2017-18 Minutes Discussion (Post-Duval)

[Troublemaker]

Assuming no Bamba (although I would love to be wrong and have to revise this to incorporate him):

	Starters		Rotation		in blowouts
32	Fr Duval				Fr Goldwire
34	Sr Allen	22	Fr Tucker		Fr O'Connell
32	Fr Trent				rSo Robinson
30	Fr Carter	20	* So JMD / So White		So JMD / So White
24	So Bolden	6	Jr Vrankovic

* predicting 1 of DeLaurier or White to get backup PF minutes, but don't know which. (Many think it's Javin easily, but I think Jack will put up a fight)

So, a 7.5 man rotation. JTuck's going to have to be good immediately because he's going to be playing about half the game as the primary perimeter sub. When Trevon rests, Grayson will be the PG. When Marques rests, Wendell will mostly be the C, but I'm also going out on a limb and giving Vrank some 7.5th-man minutes.

[scottdude8]

Assuming no Bamba (although I would love to be wrong and have to revise this to incorporate him):

	Starters		Rotation		in blowouts
32	Fr Duval				Fr Goldwire
34	Sr Allen	22	Fr Tucker		Fr O'Connell
32	Fr Trent				rSo Robinson
30	Fr Carter	20	* So JMD / So White		So JMD / So White
24	So Bolden	6	Jr Vrankovic

* predicting 1 of DeLaurier or White to get backup PF minutes, but don't know which. (Many think it's Javin easily, but I think Jack will put up a fight)

So, a 7.5 man rotation. JTuck's going to have to be good immediately because he's going to be playing about half the game as the primary perimeter sub. When Trevon rests, Grayson will be the PG. When Marques rests, Wendell will mostly be the C, but I'm also going out on a limb and giving Vrank some 7.5th-man minutes.

The key IMHO is developing one or more of Tucker, White, DeLaurier or a surprise into someone who can play 10-15 minutes a game at the 3 off the bench. That'll allow our three starting guards (Duval, Allen, Trent) the rest they need and help with potential foul trouble.

I actually hope Coach K commits to the two big lineup and basically uses a 3 man rotation for the two big man spots with Vrank getting 15-20 minutes a game. I think if he develops as I expect him too we'll have the ability to impose our will down low with that group. The issue will be getting the fourth guy in the rotation for the three guard/wing spots. I think that's more of an unknown/issue going forward than Vrank, but I may be in the minority there.

With today's news and all of the attrition throughout college basketball (the only top 25 teams from last year without debilitating losses that I can think of are MSU and Michigan (assuming Wagner and Wilson return, and it's trending that way)), I think we are a legit title contender if that bench wing player develops. If he doesn't we're going to be biting our nails every game with foul trouble, fatigue, and injuries, but still could contend for the ACC.

[scottdude8]

The key IMHO is developing one or more of Tucker, White, DeLaurier or a surprise into someone who can play 10-15 minutes a game at the 3 off the bench. That'll allow our three starting guards (Duval, Allen, Trent) the rest they need and help with potential foul trouble.

I actually hope Coach K commits to the two big lineup and basically uses a 3 man rotation for the two big man spots with Vrank getting 15-20 minutes a game. I think if he develops as I expect him too we'll have the ability to impose our will down low with that group. The issue will be getting the fourth guy in the rotation for the three guard/wing spots. I think that's more of an unknown/issue going forward than Vrank, but I may be in the minority there.

With today's news and all of the attrition throughout college basketball (the only top 25 teams from last year without debilitating losses that I can think of are MSU and Michigan (assuming Wagner and Wilson return, and it's trending that way)), I think we are a legit title contender if that bench wing player develops. If he doesn't we're going to be biting our nails every game with foul trouble, fatigue, and injuries, but still could contend for the ACC.

