Duke NBA Draft stuff

[JasonEvans]

Maybe I missed it, but I don't think I saw a collector thread for Duke NBA draft stuff (especially since Frank sorta, kinda declared). There was a lot of chatter about Harry's draft stock in the NBA playoff thread so there is clearly interest in the topic. Thus I am creating a collector thread where we can chat about it.

So, today NBADraft.net updated their 2017 and 2018 mocks for the first time in a few weeks. A few items of note:

They've got Tatum going 5th. Fox has moved up to #4 in their mock. He had been down around 7, I think. I think the team that takes Tatum at #5 will be quite pleased with what they get.

The next Dukie off the board is Giles at #18. We had been talking about his stock because there were some mocks that had him in the mid-20s, which I found ridiculous for a player with his potential. Anyway, I just can't see how he falls into the 20s unless the medical reports on him are just disastrous.

Kennard checks in at #23. There has been chatter that he could go in the mid-late teens. I think that's a real possibility because shooting is so so so important in the modern NBA. If he is there when my Hawks pick at #19, I hope we grab him. We need the next Kyle Korver.

Things get really interesting when we look at 2018. NBADraft.net does not have Frank in the 2017 draft. They seem confident he will come back to Duke. In fact, they have him as the 8th pick of the 2018 draft... 8th pick of the second round, that is. Overall, Frank is #38 in 2018. At that level, I sorta wonder if he doesn't stay until his junior year. Hmmmm.

Grayson checks in with a late first round grade for 2018. Allen is the 27th pick of the 2018 draft.

I know a lot of folks seem to think Gary Trent will be at Duke for more than one year, but NBADraft.net has him going with the #7 pick in 2018. Wendell Carter is #12. Potential future Dukies Kevin Knox (#11) and Trevon Duval (#21) are both mid-first rounders. Mo Bamba is #2 (but is seen as unlikely to come to Duke). Meanwhile, Marques Bolden is nowhere to be found... 2019 for him?

-Jason "in the realm of absurdly early, these 2018 projects rank pretty high up on the ridiculous scale... sorry for even mentioning them" Evans

[JasonEvans]

DraftExpress just did an extensive breakdown of the strengths and weaknesses of Harry Giles' game. It is worth a read.

Regardless of whether or not his athleticism reverts back to what it once was, Giles has outstanding measurements that should allow him to play the center position with ease if he can find a way to put more bulk on his promising frame. Even without the same quick-twitch and powerful explosiveness that he showcased early on in his career, he's still an agile athlete who is light on his feet and mobile running the floor. There is a distinct possibility that he'll be able to shed the rust he was noticeably saddled with at Duke, and undoubtedly caused him to lose a step, which would elevate him into a different tier of prospect.

his footwork is poor, his ball-handling skills rudimentary, and basketball IQ is not where it needs to be at this stage. Giles plays the game very sped up and struggles to make decisions with the ball in his hands, relegating him strictly to the center position in today's NBA. He doesn't look like someone that is going to be doing much playmaking, as he's not a great passer, he lacks a high skill-level in the post, and doesn't look comfortable facing the basket, with a mechanical stroke that causes defenses to completely sag off him outside of ten feet.

-Jason "Portland, with 3 first rounders, could be a good candidate to take Harry as they will get other assets out of this draft and can wait for him to get more healthy... I see lots of D-League in Harry's 2017-18 future" Evans

[MChambers]

Jason, the second paragraph you excepted pretty well captures my concerns about Harry's game. I just don't see the skill level, especially the shooting, and his defensive awareness was completely lacking. I don't know to what degree those weaknesses can be attributed to rust. Accordingly, I'm pretty skeptical about Harry's ability to be a top level player again, and I don't think I'd take him before pick #20 or so.

[Furniture]

Tweet from Luke. Working hard with Amile and others in California (Jordan Bell, Donovan Mitchell, John Collins, and Tyler Roberson).

Looks like this kid is still a Dukie. He's working hard too.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BTpO1OiF...gdhi8H5DyR-I0/

[duke4ever19]

Tweet from Luke. Working hard with Amile and others in California (Jordan Bell, Donovan Mitchell, John Collins, and Tyler Roberson).

Looks like this kid is still a Dukie. He's working hard too.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BTpO1OiF...gdhi8H5DyR-I0/

Why is John Collins flipping me off? What did I ever do to him?

Edit: It looks like he's making the "peace" sign, but his index finger didn't quite get lined up in time.

[JasonEvans]

Tweet from Luke. Working hard with Amile and others in California (Jordan Bell, Donovan Mitchell, John Collins, and Tyler Roberson).

Speaking of John Collins, I notice he has been moving up a bit in the mocks. He was mid-late 20s for a while and now seems to be in the mid-teens perhaps even the back of the lottery. He may have been the most skilled big man in the country last year. Of course, the way he scores is not something the NBA seems to value any more so that may really limit his draft stock.

