2017 NBA Summer Thread

[BigZ]

Everyone keeps going after the Cavs for not adding another star. They have no trade chips since teams don't want Love.

[CDu]

$25 million for IT and $10 million for Smart. That's about market, right?

I just dont see that being a good route for various reasons. I would want a team option for year 3 or 4 of any IT deal given his age. You dont want to be paying him 1/4 of your cap when he starts looking like Nate Robinson out there.

I guess I agree with you guys - the time to deal IT was last month.

That $10 million might actually be low for Smart. Tim Hardaway Jr just got $71 million over 4 years.

Everyone keeps going after the Cavs for not adding another star. They have no trade chips since teams don't want Love.

Who is going after the Cavs for not adding another star? Everyone knows the Cavs have no cap space or trade chips.

[JasonEvans]

Umm, did you not read my prior two posts? Your first two paragraphs are almost verbatim from one of those posts. Or are you just trying to boost your post counts?

I was just trying to articulate it in hard numbers to show folks the math here

[JasonEvans]

$25 million for IT and $10 million for Smart. That's about market, right?

I just dont see that being a good route for various reasons. I would want a team option for year 3 or 4 of any IT deal given his age. You dont want to be paying him 1/4 of your cap when he starts looking like Nate Robinson out there.

It depends upon how this season goes, but I would offer Smart $80-$90 mil for 4 years with the 4th year being a team option. Sure, he expects more (he has talked about, "backing up a Brinks truck" and I am sure he expects a max deal), but I am not so sure there is going to be that robust a market for him. I suspect he is not going to find many teams willing to give him a $100 mil contract. It is not like he suddenly burst onto the scene. He scored 20ppg for Sacto back before he became a free agent in 2014. Coming off a 20ppg season in which he also averaged 6+ apg and clearly entering his prime (he was just 23 at the time), he only got a 4 year, $28 mil contract from Phoenix (he was dealt that season to the Celtics for Marcus Thornton and a draft pick which eventually became Skal Labissiere). Yes, he has shown himself to be an even better player now and there is more money around the NBA, but I really doubt anyone is going to offer him 4 years guaranteed at $100+ million. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't see it for a guy who is a major league liability on D.

It will be really interesting to see if the Celtics and IT get an extension deal done this coming season before he hits free agency. There is a real risk for IT in waiting until the end of the season as the Celtics seem to have more scorers on the roster this coming season and it could cut into IT's stats in a way that seriously undermines his contract potential. If he drops back to, for example, 22 points per game, getting $20 mil per season could suddenly look really attractive to him.

And here is the real risk for Thomas -- what if it begins to become clear that the team's best line up is Smart, Heyward, 2 of Crowder/Tatum/Brown, and Horford? Do the Celtics start to question if they need/want IT when all he does is move them into luxury tax territory.

That $10 million might actually be low for Smart. Tim Hardaway Jr just got $71 million over 4 years.

Well, Hardaway is clearly more of a scorer (19.1 p/36 vs. 12.5 p/36) and a much better shooter (.537 EFG vs. .422 EFG). Smart is a significantly better defender, but Hardaway showed real improvement as a defender this year. Plus, we have to include the stupidity factor of the Knicks offering Hardaway a contract that everyone in the NBA thinks is insane. Then again, you never know when some other team will do something insane and offer Smart $15+ mil a season.

I think $10 mil is about right for Marcus Smart... though it is worth noting that by the time they are ready to pay Smart, the Celtics may be looking at luxury tax implications that scare them as they look at the future. If they are sure they want to keep much of the rest of their core and they are looking at big raises for Brown and Tatum in the 2nd and 3rd years of Smart's deal, they may decide that letting Smart go is the more prudent path to take. I'm starting to think they will keep one of IT or Smart, but not both.

-Jason "god, I would kill for my team to have the kind of options the Celtics do!!!" Evans

[CDu]

I was just trying to articulate it in hard numbers to show folks the math here

So was I (in my post which included the same numbers)...

As for Smart, he is young and was a key contributor on a playoff team. I think someone will offer him $50+ million over 4 years. I don't think he is worth that, but he will get it. Boston would be best served letting him walk and drafting his replacement.

[DukeTrinity11]

The Cavs just added Turkish star Cedi Osman to bolster their bench.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/1...yer-cedi-osman

The Warriors are now shaking in their boots.

[JasonEvans]

It depends upon how this season goes, but I would offer Smart $80-$90 mil for 4 years with the 4th year being a team option.

Yikes! I meant they should offer that to IT!

[DukeTrinity11]

Yikes! I meant they should offer that to IT!

If he can maintain his current level of play, then I think Isaiah is a good enough PG to lead a potential championship team and it will come down to who all the other pieces on the roster are.