To clarify my (minor) differences with Troublemaker's predictions, here's what I'd like to see as the ideal rotation:

Starters: Duval, Allen, Trent, Carter, Bolden

Sixth Man: One or a combo of Tucker/White/DeLaurier plays 10-15 minutes a game at the 3. This allows Duval to take a rest with Allen at PG, and also allow Allen and Trent a rest when a more tradition SF comes in off the bench at one of the wing positions.

Bench Big: Vrank comes in to spell both Bolden and Carter, probably for 10-20 minutes a game depending on the foul situation. So Duke will always have two near 7-foot, true bigs on the floor. This should allows us to dominate the boards, hopefully similarly to what UNC did the past few years.

8th man: Depending on foul trouble or effectiveness, I imagine the Tucker/White/DeLaurier combo gets another 10 minutes or so at the 3 or 4.

The main point I have is this: I don't think Duke has a true "stretch-four" on the roster this year like it has over the past handful. Despite the fact that that has been the trend in college and NBA basketball over the past half a decade, I think it would be a major mistake to try to shoehorn one of those players into our rotation if it doesn't develop. Instead, I hope we stick with a 3 guard, 2 traditional big lineup, going with our strengths, and I think (hope) I've shown that we have the roster to maintain that type of lineup even when the bench is utilized.

UNC (unfortunately) showed last year that you can win with two bigs if you dominate the boards and make penetrating the lane a major pain. I think we have a similar roster, plus a national player of the year contender in Grayson. That's a contender right there.

[bob blue devil]

Assuming no Bamba (although I would love to be wrong and have to revise this to incorporate him):

	Starters		Rotation		in blowouts
32	Fr Duval				Fr Goldwire
34	Sr Allen	22	Fr Tucker		Fr O'Connell
32	Fr Trent				rSo Robinson
30	Fr Carter	20	* So JMD / So White		So JMD / So White
24	So Bolden	6	Jr Vrankovic

* predicting 1 of DeLaurier or White to get backup PF minutes, but don't know which. (Many think it's Javin easily, but I think Jack will put up a fight)

So, a 7.5 man rotation. JTuck's going to have to be good immediately because he's going to be playing about half the game as the primary perimeter sub. When Trevon rests, Grayson will be the PG. When Marques rests, Wendell will mostly be the C, but I'm also going out on a limb and giving Vrank some 7.5th-man minutes.

nice list. i'd take the over on grayson and duval. grayson especially, if he can stay healthy. he played 37 mins his sophomore year. luke played 36 last year. quinn played 36 his sr. year with tyus at 34.

[atoomer0881]

To clarify my (minor) differences with Troublemaker's predictions, here's what I'd like to see as the ideal rotation:

Starters: Duval, Allen, Trent, Carter, Bolden

Sixth Man: One or a combo of Tucker/White/DeLaurier plays 10-15 minutes a game at the 3. This allows Duval to take a rest with Allen at PG, and also allow Allen and Trent a rest when a more tradition SF comes in off the bench at one of the wing positions.

Bench Big: Vrank comes in to spell both Bolden and Carter, probably for 10-20 minutes a game depending on the foul situation. So Duke will always have two near 7-foot, true bigs on the floor. This should allows us to dominate the boards, hopefully similarly to what UNC did the past few years.

8th man: Depending on foul trouble or effectiveness, I imagine the Tucker/White/DeLaurier combo gets another 10 minutes or so at the 3 or 4.

The main point I have is this: I don't think Duke has a true "stretch-four" on the roster this year like it has over the past handful. Despite the fact that that has been the trend in college and NBA basketball over the past half a decade, I think it would be a major mistake to try to shoehorn one of those players into our rotation if it doesn't develop. Instead, I hope we stick with a 3 guard, 2 traditional big lineup, going with our strengths, and I think (hope) I've shown that we have the roster to maintain that type of lineup even when the bench is utilized.

UNC (unfortunately) showed last year that you can win with two bigs if you dominate the boards and make penetrating the lane a major pain. I think we have a similar roster, plus a national player of the year contender in Grayson. That's a contender right there.

very well said. i agree, i think you showed we do have the roster to maintain that 3 guard, 2 traditional big lineup, even when the bench is being utilized. so question is, would you even want Bamba coming, or would you rather we develop Vrank more?

