2017-18 Minutes Discussion (Post-Duval)

[Troublemaker]

I could see the possibility of Tucker coming in for a few possessions in the first half during ACC play. But I have no expectation he will see any meaningful minutes. I can see his burn being similar to Jeter this past season before injury...a decent bit in the early part of the season and then almost nothing afterwards. If you want to consider that a part of the rotation, fine. But in my opinion we'll only see 6 guys playing any meaningful minutes.

No, I would definitely NOT consider that being part of the rotation. My point was more that you are wrong about your rotation projection; it wasn't an argument over the semantics of what counts as being in or out of the rotation.

Tucker will at least receive Andre Dawkins' 12 mpg from 2010, but probably more because Duval and Trent won't have the upperclassman stamina that Scheyer, Smith, and Singler had.

Coach K's just going to have to bite the bullet on this one. I know Tucker typically isn't someone he would play 15-20 mpg as a freshman, but he'll do it because he's not insane.

[ChillinDuke]

No, I would definitely NOT consider that being part of the rotation. My point was more that you are wrong about your rotation projection; it wasn't an argument over the semantics of what counts as being in or out of the rotation.

Tucker will at least receive Andre Dawkins' 12 mpg from 2010, but probably more because Duval and Trent won't have the upperclassman stamina that Scheyer, Smith, and Singler had.

Coach K's just going to have to bite the bullet on this one. I know Tucker typically isn't someone he would play 15-20 mpg as a freshman, but he'll do it because he's not insane.

Agreed that someone is going to receive Andre-like minutes. I would expect those minutes to be totally up for grabs - probably between Jordan, Alex, and Jack. That said, I end up agreeing with you again that Jordan is most likely to win that battle, based on what little I've seen of the three of them.

- Chillin

[flyingdutchdevil]

Agreed that someone is going to receive Andre-like minutes. I would expect those minutes to be totally up for grabs - probably between Jordan, Alex, and Jack. That said, I end up agreeing with you again that Jordan is most likely to win that battle, based on what little I've seen of the three of them.

- Chillin

Yeah, exactly my thinking. Someone is getting minutes. I just have no idea who. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Duke gets a proven grad transfer at the last second.

[kAzE]

Agreed that someone is going to receive Andre-like minutes. I would expect those minutes to be totally up for grabs - probably between Jordan, Alex, and Jack. That said, I end up agreeing with you again that Jordan is most likely to win that battle, based on what little I've seen of the three of them.

- Chillin

One of those 3 is going to be in the 7 man rotation playing 10+ minutes, and my bet is on Tucker. I think Jack White gets the "Andre" or "Bolden from last year" minutes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

One of those 3 is going to be in the 7 man rotation playing 10+ minutes, and my bet is on Tucker. I think Jack White gets the "Andre" or "Bolden from last year" minutes.

Tucker seems like the natural choice, given that he's the highest ranked.

But which ever player plays the best D is likely to get the role. Unfortunately, neither of the 3 players comes with a defensive reputation. So let's see how this plays out in practice. My vote? Tucker...

[budwom]

I think you might be mistaking his skinniness for length . . .

Maybe he's suddenly sprouted longer arms in the past few months, but he was measured in July 2016 at the Nike basketball academy with a 6'3.5" wingspan, which is below average for a basketball player of his height (6'4.5")

He's very, very skinny, but in terms of his actual measured length, he's not that long. If you just look at the picture you posted, the guy guarding him has way longer arms.

Regardless, Jordan Tucker has a 6'7" wingspan, so Alex O'Connell is neither bigger nor longer than Jordan Tucker. But I don't really think either of them play the same position anyway. JT is definitely a forward, and Alex is clearly a guard.

For the record, I don't think Alex plays much this year, unless there is a back court injury (hope not) or major back court foul trouble. JT is much more physically ready to compete at this level as a freshman.

Yup, I think O'Connell has Scheyer Neck. More elongated than long, if that distinction can be made.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Yup, I think O'Connell has Scheyer Neck. More elongated than long, if that distinction can be made.

That's a massive disservice to Scheyer. "Scheyer Neck" is one of the most unique features of any athlete ever. That's like saying Trevon Duval is as beautiful as Winslow. People have died for saying less!

O'Connell's neck isn't close to the 8th natural wonder.

/rant over

[kAzE]

That's a massive disservice to Scheyer. "Scheyer Neck" is one of the most unique features of any athlete ever. That's like saying Trevon Duval is as beautiful as Winslow. People have died for saying less!

O'Connell's neck isn't close to the 8th natural wonder.

