MBB: Will the 17-18 team be better than the 16-17 team?

[ncexnyc]

[QUOTE

Oh boy, I've made some controversial judgments, I'm sure. Will be back to defend them later.

But the basic idea is that the starters should be good, and we'll need some bench guys to come through.[/QUOTE]

Solid breakdown and the two areas that might generate any arguements are Trent vs Jones and Carter vs Jefferson.

Can Trent score enough 3's and play enough quality D to offset Matt's leadership and defensive ability?

Jefferson developed some decent moves around the basket by his final year, but Carter seems to be the total package offensively. As with Matt, the question is does what Carter brings to the table significantly offset what Jefferson gave us?

Leadership is clearly one of those intangibles that are so very hard to place one number on. So we'll just have to wait and see

[Wander]

Not that player-by-player comparisons are all that meaningful, but they ARE fun offseason fodder. So...

	2018 team	<=>	2017 team	Comment
PG	Duval	>>	2017 Allen	PG trueness and PG defense
SG	2018 Allen	>>	Kennard	defense
SF	Trent	>	MJones	the 3 in 3-and-D
PF / C	Carter	>	Jefferson	size/talent
C	2018 Bolden	>>	2017 Giles / Bolden	easily
PF / SF	DeLaurier / White	<<<	Tatum	but only need bench minutes from Javin/Jack
Perimeter Sub	Tucker	<<<	Jackson	Frank could and did start

Oh boy, I've made some controversial judgments, I'm sure. Will be back to defend them later.

But the basic idea is that the starters should be good, and we'll need some bench guys to come through.

You're comparing last year's best or 2nd best player to this season's last guy off the bench. I think a better apples-to-apples comparison is:

Duvall (freshman) > Jones (senior)
Grayson (senior) > Grayson (junior)
Trent (freshman) < Kennard (sophomore)
Carter (freshman) < Tatum (freshman)
Bolden (sophomore) < Jefferson (senior)

So I think last year's starters will be better by a score of 3-2, even with injury stuff factored in.

[whereinthehellami]

You're comparing last year's best or 2nd best player to this season's last guy off the bench. I think a better apples-to-apples comparison is:

Duvall (freshman) > Jones (senior)
Grayson (senior) > Grayson (junior)
Trent (freshman) < Kennard (sophomore)
Carter (freshman) < Tatum (freshman)
Bolden (sophomore) < Jefferson (senior)

So I think last year's starters will be better by a score of 3-2, even with injury stuff factored in.

Duval (freshman) >> Jones (senior)
Grayson (senior) > Grayson (junior)
Trent (freshman) < Kennard (sophomore)
Carter (freshman) = Tatum (freshman)
Bolden (sophomore) < Jefferson (senior)

I'll play. I got Duval as a significant improvement at the PG spot. I think he makes the O smooth.

I liked Tatum but his production, which is replaceable, was not efficient. 45% from 2, 34% from 3, and 2.6 TOPG. Carter might not match the production but i'm hoping he will be more efficient.



and Jefferson would have been a more significant loss if he wasn't hobbled at the end of the year.

So, I got the overall team as slightly better this year than last year but i am hoping that the team plays better together this year. The trip to DR should help that process.

[kAzE]

Duval (freshman) >> Jones (senior)
Grayson (senior) > Grayson (junior)
Trent (freshman) < Kennard (sophomore)
Carter (freshman) = Tatum (freshman)
Bolden (sophomore) < Jefferson (senior)

I would add 2018 bench < 2017 bench.

Frank Jackson is better than anyone who will be coming off the bench in 2018.

[fraggler]

The real consideration, though is if this composition will result in a better team. Will a true point guard, Grayson at his natural position, and a real post presence be better than the glut of wings we had last year?

[Indoor66]

The real consideration, though is if this composition will result in a better team. Will a true point guard, Grayson at his natural position, and a real post presence be better than the glut of wings we had last year?

Bingo! If this team stays healthy it will be better than last year, for that reason alone. Additionally, analysis based on player to player comparison is, IMO, fools gold. We did not see last years team/players at their best due to injury. This years team is tabula rasa. They will fill the slate with their, hopefully, health play.

