully the second has not really been a fear recently, but how about in between? I must say that I am not one of those people who values losing later in the tournament that much more than losing early. I would probably trade a win against an ACC team that I do not care about for an additional win in the tournament, but not more than a few. Assuming they would not win either tournament or the ACC regular season, I would rather sweep UNC and lose in the NCAA first round than lose to them twice and lose in the national final for instance.

    To try to place a figure on it, I would trade a win in the first round through the national semifinal for about two ACC regular season wins and one ACC tournament win (not including the final or a rivalry loss). I might take two tournament wins in exchange for a minor rivalry loss. I might settle for a regular season split with UNC for four tournament wins or so, but I would not take being swept by them in exchange for winning the ACC tournament and losing in the NCAA Final.
    As you say, the extreme scenarios aren't very likely.

    In general, everything is a hunt for a natty for me. Of course I cherish every win in the regular season, but I take any loss in the tournament like the death of a relative.

    To put a figure on it, since '97 we basically lose b/w 5-10 games year (most being 11 in '07 and '16, least being 2 in '99). I'd take a 9-10-11 loss year if it meant a natty, every year.

    Short of that, I'm not going to put figure on weighting a sweet 16 vs elite 8 vs 2nd round vs FF vs 1-2-3 regular season wins. In the end, we didn't win it all so its all moot.

  4. #4
    Here's a thought for folks along these lines... How much value do you place in the NCAA semifinal game? Other than the obvious (you need a win to have a shot at the championship) does anyone view losses in the semi-final as substantially different than losses in the final?

    Personally, I feel like there is a tier of greatness (making the final four) and an obvious tier above (champions!!!) but not much in between.

    Sure, you can look at particular seasons and say "how different would our 1991 season be if Dean-o hadn't choked against Kansas," or "what if Kentucky had beaten Wisconsin in 2015?" but do we feel differently about our own teams that made the final four but didn't make the final game!

    Food for thought. I wouldn't trade any level of ACC success for either result, but was wondering how everyone else felt.

  5. #5
    It's almost overwhelming weighed to NCAA tournament success to say how a season went for most of the blue blood fanbases, which is why the tournament is so harsh because it's one and done and seemingly somewhat random/luck/unpredictable/unfair at times. I think most people would trade winning the ACC tournament (and beating the Cheats 2 out of 3) for a F4 appearance this year... likewise, obviously, nobody thinks this season where we were ACC champs was more successful than 2015 when we didn't win the ACC regular season or tournament. But I certainly appreciate regular season/conference tournament success eses as those are seem less random/subject to chance.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    ACC regular season meant much more when you had home and away's with everyone, and the league was small enough that you really had a feel for each team. Now, it's just preseason to get your NCAA seed.

    I don't see that as a positive development, but that's where I am.

    ACC tourney still matters a lot to me.

    NCAA makes or breaks a year. I cannot put an arbitrary "I'm happy if we achieve X" because each team is different. I will say, though, that any Final Four is an achievement.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  7. #7
    Good morning, campers. Today is evaluation day. The key word is value. Do you have any? Not yet.

    Okay, let's go get our hands dirty.
    Whatever the hell "it" is, Jabari found it.

    -Roy "Ole Huck" Williams

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA

    Post-season all the way

    Reg season is fun. You get to watch the team develop.

    UNC games are amazing. Because it's the best college rivalry in sports.

    ACC tournament is pretty good, but I actually prefer the reg season.

    NCAA tournament? That's where legends are made and memories are created.

    I value the reg season at 25%, ACC tourney at 5%, and NCAA tourney at 70%.
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    Good morning, campers. Today is evaluation day. The key word is value. Do you have any? Not yet.

    Okay, let's go get our hands dirty.
    I use the swag and DVD scale

    My wife lets me buy unlimited swag for an NCAA championship. I also keep the DVD forever

    For a final four maybe 1 or 2 t-shirts and I keep the elite 8 DVD

    For an acc tournament win I get to buy about the same amount as for a final four. I also keep the dvds

    A regular season championship gets me no swag and I don't keep regular season dvds. Except...

    I also get no swag for wins against unc but keep the DVD of the wins

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Richmond, VA
    Let me expand on the DVD scale.

    Time is a good metric for value. So with the DVDs I have collected or if some station is replaying Duke wins I would spend time rewatching...

