2017-18 Minutes Discussion (Post-Duval)

[MarkD83]

So if Jordan jack and Alex are all in the mix for the 7th spot in the rotation is that not a 9 man rotation. I am still hoping😉

[Kedsy]

Not trying to be controversial, but if DeLaurier and Jack White are not in the rotation next season, I believe they will decamp to another school.

Let me ask you this: a year from now, will you be saying the same thing about Jordan Goldwire? Because he's not going to be in the rotation as a sophomore (probably ever, but who knows?) and he's not going to transfer. IMO, Jack White has a lot more in common with Jordan G than with, say, Chase Jeter.

Javin DeLaurier, you may have a point. He was ranked #35 out of high school, would have started at most schools in the country, last season. But Jack? He was ranked something like #236 out of high school. He doesn't have a reasonable expectation of rotation minutes as a sophomore, and thus is highly unlikely to transfer out of frustration.

If K decides to run with 6 and/or not go with Tucker it won't be from insanity, it may be because he has no other options.

I'm with Troublemaker on this. The reason your 6-man rotation won't work is because you have three big men (for two positions) and three perimeter players (for three positions). Someone has to back up the three perimeter spots. And even if all three of Grayson, Trevon, and Gary play 36 minutes each, there's still 12 left for the backup. And, to me, 12 mpg is part of the rotation.

In the past seasons when we've played 6-man rotations, one of the six was someone like Mike Dunleavy, who could play either perimeter or interior. It can't work with, e.g., Wendell Carter, Marques Bolden, and Antonio Vrankovic as three of the six.

So if Jordan jack and Alex are all in the mix for the 7th spot in the rotation is that not a 9 man rotation. I am still hoping😉

No, because that's not how Coach K works. If there's 12 mpg available for the 7th man, he's not going to split it 4/4/4 with three guys, he's going to give it to one guy. And even if he did split it, then we'd be back to a 6-man rotation, because playing 4 mpg (or even 6mpg) can't reasonably be considered to be a rotation player.

Really like Bamba on and off the court, but think a grad student PG would be more valuable. Don't need another big and don't think Goldwire will be ready. Nice luxury to have an experienced PG who can play 5 MPG and/or be used in emergencies. Also useful to test the waters on a grad school transfer.

In each of the last several seasons, DBR posters have advocated getting a grad transfer to be a 5 to 10 mpg backup. But as tbyers11 pointed out, that makes no sense. Why would any grad transfer want to do that? These days, grad transfers are in heavy demand. If a kid's going to switch schools for a single season, he's going to do it for a situation where he's going to play a lot (otherwise, why bother?).

thank you for this. judging by your prior posts, you are in the 6.5 player rotation camp, with javin being first off the bench and the half being tucker (but could easily by someone else)?

Well, as I said above, I think one of Jordan T/Jack/Alex is going to get the 12 mpg left over from the three starting perimeter guys, and I expect Javin to get 15 to 25 mpg backup up the two big guys. To me, that's a 7-man rotation. (I'd define a 6.5 man rotation as someone who sometimes plays 10+ and other times doesn't, averaging maybe 8 mpg, but I admit that's arbitrary.)

[MChambers]

This has come up a couple of times. The kid grew up in Australia, for heaven's sake, where he seemed to be highly thought of. What the heck was the basis of assigning him any ranking at all? Not arguing, just assuming I am missing something.

In Australia, he was ranked #95, but since that's the Southern Hemisphere, it's more or less the equivalent of the RSCI #5 here.

[MarkD83]

Do you pick between Jordan jack and Alex by their play in practice or give them more minutes in early season games. I think more minutes in games is the better choice.

[kAzE]

I'm with Troublemaker on this. The reason your 6-man rotation won't work is because you have three big men (for two positions) and three perimeter players (for three positions). Someone has to back up the three perimeter spots. And even if all three of Grayson, Trevon, and Gary play 36 minutes each, there's still 12 left for the backup. And, to me, 12 mpg is part of the rotation.

