Top Movies of Summer 2017

[Olympic Fan]

Won't that be balanced by the sale of senior tickets?

As good as the movie might be, I just don't see a WWII movie connecting with the younger demographic - critical for a top 5 movie.

I was clicking around earlier tonight and I came across Saving Private Ryan and I was thinking how the success of that movie will reflect on Dunkirk.

Easy to forget that Saving Private Ryan was the No. 1 domestic box office movie of 1998. It's $216 domestic gross would be the equivalent of $404 million today.

That one did a pretty good job of connecting with a younger demographic.

That said, Saving Private Ryan does have some significant advantages:

(1) It's about American soldiers performing in a great Allied victory ... Dunkirk is about British soldiers (and civilians) performing in a defeat (even Churchill warned against ascribing the aspects of victory to what was a desperate retreat).

(2) It was directed by Stephen Spielberg, who is a bigger box office guarantee than Christopher Nolan ... at least in 1998, his track record was better than Nolan's is now.

(3) It was headlined by two stars -- Tim Hanks and Matt Damon -- who had a better box office track record than Dunkirk stars Tom Hardy and Harry Styles (Note: Damon was actually not promoted as part of the Private Ryan cast, but his presence didn't stay secret very long.

(4) We KNOW Private Ryan was a great movie -- probably the best WWII movie made since 1950 at least (92 percent on Rotten Tomatoes; 95 percent audience ratings). We can only hope Dunkirk is that well done.

I didn't vote for Dunkirk for our contest, but I think it stands a reasonable chance of topping $200 million and finishing in our top five. I kind of hope it does, even if it costs me a 5-for-5 finish. I would love to see another great WWII movie -- and to top $200, Dunkirk would almost have to be a great movie.

[cato]

It was directed by Stephen Spielberg, who is a bigger box office guarantee than Christopher Nolan ... at least in 1998, his track record was better than Nolan's is now.

Huh. Is that right? Christopher Nolan's track record seems pretty spotless right now.

[NashvilleDevil]

Huh. Is that right? Christopher Nolan's track record seems pretty spotless right now.

I agree. Spielberg did direct 1941 which is horrible and Temple Of Doom which was a box office success but not a worthy follow up to Raiders.

[CameronBornAndBred]

(3) It was headlined by two stars -- Tim Hanks and Matt Damon --

Unfortunately, Tim caved to the pressures of Hollywood and fell down a deep hole of drugs, thus ending a promising career. His brother smartly stayed on a healthier path, and has done pretty well for himself.

[Olympic Fan]

I agree. Spielberg did direct 1941 which is horrible and Temple Of Doom which was a box office success but not a worthy follow up to Raiders.

Yes, Spielberg did have some clunkers -- not so much 1941 as Empire of the Sun and Hook ... And Temple of Doom WAS a lousy followup to Raiders -- but it made $479 million domestically -- and I thought the point of this exercise was box office success, not our critical judgments.

Of course, Nolan has had his clunkers too -- Momento made just $39 million in adjusted domestic dollars (less than any of Spielberg's clunkers) and The Prestige made $71 million in adjusted dollars -- $40 million LESS than 1941. Insomnia barely topped $100 million (also less than 1941)

But when you look at the top end for both directors, that's where Speilberg has the clearcut edge (al; in adjusted dollars):

Leading up to Private Ryan, Speilberg had directed:

ET ($1.2 BILLION)
Jaws ($1.1 BILLION)
Jurassic Park ($812 million)
Raiders of the Lost Ark ($782 million)
Close Encounters of the Third Kind ($491 million)
Temple of Doom ($479 million)
Lost World ($441 million)
Last Crusade ($436 million)

Nolan has had two mega-hits:

The Dark Knight ($658 million)
The Dark Knight Rises ($509 million)
Plus:
Inception ($325 million)
Batman Begins ($284 million)
Intersteller $200 million

That's a good track record, but Speilberg beats it by a mile -- he produced four films that were significantly higher box office than Nolan's best. Private Ryan (at $404 million) was his 11th $200-million plus film. If Dunkirk tops $200 million, it will be Nolan's sixth $200 million film.