[Kedsy]

I could back up the following with numbers, grids, and charts, but people would just tell me that recruiting rankings aren't everything, so I'll just say it:

(all of the following is based on not having Bamba (though I'm still hoping), and no major injuries (knocking on some hard, dense substance))

The third big will be Javin, not Antonio. Antonio will play nowhere near 15-20 minutes. Without a fair amount of garbage time, he may not even reach Troublemaker's 6 mpg.

The fourth perimeter player will be a competition among Jordan T, Jack, and Alex. The two guys who lose that competition will barely play in competitive games. My vague guess is Jordan T wins that competition, but there's little rational basis for prediction and it won't be decided until after the exhibition games, so there's no real point in guessing now. Whoever it is, though, they won't top 15 mpg, probably closer to 12 mpg.

Also, note that if Jordan T or Alex make the rotation, they would be the very first Duke freshman ranked outside the top 35 to do so in the RSCI era. If Jack makes the rotation, he'll be the first Duke guy outside the top 150 to do so in the same timeframe (not counting Seth Curry, but he was a transfer so that's different). So, no matter who wins the fourth perimeter player competition, it will be a first at Duke in at least the past 20 years.

As others have alluded, I'll be very surprised if Trevon and Grayson don't play 35+ mpg (and if Gary isn't close to that) and if all five starters don't play 30+ mpg (though obviously foul trouble for Wendell and Marques could have a say in that last one).

[whereinthehellami]

Here are some random thoughts on next year's team:

1. I think Duval, Allen, and Carter together will be better than any other 3 players a team can match. Add Trent in that 4 and Duke will be as good as any 4 that a team can match. The issue will be Duke's 5th player. I want it to be Bolden because he fulfills his potential. The thought of him with a couple of inside go-to moves, rebounding, rim protecting, and getting garbage points is exciting. But I'm intrigued by DeLaulier, he might be a better fit with the other 4. An energy guy who rebounds, play defense, and gets garbage points.
   
   
2. I'm really excited to see Carter operate down low and in the mid-range. He is going to be a load and appears to be a very good and willing interior passer. He could make Bolden look really good. I hope the offense goes through Carter. He will require a double and is a good passer. Put Allen on that side and let them work the defense.
   
   
3. I'm also really excited at the thought of Duval penetrating with Bolden and Carter down low, off the blocks and Allen and Trent on the wings. Lots of options and lots of pressure on the defense.

[Saratoga2]

I could back up the following with numbers, grids, and charts, but people would just tell me that recruiting rankings aren't everything, so I'll just say it:

(all of the following is based on not having Bamba (though I'm still hoping), and no major injuries (knocking on some hard, dense substance))

The third big will be Javin, not Antonio. Antonio will play nowhere near 15-20 minutes. Without a fair amount of garbage time, he may not even reach Troublemaker's 6 mpg.

The fourth perimeter player will be a competition among Jordan T, Jack, and Alex. The two guys who lose that competition will barely play in competitive games. My vague guess is Jordan T wins that competition, but there's little rational basis for prediction and it won't be decided until after the exhibition games, so there's no real point in guessing now. Whoever it is, though, they won't top 15 mpg, probably closer to 12 mpg.

Also, note that if Jordan T or Alex make the rotation, they would be the very first Duke freshman ranked outside the top 35 to do so in the RSCI era. If Jack makes the rotation, he'll be the first Duke guy outside the top 150 to do so in the same timeframe (not counting Seth Curry, but he was a transfer so that's different). So, no matter who wins the fourth perimeter player competition, it will be a first at Duke in at least the past 20 years.

As others have alluded, I'll be very surprised if Trevon and Grayson don't play 35+ mpg (and if Gary isn't close to that) and if all five starters don't play 30+ mpg (though obviously foul trouble for Wendell and Marques could have a say in that last one).