/rant over

If I'm being totally honest (and I mean absolutely no disrespect to Alex in any way), I think his slight face/head makes his limbs (and neck) look longer than they really are. Again, just from the picture Jason posted, the guy guarding him has a massive head by comparison.

Also, Scheyer Face is way more of a natural wonder than Scheyer Neck

PHO-09Mar26-155873.jpg

[Troublemaker]

When you compare the recently posted photos of Alex and Jordan, you can see why it's a relatively easy call to project Jordan in the rotation and not Alex.

Jordan is 19 yrs old (and will turn 20 the day after the 2018 national championship game) and 205-lbs of good, toned muscle. Alex is 18 years old (14 months younger than Jordan), is very thin, and is about 165-lbs.

I mean, if either Luke or Frank had returned for next season, Alex would've been a candidate for a redshirt.

[sagegrouse]

Not trying to be controversial, but if DeLaurier and Jack White are not in the rotation next season, I believe they will decamp to another school. The logic is as follows: While it's OK to sit as a rookie behind more highly rated freshmen -- and Jayson was and is a phenom -- and more accomplished upperclassmen, that won't work sophomore year. Moreover, Duke is returning only Grayson and maybe Marques with college experience. DeLaurier is a very athletic college power forward and Jack White is a physically mature and athletic wing player. I don't see them "sitting still" for "sitting on the bench."

I actually expect both to play, in part because I am highly suspect (that's an understatement) of the abilities of incoming freshmen, no matter the ranking, to play Duke-style defense and in part because I think they are legitimate ACC players who will earn their minutes.

[Kedsy]

are there any historical precedents for a 6 man rotation - i'm guessing there is, but i don't have a good memory for this stuff.

In 2016, out of 22 close (< 20 pts) games after January 1, we had 6 or fewer guys playing 10+ minutes in 19 of those games (86%) -- truly a 6-man rotation. In 2002, we only played 11 such games, and had 6 guys playing 10+ minutes in 8 of the 11 (73%). In 2000, it was 11 of 16 games (69%); in 1985, it was 10 of 19 games (53%); in 2001, it was 8 of 16 (50%); and in 2015, it was 10 of 20 games (50%). Those are the closest we've had to 6 or 6.5 man rotations under Coach K.

[jipops]

No, I would definitely NOT consider that being part of the rotation. My point was more that you are wrong about your rotation projection; it wasn't an argument over the semantics of what counts as being in or out of the rotation.

Tucker will at least receive Andre Dawkins' 12 mpg from 2010, but probably more because Duval and Trent won't have the upperclassman stamina that Scheyer, Smith, and Singler had.

Coach K's just going to have to bite the bullet on this one. I know Tucker typically isn't someone he would play 15-20 mpg as a freshman, but he'll do it because he's not insane.

And I thought my wife was the only one questioning my sanity...

Dawkins was a 5-star guard who played 12 mpg for a team that only had 2 other guards on its roster and another perimeter player in Singler. Tucker is a 4-star perimeter player (true he is not strictly a guard) coming to a team that has more than 2 other perimeter players. We'll see. Your argument based on the experience of Scheyer, Smith, and Singler in comparison to our current guys certainly holds water. But I feel like we see this board get burned every year banking on the production of a player that has come in less heralded than others. I just don't see Tucker as being a guy K leans on for very much this upcoming season. We don't even know if he is even ready for this level of competition. Semi Ojeleye was all everything in the state of Kansas yet he came to Duke not ready to contribute. If K decides to run with 6 and/or not go with Tucker it won't be from insanity, it may be because he has no other options.

[jipops]

Not trying to be controversial, but if DeLaurier and Jack White are not in the rotation next season, I believe they will decamp to another school. The logic is as follows: While it's OK to sit as a rookie behind more highly rated freshmen -- and Jayson was and is a phenom -- and more accomplished upperclassmen, that won't work sophomore year. Moreover, Duke is returning only Grayson and maybe Marques with college experience. DeLaurier is a very athletic college power forward and Jack White is a physically mature and athletic wing player. I don't see them "sitting still" for "sitting on the bench."

I actually expect both to play, in part because I am highly suspect (that's an understatement) of the abilities of incoming freshmen, no matter the ranking, to play Duke-style defense and in part because I think they are legitimate ACC players who will earn their minutes.

This really depends on the players themselves and how much they have worked to improve their games. I know there are many, maybe most, on this board that expect DeLaurier to be a significant rotational contributor next season. But that seems to make some assumptions about what he's going to bring to the table. We know he's long (6-9 or 6-10 now?) and a good run and jump guy. But that's pretty much it. He very briefly took part in 2 ACC games last season. It seems like playing to Javin's strengths would be an offense that gets out a lot in transition. But I don't see that happening with this year's team with its youth and lack of perimeter depth. So a lot depends on how much he has improved his offensive game in half court. And I really have no idea what to expect of him defensively. Maybe he can block some shots, provided he's not foul prone. You can't just assume a guy is going to be strong defensively just because he's an athlete. Javin was a top 50 guy coming in so he may very well have the expectation of getting significant minutes in his 2nd year. So I can see how he would feel let down if that doesn't happen.

