2017-18 Minutes Discussion (Post-Duval)

[Kedsy]

Do you know of other recent examples where Duke didn’t have at least 7 players who were either top 25 incoming recruits or had played 500+ minutes the previous season?

First, though this isn't really an answer to your question, let me list recent Duke players with a large jump in minutes between seasons (between freshman and sophomore, unless noted):

2005 Lee Melchionni: 145 to 716 (between sophomore and junior seasons);
2007 Dave McClure: 184 to 716 (note he sat out the year between those two seasons with an injury);
2010 Miles Plumlee: 165 to 654;
2011 Ryan Kelly: 227 to 743;
2012 Tyler Thornton: 337 to 717;
2013 Quinn Cook: 387 to 1208;
2014 Marshall Plumlee: 50 to 254 (redshirt freshman to redshirt soph);
2015 Matt Jones: 235 to 847;
2016 Grayson Allen: 322 to 1317;
2016 Marshall Plumlee: 375 to 1099 (redshirt junior to redshirt senior);


Now, to answer your question:

2000 team had three top 25 freshmen plus three who returned with 500+ minutes for six total -- #26 freshman Mike Dunleavy played 724 minutes;

2002 team had no top 25 freshmen plus four returning 500+ minutemen plus transfer Dahntay Jones for five total -- #29 freshman Daniel Ewing played 636 minutes;

2005 team had one top 25 freshman plus five returning 500+ minutemen for six total -- #121 junior Lee Melchionni played 716 minutes (after 145 the year before);

2007 team had three top 25 freshmen plus three returning 500+ minutemen for six total -- #71 sophomore Dave McClure played 716 minutes (after 184 his previous season) and #28 freshman Jon Scheyer played 1112 minutes;

2011 team had one top 25 freshman plus four returning 475+ minutemen plus transfer Seth Curry for six total -- #14 sophomore Ryan Kelly played 743 minutes (after 227 the year before);

2012 team had one top 25 freshman plus five returning 500+ minutemen for six total -- #144 sophomore Tyler Thornton played 717 minutes (after 337 the year before);

2013 team had two top 25 freshmen plus four returning 500+ minutemen for six total -- #31 sophomore Quinn Cook played 1208 minutes (after 387 the year before);

2014 team had one top 25 freshman plus three returning 500+ minutemen plus redshirt senior Andre Dawkins and transfer Rodney Hood for six total -- #21 sophomore Amile Jefferson played 796 minutes (after 405 the year before);

2015 team had four top 25 freshmen plus three returning 500+ minutemen, but after Rasheed Sulaimon left the team had only six total -- #34 sophomore Matt Jones played 847 minutes (after 235 the year before);

2016 team had four top 25 freshmen plus two returning 500+ minutemen, and after Amile Jefferson got hurt had only five total -- #24 sophomore Grayson Allen played 1317 minutes (after 322 the year before) and #61 redshirt senior Marshall Plumlee played 1099 minutes (after 375 the year before);

I guess the closest analogies are either 2005 or 2007 (maybe 2012 considering your data on Tyler Thornton when Kyrie was active the year before), although the closest personal analogy for Javin DeLaurier might be Miles Plumlee in 2010 or Ryan Kelly in 2011.

[DukieInBrasil]

I think the thing I'm most excited to see is an elite PG-PF combo. From everything we know up to this point, Duval and Bagley could be just as good as Jones/Okafor. If GA can put together a COMPLETE season becoming of a senior captain of his talent, and Gary Trent can hit the ground running and be effective right away on both sides of the floor, then my sense is that by the end of the year we will see all of the bigs other than Bagley will have a defined role well within their abilities to be a championship contender.

Its not too different than the 2014-15 team. The one thing the '15 team had was a lockdown perimeter defender in Cook, which Grayson Allen is not. And a very capable 2nd PG in Cook, which at moments throught that season was huge for us.

Jones/Okafor = Duval/Bagley
Cook/Winslow = Allen/Trent
Amile = Vrank/Javin but < Carter/Bolden

Obviously every season is different, but its always nice to bring up the 2015 team anyway.