[CDu]

We will also be helped by the ACC being weaker next year. UNC, Louisville, FSU, and Notre Dame all suffered substantial losses, and most simply didn't recoup their losses. So even if we are only comparable in quality to last year, we should do better.

[dukelifer]

We will also be helped by the ACC being weaker next year. UNC, Louisville, FSU, and Notre Dame all suffered substantial losses, and most simply didn't recoup their losses. So even if we are only comparable in quality to last year, we should do better.

Notre Dame has a strong core- I suspect they will be pretty solid

[rsvman]

We will also be helped by the ACC being weaker next year. UNC, Louisville, FSU, and Notre Dame all suffered substantial losses, and most simply didn't recoup their losses. So even if we are only comparable in quality to last year, we should do better.

Yes, but underlying this and similar threads is the question of whether we'll do better in the NCAA tournament. A better regular season ACC record would be nice, to be sure, but if we don't get to the first weekend of the tournament, the doubts will linger.

[chriso]

Yes, but underlying this and similar threads is the question of whether we'll do better in the NCAA tournament. A better regular season ACC record would be nice, to be sure, but if we don't get to the first weekend of the tournament, the doubts will linger.

I think we lose more games and advance to at least the Sweet 16. Which I would prefer; as NCAA tournament success is really all most people outside the fan bases remember when all is said and done. It depends on how good the freshman are, how the sophs improve, and how healthy we are. We have a lot of question marks, but we have multiple guys who have the chance to step up. I'm excited.

[MarkD83]

Healthy Coach K (2018) > Coach K out with back injury

Senior in control Grayson (2018) > Lost control Grayson

It is amazing the thin line between very good and great. If Grayson is under control vs Elon maybe Duke wins at VT. If Coach K is healthy maybe Duke holds on vs NCSU. That would have put Duke at 13-5 (2nd place in regular season). The ACC tournament victory may have then given Duke a #1 seed etc...

So, I believe the two items above put 2018 over the top. I will also add that a true PG is a game changer (pun intended) for the 2018 Duke team.

[CDu]

Notre Dame has a strong core- I suspect they will be pretty solid

I don't think they will be bad by any means. I just don't think they will be quite as good as last year.

[Kedsy]

I think we lose more games and advance to at least the Sweet 16. Which I would prefer; as NCAA tournament success is really all most people outside the fan bases remember when all is said and done. It depends on how good the freshman are, how the sophs improve, and how healthy we are. We have a lot of question marks, but we have multiple guys who have the chance to step up. I'm excited.

I think there's almost no chance we lose more games and I also think there's almost no chance we don't advance further in the NCAA tournament.

I also think those who say the 2017 team had more talent than the 2018 team will have are correct.

[lotusland]

I think we lose more games and advance to at least the Sweet 16. Which I would prefer; as NCAA tournament success is really all most people outside the fan bases remember when all is said and done. It depends on how good the freshman are, how the sophs improve, and how healthy we are. We have a lot of question marks, but we have multiple guys who have the chance to step up. I'm excited.

I don't know how other folks evaluate success but I wouldn't trade and ACC championship for 1 more win in the NCAA tournament. It would have to be a final Four four for me to be more pleased.

[chriso]

I don't know how other folks evaluate success but I wouldn't trade and ACC championship for 1 more win in the NCAA tournament. It would have to be a final Four four for me to be more pleased.

I see your point. I probably should have said Elite 8 or Final Four. I just hate going out in the first weekend and it bothers me all offseason.

[Edouble]

Yes, but underlying this and similar threads is the question of whether we'll do better in the NCAA tournament. A better regular season ACC record would be nice, to be sure, but if we don't get to the first weekend of the tournament, the doubts will linger.

Do you mean if we don't get through the first weekend of the tournament? I seriously doubt we miss the NCAA tournament.

[drummerdevil]

I picked us improving. Here's why.

Last year's team looked better on paper, sure. We had two to four top ten talents, depending on whose list you use. We also had Grayson, Luke, Amile, Matt, etc. It looked like an unstoppable team. And yet, we didn't make it out of the first weekend.

