2017 French Open and 2017 Wimbledon Championships

[cato]

Rafa's the favorite and deserves to be, but Stan has that amazing power that gives him a chance. If Stan gets hot, he's probably the only player who can hit through Rafa when Rafa is in top form on clay like this. A hot Stan was the only thing that stopped Novak from achieving a Calendar Grand Slam two years ago, and if Stan gets into a zone again Sunday, it could be interesting. Stan's a big match player, he gets stronger as a tournament proceeds, and he gets stronger as a match proceeds so he can even win a 5-setter.

I'll predict Rafa in 4, but a Stan victory here wouldn't be shocking.

Stan may be The Man, but we are talking Rafa at Roland Garros. This does not depend on Wawrinka's form.

No man living or dead can beat Rafa with the French Open on the line.* Rafa will win this in 3 or 4 sets.

*Almost true.

[Troublemaker]

Stan may be The Man, but we are talking Rafa at Roland Garros. This does not depend on Wawrinka's form.

No man living or dead can beat Rafa with the French Open on the line.* Rafa will win this in 3 or 4 sets.

*Almost true.

To be clear, I think the odds of Rafa winning in 3 easy sets are greater than the odds of Stan winning.

I'm just saying that we've seen Stan playing in a zone before like in the 2015 French Open Final. When Stan gets hot, it is beautiful to watch and scare for the opponent, who gets overpowered. So I think it DOES depend somewhat on Stan's form. If he gets hot, he can make it a match against Rafa and even win. But yeah, I would expect Rafa to take it tomorrow under most circumstances.

[snowdenscold]

Too lazy to look it up, but surely no one has ever won his first 4 Grand Slam finals, right?

Federer won his first 7 before falling to Rafa at '06 French.


Also, I heard the Latvian national anthem for the first time today. Wasn't expecting that...

[CDu]

Rafa on way to a straight-set title.

[Blue in the Face]

Too easy.

[duke4ever19]

Vintage Nadal today.

Last year when he withdrew with a wrist injury, I honestly thought the guy's career was over . . . at least the winning slams part of it.

Provided he treats his body with care and avoids wearing down (taking a cue from Federer's current schedule) His dominance on clay has me thinking that he could still catch Federer's 18 titles by winning the French Open alone over the next few years, such is his dominance on that surface.

Obviously, this will depend on what Federer does as he maneuvers the schedule to keep fresh legs. I also won't count out Djoker. He's struggling as of late, but I think his problems are mental, not physical. He's shown the ability to dominate and with 12 titles, he's fully capable of stringing together three more to catch Nadal.

[Troublemaker]

Unbelievable form from Rafa after the first few games (which were error-filled by both guys), and he spent the match pushing Stan around and giving him no chance. I had thought maybe Rafa wouldn't be at his top-level today because it HAD been 3 years since he last won a Slam and maybe he would play tight, but instead he was fantastic. 10 French Open titles. Amazing.

Now it's onto the grass season! Hopefully Fed can quickly shake off the rust from skipping the clay season.

Provided he treats his body with care and avoids wearing down (taking a cue from Federer's current schedule)

Schedule management is so key since the Big 5 (I'm including Stan!) are all in their 30s now.

Fed and Rafa both took the end of the 2016 season off to get their bodies right and to get some time to practice correctly. That's a big part of why they've been dominating 2017, imo. On the other hand, Djoker and Murray both killed themselves at the end of 2016 to try to finish Year End #1, which Murray finally achieved in the last match of the season, defeating Novak at the World Tour Finals. IMO, that's partly why they've been slumping in 2017.

[howardlander]

I also won't count out Djoker. He's struggling as of late, but I think his problems are mental, not physical. He's shown the ability to dominate and with 12 titles, he's fully capable of stringing together three more to catch Nadal.

I don't know if Djoker's problems are only mental. He looked really thin to me, maybe not unhealthy, but he just looks like he's lost a lot of muscle mass. I think Nadal would have beaten him at least as badly as he beat Wawrinka. Was I the only one that thought he looked too thin to have the strength to compete over 5 sets?

Howard

[Troublemaker]

I don't know if Djoker's problems are only mental. He looked really thin to me, maybe not unhealthy, but he just looks like he's lost a lot of muscle mass. I think Nadal would have beaten him at least as badly as he beat Wawrinka. Was I the only one that thought he looked too thin to have the strength to compete over 5 sets?

Howard

That's definitely one of the common theories about his slump. If it's a problem, his team will correct it since all the top players have nutritionists, physios, etc on their teams. Long-term, I wouldn't be worried about Novak.

[Troublemaker]

Federer in action today for the first time in 2.5 months because he skipped the clay season. He's going to play two grass tuneup events (Stuttgart, Halle) before Wimbledon.

It's important for him to do well for two reasons:
(1) Obviously he wants to knock off the rust. If he goes deep in one event and wins the other, that will show that he's ready for Wimbledon, imo.
(2) Wimbledon seeding. As things stand right now, he would be the 5th seed for Wimbledon. But if he performs well, particularly by winning Halle (a 500 event), he could be the 2 seed at Wimbledon.

Re: seeding, right now Fed and Murray (who will be the #1 seed) are the co-favorites for Wimbledon. It'll be nice for Roger to get the 2 seed to avoid Murray until the final and to avoid Djokovic until the semifinal at least. If he stays a 5 seed, then he could play Murray or Djoker (who has beaten him at Wimby in recent years) as early as the quarters.

[howardlander]

Re: seeding, right now Fed and Murray (who will be the #1 seed) are the co-favorites for Wimbledon. It'll be nice for Roger to get the 2 seed to avoid Murray until the final and to avoid Djokovic until the semifinal at least. If he stays a 5 seed, then he could play Murray or Djoker (who has beaten him at Wimby in recent years) as early as the quarters.