I share your enthusiasm for the upcoming season, but i'm gonna pick a couple of nits.
While the Jones/Okafor = Duval/Bagley comparison seems reasonable in broad strokes, each of those 4 is a very different player. Jones could shoot the 3, Duval is a big ? there, while Duval's athleticism is superior. Might not make much of a difference, but it will make a big difference in terms of where on the court they are most effective. Jah was/is a traditional C whereas Bagley appears to be much more versatile, so where on the court they are effective from seems to be different. I'm gonna go ahead and say that Allen > Cook. Maybe Cook is a better back-up PG, but i don't think GA is far behind in that category. Cook improved a lot on D his Sr. year, but calling him lockdown is a bit much, he was quite good though. Winslow was a revelation and i just don't have a good feel for Trent's game, although i can say the same about what i knew about Winslow prior to his only season.
I think the main difference between the 2 teams though is that K has more to work with this year, particularly in the post, as your comparison chart shows.
K will undoubtedly frustrate many of us by not using everything he has at his disposal, but there are many more permutations for him to work his magic with. On paper, this year's squad has more raw talent and less experience, but that 2015 captured some magic right when it needed to. Let's hope this year's team can do the same!

[Dukelogger]

First of all, going into 2015, Quinn Cook was known as anything but a "lockdown perimeter defender." Grayson's defense in his first three years was a fair amount better than Quinn's defense his first three years.

Second, Amile Jefferson going into 2015 had over 1200 Duke minutes under his belt. He was >>> what we can expect from Javin and/or Antonio. How he stacks up with Wendell/Marques remains to be seen.

Third, expecting Gary Trent to perform as a freshman as well as Justise Winslow did is asking to be disappointed.

Having said all that, the 2018 team is probably a little more talented overall than the 2015 team, but lacks the experienced supporting cast that the 2015 team had.

Agreed on Quinn's defense at Duke his first three years, but that's something the coaches clearly told him they expected of him and something he worked on as the coaches and players often referenced this during the tournament and after the championship. But if anything, that gives me more confidence going into this season.

I realized when I put that together that the direct comparison would be flawed, and so I used the combo of Cook and Winslow to compare to the combo of Trent and Allen. Collectively...points, assists, steals, rebounds, and on defense I think its a fairly accurate comparison, no?

[budwom]

Lots of good stuff here. What complicates cogitations for me is that I always thought you had to play D for K to allow you on the court, but Kennard and some others pretty much disabused me of that notion last year.
Yes, he brought lots and lots of other attributes to the team, but frankly I was disappointed that his defensive play (and effort) was not significantly better than it was.

I'm being firm in expecting absolutely nothing this year. I hope for team health, and suspect it will be, if nothing else, a very interesting year.

[Dukelogger]

I share your enthusiasm for the upcoming season, but i'm gonna pick a couple of nits.
While the Jones/Okafor = Duval/Bagley comparison seems reasonable in broad strokes, each of those 4 is a very different player. Jones could shoot the 3, Duval is a big ? there, while Duval's athleticism is superior. Might not make much of a difference, but it will make a big difference in terms of where on the court they are most effective. Jah was/is a traditional C whereas Bagley appears to be much more versatile, so where on the court they are effective from seems to be different. I'm gonna go ahead and say that Allen > Cook. Maybe Cook is a better back-up PG, but i don't think GA is far behind in that category. Cook improved a lot on D his Sr. year, but calling him lockdown is a bit much, he was quite good though. Winslow was a revelation and i just don't have a good feel for Trent's game, although i can say the same about what i knew about Winslow prior to his only season.
I think the main difference between the 2 teams though is that K has more to work with this year, particularly in the post, as your comparison chart shows.
K will undoubtedly frustrate many of us by not using everything he has at his disposal, but there are many more permutations for him to work his magic with. On paper, this year's squad has more raw talent and less experience, but that 2015 captured some magic right when it needed to. Let's hope this year's team can do the same!