As I said, Nolan has a good track record, but it doesn't compare to Speilberg's box office success before Private Ryan.

[Olympic Fan]

To go back to BD80's point -- that it's hard to see a WWII film connecting with a young audience (which, I agree, must happen to push the film past $200 million) -- I found a Box office mojo list of World War II themed films since 1980. They list 77 films.

Of that list, just three would be contenders in our list: Saving Private Ryan ($404 million), Michael Bay's awful Pearl Harbor ($310 million) and the magnificent Schindler's List ($203 million).

The next film on the list is not really a WWII movie -- Captain America ($176 million unadjusted). Next on the list is Inglorious Basterds ($142 million adjusted). Unbroken made $115 million.

That leaves 71 WWII films since 1980 that have failed to reach $100 million.

That includes some darn good WWII films -- Fuller's The Big Red One, Memphis Belle, Hacksaw Ridge, Das Boot, Flags of Our Fathers, Enemy at the Gates, The Imitation Game, Life is Beautiful. Plus some heavily promoted blockbusters -- Australia, Allied, U-571, Fury, The Thin Red Line. Red Tails, Monuments Men.

I guess my point is that BD80 is on to something. There are only a handful of WWII films over the last 37 years that have connected with the younger audience. There is a chance -- and Nolan may do it -- but the odds seem to be against Dunkirk.

[brevity]

Results!

The 5 Biggest Films of the Summer (so far)

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $380,213,327
2. Wonder Woman $318,380,158
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $160,004,326
4. Cars 3 $99,882,893
5. Alien: Covenant $73,328,461

Alien: Covenant enjoys yet another week in the Top 5, but I suspect it will finally drop out next time. Cars 3 should overtake it, and Transformers may roll out past both.

Wrong! After 5 days of box office, Transformers can't break $70 million, so Alien: Covenant stays in the Top 5 for at least one more week. I'd like to say that Despicable Me 3 will debut past that next weekend, but who knows these days? If not, Transformers will almost certainly make up the difference, right?

Here are the current standings:

1. YmoBeThere is 4/5 (#1, #2, #3, and #4 films)
2. (tie) murpho, Reddevil, tdrake51 are 3/5 (#1, #2, and #3 films)
5. (tie) aimo, bcsu, bjornolf, DevilBen02, duke23, FerryFor50, jjredickrules, Native, Natty_B, PackMan97, PensDevil are 3/5 (#1, #2, and #4 films)
16. Tommac is 3/5 (#1, #3, and #4 films)
17. chriso is 3/5 (#1, #4, and #5 films)
18. (tie) The 19 other people who picked Wonder Woman are 2/5 (#1 and #2 films)
37. (tie) JNort, nmduke2001, udaman are 2/5 (#1 and #3 films)
40. (tie) BLPOG, CameronBornAndBred, Dar95, davekay1971, Highlander, mph, wilson are 2/5 (#1 and #4 films)
47. (tie) The 7 people who did not pick Alien or Pirates or Wonder Woman or Cars 3 are 1/5
54. Bluedag (Dunkirk will connect with America's youth!)

[El_Diablo]

Unfortunately, Tim caved to the pressures of Hollywood and fell down a deep hole of drugs, thus ending a promising career. His brother smartly stayed on a healthier path, and has done pretty well for himself.

Any relation to the great actor Otm Shank?

[Indoor66]

A serious question (really): do any of you go to the movies on any REGULAR basis?

I go every couple of years - when one comes along that I think will be, truly entertaining and be reasonably well made. My first criteria is being entertained

[El_Diablo]

-Jason "this was always a lock... and now the only question is whether Guardians or Spidey end up as the biggest movie of summer... Wonder Woman will be #3" Evans

Wonder Woman has great legs and has been chipping away steadily at Guardians. The film is now only $16 million behind where Guardians was at this point (a number that started at $43 million after its first weekend and has shrunk each week since). I would not be surprised to see it surpass Guardians when all is said and done.