Why did last year go off the rails? The first reason was all but one player missed at least one game due to injury. The second reason was we missed Coach K sorely for a large portion of the year and never gelled like, dare I say it, the eventual national champions? I hate them with all my heart and soul, but they won and we didn't because they gelled because they had their whole team and their coach all year.

Now, this year, we have almost the same level of talent. We have a senior Grayson with something to prove. We have Duval coming in, and if he's half the player I think he's going to be, he's going to be something special. I would also imagine K, Amile, Matt, and probably several NBA scouts have talked to Bolden about what he needs to do this year to be NBA-ready next year. I see him making sure to do those things as he wants to make it to the NBA. He wanted to go this year but he knew he wasn't ready. So he will be out to prove himself.

I see a lot of good things in Carter. I do think he'll be ready to put in work, and I think he'll be ready to help out this team. Also, if someone like Coach K has said the offense will run through you at a place like Duke, you must be something special. Carter has said this. I think Trent will be ready to contribute, although I actually have Tucker starting over him, as Tucker is the better shooter and K likes having multiple reliable shooters.

Finally, I think that, with K working his magic for the whole season, not just two thirds, and all the people who didn't quite make the rotation last year striving for a spot this year, I honestly think we have better chances of succeeding in the NCAA tournament this year than last year.

Sorry, I kind of went on a rant, and I wrote this quickly so there are probably some things wrong with it. Feel free to correct it. Just my $.01. (It's not worth $.02)

[Ian]

I think the reasonable answer is roughly the same.

Last year's team on paper was much better than this year's. But last year's team ended up finishing on the low end of the spectrum of possible outcomes, probably around the bottom 20 percentile of possible outcomes.. This year's team's 50 percentile will probably be around the same level of performance.

They can obvious do better than that, but they can also do a lot worse too.

I think many of the people who are saying 18 will be better are not really looking at the most likely outcome, but the "if this happens and that happens and everyone is healthy, etc" scenario which if it isn't the best case scenario at least is among the more favorable (ie top 25 percentile) scenarios.

[Troublemaker]

I think the reasonable answer is roughly the same.

Last year's team on paper was much better than this year's. But last year's team ended up finishing on the low end of the spectrum of possible outcomes, probably around the bottom 20 percentile of possible outcomes.. This year's team's 50 percentile will probably be around the same level of performance.

They can obvious do better than that, but they can also do a lot worse too.

I think many of the people who are saying 18 will be better are not really looking at the most likely outcome, but the "if this happens and that happens and everyone is healthy, etc" scenario which if it isn't the best case scenario at least is among the more favorable (ie top 25 percentile) scenarios.

Well, I could just as easily say the people picking '17 are down about how the season went and not thinking clearly about next season. Question: why do all the "way too early" preseason polls (that I linked to in another thread) have Duke as a top-6 team?

That said, I agree with your approach. What we all should be doing is picking the median outcome for Duke and not just assuming that all question marks about the team will be answered positively (or negatively). I just happen to believe the median outcome for the '18 team is a better team than last season's undersized inside and lacking speed/defense on the perimeter team. I also think Coach K '18 will be better than Coach K '17.

We need just one question to be answered positively, imo, to be better next season. Will top-10 freshmen Duval and Carter live up to their rankings like almost all uninjured top-10 freshmen at Duke have done in the past? If so, '18 will be better than '17.

You're comparing last year's best or 2nd best player to this season's last guy off the bench. I think a better apples-to-apples comparison is:

Duvall (freshman) > Jones (senior)
Grayson (senior) > Grayson (junior)
Trent (freshman) < Kennard (sophomore)
Carter (freshman) < Tatum (freshman)
Bolden (sophomore) < Jefferson (senior)

So I think last year's starters will be better by a score of 3-2, even with injury stuff factored in.

I think my schema is more apples to apples than yours because I compare PF/Cs to each other, PF/SFs to each other, etc. I'm taking into account player-types. It's just that next season's team will probably start two bigs while last season's team played smallball, which makes the comparison between the two teams tricky.

Still, even using your schema, I'll take Wendell > Jayson. I think Wendell is special, and we'll see if I'm right.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Still, even using your schema, I'll take Wendell > Jayson. I think Wendell is special, and we'll see if I'm right.

Wow. I thought Jayson was pretty elfing good. If Wendell is better...