View Poll Results: What will be the top 5 films at the boxoffice this summer?

Voters
54. You may not vote on this poll
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (May 5)

    53 98.15%
  • Alien Covenant (May 19)

    1 1.85%
  • Baywatch (May 26)

    5 9.26%
  • Pirates of the Carib 5 (May 26)

    8 14.81%
  • Wonder Woman (June 2)

    34 62.96%
  • Captain Underpants (June 2)

    3 5.56%
  • The Mummy (June 9)

    2 3.70%
  • Cars 3 (June 16)

    21 38.89%
  • Transformers: Last Knight (June 23)

    18 33.33%
  • Despicable Me 3 (June 30)

    48 88.89%
  • Spider-man Homecoming (July 7)

    44 81.48%
  • War of the Planet of the Apes (July 14)

    6 11.11%
  • Dunkirk (July 21)

    13 24.07%
  • The Dark Tower (August 4)

    2 3.70%
  • Field (all other films)

    8 14.81%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 21 to 40 of 518
  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I have faith in Luc Besson and really want to see Valerian. It will not surprise me if a few million other people want to watch as well.
    Just so you are aware, the average movie ticket price in America is just a hair under $9. But, seeing as we are talking about a big budget sci-fi film that many will see in 3D and which figures to draw a lot of business early in the release cycle (before tickets start getting discounted) let's be very, very generous and say every ticket to Valerian will be sold at $11 each.

    If "a few million" people see the film that would result in a boxoffice of: 3,000,000 x $11 = $33 million. To have a shot at our contest, you would need at least 19 million people to see the film. It is worth noting that the Valerian comics have sold 10 million copies around the globe, which is a great head start to drawing in that audience.

    Luc Besson got more than $200 million bucks to make this flick. While I am sure the backers are expecting huge business overseas (Valerian is a French comic and is better known in Europe than the US and Besson is a bigger name overseas as well), they will surely push the marketing and expect to make well over $100 mil from the US audience.

    Put another way, if I was picking "field" it would be because I thought Valerian had a real shot at cracking the top 5. Luc Besson has had big success in the sci fi arena before with Fifth Element and especially Lucy. This is not a bad pick at all, though the first ads and trailers have been long on flashy images and done little to explain the story, which could be a problem here.

    -Jason "if this was Top 5 movies of summer in France, this would be a mortal lock and could actually be the #1 movie of the year in that country" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  2. #22
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    If "a few million" people see the film that would result in a boxoffice of: 3,000,000 x $11 = $33 million. To have a shot at our contest, you would need at least 19 million people to see the film.
    You are way too literal, lol. Consider "a few million" as my way of also saying a bajillion. They are interchangeable in my vocabulary. As I stated in the other thread, "Fifth Element", one of my fav movies (and one that I saw in the theaters), and has since become a cult classic, was not a box office success, at least not enough to be considered a mega block buster. (And it even got a Super Bowl ad.). I think the same thing may happen here, but it is also one that wouldn't surprise me if it exploded.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #23
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    Good gosh that was tough. Only really felt comfortable selecting Guardians
    "The greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge" -Stephen Hawking

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Two heroes (not heroines), two toons, and an unlisted. (Will state that had it been, I would have voted Valerian.)

    I tend to agree with Reddevil on Dunkirk. It will be a great movie, but not in the top 5. With the political climate on the literal teetering point, I'm not sure a war movie is going to wet everyone's appetite for popcorn.
    My hardest choice was going with Cars 3. (But it is Pixar, and someone at that studio is looking for redemption in the series, plus kids don't care that the first was meh and the second sucked.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #25
    I'm curious if any of the summer films will catch BATB which looks like it will hit $475 million + here in the US.

  6. #26

    top 5

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    You know how it works... you vote for the 5 (not 4, not 6) movies in the poll that you think will make the most money at the domestic boxoffice this summer. You can vote for any film that opens in May, June, July, or August. The contest will end as soon as it is clear that no more eligible films have a chance to make it into the top 5, probably some time in September.

