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  1. #1
    Dev11's Avatar
    Dev11 is offline Commissioner of Statistics, DBR Podcast
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    DBR Podcast Episode #79: Sorry for the absence

    It's been a while. If my records are correct, June 2017 was the first month we entirely missed since we started the show. Mea culpa.

    Links:

    iTunes
    Google Play
    Soundcloud
    Stitcher

    Timestamps:

    0:00 Welcome back! Jason takes responsibility for the long break between podcasts

    2:10 Let’s debate the merits of one-and-done as it relates to Marvin Bagley and the controversy about bringing in a new player late in the summer

    10:30 Sam challenges Jason’s assertion that guys who don’t get minutes did not deserve more minutes

    21:15 Whew, this is a long conversation. Donald chimes in about the Dominican Republic trip and whether Bagley could potentially join the team in time for it

    27:50 Jason talks about the guys who transferred away from Duke and why their success does not reflect poorly on Duke

    30:40 A new subject, Dukies in the NBA! Donald has a trade suggestion that brings Kyrie Irving to his hometown Pistons.

    36:30 Jason says Kyrie is making a smart move to want to get away from of the mess Lebron is going to leave behind in Cleveland

    42:30 Sam wins the podcast with this line, “The only guys in the NBA who aren’t selfish are the ones who are in good situations.” Boom!!

    45:00 Jason talks about Kyrie’s preferred trade destinations and explains why those teams are on Kyrie’s list

    47:10 Time to talk about the Duke rookies and how they did in NBA Summer League, Donald is excited about what Kennard can do for his Pistons

    55:30 Jason mentions that Harry Giles was absent from NBA Sumer League

    58:00 Duke’s non-conference schedule is out. Sam feels sorry for the folks who had hoped to see a legit opponent in Cameron this season and Jason talks about the St. John’s game, which leads us to wonder how many folks remember Chris Mullin

    1:05:20 Parting shot – Sam talks about the recruiting of Jim Boeheim’s son

    1:06:35 Parting shot – Donald is all about the swag! He’s interested in the 4 new uniform styles for every NBA team

    1:09:45 Goodbye and Duke band

  2. #2
    Well, I'll be the first to respond ... thanks for posting! I appreciate you guys taking the time to do these and it certainly makes my commute more enjoyable thinking more and more about Duke basketball. Some interesting dialogue here definitely, so if you haven't checked it out, definitely do so!

    Now, when I typically listen to a podcast and here people arguing about something, oftentimes I'm thinking: "Come on! Think of THIS example to make the point! Why don't they discuss THAT?!" But that's as far as it goes. In this case, I realize I can actually bring up the point to the people creating the podcast for the first time ever - wow, that's pretty cool, isn't it? So, that's what I'm going to do!

    In the discussion around Bagley and one-and-dones and PT more generally, Jason challenges Sam to come up with somebody that has shown the ability to play with Coach K who didn't get minutes. Sam makes the point that there's not really a way of knowing if a guy has shown the ability to play and isn't playing because we only see the guys PLAYING (who have passed that certain threshold). It's basically a chicken and the egg situation. (And I realize this has been going on in another thread as well which I've read some of, but thought I'd post my response on this one since listening to the arguments in the podcast spurred my thought process here.) My argument is going to be that, yes, Coach K has a COACHING STYLE and preferred method of only playing the best 7 or so guys and no more 3 bigs on a roster. (Yes, I realize Kedsy and others have analyzed this ad nauseum and that's not a 100% ironclad rule for the last 20 years of Coach K rosters, but is a "general guideline.") So, there are often guys "ready to play" that would contribute to some extent that will NOT play, no matter how ready they are because they are "less ready to play" than the others on the roster. Does that mean they don't "deserve" to play? Reasonable minds can differ, but what I wanted to yell at you guys on the podcast was "WHAT ABOUT UNC?!?!" Not that I would trade Ole Huck for Coach K or anything on that dump for what we've got, but I don't think you can dispute that Roy plays his players more (even if they haven't "shown" anything) and they just won a national championship so clearly it paid off!

