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  1. #21
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    Jul 2010
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    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Are you sure we can't transition this thread (which has been an excellent ACC-dedicated summary thread, thanks) into that thread? Like you said, there's not too much news remaining after today, so this thread would just sink to the bottom.

    I'll start by NOT ranking the ACC teams but by playing a lightning-round game called Improves / Maintains / Declines, which is hopefully self-explanatory.

    Improves - Duke, UVA, Miami, NCSU, BC
    Maintains - Louisville, ND, Va Tech, Ga Tech, Wake, Clemson
    Declines - UNC, FSU, Syracuse, Pitt

    Some of my teams in the "Maintains" bucket may have lost key contributors (e.g. Wake with Collins, Clemson with Blossomgame) but I am counting on improvement from the returnees to make up the difference. I haven't really put much thought into this; this is just initial reaction to where their rosters stand.
    Sorry, perhaps it's self-explanatory and I'm completely dense this evening...are the designations I/M/D with respect to conference standings, regular season record, or team ability?

    For example, I think Duke may actually maintain its talent pool and regular season record (give or take a game or two), but improve its standing in the conference (better than fifth).
    Last edited by English; 05-24-2017 at 05:18 PM. Reason: Clarity

  2. #22
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by English View Post
    Sorry, perhaps it's self-explanatory and I'm completely dense this evening...are the designations I/M/D with respect to conference standings, regular season record, or team ability?

    For example, I think Duke may actually maintain its talent pool and regular season record (give or take a game or two), but improve its standing in the conference (better than fifth).
    Team ability. Basically, how good you think they are. No schedule analysis needed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I would also suggest Wake declines ... I don't think they fall off a cliff or anything, but the loss of Collins is huge for them -- and they don't have anything like a replacement.
    I think you've convinced me on Wake. I really like their backcourt (Crawford, Childress, Woods, etc), but yeah, they'll need Mitoglou to really raise his level as a senior and also a surprise season from Doral Moore to not drop off some. It should be noted that Moore used to be a 4-star recruit, though.

    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I'm still trying to put this together, but off the top of my head, the one I disagree with is Virginia Tech in the maintain column. Yes, they lost LeDay and Allen, but they return five starters (Allen and LeDay came off the bench) and regain Kerry Blackshear, their best big man who missed all of last year, and Chris Clarke, their best all-around player, who was lost at midseason with an injury. They also add a five star shooting guard recruit. I expect the Hokies to be significantly stronger next season (and we play them twice!).
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    2. Moving Va Tech from "maintains" to "improves"
    Hmmm, I'll have to take a closer look at the Hokies. I was actually hesitant about putting them in "Maintains" because I thought people would insist they belonged in "Declines" so I'm surprised you guys are saying "Improves".

    I know LeDay and Allen came off the bench, but imo, they were VaTech's two best players. That they came off the bench was, imo, quirky Buzz Williams trying hard to add to his quirky rep. (I love Buzz, btw. Just saying...)

  3. #23
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Given so many youngsters and roster turnover, I dunno how I would categorize Duke. I guess maintains feels more accurate than improves to me at this point, though certainly there is tremendous potential to improve and one could argue that the roster is better constructed (positions and player expectations) than last year's team.
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    As far as preseason predictions goes between last year's and this, Duke is by far in the "Declines". Of course that doesn't mean much, but if you were able to in theory pit this team's talent against last year's, I'd pick last year's 10 times out of 10. On paper, we were an absolute mammoth last season.

  5. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by ndkjr70 View Post
    As far as preseason predictions goes between last year's and this, Duke is by far in the "Declines". Of course that doesn't mean much, but if you were able to in theory pit this team's talent against last year's, I'd pick last year's 10 times out of 10. On paper, we were an absolute mammoth last season.
    If you are just talking raw talent level, I'd agree -- going by Chad Ford's latest mock, Duke could have three lottery picks and a fourth first-round pick next month ... and that doesn't count Amile or Matt, who were two terrific, experienced college players.

    But at the same time, I could easily see next year's team finishing with a better record and going deeper into the NCAA Tournament. Just give the 2018 Devils decent health and I think the roster fits together better. But there is not the same level of talent ... not even close.

    The same applies to NC State -- you have them improving. I assume you expect Coach KK to outcoach Got ... that's certainly possible. But no way the 2018 Pack has much talent with Dennis Smith leaving (not to mention Rowan, Kapita and probably Henderson). Next year's team may fit together better and may play better (I say "may") but in terms of talent, they take a big hit.

    As for Va Tech -- a year ago, Allen and LeDay were their top scorers. But Clarke was -- before he was hurt -- their best player. He was their best defender, their best rebounder, their No. 2 assist man and their No. 3 scorer when he went out. He shot 58.8 percent from the floor. He definitely can take Allen's place. Blackshear showed great promise as a freshman -- he's the best big man in their program. He replaces LeDay. They also return Justin Robinson (one of the three best PGs in the ACC), Justin Bibbs, Ahmed Hill and Ty Outlaw (who exploded late in the season after he replaced the injured Clarke in the starting lineup. That doesn't count Sy, who started 28 games in Blackshear's absence or Alexander-Walker, who is the fifth-rated prospect coming into the ACC this year.