I agree with you that Javin is the most likely first big sub in the game. At around 6'9" and 225 pounds with athletic prowess he is plenty big and if he has developed and can stay out of foul trouble he should succeed. Vrank is most likely to get less minutes (6?) but he is still a valuable player on the team.

I believe the 5 starters are as mentioned, barring a pickup ob Bamba. Beyond them, I believe White, O'Connell and Tucker will vie for opportunites to fill in for Trent and Allen. All are between 6'6" and 6'7" and can shoot. Who plays will depend on wheher they can defend. With Allen filling in the PG duties when Duvall sits, there should be some reasonable minutes for those three mentioned above to get some game PT. Goldwire is a wildcard here and a lot will depend on whether he develops or perhaps how quickly he can develop. Don't expect a lot this coming season but sometimes these guys can fool you.

Let us hope that this year isn't fraught with the injury nightmares we exerienced last year.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree with you that Javin is the most likely first big sub in the game. At around 6'9" and 225 pounds with athletic prowess he is plenty big and if he has developed and can stay out of foul trouble he should succeed. Vrank is most likely to get less minutes (6?) but he is still a valuable player on the team.

I believe the 5 starters are as mentioned, barring a pickup ob Bamba. Beyond them, I believe White, O'Connell and Tucker will vie for opportunites to fill in for Trent and Allen. All are between 6'6" and 6'7" and can shoot. Who plays will depend on wheher they can defend. With Allen filling in the PG duties when Duvall sits, there should be some reasonable minutes for those three mentioned above to get some game PT. Goldwire is a wildcard here and a lot will depend on whether he develops or perhaps how quickly he can develop. Don't expect a lot this coming season but sometimes these guys can fool you.

Let us hope that this year isn't fraught with the injury nightmares we exerienced last year.

IMO, what Duke needs is 7 players: 5 starters, a guard/wing back-up and a big man back-up. Coach K is very comfortable with this style. It's what he used in 2015 (MP3 added a little value, not a lot). It's close to what he used in 2010 (two big men back-ups instead of 1).

The good news is that there are candidates for these positions. It's either DeLaurier or Vrank as the big man back up (and my guess - along with is it's DeLaurier. He's higher ranked and can play both the 4/5. This is key because Carter can also play the 4/5 but Bolden can only play the 5).

The question is the backcourt. I have nooooooooo idea who will fill out that spot (and one thing we can agree on is that this will not be by committee. Coach K doesn't do that). They all bring something unique:

White: Sophomore with a year of practice under his belt. Good 3pt shooter. Great size (height and college-ready body). Big question is defense.
Tucker: Excellent 3pt shot. Really good size. Huge question marks about defense and intangibles. Highest rated recruit of the three.
O'Connell: Arguably the most "skilled" with the best handle. Strength is clearly the biggest issue, and he'll likely get pummeled on D.

Unfortunately, our back-up guard/wing will likely not be a strong defender. Let's hope our starting 5 is excellent at D.

[JasonEvans]

I am a bit surprised at how many folks seem to just be writing Alex O'Connell off and assuming Jordan Tucker will be the backup wing. Though Tucker is the higher rated recruit (he's about #40), O'Connell is not that much behind him as about the #60 recruit. Now, if we were talking about a 20-spot difference between a top 10 guy and a top 30 then I could see the discarding of Alex, but the difference in #40 and #60 just isn't that great.

O'Connell and Tucker actually have fairly similar profiles from a skill standpoint -- both are known as very good outside shooters who need to work on their handle. O'Connell is a little bigger and longer, but also really needs to add some strength. O'Connell likely has a little better mid-range game, while Tucker is probably better from 3.

I'm not saying that I am taking Alex over Jordan in this battle for time as the backup wing, I'm just saying I think it is too early for us to even pretend to have a winner in mind... and I think Alex should not be overlooked.