    Jason - do you honestly think Luke Maye would have played on the Duke team this past year? I sure as heck don't. That guy would have gotten basically 0 minutes except in extreme blowouts. You guys were talking about recruits ranked in the 25-50 range riding the pine, Luke Maye was ranked 179th! (He was also a preferred walk-on last year...not even on scholarship). And he averaged 14 mpg and obviously hit the game winner in the Elite 8, so he absolutely helped them win it all. Can you imagine Coach K playing a recruit in that range as a SOPHOMORE that many minutes? Nope, not gonna happen. Now, you might argue this Duke team was better and more talented, but I'd say two things: 1.) Can't argue with results that UNC just had as they won the national championship, so they were better, and 2.) If Coach K had UNC's roster, still no chance Luke Maye plays. Basically, Roy and Coach K have different coaching philosophies as it comes to playing guys on the bench and as it relates to playing more big men. I think that's an uncontroversial statement. They're just different - sometimes, UNC fans hate Roy for not playing their best players as much as they should and giving other guys too many opportunities, and sometimes Duke fans wish Coach K handled things differently. And the argument that many Duke fans are grappling with today is that would we have more stability and a chance to succeed in the future IF Coach K did handle things differently and play guys that are contributing similar to Luke Maye (well, not guys in the 150+ range, but at least playing guys more consistently in the 30-50 range).

    Now, somebody may suggest, well, that's just because Roy sucks at recruiting and can't get the top players to commit to his program. I'd agree that top recruits have been shunning Chapel Hill recently and Roy has struck out many times (or he's gotten lucky with relatively top players sticking around for some reason), but you can't argue with results this past season for them. What Roy did in playing guys considerable minutes may not always help in the current season, but (may) help for FUTURE seasons. The question that some Duke fans have is that would giving PT to more guys create more stability and more contributing upperclassmen in the program which helps Duke prospects for success? Maybe, maybe not, reasonable minds can differ, but from my perspective, it's clear that Coach K does NOT play ALL guys that "can contribute" - he plays the best 7 or so (and 3 rotating bigs) unless there are injuries or foul trouble and he has no choice. I'd argue that what we saw out of Chase Jeter early this season was BETTER than Luke Maye up to that point...Marty Pocius also comes to mind who showed flashes (but those flashes is all we witnessed in limited PT). But to Sam's point, there's no way to really know one way or the other if guys that don't get PT are "ready or not." Jason saying EWill and Grayson Allen support his point that once guys show they contribute, they get more minutes is interesting but not convincing to me. One could very easily say that EWill and Grayson were ready earlier on that season, but just didn't get minutes to show everybody what they had. When you have a guy play 6 minutes in a game and it's usually garbage time at the end when Duke is running out the clock with a big lead, you can't really look at stats and points (as hardly any points go up on the board at that point, plus guys who play sparingly don't want to just shoot the ball the first thing they do), so I didn't find that convincing personally. Heck, nobody could argue that the US Olympic team wasn't FULL of players that could contribute, yet in games that weren't blowouts (which there weren't many...), Coach K relied on a core set of guys (with 3 rotating bigs).

    Lastly, I don't mean to make this a "short rotation" argument which I realize I probably did too much of above as I've seen all the data that playing a deep bench does NOT helps teams in the NCAA tournament at all and I agree that a team SHOULD go with the best 7 for those critical games and believe Roy has it wrong there for sure (sometimes he gets lucky)...guys in that amazing shape don't get tired from 2 games every week. And I've read the posts on here and read articles like this. BUT, there may be something from a "keeping guys happy" and "developing guys for future years" that IS beneficial in playing guys like Marty Pocius, Silent G, EWill, (Javin) and others more. I absolutely think Marty showed the ability to contribute in my viewing of him (maybe people though his D wasn't great, but it sure beat some other guys who have gotten PT...). That is absolutely not to say that there aren't guys that are willing to work hard and change their fortunes (like we saw with Luke Kennard this year). But a lot of players these days are told they're awesome by everybody in high school and come in with supreme confidence, they want to play -- it's the era we live in. And there may be a benefit (or not) to slightly changing coaching philosophies for long-term benefit and program continuity.

    I think in general some Duke fans just feel burned by the EXTREME turnover after this season and the fact that UNC has basically been terrible at recruiting yet somehow hoisted the trophy at the end of this season. How is that possible?!? And we're looking for possible explanations there.

    Ok, rant over. Thanks for listening.

    GO DUKE!

  3. #3
    one detail y'all failed to mention about Grayson Allen's Fr. season and his playing time: Rasheed Sulaimon and his dismissal from the team. There is no doubt that a large reason (the largest?) that GA didn't get much p.t. early in the year was RS's presence at essentially the same position. Admittedly, in the minutes he did get while RS was on the team, he didn't show that he particularly deserved more. However, had RS not been kicked off the team, i doubt we would have ever really seen GA get anything other than mop-up minutes, let alone win the Championship game for us.

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