This post more accurately portrays what I was trying to say (now that I read this.) Well done and thanks for the assist!

[Dukelogger]

Lots of good stuff here. What complicates cogitations for me is that I always thought you had to play D for K to allow you on the court, but Kennard and some others pretty much disabused me of that notion last year.
Yes, he brought lots and lots of other attributes to the team, but frankly I was disappointed that his defensive play (and effort) was not significantly better than it was.

I'm being firm in expecting absolutely nothing this year. I hope for team health, and suspect it will be, if nothing else, a very interesting year.

I remember watching Dunleavy his sophomore year and thinking the same thing, but he had Shane Battier on the floor with him to basically cover his man and Dunleavy's man. Dunleavy just had a very laid back demeanor too, so in hindsight I may be short-changing him a bit.

[Kedsy]

I realized when I put that together that the direct comparison would be flawed, and so I used the combo of Cook and Winslow to compare to the combo of Trent and Allen. Collectively...points, assists, steals, rebounds, and on defense I think its a fairly accurate comparison, no?

I guess you never know, but I kind of doubt it. Basically, you have two big scorers against a second-PG and a three-and-D guy. Neither Grayson nor Gary project to be anywhere close to Justise on D or close to Quinn as a passer, but both both Grayson and Gary are much better scorers than either Quinn or Justise (though having said that, Gary might not score more than Quinn and/or Justise, because despite his scoring ability Gary might be the fourth or fifth option on offense this season).

Bottom line, I think the dynamic on both offense and defense is going to be very different from what it was in 2015. Other than the name on the front of the jersey and the abundance of talented youth, I don't see a lot the two teams have in common.

[UrinalCake]

Based on the above, it is eminently clear that Marques was ahead of Antonio in the rotation, for pretty much the entire time
Marques was available to play. I'm not sure how you could possibly think otherwise.

It appears that my memory is heavily tainted by different levels of expectations for the two players, as well as an over-reliance on the Wake Forest game as a frame of reference. Bolden did indeed play a lot more than Vrank. Thanks for providing the stats!

[slower]

though having said that, Gary might not score more than Quinn and/or Justise, because despite his scoring ability Gary might be the fourth or fifth option on offense this season.

Trent looks like a very efficient scorer. I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up #2 or #3 in actual PPG.

[Kedsy]

Trent looks like a very efficient scorer. I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up #2 or #3 in actual PPG.

I agree with your second sentence, but not with your first. Sure, he looks efficient when he hits 7 of 7 two-point jumpers. But in real life he's only going to hit 3 of 7. Or worse -- last season, only one Duke player (Luke Kennard) made more than 40% of his two-point jumpers. Gary's shot selection reminds me of Jayson Tatum, whose two-point jumper attempts were 34.8% of his shots, but he only connected on 39.4% of those shots. That's why among our seven top minute-getters, Jayson's eFG% was Duke's 2nd-to-worst (ahead of only Matt Jones, and only a few percentage points ahead at that).

So I don't doubt that Trent two-point jumper attempts will be a fairly common phenomenon this season, but it will likely be our least efficient common phenomenon.

[uh_no]

I agree with your second sentence, but not with your first. Sure, he looks efficient when he hits 7 of 7 two-point jumpers. But in real life he's only going to hit 3 of 7. Or worse -- last season, only one Duke player (Luke Kennard) made more than 40% of his two-point jumpers. Gary's shot selection reminds me of Jayson Tatum, whose two-point jumper attempts were 34.8% of his shots, but he only connected on 39.4% of those shots. That's why among our seven top minute-getters, Jayson's eFG% was Duke's 2nd-to-worst (ahead of only Matt Jones, and only a few percentage points ahead at that).

So I don't doubt that Trent two-point jumper attempts will be a fairly common phenomenon this season, but it will likely be our least efficient common phenomenon.

There's an interesting anecdote about the year the rays went to the world series. One of the reasons the were able to put together such a good team was they realized the rest of the leauge had been undervaluing defense. that meant they could sign defensive players at far better prices than players the numbers indicated they should have signed. The ultimate moral is that value decisions are not made in a vacuum. Tampa succeeded by taking the seemingly less optimal local choice.