In the past seasons when we've played 6-man rotations, one of the six was someone like Mike Dunleavy, who could play either perimeter or interior. It can't work with, e.g., Wendell Carter, Marques Bolden, and Antonio Vrankovic as three of the six.

No, because that's not how Coach K works. If there's 12 mpg available for the 7th man, he's not going to split it 4/4/4 with three guys, he's going to give it to one guy. And even if he did split it, then we'd be back to a 6-man rotation, because playing 4 mpg (or even 6mpg) can't reasonably be considered to be a rotation player.

Well, as I said above, I think one of Jordan T/Jack/Alex is going to get the 12 mpg left over from the three starting perimeter guys, and I expect Javin to get 15 to 25 mpg backup up the two big guys. To me, that's a 7-man rotation. (I'd define a 6.5 man rotation as someone who sometimes plays 10+ and other times doesn't, averaging maybe 8 mpg, but I admit that's arbitrary.)

Hey, everything you said sounds a lot like my rotation that I posted back on page 1!

PG: Duval (32), Allen (8)
SG: Allen (28), Trent (12)
SF: Trent (20), Tucker (14), White (6)
PF: Carter (20), DeLaurier (20)
C: Bolden (28), Carter (12)

Only, I don't have Duval and Trent playing 36 minutes each. I gave them 32 each, and split the remaining 8 minutes to Tucker and White.

But I do think 36+ minutes each to Allen/Trent/Duval makes sense for more important games. And I agree that the 7th man (or even one of the starters) will end up taking all of those extra minutes that I currently have going to Tucker & White in that type of situation. (The 12 minutes you mentioned)

For example, it wasn't uncommon for Luke or Matt to play 38-40 minutes in some games last year.

[79-77]

My 2 cents:

- I agree that the rotation will settle at 7 or 7.5 guys.

- I think both White and Tucker have a shot at the perimeter bench slot. I could see O'Connell making a bid if he shoots like a Curry, but otherwise it's not likely.

- I wouldn't be surprised if White separates himself and wins the spot by showing some Aussie nasty -- although that is really based more on a generalization of Aussie players than on anything White in particular has displayed.

- Similarly, I think both Javin and Vrank have a shot at the post bench slot. I haven't seen anything from either of them to indicate a clear edge over the other.

- I think it's generally harder and less common for freshman bigs to play big minutes than it is for freshman guards, so I kinda expect Carter to play closer to 29-31 min per game than 34-35.

- If Bolden plays 28 min per game and Carter plays 30, that leaves 22 min per game for Javin and/or Vrank.

- I expect Duval and Allen to play 35+ min per game, and Trent about 30, leaving about 18 minutes for White and/or Tucker.

[MChambers]

Do you pick between Jordan jack and Alex by their play in practice or give them more minutes in early season games. I think more minutes in games is the better choice.

Coach K has usually stressed play in practice.

[jipops]

This has come up a couple of times. The kid grew up in Australia, for heaven's sake, where he seemed to be highly thought of. What the heck was the basis of assigning him any ranking at all? Not arguing, just assuming I am missing something.

The point I was making there was these two fellas likely had different expectations of themselves coming to Duke. Jack can probably stomach not playing more than Javin.

[jipops]

Correct, a player of Jordan Tucker's ranking does not usually play as a freshman for Duke. But these are not normal circumstances.

Once you have eliminated the impossible (playing Duval, Allen, and Trent 40 mpg), whatever remains -- no matter how improbable -- must be the truth. Jordan Tucker (or someone) will be in the rotation as the 4th perimeter player.

Correct. Duval, Allen, and Trent will not play 40. Pretty obvious there. So if somebody is filling in spot duty to give someone a breather is labeled as rotation then we'll have that. I just don't see a perimeter player outside of those 3 as making any real impact nor getting much time to do so. Similar to Jeter's impact in games after December. I would not be at all surprised to see our 3 perimeter guys go the entire 2nd half in some ACC games, fouls permitting. In any case we likely have 6 guys on the roster capable of making any significant impact. Those are the types of guys K plays.