    Virginia Tech has depth, talent and experience. With Blackshear and Cy, they actually have two big men for a change. This core group has gone 29-13 over the last 42 games. They've gone 10-8 in the ACC in each of the last two seasons.

    Yeah, I think they are better next season -- both in talent (with Clarke, Alexander-Walker and Blackshear replacing Allen and LeDay) an in prospects.

  6. #26
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    Mar 2009
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    If you are just talking raw talent level, I'd agree -- going by Chad Ford's latest mock, Duke could have three lottery picks and a fourth first-round pick next month ... and that doesn't count Amile or Matt, who were two terrific, experienced college players.

    But at the same time, I could easily see next year's team finishing with a better record and going deeper into the NCAA Tournament. Just give the 2018 Devils decent health and I think the roster fits together better. But there is not the same level of talent ... not even close.

    The same applies to NC State -- you have them improving. I assume you expect Coach KK to outcoach Got ... that's certainly possible. But no way the 2018 Pack has much talent with Dennis Smith leaving (not to mention Rowan, Kapita and probably Henderson). Next year's team may fit together better and may play better (I say "may") but in terms of talent, they take a big hit.

    As for Va Tech -- a year ago, Allen and LeDay were their top scorers. But Clarke was -- before he was hurt -- their best player. He was their best defender, their best rebounder, their No. 2 assist man and their No. 3 scorer when he went out. He shot 58.8 percent from the floor. He definitely can take Allen's place. Blackshear showed great promise as a freshman -- he's the best big man in their program. He replaces LeDay. They also return Justin Robinson (one of the three best PGs in the ACC), Justin Bibbs, Ahmed Hill and Ty Outlaw (who exploded late in the season after he replaced the injured Clarke in the starting lineup. That doesn't count Sy, who started 28 games in Blackshear's absence or Alexander-Walker, who is the fifth-rated prospect coming into the ACC this year.

    Virginia Tech has depth, talent and experience. With Blackshear and Cy, they actually have two big men for a change. This core group has gone 29-13 over the last 42 games. They've gone 10-8 in the ACC in each of the last two seasons.

    Yeah, I think they are better next season -- both in talent (with Clarke, Alexander-Walker and Blackshear replacing Allen and LeDay) an in prospects.
    Regular season ACC record I'd agree with, and I certainly think they'll go further in the NCAAs, though I don't think that's a good barometer of how good a team is. For example, I think last year's team beats the previous Sweet-16 year's team 10 times out of 10.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by ndkjr70 View Post
    Regular season ACC record I'd agree with, and I certainly think they'll go further in the NCAAs, though I don't think that's a good barometer of how good a team is. For example, I think last year's team beats the previous Sweet-16 year's team 10 times out of 10.
    Before yous tart figuring things like that, I do think you have to study the schedules. Duke is going to play a MUCH easier ACC schedule next season. And it's starting to look like the the non0-conference schedule will be a great deal more challenging.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by ndkjr70 View Post
    As far as preseason predictions goes between last year's and this, Duke is by far in the "Declines". Of course that doesn't mean much, but if you were able to in theory pit this team's talent against last year's, I'd pick last year's 10 times out of 10. On paper, we were an absolute mammoth last season.
    I would say last season's team had much better "on paper depth" but I think next season's "on paper starters" can match up well with last season's "on paper starters."

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
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    Nashville
    Plus, we know how good last year's team actually was, so we don't need to talk about them "on paper". In the end they were a good team but nothing special, and for the coming season I think we will exceed their results, even if it's only because odds are we won't be as injury-riddled. I am firmly in the "Improves" camp.

  10. #30
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    Nov 2007
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    I would say last season's team had much better "on paper depth" but I think next season's "on paper starters" can match up well with last season's "on paper starters."
    yup, last year our bench could beat up your bench, even if they didn't get to play.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    As for Va Tech -- a year ago, Allen and LeDay were their top scorers. But Clarke was -- before he was hurt -- their best player. He was their best defender, their best rebounder, their No. 2 assist man and their No. 3 scorer when he went out. He shot 58.8 percent from the floor. He definitely can take Allen's place. Blackshear showed great promise as a freshman -- he's the best big man in their program. He replaces LeDay. They also return Justin Robinson (one of the three best PGs in the ACC), Justin Bibbs, Ahmed Hill and Ty Outlaw (who exploded late in the season after he replaced the injured Clarke in the starting lineup. That doesn't count Sy, who started 28 games in Blackshear's absence or Alexander-Walker, who is the fifth-rated prospect coming into the ACC this year.

    Virginia Tech has depth, talent and experience. With Blackshear and Cy, they actually have two big men for a change. This core group has gone 29-13 over the last 42 games. They've gone 10-8 in the ACC in each of the last two seasons.