I also think it is very possible Coach K may actually adhere to what he said in his post-season comments about needing to give more time to more players. I hope he will give opportunities to more than just 6 or 7 players to see who is playing well on a game-by-game basis. I may be crazy for saying this, but I truly hope we see 9 or 10 Blue Devils get some kind of playing time every game.

[jipops]

Allen
Duval
Carter
Trent
Bolden
Vrankovic

Six guys, that will be the rotation. We're going to be very thin, especially on the perimeter, but at least we'll have options with size. I actually really like Vrankovic. Reminds me of a more mobile version of Zoubek. If he stays healthy I actually think he can make an impact this season. Allen and Duval should expect to log very heavy minutes.
I suppose it is likely that Javin will get some early season minutes but my bet is he will still be way too limited offensively to make an impact once conference play starts and K will have him riding the pine by then. I'm also betting on guys like Tucker and Goldwire not being ready to contribute at this level quite yet. Their abilities will be realized in later seasons.

This is all mostly guesses based on past performance, K's rotation preferences, and incoming recruit ratings. Once practice begins we may get some buzz about somebody being a pleasant surprise. Tucker, Jack White? Who knows? But right now my money is on a 6-man rotation.

[chriso]

Allen
Duval
Carter
Trent
Bolden
Vrankovic

Six guys, that will be the rotation. We're going to be very thin, especially on the perimeter, but at least we'll have options with size. I actually really like Vrankovic. Reminds me of a more mobile version of Zoubek. If he stays healthy I actually think he can make an impact this season. Allen and Duval should expect to log very heavy minutes.
I suppose it is likely that Javin will get some early season minutes but my bet is he will still be way too limited offensively to make an impact once conference play starts and K will have him riding the pine by then. I'm also betting on guys like Tucker and Goldwire not being ready to contribute at this level quite yet. Their abilities will be realized in later seasons.

This is all mostly guesses based on past performance, K's rotation preferences, and incoming recruit ratings. Once practice begins we may get some buzz about somebody being a pleasant surprise. Tucker, Jack White? Who knows? But right now my money is on a 6-man rotation.

I think (hope) it will be 8. Very excited about Duval. He obviously fills a need and will give us some easy buckets while the youngsters develop, esp. the bigs. Grayson as backup PG. I like Vrank, DeLaurier and White off the bench. I think those 3 will surprise some people. Not sure if the others are ready yet, but they will be in time. O'Connell reminds me of Dunleavy. If he's ready to go from the start look out.

[bob blue devil]

are there any historical precedents for a 6 man rotation - i'm guessing there is, but i don't have a good memory for this stuff. i'm skeptical that is a solution here because coach would probably need 4 guards and 2 bigs to pull that off, whereas our bigger question mark/potential weakness is probably the 4th guard rather than the 3rd big. that said, maybe jdl is athletic enough to guard the 3 and carter is a good enough shooter to spread the floor for some time - i really have no idea. thinking this through, it would also probably be pretty dependent on the personnel of our opponent. i'll leave this for people who know more than i to opine on.

[kAzE]

I'd just like to clear something up with people who are penciling Jordan Tucker in for shooting guard minutes. He is not a guard:

Capture.JPG

He's reportedly 6'7", but this photo of him standing next to Wendell Carter (who is 6'10") suggests he could be even taller (unfortunately, too far away from the wall to use cinderblocks), and he might still still be growing.

I'm hopeful that he could improve his perimeter defense and ball handling enough to be a small forward when needed, but I'm very skeptical that he could get guard minutes, especially as a freshman. He is not particularly quick or explosive, which would make it pretty difficult for him to stay in front of quicker guards.

To me, his long term role would be a combo forward. Ideally, he adds enough strength to become a solid rebounder, so that he can be a full time stretch 4. The bigger he can play, the more valuable he becomes. His shooting ability would allow him to take opposing big men out of the paint area.

[Avvocato]

I agree with Jason above about no overlooking O'Connell. Similarly, I don't know if he will earn rotation minutes this year or not, but he seems to have the skill set to earn some.