[jimsumner]

I agree that it's likely too late for a quality grad-student option. But our hypothetical transfer could easily be a combo guard, capable of playing both point and off the ball, which might expand the available PT to the 15-20 mpg range.

In any case, there will be 120 mpg available at the 1-3 and Duval, Allen and Trent can't be expected to play more than 100 or so. And none of the post players is likely to play on the perimeter. That leaves a full rotation spot available for a backup perimeter player.

[sagegrouse]

Let me ask you this: a year from now, will you be saying the same thing about Jordan Goldwire? Because he's not going to be in the rotation as a sophomore (probably ever, but who knows?) and he's not going to transfer. IMO, Jack White has a lot more in common with Jordan G than with, say, Chase Jeter.

Javin DeLaurier, you may have a point. He was ranked #35 out of high school, would have started at most schools in the country, last season. But Jack? He was ranked something like #236 out of high school. He doesn't have a reasonable expectation of rotation minutes as a sophomore, and thus is highly unlikely to transfer out of frustration.

The story out of the Aussie press when Jack came to the US was his statement that he was delighted to go to Duke, and he would see if he could make the starting lineup. I have no idea what K told him on the recruiting trail. Jack was enrolled at the Australia Institute of Sport in Canberra, and my assumption is that he's gonna play basketball in America -- if not at Duke, then somewhere else.

Jordan Goldwire knows he's coming to play on the second unit in practice, and his best other opportunity was at Eastern Kentucky. I agree -- he's not going anywhere. I also think he could get some serious minutes before his Duke career is over.

[53n206]

I want our number one guys, at each position, to playi about 28 minutes per game. That will leave 12 minutes of mop up for every game except Carolina, when we'll have 20 minutes of my mop up. It's about 6:30 in central time and I have not yet started to drink. I may post later and change some of these minutes per game.

[jv001]

I'm not going to discuss team minutes in detail this early. One thing that does come to mind is Bolden's minutes. Will we see the Marquis that was slated to be in the starting lineup before his injury? Or, will we see the Bolden that seemed to gather fouls quicker than a Curry 3 or a Kyrie crossover? If Marquis does not play up to his potential, we could be in real trouble. As for last season, I thought that Vrank was a more dependable reserve than Marquis. I'm really hoping he comes in motivated and in tip top shape. He could possibly make this a special team. GoDuke!

[Troublemaker]

To me, his long term role would be a combo forward. Ideally, he adds enough strength to become a solid rebounder, so that he can be a full time stretch 4. The bigger he can play, the more valuable he becomes. His shooting ability would allow him to take opposing big men out of the paint area.

I agree that IF Tucker could play stretch-4, that would make him very valuable on this and future Duke teams.

I don't know if he has the size, though, despite that photo of him being toned and muscular.

Jordan was measured last year as 6'7", 6'7" wingspan, 205 lbs, 8'6" standing reach. Now, perhaps he's grown a little bit since then, but unless he's grown A LOT in the past year, I think he's only slightly more appropriate as a stretch-4 than Gary Trent, who is 6'6", 6'8" wingspan, 215 lbs, 8'4" standing reach.

In comparison, Duke's smallest stretch-4 in recent years was Justise, who measured 6'6", 6'10" wingspan, 222 lbs, 8'8" standing reach. That superior wingspan and standing reach makes a difference, imo.

I think I'd be most comfortable with JTuck as a full-time SF for this and future seasons.

My hopes for a stretch-4 are with Javin and Jack. One has to learn how to shoot. The other has to show that he's good.

[jimsumner]

I agree that IF Tucker could play stretch-4, that would make him very valuable on this and future Duke teams.

I don't know if he has the size, though, despite that photo of him being toned and muscular.

Jordan was measured last year as 6'7", 6'7" wingspan, 205 lbs, 8'6" standing reach. Now, perhaps he's grown a little bit since then, but unless he's grown A LOT in the past year, I think he's only slightly more appropriate as a stretch-4 than Gary Trent, who is 6'6", 6'8" wingspan, 215 lbs, 8'4" standing reach.