In the case of Mr. Trent, if he's getting that shot with ease, it's likely because defense is committing to slow down what are presumably more efficient options...either cramming the lame or pressuring the line. In the same vein that the better baseball players became less valuable because of the high cost the market assigned to them, such more efficient offensive options would be less valuable because the defense is so committed to stopping them. Even though they may be more efficient in the grand scheme of things, in this particular instance, they would be the less efficient solution.

So while I agree that one sholudn't take low % shots just for I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. and giggles, there is a value in taking them if the defensive setup is more severely limiting other options. And it also doesn't mean that every low % shot can be a good one (josh hairston from 18')...just that the math can be shifted just enough by the defense to make it a good shot.

tl;dr: there is some sense behind taking what the defense gives you

[Kedsy]

tl;dr: there is some sense behind taking what the defense gives you

Some sense, yes. I'm not one of those who say midrange shots should never be taken. But if a 40% success rate on such shots is good, that means the shot has (at best) an offensive efficiency of 0.80 points per possession. So if you use it occasionally to "keep the defense honest," allowing you to get better, more efficient shots elsewhere, great. If you take 78% of your shots from there, as Gary did on Friday, then you better make them (as he did), but it'll never be an efficient option.

[proelitedota]

If Wendell is unable to provide the answer we need at the 5 due to lack of experience or some overwhelming weakness, do we roll with Marvin and Javin at the 5 and 4? I have a feeling that'll probably be the lineup come the NCAA tournament time because it adds spacing, rebounding, defense, quickness at the expense of maybe depth, as I don't think we will be playing Bolden much if we have two centers to sub in.

[kAzE]

If Wendell is unable to provide the answer we need at the 5 due to lack of experience or some overwhelming weakness, do we roll with Marvin and Javin at the 5 and 4? I have a feeling that'll probably be the lineup come the NCAA tournament time because it adds spacing, rebounding, defense, quickness at the expense of maybe depth, as I don't think we will be playing Bolden much if we have two centers to sub in.

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Lack of experience is a problem for 80% of our starting lineup, as well as every single player on the team other than 1 guy. I don't see any overwhelming weaknesses in Carter's game to date. He's got excellent size, decent mobility, and is very polished offensively. He's been penciled in as the starter since the day he committed and that has never changed. What glaring holes in his game are you worried about?

[proelitedota]

I'm not sure what you mean by this. Lack of experience is a problem for 80% of our starting lineup, as well as every single player on the team other than 1 guy. I don't see any overwhelming weaknesses in Carter's game to date. He's got excellent size, decent mobility, and is very polished offensively. He's been penciled in as the starter since the day he committed and that has never changed. What glaring holes in his game are you worried about?

You provide good points. I think the main source of "worries" is that Javin is too good to keep on the bench, and we play better as a team with Javin and Bagley as our front court. Depending on your point of view, that's a good problem to have.

[kAzE]

You provide good points. I think the main source of "worries" is that Javin is too good to keep on the bench, and we play better as a team with Javin and Bagley as our front court. Depending on your point of view, that's a good problem to have.

There's a very good chance Javin plays close to starter-level minutes. However, I think he is probably a significant step down in terms of offensive ability when compared to Wendell. It's probably a bigger step down than the defense he adds over Wendell. You can play through Wendell in the post on offense, whereas Javin is probably not going to be touching the ball too often, and his defender is probably helping off of him a fair amount if he's on the perimeter.

At this point, I don't think we've seen enough of either guy to draw any actual conclusions, but Wendell doesn't strike me as a bad defender thus far, which is the only situation that I can think of where Javin could possibly start over him.

[cato]

There's a very good chance Javin plays close to starter-level minutes. However, I think he is probably a significant step down in terms of offensive ability when compared to Wendell. It's probably a bigger step down than the defense he adds over Wendell. You can play through Wendell in the post on offense, whereas Javin is probably not going to be touching the ball too often, and his defender is probably helping off of him a fair amount if he's on the perimeter.