While I agree that I hope we go with the two-big man front line, I think DeLaurier will likely need to be an important piece on the defensive end. While we are discussing how our front line can dominate boards, etc., and hopefully it will, defensively, we could have trouble playing teams that have their own stretch 4. Having an athletic guy like Javin may be valuable for us in those spots if such a player is giving us trouble. Assuming he's ready for the minutes, that's why I see Javin playing more minutes than Vrank, since we are playing this guessing game.

[CDu]

are there any historical precedents for a 6 man rotation - i'm guessing there is, but i don't have a good memory for this stuff. i'm skeptical that is a solution here because coach would probably need 4 guards and 2 bigs to pull that off, whereas our bigger question mark/potential weakness is probably the 4th guard rather than the 3rd big. that said, maybe jdl is athletic enough to guard the 3 and carter is a good enough shooter to spread the floor for some time - i really have no idea. thinking this through, it would also probably be pretty dependent on the personnel of our opponent. i'll leave this for people who know more than i to opine on.

At Duke? Yeah. Many of our teams have had 6-man rotations. The 2010 championship team played essentially a 6-man rotation, with the entire bench playing just 17 minutes combined in the title game.

[Duke95]

Allen
Duval
Carter
Trent
Bolden
Vrankovic

Six guys, that will be the rotation. We're going to be very thin, especially on the perimeter, but at least we'll have options with size. I actually really like Vrankovic. Reminds me of a more mobile version of Zoubek. If he stays healthy I actually think he can make an impact this season. Allen and Duval should expect to log very heavy minutes.
I suppose it is likely that Javin will get some early season minutes but my bet is he will still be way too limited offensively to make an impact once conference play starts and K will have him riding the pine by then. I'm also betting on guys like Tucker and Goldwire not being ready to contribute at this level quite yet. Their abilities will be realized in later seasons.

This is all mostly guesses based on past performance, K's rotation preferences, and incoming recruit ratings. Once practice begins we may get some buzz about somebody being a pleasant surprise. Tucker, Jack White? Who knows? But right now my money is on a 6-man rotation.

I expect Delaurier will play quite a bit, as will Jack White. Not expecting much out of anyone else yet.

[DukieInKansas]

I'm going to go out on a limb here - I think there will be 200 minutes each game. There is a chance it will be 225.

Now back to your regularly scheduled off season obsessing. I'll go back to reading about lacrosse.

[Troublemaker]

Allen
Duval
Carter
Trent
Bolden
Vrankovic

Six guys, that will be the rotation.

That's impossible. Even if Coach K's an idiot, you'd have to give him credit for not playing Duval, Allen, and Trent 40 minutes a game. Somebody (most likely Tucker) will play the Andre Dawkins role from 2010, even if it's just 10-15 mpg.

Also, it looks like a mod extracted the post-Duval posts into another thread but didn't lock this thread. So now we have two minutes threads! The more the merrier?

[kAzE]

PG: Duval (32), Allen (8)
SG: Allen (28), Trent (12)
SF: Trent (20), Tucker (14), White (6)
PF: Carter (20), DeLaurier (20)
C: Bolden (28), Carter (12)

This is basically a 7 man rotation, with Jack White in the Bolden role from last year, playing 5-6 minutes a game. If this ends up being the final roster, I feel pretty good about this rotation, and would probably submit this for the minutes contest (barring injuries).

I posted an explanation in the other rotation thread (did we really need 2 threads?) about why I don't think Jordan Tucker will play guard minutes. So if there ends up being an injury to one of our guards (God forbid/knock on wood) or really bad foul trouble in the back court, I think O'Connell would probably be the 4th guard.

This is a really unconventional Coach K team, because we're basically only 3 deep in the back court, with tons of forwards and centers. Kind of like 2010, but instead of a bunch of juniors and seniors with a couple of freshman in the rotation, we have a bunch of freshmen and sophomores with one senior. It now seems like we're setting new precedents for "youngest Duke team ever" pretty much every other year. It's going to be a wild ride . . .