    One small change this year... instead of "other" we will have a choice of "field" which will be any film not already listed in the poll. If you think there is some darkhorse contender out there, you don't need to name it to get credit for picking it. Does that make sense?

    The poll will close in exactly 2 weeks, on May 1.

    Here are the eligible films, sorted by release date.

    Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (May 5)
    Alien Covenant (May 19)
    Baywatch (May 26)
    Pirates of the Carib 5 (May 26)
    Wonder Woman (June 2)
    Captain Underpants (June 2)
    The Mummy (June 9)
    Cars 3 (June 16)
    Transformers: Last Knight (June 23)
    Despicable Me 3 (June 30)
    Spider-man Homecoming (July 7)
    War of the Planet of the Apes (July 14)
    Dunkirk (July 21)
    The Dark Town (August 4)

    Feel free to post your picks and explain why you chose them.

    -Jason "any questions?" Evans
    Alien (please be good), Spider Man, Baywatch(ugh), Cars 3, Minions. In no order. Personally, I'm excited for fall, when "It" and Blade Runner 2049 come out. And Dunkirk looks super, but I'll probably catch that at home.

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    I'm curious if any of the summer films will catch BATB which looks like it will hit $475 million + here in the US.
    Guardians will catch it on the first day.
    Quote Originally Posted by chriso View Post
    Alien (please be good), Spider Man, Baywatch(ugh), Cars 3, Minions. In no order. Personally, I'm excited for fall, when "It" and Blade Runner 2049 come out. And Dunkirk looks super, but I'll probably catch that at home.
    I vote you for the bravest person in the history of this poll. (See above reply to Ymo.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Projections from the Hollywood Stock Exchange (use for comparative value, etc.)

    $371.29 Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
    $249.55 Wonder Woman
    $246.17 Spider-Man: Homecoming
    $239.19 Despicable Me 3
    $176.35 Transformers: The Last Knight
    $169.33 Cars 3
    $155.43 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
    $140.44 War for the Planet of the Apes
    $138.06 The Mummy
    $126.48 Dunkirk
    $105.33 Alien: Covenant
    $103.40 Baywatch
    $100.93 The Dark Tower
    $78.77 Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie

    $80.14 The Emoji Movie
    $72.59 Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets
    $64.86 Rough Night
    $59.44 King Arthur: Legend of the Sword
    $59.06 Annabelle: Creation
    $51.62 The House
    $51.61 The Hitman's Bodyguard
    $47.80 Atomic Blonde
    $45.03 All Eyez on Me
    $43.70 Girls Trip
    $40.87 Snatched

  9. #29

    Oops

    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Guardians will catch it on the first day.

    I vote you for the bravest person in the history of this poll. (See above reply to Ymo.)
    Hahaha. Totally forgot about Guardians. Top 5 for sure. Baywatch looks horrible but could be a big hit. People keep seeing Fast and the Furious movies but I have no clue why. This seems like the same crowd.

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by chriso View Post
    Alien (please be good), Spider Man, Baywatch(ugh), Cars 3, Minions. In no order. Personally, I'm excited for fall, when "It" and Blade Runner 2049 come out. And Dunkirk looks super, but I'll probably catch that at home.
    I hope Alien is great, but doubt that even if it is epic it makes a dent in the contest.

  11. #31

    Alien

    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I hope Alien is great, but doubt that even if it is epic it makes a dent in the contest.
    I'm possibly the world's biggest Alien/Aliens fan (2nd only to Star Wars) so my opinion may be SLIGHTLY biased.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by chriso View Post
    I'm possibly the world's biggest Alien/Aliens fan (2nd only to Star Wars) so my opinion may be SLIGHTLY biased.
    I love the franchise. I am also one of six people who liked Prometheus. I just think that even a true classic "Alien" movie doesn't drive droves to the box office like The Fate of the Furious.

    And I am fine with that.

  13. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I hope Alien is great, but doubt that even if it is epic it makes a dent in the contest.
    Just for the sake of argument...