[YmoBeThere]

Results!

The 5 Biggest Films of the Summer (so far)

1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $380,213,327
2. Wonder Woman $318,380,158
3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $160,004,326
4. Cars 3 $99,882,893
5. Alien: Covenant $73,328,461



Wrong! After 5 days of box office, Transformers can't break $70 million, so Alien: Covenant stays in the Top 5 for at least one more week. I'd like to say that Despicable Me 3 will debut past that next weekend, but who knows these days? If not, Transformers will almost certainly make up the difference, right?

Here are the current standings:

1. YmoBeThere is 4/5 (#1, #2, #3, and #4 films)
2. (tie) murpho, Reddevil, tdrake51 are 3/5 (#1, #2, and #3 films)
5. (tie) aimo, bcsu, bjornolf, DevilBen02, duke23, FerryFor50, jjredickrules, Native, Natty_B, PackMan97, PensDevil are 3/5 (#1, #2, and #4 films)
16. Tommac is 3/5 (#1, #3, and #4 films)
17. chriso is 3/5 (#1, #4, and #5 films)
18. (tie) The 19 other people who picked Wonder Woman are 2/5 (#1 and #2 films)
37. (tie) JNort, nmduke2001, udaman are 2/5 (#1 and #3 films)
40. (tie) BLPOG, CameronBornAndBred, Dar95, davekay1971, Highlander, mph, wilson are 2/5 (#1 and #4 films)
47. (tie) The 7 people who did not pick Alien or Pirates or Wonder Woman or Cars 3 are 1/5
54. Bluedag (Dunkirk will connect with America's youth!)

I shall have to do a dance now as likely to get 2 or 3 when the final tally is done.

[JasonEvans]

Wonder Woman has great legs and has been chipping away steadily at Guardians. The film is now only $16 million behind where Guardians was at this point (a number that started at $43 million after its first weekend and has shrunk each week since). I would not be surprised to see it surpass Guardians when all is said and done.

I hear ya, but it has a long way to go and I suspect it will start to peter out soon.

Currently, WW is at $318.3 mil. Guardians is at $380.2 mil. So, WW has $61.9 mil to go... though Guardians will continue to make some money, it made $3 mil this past weekend. I think Guardians ends up around $385-$390 mil. While WW is showing remarkable legs, I just don't think it will quite get there.

WW is going to start losing theaters soon as new blockbusters demand more seats. DM3, Baby Driver, and The House all open this week and will be in wide release (3000+ theaters each). Spider-man Homecoming hits next week. Up until now, WW has maintained its theater count. It was in 4165 theaters opening week and 3933 this week, an impressive hold after 4 weekends. But, those numbers are going to tumble as there simply isn't room for all the new films.

WW has also benefited from being seen as the only good movie in theaters. I mean, look at the other major films to come out since it was released: The Mummy, Cars 3, Rough Night, and Transformers 5. Ugh... With Baby Driver, DM3, and Spidey hitting theaters, WW won't be see as the only quality option. I also suspect Baby Driver and Spidey will target the same kind of audience that has been driving WW's boxoffice. The other recent releases simply haven't been the kind of films that could dent WW's fan base. That will not be the case starting this week.

I'm not saying it is impossible. Look, WW has posted remarkable holds the past couple weeks. It only dropped 29% in weekend #3 and only 39% in weekend #4, but I suspect it will stall out around $360-370 mil.

-Jason "given the great early buzz, is there any question Spidey will hit the upper $300s? I don't think so" Evans

[brevity]

Here are the current standings:

1. YmoBeThere is 4/5 (#1, #2, #3, and #4 films)

I shall have to do a dance now as likely to get 2 or 3 when the final tally is done.

Save your energy. If Despicable Me 3 debuts in the Top 5 next week, you will be 5-for-5.

