2017 French Open and 2017 Wimbledon Championships

[duke79]

Not directly related to this thread but still tennis-related and NOT good news for Boris Becker:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-british-court

I believe Boris has had a somewhat troubled history since his playing days ended. Wasn't he successfully sued by a woman who claimed he fathered a child with her during a 15 minute (or so) liaison in a stairway at bar, after they had just met?

[Troublemaker]

Halfway there for Fed, which is pretty important to avoid getting the rest of the Big 4 in the quarterfinals..

He's all the way there now, into the top 4 seeds, after beating the tricky Mischa Zverev on grass today at Halle.

So the top 5 seeds will be:

1. Murray
2. Djokovic
3. Federer or Nadal
4. Nadal or Federer
5. Wawrinka

The difference between the 3 and 4 seed is negligible. Still, it'd be nice for Fed to win Halle (in which case he will be the 3-seed) and have great momentum going into Wimbledon.

[cato]

He's all the way there now, into the top 4 seeds, after beating the tricky Mischa Zverev on grass today at Halle.

So the top 5 seeds will be:

1. Murray
2. Djokovic
3. Federer or Nadal
4. Nadal or Federer
5. Wawrinka

The difference between the 3 and 4 seed is negligible. Still, it'd be nice for Fed to win Halle (in which case he will be the 3-seed) and have great momentum going into Wimbledon.

3 gets Stan the Man in the Quarters, assuming no early departures, right?

[Troublemaker]

3 gets Stan the Man in the Quarters, assuming no early departures, right?

Any of the top 4 seeds could draw Stan as the 5-seed in the quarters. The draw will occur next week.

[Troublemaker]

Interesting final tomorrow in Halle with Fed going up against 20-year-old Sascha Zverev, who is a likely future #1-ranked player, imo.

[Troublemaker]

Interesting final tomorrow in Halle with Fed going up against 20-year-old Sascha Zverev, who is a likely future #1-ranked player, imo.

Well, Fed absolutely spanked the youngster 6-1, 6-3, in his best match on grass so far. Roger looks ready for Wimbledon.

[Troublemaker]

So, the Wimbledon seeds are locked in (none of this week's grass tuneups or exhibitions will count towards this year's seeding), but the all-important draw will occur on Friday.

Whom are the top 4 seeds maybe looking to avoid in their quarter of the draw?

IMO...

Of seeds 5 thru 12, which the Big Four can meet as early as the quarterfinals, they are hoping to avoid Marin Cilic, who has played his best tennis over the past year, is a past Slam winner, a 3-time Wimbledon quarterfinalist, and loves the grass. I think the top four would be fine drawing any of the other players seeded 5 thru 12. Wawrinka's weakest surface is grass although he did recently hire Paul Annacone to try and improve his game there. Raonic just hasn't played well this season.

Of seeds 13 thru 24, which the Big Four can meet as early as the Sweet 16, the players who are more dangerous than their seeds might indicate are Dimitrov, Pouille, FLopez, Kyrgios, and Querrey. (Although I'm adding Querrey only because he upset Djokovic last year and because I already circled him in the graphic below, but who knows if Sam has another run like that in him?). Kyrgios is the best server in the game, and Lopez just won Queens playing the best tennis of his life somehow at age 35. Maybe the 35-yr-old Roger is motivating him.

Of seeds 25 thru 32, which the Big Four can meet as early as the round of 32, the big name there is, of course, del Potro.

These are the land mines, imo. Can't wait for the draw.

[Troublemaker]

The draws occurred this morning.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_W...ngles#Top_half

Initial thought, as someone rooting for Fed, is that I'm satisfied with his draw. He has a potential tough matchup in the Sweet 16 with Dimitrov, but you can't avoid every single land mine from being in your quarter. I'm okay with his 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round matchups. I'm also okay with the potential Raonic matchup in the QF because he's had a bad season so far.

More thoughts later.

[Troublemaker]

Let's examine the draw for each of the top 4 seeds (complete with real betting odds I grabbed from a sportsbook). Will the Big Four become the Final Four at Wimbledon? Very unlikely, imo.

Let's start with Murray. Andy has the easiest quarter of the Big Four and yet I still can't pick him to advance to the Final Four because I don't think he has the form and/or health, after losing in the 1st round of Queen's Club.

Who's going to come out of there then? Not Stan, because he likes to have time to unwind his powerful strokes, and that's time he doesn't receive on grass.

Kyrgios is such a head case (unfortunate for tennis since he has the talent to be #1).

So I'm left with choosing between the two Frenchmen, Tsonga and Pouille. I'll take the youngster Pouille at 16 to 1 to advance to the Wimbledon semis. I think he likes fast courts (making the QF of both Wimbledon and the US Open last season), and he won one of the grass tuneup tournaments (Stuttgart). In the final of that tourney, he bombed 29 aces to win. He has the game for grass. I'm going out on a limb (16 to 1!!!) and picking Lucas Pouille to the semis.