    If you inflation adjust the two epic/groundbreaking films in the series you get some darn impressive results. Alien (1979) made $78.9 mil when it came out. Aliens (1986) made $85.1 million. Using ticket price inflation adjusters (1979 - 3.58, 1986 - 2.56) gives us the following boxoffice totals for these two films:

    Alien - $282.5 million
    Aliens - $217.9 million

    Both of those would be right in there in a top 5 contest. If Covenant is as good as either of those films, I think there is a non-zero chance it will be a player in our contest... but that is a pretty big "if."

    -Jason "I'm not voting for it... betting on a film to be legendarily good is not a strong bet. And, for the record, I liked Prometheus a lot" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  14. #34
    I will say this...nothing makes me smile more than to see "The Smurfs: The Lost Village" tanking at the box office. Each movie has seen a massive decline in revenue and this one appears to be no exception. I stand by my opinion that Gargamel and Azreal are two of the most misunderstood heroes out there.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I love the franchise. I am also one of six people who liked Prometheus. I just think that even a true classic "Alien" movie doesn't drive droves to the box office like The Fate of the Furious.

    And I am fine with that.
    I think the biggest problem is Aliens 3, Ressurection and Prometheus. None of them were "bad" movies, but to fans of the first two (widly different movies) they've used up a lot of good will.

    Aliens is the first movie I saw that kept me up all night long jumping at shadows (and waiting for my dad to bust into my room to scare me...never happened). It was just short of awesome to my 12 year old self. Couldn't be bothered to watch Prometheus. I guess I want to know more about the series, but it's kinda like Transformers at this point...they keep tying the story up into more and more knots and ruining my memories, I just don't quite have the heart for it any longer.

    It will have to get some hellagood word of mouth the first weekend in order to be a contender, imo.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    I'm curious if any of the summer films will catch BATB which looks like it will hit $475 million + here in the US.
    How about those folks at Disney. They take animated classics and remake them with live actors and make HUGE bank. Who knew? I fully expect a live-action Frozen in the next few years.

    -Jason "I look forward to seeing Adele Dazeem perform in real life " Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Just for the sake of argument...

    If you inflation adjust the two epic/groundbreaking films in the series you get some darn impressive results. Alien (1979) made $78.9 mil when it came out. Aliens (1986) made $85.1 million. Using ticket price inflation adjusters (1979 - 3.58, 1986 - 2.56) gives us the following boxoffice totals for these two films:

    Alien - $282.5 million
    Aliens - $217.9 million

    Both of those would be right in there in a top 5 contest. If Covenant is as good as either of those films, I think there is a non-zero chance it will be a player in our contest... but that is a pretty big "if."

    -Jason "I'm not voting for it... betting on a film to be legendarily good is not a strong bet. And, for the record, I liked Prometheus a lot" Evans
    I would love to be wrong. "Alien" is one of my top five movies of all time, and I feel it doesn't get its due. I understand the appeal of "Aliens," but it was so dramatically different, I feel people forget what a dark and scary thriller the original was.

    Lots of movies do not age very well, but "Alien," and "Jaws" are two outliers in my book.

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I will say this...nothing makes me smile more than to see "The Smurfs: The Lost Village" tanking at the box office. Each movie has seen a massive decline in revenue and this one appears to be no exception. I stand by my opinion that Gargamel and Azreal are two of the most misunderstood heroes out there.
    They're making a movie about the evil cheating group down the road? I guess the village in question had the only classrooms?

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by DU82 View Post
    They're making a movie about the evil cheating group down the road? I guess the village in question had the only classrooms?
    Actually, the script NEVER mentioned classrooms.

  20. #40

    :)

    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I would love to be wrong. "Alien" is one of my top five movies of all time, and I feel it doesn't get its due. I understand the appeal of "Aliens," but it was so dramatically different, I feel people forget what a dark and scary thriller the original was.

    Lots of movies do not age very well, but "Alien," and "Jaws" are two outliers in my book.
    My two favorite thrillers ever. Great minds think alike. How many films have unsuccessfully tried to duplicate these formulas? Aliens is equally perfect; but it's an action movie.
    Last edited by chriso; 04-24-2017 at 08:25 PM.

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