    1. Any National Championship
    2. Any win against UNC in the ACC tournament
    3. Any ACC championship
    4. Any regular season win against UNC
    5. Duke- UNLV in the 1991 Final Four - So this final four game does have value
    6. 1990 Duke- UConn - Elite 8
    7. Duke- Md Gone in 60 seconds game

    As an aside the consensus on this board is that the two least liked opponents are 1) UNC and 2) Ky. I still have a cold spot in my heart for UConn. The 1999 and 2004 NCAA Championship Banners are in Storrs, CT and should be in Durham, NC.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    Let me expand on the DVD scale.

    Time is a good metric for value. So with the DVDs I have collected or if some station is replaying Duke wins I would spend time rewatching...

    1. Any National Championship
    2. Any win against UNC in the ACC tournament
    3. Any ACC championship
    4. Any regular season win against UNC
    5. Duke- UNLV in the 1991 Final Four - So this final four game does have value
    6. 1990 Duke- UConn - Elite 8
    7. Duke- Md Gone in 60 seconds game

    As an aside the consensus on this board is that the two least liked opponents are 1) UNC and 2) Ky. I still have a cold spot in my heart for UConn. The 1999 and 2004 NCAA Championship Banners are in Storrs, CT and should be in Durham, NC.
    That's a damn good list.

  12. #12
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    Let me expand on the DVD scale.

    Time is a good metric for value. So with the DVDs I have collected or if some station is replaying Duke wins I would spend time rewatching...

    1. Any National Championship
    2. Any win against UNC in the ACC tournament
    3. Any ACC championship
    4. Any regular season win against UNC
    5. Duke- UNLV in the 1991 Final Four - So this final four game does have value
    6. 1990 Duke- UConn - Elite 8
    7. Duke- Md Gone in 60 seconds game

    As an aside the consensus on this board is that the two least liked opponents are 1) UNC and 2) Ky. I still have a cold spot in my heart for UConn. The 1999 and 2004 NCAA Championship Banners are in Storrs, CT and should be in Durham, NC.
    Add Duke-Ky in the Elite Eight, 1992, and you've got a pretty dandy box set for sale right there.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  13. #13
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Inman, SC & Fort Myers, FL
    If you are looking retrospectively, then I certainly agree with the lists which have been discussed -- those are the games which I would watch again and again. However, if you are looking prospectively, then I rate every game the same before it is played. I want to win the preseason exhibition games as much as the final game we play every season. Further, I want to win every game by at least 30 points. Now, I agree that is much more likely in the preseason than in the NCAA tournament.
    This message was composed entirely from recycled letters of the alphabet using only renewable, caffeinated energy sources.
    No trees, wabbits, chimps or whales died in the process.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by MarkD83 View Post
    Let me expand on the DVD scale.

    Time is a good metric for value. So with the DVDs I have collected or if some station is replaying Duke wins I would spend time rewatching...

    1. Any National Championship
    2. Any win against UNC in the ACC tournament
    3. Any ACC championship
    4. Any regular season win against UNC
    Good list. I'd put a Final Four second, and the ACC Championship over any UNC win.

    Postseason wins are the de facto main goal for a program of Duke's stature. The ACC regular season title used to mean more when there was a balanced schedule, and oh, for the days of a Tournament with number of teams that was an exponential of #2:


  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Better Seasons than Final Four Seasons?

    I racked up all the seasons since 1984 and counted NCAA wins, ACC record, and ACC champions.

    It was a bit of work but insightful.

    The question is, do any of the non-Final Four seasons measure up to any of the 12 Final Four seasons? Here are the best tests of that.

    The 1989 Final Four team (big win over Georgetown in the regional finals) was 9-5 in the ACC (0.643) and lost to UNC in the ACC finals.

    There are two obvious challengers. The 2000 team was 15-1 in the ACC and won the championship. The team won its first two matches but lost in the regional semis to Florida -- this team had a short bench and Mike Dunleavy was suffering from mono.

    Then there is the 14-2 2006 team that won the ACC championship. JJ's final team lost to LSU in the regional semis.

    A third might be the 1998 team, 15-1 in the ACC, that almost made the Final Four, giving up a big lead over Kentucky in the regional finals. This team lost to UNC (Jamison and Carter) in the ACC finals.

    I would rate the 2000 and 2006 team as better (more rewarding to this fan) than the 1989 team -- but look at the trade-off: ACC champions and a much, much higher conference winning percentage.