Looks like this kid is still a Dukie. He's working hard too. https://www.instagram.com/p/BTpO1OiF...gdhi8H5DyR-I0/

Really intrigued with Rasheed prominently wearing a Duke T-shirt in that video. Clearly there is no lasting animosity to the program. Must be tearing Maryland fans apart to see that.

Rasheed played in the DLeague last year. He had a pretty strong second half of the season, averaging 17.1ppg, 4.2 rpg, and 4.0apg in the 14 games after the All-star break. If he really is working hard and improving his game, he could find his way to the NBA this coming season.

-Jason "once a Dukie, always a Dukie" Evans

[Ichabod Drain]

Jason, the second paragraph you excepted pretty well captures my concerns about Harry's game. I just don't see the skill level, especially the shooting, and his defensive awareness was completely lacking. I don't know to what degree those weaknesses can be attributed to rust. Accordingly, I'm pretty skeptical about Harry's ability to be a top level player again, and I don't think I'd take him before pick #20 or so.

Harry missed two full seasons of high school basketball. He missed the pre-season and first eleven games of his only college season. He had two major knee surgeries and one minor operation before he set foot in a college game. I'm not sure what people expected to see from him this year but I can't imagine any player looking good after that.

That said I think Harry still has the potential to be a high level contributor in the NBA. Any team that drafts him should plan on taking it slow and giving him ample time to catch up, get comfortable and stronger.

[Indoor66]

Harry missed two full seasons of high school basketball. He missed the pre-season and first eleven games of his only college season. He had two major knee surgeries and one minor operation before he set foot in a college game. I'm not sure what people expected to see from him this year but I can't imagine any player looking good after that.

That said I think Harry still has the potential to be a high level contributor in the NBA. Any team that drafts him should plan on taking it slow and giving him ample time to catch up, get comfortable and stronger.

That is a whole lot of faith in the performance of a 10th grader...

[Ichabod Drain]

That is a whole lot of faith in the performance of a 10th grader...

11th grader

[MChambers]

11th grader

Plus some serious international play.

[Billy Dat]

Sam Vecenie on Kennard
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/articl...f-luke-kennard

[MarkD83]

Every year we see more players signed up for the draft than their are available slots in the draft. In addition all of these players are being told they are sure draft picks.

At some point when will the players realize that NBA GMs want more players available than they really need because it makes business sense. Lots of players means a GM for a team above you in the draft is more inclined to make a poor choice so that you can get the player you want.

Even if there is a draft camp to assess players skills, the GMs are only going to be partially honest with the players. They want as many players in the draft as possible and are certainly NOT looking out for the players best interest.

That being said I think all undergraduates should sign up for the draft and put the pressure on the GMs to actually give honest views of everyone's chances.

[Olympic Fan]

11th grader

Yeah, Harry missed his sophomore and seniors year in high school. As a junior, he was universally acclaimed as the best player in a class that included Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Dennis Smith, Josh Jackson and Todd Bridges. The summer after his junior year in high school he played on the USA 19-and-under team -- he was the youngest player on the team ... and maybe the best (Jalen Brunson of Villanova edged Giles for tourney MVP). He led the team in scoring (14.6 ppg) and rebounding (10.4 reb), leading it to the world championship.

THAT is the Harry Giles who was almost universally projected as the No. 1 pick in the 2017 class.

Giles suffered his second ACL that fall (2015). Obviously we never got to see that Harry. The question how if will be every regain the skills that had people comparing him to Chris Webber (I think Danny Manning was a better comp)? He bounced back from his first ACL and made himself the No. 1 player in the class again, barely a year after the injury. He has not bounced back from his second ACL so quickly. But if he does ...

I keep explaining the NBA draft dilemma, which is based on the way the league works. The thing is, the easiest thing to find in the NBA is another good player. The developmental league is loaded with guys who would knock your eyes out. 80 percent of the players in the NBA are basically interchangeable as far as talent goes.

The hardest thing for an NBA team to find is a great player. Those are literally worth their weight in gold.

How does that relate to the draft? It's simple, there are 5-8-10 players every year that project as better than the standard NBA player -- maybe not great, but an upgrade to what they are replacing. And maybe 1-2 have potential to be great. But beyond that upper crust, you are just loading up more standard NBA players (and you have to pay them a lot).

When you get past the crust ... why not gamble on somebody like Giles? The odds may be 1 in 5 that he regains the skills that made him a potentially great player. But those are better odds than, say, Justin Jackson emerging as an NBA all-star. I doubt anybody wastes a top 5 or even top 10 pick on the gamble, but unless the doctors who examine him raise some major red flags, I expect to see him go in the teens ... and maybe fairly early in the teens.

PS One other word of caution -- don't take the mock drafts too seriously. Jonathan Givony, the guy who runs Draft Express (the best of the mocks) is nothing but a fan. He set up his webside in 2003 and he follows the daft with passion, but he's not an insider with connections. Not to rip the site -- it offers a good overview of the draft, but don't take specific rankings too seriously.

PPS And, Mark, it's not the NBA GMs who are lying to the kinds ... the false promises almost always come from agents (or wannabe agents). Plus, the kids themselves are often delusional.