In comparison, Duke's smallest stretch-4 in recent years was Justise, who measured 6'6", 6'10" wingspan, 222 lbs, 8'8" standing reach. That superior wingspan and standing reach makes a difference, imo.

I think I'd be most comfortable with JTuck as a full-time SF for this and future seasons.

My hopes for a stretch-4 are with Javin and Jack. One has to learn how to shoot. The other has to show that he's good.

I'm not sure DeLaurier will ever be a stretch 4 in the Shane Battier, Ryan Kelly sense of the word. But he certainly could be a Lance-Thomas-kind of power forward. Rebound, defend, run the court, baskets of opportunity. And down the road maybe he could do a Tony Lang and learn to shoot.

[chriso]

I'm not sure DeLaurier will ever be a stretch 4 in the Shane Battier, Ryan Kelly sense of the word. But he certainly could be a Lance-Thomas-kind of power forward. Rebound, defend, run the court, baskets of opportunity. And down the road maybe he could do a Tony Lang and learn to shoot.

I agree DeLaurier could be a real good power forward this year and beyond. Even a guy who could be good enough to move on after 3 years. I think Duval is going to make all our guys look better. I am so much more optimistic about our team than I was last week.

[Kedsy]

As for last season, I thought that Vrank was a more dependable reserve than Marquis.

For those who believe Antonio Vrankovic and Jack White are known commodities who have shown they can play at this level, consider this: last season, if you don't count the 50 point blowout against Georgia Tech, Antonio played a total of 10 minutes against ACC competition (he also played 1 minute against ACC competition in 2015-16), and Jack played a total of 6 minutes against ACC competition (for comparison's sake, Marques played 106 minutes against ACC competition, not counting Ga Tech).

So, we have two guys (Antonio and Jack) who were ranked outside the top 200 coming out of high school and who essentially haven't played in any college game that matters. On what, exactly, are people basing their opinions that either of these guys have shown enough to warrant future playing time? I mean, I guess almost anything's possible, but to say that Antonio is going to beat out Marques or Javin for playing time, or that Jack is going to beat out Jordan T or even Alex for playing time, is actually much more of a wild hunch than that of the people who are enamored with the "shiny new toys," because those shiny toys have at least been evaluated as pretty good by the recruiting experts.

[jipops]

For those who believe Antonio Vrankovic and Jack White are known commodities who have shown they can play at this level, consider this: last season, if you don't count the 50 point blowout against Georgia Tech, Antonio played a total of 10 minutes against ACC competition (he also played 1 minute against ACC competition in 2015-16), and Jack played a total of 6 minutes against ACC competition (for comparison's sake, Marques played 106 minutes against ACC competition, not counting Ga Tech).

So, we have two guys (Antonio and Jack) who were ranked outside the top 200 coming out of high school and who essentially haven't played in any college game that matters. On what, exactly, are people basing their opinions that either of these guys have shown enough to warrant future playing time? I mean, I guess almost anything's possible, but to say that Antonio is going to beat out Marques or Javin for playing time, or that Jack is going to beat out Jordan T or even Alex for playing time, is actually much more of a wild hunch than that of the people who are enamored with the "shiny new toys," because those shiny toys have at least been evaluated as pretty good by the recruiting experts.

Don't forget Javin who played in only 2 ACC games for a grand total of 8 minutes. Also has a lesser PER than White or Vrank.

[Kedsy]

Don't forget Javin who played in only 2 ACC games for a grand total of 8 minutes.

Yeah but, again, he at least has some cred as a top 35 prospect out of high school. It doesn't mean everything, but it means something.

[jipops]

Yeah but, again, he at least has some cred as a top 35 prospect out of high school. It doesn't mean everything, but it means something.

Much of the time it can. Many times it doesn't. As K has stated, everyone runs their own race. Plenty of top 40 guys have taken a few years to truly become impact players. I think Javin will get there, I'm just not counting on it for year 2.