    With respect to the other years -- most teams with good NCAA results had good conference records, so winning goes along with winning.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I racked up all the seasons since 1984 and counted NCAA wins, ACC record, and ACC champions.

    It was a bit of work but insightful.

    The question is, do any of the non-Final Four seasons measure up to any of the 12 Final Four seasons? Here are the best tests of that.

    The 1989 Final Four team (big win over Georgetown in the regional finals) was 9-5 in the ACC (0.643) and lost to UNC in the ACC finals.

    There are two obvious challengers. The 2000 team was 15-1 in the ACC and won the championship. The team won its first two matches but lost in the regional semis to Florida -- this team had a short bench and Mike Dunleavy was suffering from mono.

    Then there is the 14-2 2006 team that won the ACC championship. JJ's final team lost to LSU in the regional semis.

    A third might be the 1998 team, 15-1 in the ACC, that almost made the Final Four, giving up a big lead over Kentucky in the regional finals. This team lost to UNC (Jamison and Carter) in the ACC finals.

    I would rate the 2000 and 2006 team as better (more rewarding to this fan) than the 1989 team -- but look at the trade-off: ACC champions and a much, much higher conference winning percentage.

    With respect to the other years -- most teams with good NCAA results had good conference records, so winning goes along with winning.
    I am STUNNED by this correlation!

    (No disrespect meant - just irony!)

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    I am STUNNED by this correlation!

    (No disrespect meant - just irony!)
    I know you're joking, but it's become weirdly fashionable on DBR lately to pretend that the NCAA tournament is a random number generator with no correlation to regular season success.

  18. #18
    The favorite usually doesn't win the NCAA Tournament, but it is rare that a team outside the next ten or so does.

  19. #19
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    I racked up all the seasons since 1984 and counted NCAA wins, ACC record, and ACC champions.

    It was a bit of work but insightful.

    The question is, do any of the non-Final Four seasons measure up to any of the 12 Final Four seasons? Here are the best tests of that.

    The 1989 Final Four team (big win over Georgetown in the regional finals) was 9-5 in the ACC (0.643) and lost to UNC in the ACC finals.

    There are two obvious challengers. The 2000 team was 15-1 in the ACC and won the championship. The team won its first two matches but lost in the regional semis to Florida -- this team had a short bench and Mike Dunleavy was suffering from mono.

    Then there is the 14-2 2006 team that won the ACC championship. JJ's final team lost to LSU in the regional semis.

    A third might be the 1998 team, 15-1 in the ACC, that almost made the Final Four, giving up a big lead over Kentucky in the regional finals. This team lost to UNC (Jamison and Carter) in the ACC finals.

    I would rate the 2000 and 2006 team as better (more rewarding to this fan) than the 1989 team -- but look at the trade-off: ACC champions and a much, much higher conference winning percentage.

    With respect to the other years -- most teams with good NCAA results had good conference records, so winning goes along with winning.
    I spent time preparing the data then posted in haste because I had only a few minutes this AM.

    I thought I'd look at every recent season and judge based on my own feelings, which seasons were equivalent -- especially when one involved a Final Four and the other didn't. The OP asked what sort of trade-offs from the regular and ACC season would we make to get a Final Four? If 2000 and 2006 are roughly equivalent to 1989, then the answer is five or six wins, including an ACC championship. The 2000 team was 15-1 and the 2006 team was 14-2 -- both won ACC's. The 1989 team was 9-5 and lost in the ACC finals to UNC in a close game. That's roughly five ACC wins and one more tournament win in exchange for a Final Four. Seems high.

    Maybe 1988 is a better example: a FF team with an ACC championship but also 9-5 in the regualr season. If that's about the same as the other two mentioned, then it's five ACC games for a regional championship (two games). Naw. 1988 is a better season than 2000 and 2006 b3ecause of the ACC championship.

    So, winning two regional NCAA games (ergo, a Final Four) is worth five regular season ACC games (18-game schedule) plus an extra win in the ACC tournament.

    As to my inane remark that Final Four teams seem to do well in the regular season -- I was just pointing out the deficiencies in the data if you are ranking Duke teams along a frontier trading off NCAA wins vs. ACC wins. My apologies for not stating it better, and even further apologies for this pseudo-academic paragraph.

    Kindly,
    Sage
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    One addition about the 1988 team, they rank higher than other teams because they beat unc three times including the acc finals

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