[JNort]

Yikes! I meant they should offer that to IT!

Whew. Ok good. I thought I was a big fan of Smart until I saw your numbers and started thinking i was off base on his worth.

[JNort]

? What are they saying if they give him up? He's a young player who is only getting better.

I'm saying paying a guy like hes one of the top guys in the nba who isn't even close to being worth it right now and imo not the future either is setting yourself up for failure.

[superdave]

Everyone keeps going after the Cavs for not adding another star. They have no trade chips since teams don't want Love.

What were the potential trades for Love? I was seeing Nuggets and Suns as potential landing spots, but some 3-team trades too.

Bill Simmons also said on a podcast that the Cavs quietly shopped Kyrie. Sounds like the Cavs see this as Lebron's last stand in Cleveland.

[JasonEvans]

Bill Simmons also said on a podcast that the Cavs quietly shopped Kyrie.

I saw this news too. Not sure I believe it. I would think they would have gotten a ton of interest in Kyrie, who seems to be one of the elite scorers in the game and a guy who has come up HUGE in clutch situations. Maybe the Cavs only shopped him for ludicrous deals like Kwahi Leonard or Anthony Davis.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I saw this news too. Not sure I believe it. I would think they would have gotten a ton of interest in Kyrie, who seems to be one of the elite scorers in the game and a guy who has come up HUGE in clutch situations. Maybe the Cavs only shopped him for ludicrous deals like Kwahi Leonard or Anthony Davis.

I believe it. If you can get a two-way All-Star for Kyrie, you pull the trigger. If you can get a sack of beans for Kevin Love, you pull the trigger.

The issue with the Cavs is how one-dimensional their players not-named-Lebron are. Given, that one-dimension is very, very good (Kyrie at scoring, Thompson at rebounding, Love at 3pt shooting for a big man, Shumpert for defense, Smith for wild card, etc). But compare that with the Dubs who have multiple two-way players (KD, Draymond, Klay...hell, even Curry looked decent on D during the finals!).

[superdave]

I believe it. If you can get a two-way All-Star for Kyrie, you pull the trigger. If you can get a sack of beans for Kevin Love, you pull the trigger.

The issue with the Cavs is how one-dimensional their players not-named-Lebron are. Given, that one-dimension is very, very good (Kyrie at scoring, Thompson at rebounding, Love at 3pt shooting for a big man, Shumpert for defense, Smith for wild card, etc). But compare that with the Dubs who have multiple two-way players (KD, Draymond, Klay...hell, even Curry looked decent on D during the finals!).

Good point on the GSW roster. I saw this AM that Indy allegedly offered Paul George for Klay. GSW didnt bite; why mess with a great thing?

What does everyone think the odds are that Lebron move on next summer? 50/50 or leaning towards an exit?

[flyingdutchdevil]

Good point on the GSW roster. I saw this AM that Indy allegedly offered Paul George for Klay. GSW didnt bite; why mess with a great thing?

What does everyone think the odds are that Lebron move on next summer? 50/50 or leaning towards an exit?

Leaning towards exit. I'd put it at 80/20. With the current line-up, the Cavs just don't have enough firepower to overthrow the Dubs juggernaut. I know everyone points to Game 3 and argues if the Cavs won that, the series would be more competitive. But did you see Game 5? The Cavs gave it everything, and all that led to was KD doing whatever he wanted and Iguadala scoring 20 points.

These Dubs are insanely talented. With the Cavs, they can only play solid defense against 3 of the 5 players on the court. With Irving and Love, you are screwed defensively. Love is a lost cause, and Irving took a clear step back defensively compared to the 2016 Finals.

So if I'm Lebron, I'm bouncing. What about joining the Lakers with George, Ingram, and Ball (Ball at the 1, Ingram at the 2, George at the 3, Lebron at the 4)? Or the Celtics? Or the Rockets? If the goal is more championships, Lebron is gone. And he should be. He's not winning another one in Cleveland.

[LasVegas]

I don't think Lebron is going anywhere. I think he signs the max deal with the cavs for 209 million and ends his career as a cav. I just don't see the fire in him anymore to hunt for trophies. He loves Ohio. It's his home. Unless something catastrophic happens this year, he will be a cav.

As a cavs fan, I'm all for Lebron getting as many rings as possible. He brought one home and it was special for this city. So if he leaves, I'm sure he will have almost full support this time.

[JasonEvans]

I don't think Lebron is going anywhere. I think he signs the max deal with the cavs for 209 million and ends his career as a cav. I just don't see the fire in him anymore to hunt for trophies. He loves Ohio. It's his home. Unless something catastrophic happens this year, he will be a cav.

As a cavs fan, I'm all for Lebron getting as many rings as possible. He brought one home and it was special for this city. So if he leaves, I'm sure he will have almost full support this time.