Jack White, on the other hand, may have a different outlook. He wasn't even in the top 100 coming out of high school so I'd be surprised if he was coming in to this season expecting significant minutes as a sophomore.

[Troublemaker]

And I thought my wife was the only one questioning my sanity...

Dawkins was a 5-star guard who played 12 mpg for a team that only had 2 other guards on its roster and another perimeter player in Singler. Tucker is a 4-star perimeter player (true he is not strictly a guard) coming to a team that has more than 2 other perimeter players. We'll see. Your argument based on the experience of Scheyer, Smith, and Singler in comparison to our current guys certainly holds water. But I feel like we see this board get burned every year banking on the production of a player that has come in less heralded than others. I just don't see Tucker as being a guy K leans on for very much this upcoming season. We don't even know if he is even ready for this level of competition. Semi Ojeleye was all everything in the state of Kansas yet he came to Duke not ready to contribute. If K decides to run with 6 and/or not go with Tucker it won't be from insanity, it may be because he has no other options.

Correct, a player of Jordan Tucker's ranking does not usually play as a freshman for Duke. But these are not normal circumstances.

Once you have eliminated the impossible (playing Duval, Allen, and Trent 40 mpg), whatever remains -- no matter how improbable -- must be the truth. Jordan Tucker (or someone) will be in the rotation as the 4th perimeter player.

[FadedTackyShirt]

...I wouldn't be surprised at all if Duke gets a proven grad transfer at the last second.

Really like Bamba on and off the court, but think a grad student PG would be more valuable. Don't need another big and don't think Goldwire will be ready. Nice luxury to have an experienced PG who can play 5 MPG and/or be used in emergencies. Also useful to test the waters on a grad school transfer.

[tbyers11]

Really like Bamba on and off the court, but think a grad student PG would be more valuable. Don't need another big and don't think Goldwire will be ready. Nice luxury to have an experienced PG who can play 5 MPG and/or be used in emergencies. Also useful to test the waters on a grad school transfer.

A grad-student transfer playing the role that you describe would be a good thing for Duke. However, I'm not sure how many grad student transfers would want to come into that situation.

Grad student transfers, at least ones who would be good enough to crack the rotation at Duke, seem to fall into 2 camps to me

• Power 5 player looking for a situation to get more playing time because of less competition at their position. Think Dylan Ennis going to Oregon from Villanova. Villanova was pretty stacked at PG while Oregon wasn't
• Mid-major "stars" looking to upgrade their competition to enhance their professional futures. Think Damion Lee going from Drexel to Louisville.

Perhaps there is the perfect match of a player who is good enough to get playing time at Duke, but satisfied with only 5-10 mpg. This late in the game it doesn't seem like that player is out there, though.

[Natty_B]

This late in the game it doesn't seem like that player is out there, though.

There isn't. The grad transfer thing isn't happening.

[bob blue devil]

In 2016, out of 22 close (< 20 pts) games after January 1, we had 6 or fewer guys playing 10+ minutes in 19 of those games (86%) -- truly a 6-man rotation. In 2002, we only played 11 such games, and had 6 guys playing 10+ minutes in 8 of the 11 (73%). In 2000, it was 11 of 16 games (69%); in 1985, it was 10 of 19 games (53%); in 2001, it was 8 of 16 (50%); and in 2015, it was 10 of 20 games (50%). Those are the closest we've had to 6 or 6.5 man rotations under Coach K.

thank you for this. judging by your prior posts, you are in the 6.5 player rotation camp, with javin being first off the bench and the half being tucker (but could easily by someone else)?

[CDu]

There isn't. The grad transfer thing isn't happening.

Yeah, I don't like using absolutes. But I feel quite strongly that the grad transfer option at PG left when Duval committed. Had we not gotten Duval? Then yeah, a grad PG would make sense for both sides. But not now.

[sagegrouse]

Jack White, on the other hand, may have a different outlook. He wasn't even in the top 100 coming out of high school so I'd be surprised if he was coming in to this season expecting significant minutes as a sophomore.

This has come up a couple of times. The kid grew up in Australia, for heaven's sake, where he seemed to be highly thought of. What the heck was the basis of assigning him any ranking at all? Not arguing, just assuming I am missing something.