At this point, I don't think we've seen enough of either guy to draw any actual conclusions, but Wendell doesn't strike me as a bad defender thus far, which is the only situation that I can think of where Javin could possibly start over him.

Even if Javin were a signicantly better defender than Carter (which there is no way to know, since neither have played meaningful minutes in meaningful games), his contributions on D would have to significantly outweigh Carter’s superior offense for Javin to beat Carter out. IMO, that is not going to happen. I have not seen any sign of offense from Javin other than being stronger, faster and a better jumper than the other team.

In other words, what you said, but I think you can safely discard the “probably” part.

If Javin threatens one of the big’s minutes, it will be Bolden’s. I suspect he will more likely take minutes from wings. That would certainly require K to go in a somewhat different direction, but it sure seems to me that is where the personnel is going to force K to go.

[DukieInBrasil]

Even if Javin were a signicantly better defender than Carter (which there is no way to know, since neither have played meaningful minutes in meaningful games), his contributions on D would have to significantly outweigh Carter’s superior offense for Javin to beat Carter out. IMO, that is not going to happen. I have not seen any sign of offense from Javin other than being stronger, faster and a better jumper than the other team.

In other words, what you said, but I think you can safely discard the “probably” part.

If Javin threatens one of the big’s minutes, it will be Bolden’s. I suspect he will more likely take minutes from wings. That would certainly require K to go in a somewhat different direction, but it sure seems to me that is where the personnel is going to force K to go.

I saw Javin hit 2 3s in the 2 games so far. Even if he only takes 1 or 2 a game, if he hits 40% of them then teams are going to have to guard him out there, which totally changes the spacing for the rest of the team. That is a way that playing Javin doesn't necessarily have to be about his own offense but about how he affects total team offense. I am not saying that he will hit 40% nor that he will start over Carter. However we have seen something from Javin that we haven't from Wendell, it's too early to say how meaningful those 3s are, but if he continues to hit them his playing time will increase.

[Kedsy]

I saw Javin hit 2 3s in the 2 games so far. Even if he only takes 1 or 2 a game, if he hits 40% of them then teams are going to have to guard him out there, which totally changes the spacing for the rest of the team. That is a way that playing Javin doesn't necessarily have to be about his own offense but about how he affects total team offense. I am not saying that he will hit 40% nor that he will start over Carter. However we have seen something from Javin that we haven't from Wendell, it's too early to say how meaningful those 3s are, but if he continues to hit them his playing time will increase.

Well, except you also saw (or at least you should have seen) Wendell hit two 3s in the two exhibitions so far. In total, Javin is 2 for 3 from three-range and Wendell is 2 for 3 from three-range. In other words, we haven't really seen something from Javin that we haven't seen from Wendell. At least not if the something is three-point shooting.

[kAzE]

Well, except you also saw (or at least you should have seen) Wendell hit two 3s in the two exhibitions so far. In total, Javin is 2 for 3 from three-range and Wendell is 2 for 3 from three-range. In other words, we haven't really seen something from Javin that we haven't seen from Wendell. At least not if the something is three-point shooting.

You know, for how big this team is, I think the big guys probably will have the green light to keep shooting 3s (maybe except Marques), because I think it's going to be necessary for spacing. If Wendell can hit them at a decent percentage, that can really open things up for Marvin down low, and vice versa. And with so many great offensive rebounders, we can afford to have one of them shooting 3s, since we will usually have 2 bigs on the floor.

Big men shooting 3s are all the rage in the NBA right now. I wouldn't be shocked if Wendell and/or Javin attempt 50 to 60 3-pointers this season. I admit, this is kind of a hot take, as our big men (unless you count Tatum as a big) combined for a total of 1 3 point shot last season (Javin went 0 for 1). Amile, Harry, Antonio, Chase, and Marques took no 3 pointers. 30-40 attempts is probably more reasonable.

IMO, Wendell actually seems to have the smoother jumper of the 2.