Well, if Roger moves up in seeding, than someone has to move down. Djoker currently holds the 4th ranking, so I think it would be possible/likely that he moves down to 5 or lower and he and Roger could still play the quarters. I saw that Nadal has withdrawn from Queens: Does that means he will go to Wimbledon without any grass court tune up matches or is there another tourney he could play? I suppose this and his recent poor performance at Wimbledon could mean Nadal gets moved out of the top 4 seeds, but he was so dominant at the French that I don't know about that especially since the other 2 times Rafa won the French without losing a set he went on to win at Wimbledon. When will the seeds be announced?

[Troublemaker]

Well, if Roger moves up in seeding, than someone has to move down. Djoker currently holds the 4th ranking, so I think it would be possible/likely that he moves down to 5 or lower and he and Roger could still play the quarters. I saw that Nadal has withdrawn from Queens: Does that means he will go to Wimbledon without any grass court tune up matches or is there another tourney he could play? I suppose this and his recent poor performance at Wimbledon could mean Nadal gets moved out of the top 4 seeds, but he was so dominant at the French that I don't know about that especially since the other 2 times Rafa won the French without losing a set he went on to win at Wimbledon. When will the seeds be announced?

Unlike other Slams, which just use the ATP rankings to seed, Wimbledon uses their own formula that combines the rankings with grasscourt results over the past two years. So, Novak may be ranked #4 in ATP but he's the projected 2-seed at this point. This fan site is useful to track where things stand with the current Wimbledon seeding: www.openerarankings.com/Home.aspx?Race=3

In any case, Roger just lost in the first-round of Stuttgart, so he's eliminated from getting the 2-seed at this point. More importantly, he doesn't get any more match play this week to knock off the rust. The risk of not playing any matches for 2.5 months was always that he would struggle in the grass tuneups and then not have enough match play heading into Wimbledon. He needs to perform much better next week in Halle to both get some matches under his belt and to improve seeding. He can still get as high as a 3-seed.

[howardlander]

Unlike other Slams, which just use the ATP rankings to seed, Wimbledon uses their own formula that combines the rankings with grasscourt results over the past two years. So, Novak may be ranked #4 in ATP but he's the projected 2-seed at this point. This fan site is useful to track where things stand with the current Wimbledon seeding: www.openerarankings.com/Home.aspx?Race=3

That is an interesting site, thanks for posting it. I guess I thought there was some human element in the Wimbledon seeding. Do they go strictly by this formula?

[Troublemaker]

That is an interesting site, thanks for posting it. I guess I thought there was some human element in the Wimbledon seeding. Do they go strictly by this formula?

Correct, there's no human element (other than the human[s] who thought up the formula, of course).

[Troublemaker]

That is an interesting site, thanks for posting it. I guess I thought there was some human element in the Wimbledon seeding. Do they go strictly by this formula?

Here's how they seed, according to the official Wimbledon website: http://www.wimbledon.com/en_GB/atoz/seeds.html

So, on the men's side, it's completely the formula. On the women's side, they DO have the human element, a "committee" that will re-seed the ladies if the committee doesn't like what the rankings produce.

[Troublemaker]

The two major tuneup events for Wimbledon, Queen's and Halle, begin today. This week, we'll see how in-form the two co-favorites for Wimbledon are; Federer plays Halle and Murray plays Queen's as usual.

As someone rooting for Fed to win Wimbledon, I definitely want to see him go deep if not win Halle after last week's first-round loss at Stuttgart. Otherwise, I'm going to be afraid that he lost his amazing early season form after taking the clay season off. And if Murray can win Queen's, then that coupled with his semifinal showing at Roland Garros, could mean that he's coming out of his slump just in time for Wimbledon and would be a deserving co-favorite.

Djokovic and Nadal are not playing tuneups. Wawrinka is playing Queen's with Murray.

[Troublemaker]

With Stan getting bounced from Queen's Club in the first round today, that means Djoker is locked into the 2-seed for Wimbledon.

Roger has to win 2 matches at Halle to surpass Stan for the 4 seed, and he has to win the tournament to surpass Nadal for the 3-seed. (Not that it really matters whether you're the 3-seed or 4-seed).

Wimbledon seeding, as it stands:
1. Murray
2. Djokovic
3. Nadal or Federer
4. Wawrinka or Federer
5. Federer or Wawrinka

[snowdenscold]

Roger has to win 2 matches at Halle to surpass Stan for the 4 seed.

Halfway there for Fed, which is pretty important to avoid getting the rest of the Big 4 in the quarterfinals.

Of course with Murray losing first round today and Djokivic seeming to have checked out for the season now, I'm not sure it's as big a deal as it might used to be. He'd avoid potentially drawing Nadal, but still might end up facing Stan.

[Troublemaker]

Halfway there for Fed, which is pretty important to avoid getting the rest of the Big 4 in the quarterfinals.

Of course with Murray losing first round today and Djokivic seeming to have checked out for the season now, I'm not sure it's as big a deal as it might used to be. He'd avoid potentially drawing Nadal, but still might end up facing Stan.

Yep, and Nadal hasn't even reached the quarterfinals of Wimbledon since 2011, and grass is Stan's worst surface. It's just a really nice opportunity for Fed to break the tie with Sampras by winning his 8th Wimbledon and 19th Grand Slam overall.

There is also an opportunity here for sleeper contenders like Kyrgios and Dimitrov to break through.

[Troublemaker]

Djokovic announced this morning that he will play a tuneup event (Eastbourne) next week. It's irrelevant to seeding as he's for sure the 2-seed, but it's interesting because he usually doesn't play any grass tuneups. I guess with his struggles this season, he wants to build a little momentum before Wimbledon.