[Troublemaker]

Next is Nadal's quarter.

I'm definitely not going to pick Rafa to the Final Four, especially not at (-120) odds. In the past 5 years, his finishes at Wimbledon have been: Round of 64, Round of 128, Sweet 16, Round of 64, and Absent. So I feel like I'm playing it safe by asking him to prove that he can actually still play on grass.

Whom do I like then? Marin Cilic at 4 to 1 odds. Cilic has made 3 consecutive QFs at Wimbledon, and it feels like time for him to break through to the semis. Like I wrote upthread, he's played his best tennis over the past year with his current ATP rank (#6) a career high. He's also a former US Open winner so he has big-match experience.

Muller is a grass specialist and will be dangerous, too. Khachanov is a big hitting Russian who will be a sexy pick to knock off Rafa in the Round of 32 if they both get there.

[Troublemaker]

Kyrgios is such a head case (unfortunate for tennis since he has the talent to be #1).

Kyrgios is already eliminated in the first round after previously saying "I can win it" (the tournament). He may have been injured, though.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Kyrgios is already eliminated in the first round after previously saying "I can win it" (the tournament). He may have been injured, though.

Looks like he lost 2 sets in an hour and retired. But admittedly, with him, it's a bit hard to tell how hurt he really was.

[Blue in the Face]

Stan the Man, ousted by newcomer Danil Medvedev. First career win in a major for Medvedev - not a bad way to get your career going.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Let's examine the draw for each of the top 4 seeds (complete with real betting odds I grabbed from a sportsbook). Will the Big Four become the Final Four at Wimbledon? Very unlikely, imo.



Who's going to come out of there then? Not Stan, because he likes to have time to unwind his powerful strokes, and that's time he doesn't receive on grass.

Kyrgios is such a head case (unfortunate for tennis since he has the talent to be #1).

Well, Trouble, THAT was quite impressive, my friend.

[Troublemaker]

Well, Trouble, THAT was quite impressive, my friend.

Thanks, GWD, but I hope to hit on more than just correctly recognizing that the 2nd and 3rd favorite from that quadrant stood no chance. Now, if my boy Pouille wins the quadrant to make the Wimbledon semis despite being 16 to 1, THEN bring on the adulation, although it won't be necessary since I'll be enjoying 16 sweet units won. Pouille looked decent yesterday but will have to step it up even more if he's going to survive this region. I did correctly note upthread that Murray has the softest quarter of the Big Four.

[Troublemaker]

Let's take a quick look at the two quarters that have just started playing this morning.

First, Federer's. Look at how huge a favorite he is at (-185) to make the semis; that's bet $100 on Roger to win $54 if he makes the Wimbledon semis.

That said, as I wrote upthread, I like his draw. He should not be troubled at all in the first 3 rounds of the tournament, so it's basically a two-match quarter for him. He needs to beat Dimitrov in the Sweet 16 (and he has never lost to Dimitrov, who he is a mini-me version of Roger), and then he needs to beat an out-of-form Raonic in the Elite 8. Zverev? Roger just schooled him badly in Halle, and I don't think he can improve that much in a short period of time.

[Troublemaker]

And, lastly, here is Djoker's region. Novak did win the grass tuneup tourney that he joined at the last-minute, so he has a bit of momentum heading into Wimbledon. Still, I can't trust his form since his slump is now a year old. I definitely want to pick someone else to make it out of this region, but I'm not sure whom.

Thiem is a bit of a joke as second-favorite, imo. I consider him to be a clay beast but not that great on grass at this point in his career.

Berdych made the semis last year but has slumped over the past year.

Lopez is a grass specialist who has made the QF three times here, so he would be an interesting Sweet 16 matchup for Novak if they both make it that far.

Delpo's monstrous forehand would likewise be a tough Round of 32 matchup for Novak (although Delpo is struggling in his first-round match right now against a big-hitting Kokkinakis).

Sigh, I just can't quite pull the trigger on any of them. So I'm going to pick Novak by default to win this region. Maybe the win in the grass tuneup sparks him. (As someone rooting for Fed, I will be rooting against Djoker, though. That said, a Fed-Djoker Wimbledon semis would be great entertainment.)

[Indoor66]

What did Yogi say? "It ain't over 'till the fat lady bombs Pearl Harbor" or something like that.

[camion]

"I never said most of the things I said." - Yogi Berra

[Green Wave Dukie]

I haven't watched any yet, and not really read much about it either, but by my count there were 9 matches involving American mens players in the first 2 rounds and American men won 8 of them. (Admittedly Isner played Taylor Fritz, and since this is my polling, I counted that as a win and not a loss). I realize they may all lose in the second round (unlikely), but I can't imagine 8 of 9 first round wins - or anything real close - has happened in the last 5-10 years or more.