I think the odds are at least 50-50 that Lebron stays in Cleveland, but I will give you one more prediction -- Lebron will stay in the East. I don't see him moving out West where he would have to exert maximum effort to get through Houston or San Antonio in the conference semis just to get a shot at the Warriors in the Conference Finals and then a well-rested Boston in the championship.

The key thing to look at is who will have cap room in the East next summer. You know who? Philly. Here are the committed contracts they have next summer:

Jerryd Bayless - $8.5 mil
Markelle Fultz - $8.3 mil
Furkan Korkmaz - $1.4 million

That's it. They have only 3 guys who they must pay in 2018-19. Now, they also have club options on a bunch of young players who they could opt to pay or they could set free. Some of there are no brainers:

Ben Simmons - $6.4 mil (100% to exercise the option)
Jahlil Okafor - $6.3 mil (unless this year is a disaster I think they would exercise it... though there continues to be talk they will trade Okafor)
Dario Saric - $2.5 mil (they are exercising, for sure)
Justin Anderson - $2.4 mil (again, they are likely to exercise the option, but it is not a sure thing I think)
Richaun Holmes - $1.6 mil (had a nice season last year, but one wonders how much playing time he gets going forward if Embid is healthy)
T.J. McConnell - $1.6 mil (did a decent job running the point, but Fultz and Simmons probably take that over this year)
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot - $1.4 mil (he's not terrible, but I could see them cutting him loose for some cap space)

Then there are the restricted free agents. Philly must do a cap hold if it wants to retain rights to them. But, if they sign some other free agent first, they could go over the cap to sign these guys.

Joel Embiid - cap hold around $7.5 mil
Nik Stauskas - cap hold around $4.5 mil

Philly will also have Bird rights on unrestricted free agent Robert Covington, so they could go over the cap to re-sign him (provided they did not renounce his rights and absorb the $2 mil cap hold on him). I'm less sure about their rights to their other UFAs, JJ Redick and Amir Johnson, though the cap holds on both of those guys would be sizeable and I suspect Philly will not hold onto either of them.

Ok that's a lot of numbers, but I wanted to demonstrate that Philly can clear a ton of cap space -- enough to fairly easily afford 2 max free agents and yet still have a core of Embiid, Simmons, Fultz, Bayless, Okafor, Saric, Anderson, and Stauskas. Add a couple top tier players to that roster and you've got quite the team with a great mix of youth and experience.

-Jason "If Lebron wants to stay in the East and thinks Cleveland doesn't have what it takes, Philly could be a really good option" Evans

[nmduke2001]

What were the potential trades for Love? I was seeing Nuggets and Suns as potential landing spots, but some 3-team trades too.

Bill Simmons also said on a podcast that the Cavs quietly shopped Kyrie. Sounds like the Cavs see this as Lebron's last stand in Cleveland.

If I were the Cavs, I'd consider trading LeBron. Yup, I said it. LeBron is probably leaving when the contract is up. If you could get Porzingis or someone of that ilk, along with loads of draft picks and some vets to make the numbers work, you would set up the Cavs for the future. They likely aren't beating the Warriors with the current team anyway. Might as well plan for the next couple of years.

[Troublemaker]

If I were the Cavs, I'd consider trading LeBron. Yup, I said it. LeBron is probably leaving when the contract is up. If you could get Porzingis or someone of that ilk, along with loads of draft picks and some vets to make the numbers work, you would set up the Cavs for the future. They likely aren't beating the Warriors with the current team anyway. Might as well plan for the next couple of years.

Lebron's got a no-trade clause

What they could do / will do is this: after Lebron leaves next summer, they'll only have Kyrie and Love for one more year on their respective contracts. The Cavs will ask Kyrie and Love to commit long-term, they will refuse, and Cleveland will trade them for assets to start the rebuild.

The Cavs are a dead franchise walking and will be a lottery team in 18-19.

Still, Lebron's return to Cleveland netted the city their first championship in over 50 years. Keeping things in perspective, Cleveland fans should be satisfied.

[nmduke2001]

Lebron's got a no-trade clause

What they could do / will do is this: after Lebron leaves next summer, they'll only have Kyrie and Love for one more year on their respective contracts. The Cavs will ask Kyrie and Love to commit long-term, they will refuse, and Cleveland will trade them for assets to start the rebuild.

The Cavs are a dead franchise walking and will be a lottery team in 18-19.

Still, Lebron's return to Cleveland netted the city their first championship in over 50 years. Keeping things in perspective, Cleveland fans should be satisfied.

Maybe they could convince LeBron to waive the clause to play with Melo or another one of his friends. As you stated, the Cavs are a dead franchise and need to do something radical.