    Yeah, I think they are better next season -- both in talent (with Clarke, Alexander-Walker and Blackshear replacing Allen and LeDay) an in prospects.
    The more I research this, the more I like Virginia Tech next year. I forgot that they redshirted Devin Wilson, a serviceable ACC guard (he went out for football and that made him late to rejoin their basketball team. He's not a great player, but he's got something like 15 starts in his career. Also, VPI could add Johnny Hamilton, a 7-footer who missed all but three games last year with a broken toe. Again, not a great player, but a solid three-string center.

    Virginia Tech is trading two good players -- LeDay and Allen -- for Clarke, Blackshear, five-star Alexander Walker, Devin Wilson and Johnny Hamilton, plus the added experience for last year's starting five. And that's adding to a 25-win, NCAA team.

  12. #32
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    Feb 2007
    Brian Bowen, the only remaining uncommitted top-25 recruit in the class of 2017, visited Louisville today. The Cards even got a couple of Crystal Ball predictions in for Bowen, but not sure how meaningful those picks are.

    But yeah, the ACC picture isn't quite set yet with Bowen out there and Cam Johnson still possible to UNC IF they can get Pitt to remove the block.

  13. #33
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Brian Bowen, the only remaining uncommitted top-25 recruit in the class of 2017, visited Louisville today. The Cards even got a couple of Crystal Ball predictions in for Bowen, but not sure how meaningful those picks are.

    But yeah, the ACC picture isn't quite set yet with Bowen out there and Cam Johnson still possible to UNC IF they can get Pitt to remove the block.
    Bowen to Louisville now has a ton of momentum in the Crystal Ball.

  14. #34
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    Feb 2007
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    Washington, D.C.

    So

    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Bowen to Louisville now has a ton of momentum in the Crystal Ball.
    Does that make the Ball roll?

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Does that make the Ball roll?
    Just like Knox to Duke!

  16. #36
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    Mar 2008
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    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    Bowen to Louisville now has a ton of momentum in the Crystal Ball.
    This is huge news for Louisville. I have said it many times here, but will say it one more time - Bowen is tremendous, very Rip Hamilton-esque. He does a ton of things that result in his teams winning a lot. This is a setback for Michigan State - I have to think Miles Bridges decision to return had some impact here...
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  17. #37
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    Mar 2007
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    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    The more I research this, the more I like Virginia Tech next year. I forgot that they redshirted Devin Wilson, a serviceable ACC guard (he went out for football and that made him late to rejoin their basketball team. He's not a great player, but he's got something like 15 starts in his career. Also, VPI could add Johnny Hamilton, a 7-footer who missed all but three games last year with a broken toe. Again, not a great player, but a solid three-string center.

    Virginia Tech is trading two good players -- LeDay and Allen -- for Clarke, Blackshear, five-star Alexander Walker, Devin Wilson and Johnny Hamilton, plus the added experience for last year's starting five. And that's adding to a 25-win, NCAA team.
    Totally agree with the above. And Buzz Williams is a grinder of a coach who has team buy-in. VT will be tough for sure.

  18. #38
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    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by gam7 View Post
    This is huge news for Louisville. I have said it many times here, but will say it one more time - Bowen is tremendous, very Rip Hamilton-esque. He does a ton of things that result in his teams winning a lot. This is a setback for Michigan State - I have to think Miles Bridges decision to return had some impact here...
    I thought Bowen was really good when I saw him in the televised end-of-year All Star games. This is a heck of a pick-up for Pitino and Co.

  19. #39
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    Mar 2008
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    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I thought Bowen was really good when I saw him in the televised end-of-year All Star games. This is a heck of a pick-up for Pitino and Co.
    Yeah, and his team (at La Lumiere, a relatively normal high school, I think, as compared to the Oak Hills and Findlay Preps of the world) won the Dick's national championship this year and lost on a buzzer beater to Oak Hill in the finals last year. (He had some help at La Lumiere with another McDonald's All-American and Michigan State commit, Michigan commit, and a top 25 PG from the class of 2019, but still...) Coach K's quote about Singler's role being "winner" will also apply to Bowen.

    I've been wondering why it has taken him so long to announce (which he hasn't even really even done yet), and I think a couple of good explanations are that (1) Miles Bridges' decision to return; and (2) his high school coach at La Lumiere was hired a month ago as an assistant at DePaul, which may have given him some unexpected things to think about (though it doesn't explain the Louisville emergence, which seems to have come out of left field).
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Brian Bowen says he will announce on Saturday afternoon...

    ...but this is one announcement with zero drama because yesterday Bowen enrolled in summer school classes at Louisville. He waited so long to make his pick, he got scooped by his own matriculation. That doesn't happen very often!

    I suppose Bowen could still pick some other school, but it sure seems like he is a lock for Louisville. They are going to be quite good next season. I put them along side Duke as the pre-season conference favorites.

    -Jason "Pitino always does a great job of landing guys who can D it up... Bowen is no exception" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

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