[English]

Sam Vecenie on Kennard
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/articl...f-luke-kennard

Thoroughly enjoyable--and honest, from my read--breakdown by Vecenie. Pretty funny that, after warning off biases like comparing players with similar skin color, Sam then compares players with similar, um, undergraduate pedigree...Vecenie cites that Luke's best, most recent comp is Duke's own Rodney Hood. Not a bad comp, for sure, but funny to me nonetheless.

[CDu]

Every year we see more players signed up for the draft than their are available slots in the draft. In addition all of these players are being told they are sure draft picks.

At some point when will the players realize that NBA GMs want more players available than they really need because it makes business sense. Lots of players means a GM for a team above you in the draft is more inclined to make a poor choice so that you can get the player you want.

Even if there is a draft camp to assess players skills, the GMs are only going to be partially honest with the players. They want as many players in the draft as possible and are certainly NOT looking out for the players best interest.

That being said I think all undergraduates should sign up for the draft and put the pressure on the GMs to actually give honest views of everyone's chances.

Not all players entering the draft are doing so because of a guarantee. In fact, there are very few guarantees given in any particular year. But that doesn't stop guys from dreaming, and it doesn't stop hangers-on from getting in the ears of guys to encourage their dreaming.

As for the teams, I think they'd actually prefer FEWER early entries. The more a kid plays in college, the better a team is able to assess said kid. And the better they are able to assess said kid, the less risky their draft picks will be. Also, the longer a kid is in college, the less time a team is wasting on physical development under NBA contract.

Early entry is in the player's interest. Delayed entry is in the teams' interest.

[bob blue devil]

The hardest thing for an NBA team to find is a great player. Those are literally worth their weight in gold.

"literally"?

Fact checking time! Avg NBA player weight = 247 pounds. Value of gold = $1241 per ounce. Ounces per pound = 16. 247x1241x16 = $4,904,432 = typical nba player's weight worth in gold. I guess the question remains with respect to how much a star player is worth to the team (after paying him), but $5 mil seems really conservative given the context of getting the player via the draft.

conclusion - agreed!

[Billy Dat]

PS One other word of caution -- don't take the mock drafts too seriously. Jonathan Givony, the guy who runs Draft Express (the best of the mocks) is nothing but a fan. He set up his webside in 2003 and he follows the daft with passion, but he's not an insider with connections. Not to rip the site -- it offers a good overview of the draft, but don't take specific rankings too seriously.

That may have been true when he started out in 2003, but he now is part of "The Vertical" on Yahoo and I am guessing he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections that drive his mocks. The fact that ESPN fired Chad Ford, and the Vertical and Givony are being brought in, tells me that he is a pretty respected and sourced journalist at this point.

[UrinalCake]

Anyway, I just can't see how [Giles] falls into the 20s unless the medical reports on him are just disastrous.

I don't think the medical reports have to be disastrous for him to fall. If they're anything less than perfect, then teams have a reason to be scared away from him. He's a 19 year old kid who has had two major knee surgeries and one minor one. Why waste a pick on him when there are so many other really good players in this draft who also have a ton of upside but do NOT have the same injury history?

I'm very surprised by the 2018 projections, though as you say it is so early that they don't mean a whole lot. I would have expected Frank to be higher than 38. Grayson at 27 sounds about right as of now; I think with a solid season in which he shows his sophomore year form he could climb into the teens. Trent at #7 sounds insanely high from what I've read about him. I've been envisioning him as a multi-year guy who may not have the athleticism required for the next level. And Duval at 21 sounds way low. My take on him was that he was a sure-fire OAD and probable top-5 pick.

[Olympic Fan]

That may have been true when he started out in 2003, but he now is part of "The Vertical" on Yahoo and I am guessing he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections that drive his mocks. The fact that ESPN fired Chad Ford, and the Vertical and Givony are being brought in, tells me that he is a pretty respected and sourced journalist at this point.

Let me get this straight ... you're citing ESPN as an endorsement of Givony's journalistic credentials?

The same ESPN that just dumped every journalist on its payroll and kept all the shills and the showmen?

And you think that "he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections"? Like those people are always upfront and honest about their draft evaluations ... yeah, they share their information with a guy who runs a free webside.

You can believe what you want, but Draft Express has about as much credibility as Joe Lunardi's Bracketology. The closer we get to the draft, the more accurate it becomes (how can anybody project the top picks today, when we don't even know the lottery order?). That doesn't mean it is dispensing inside information.

Let's agree to an experiment. Let's take a snapshot of Draft Express today ... and another on draft day. Then we compare with the actual draft.

[curtis325]

That may have been true when he started out in 2003, but he now is part of "The Vertical" on Yahoo and I am guessing he has plenty of agent and NBA front office connections that drive his mocks. The fact that ESPN fired Chad Ford, and the Vertical and Givony are being brought in, tells me that he is a pretty respected and sourced journalist at this point.

Did you really put those bolded words in the same sentence?