Which presents the question: Is YmoBeThere's 5-for-5 the greatest performance in DBR Box Office Contest history? Even though (1) the 5-for-5 has not actually happened yet, (2) Pirates and Cars 3 aren't guaranteed to stay in the Top 5, and (3) every July and August release still has to underperform, the answer is clearly yes. I would not be surprised if a fan of YmoBeThere got a 5-for-5 tattoo today to commemorate the occasion.

[YmoBeThere]

Save your energy. If Despicable Me 3 debuts in the Top 5 next week, you will be 5-for-5.

Which presents the question: Is YmoBeThere's 5-for-5 the greatest performance in DBR Box Office Contest history? Even though (1) the 5-for-5 has not actually happened yet, (2) Pirates and Cars 3 aren't guaranteed to stay in the Top 5, and (3) every July and August release still has to underperform, the answer is clearly yes. I would not be surprised if a fan of YmoBeThere got a 5-for-5 tattoo today to commemorate the occasion.

A temporary tattoo...

[JasonEvans]

So, there is an interesting phenomenon happening regarding reviews of this film. For a while yesterday, as the first reviews rolled in, DM3 was up in the mid-80s on Rotten Tomatoes. It appeared to be one of the better movies of the year, based on the widely recognized RT metric.

But there was a flaw in the system that DM3 was accidentally exploiting. Rotten Tomatoes main rating only looks at one thing -- is the review positive or negative? Using the typical 5-star ranking method, RT makes no differentiation between a film that gets 3 stars and one that gets 5 stars; both are simply a positive review. The same happens on the negative side, where a film that is only a little bit bad is ranked the same as one that is truly awful.

"Yeah, Jason. We know that. So what?" Well, the first couple dozen reviews of DM3 were not overwhelmingly positive raves as one would typically expect from a film that achieves a mid-80% score. What had happened was the first reviews included a lot of ok, but not great reviews (lots of 2.5 or 3-star reviews) and a few poor reviews. As a result, it looked like DM3 was a better film than it actually was.

DM3 screened for many more critics last night (I saw it, more on that in a moment) and a bunch more reviews have poured in as a result. DM3 currently stands at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes, which more closely matches the tone of the reviews. But, there was this temporary little blip that made it seem a lot more positive. I just thought it was interesting and worth noting.



As for my view of the film, well, let's just say I was not as positive at Rotten Tomatoes is. The film is really designed for 5-8 year olds and, unlike the original, contains little humor or story that works for adults. It is a very short movie, just 90 minutes, but felt like it was 2 1/2 hours. A critic I sat next to looked at his watch about midway through the film and then looked again only 2 minutes later... that is not a good sign.

The movie essentially follows 3 completely unconnected plots -- Gru and his twin brother versus criminal Balthazar Bratt (Trey Parker); Lucy (Kristin Wigg) trying to bond with Dru's three adopted children; and the Minions going out on their own in an effort to be criminals now that Gru has turned good. Three plots... and none of them are even remotely interesting or thoughtful (or funny). I probably yawned 4 or 5 times and it is entirely possible I dozed off at one point. There is no character or story arc to hold our attention.

Make no mistake, the kids in the audience were howling with laughter at times, but I could tell the adults were not joining them. This isn't an awful film, it's just lazy and not particularly interesting.

It is still going to make a ton of money at the boxoffice. Unlike Cars 3, this film has a decent bit of good will from audiences due to the quality of the first DM film. While it targets the exact same audience (young kids) as Cars 3, I would expect it to make well over $250 million.

-Jason "I really feel like Hollywood has gotten lazy in animated films this year... there's yet to be anything this year that deserves much critical praise" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Not starting a thread for winter with summer in full swing, but I never thought a remake/reboot of Jumanji would be a player for the winter top 5.
After this trailer, I'm leaning towards it being a lock.

[chriso]

A serious question (really): do any of you go to the movies on any REGULAR basis?

I go every couple of years - when one comes along that I think will be, truly entertaining and be reasonably well made. My first criteria is being entertained

I go on average once a month. I saw the new King Kong and Alien Covenant and will see WW. I want to see Baby Driver. After that I'll wait til fall for It and Blade Runner 2049, unless someone I know is seeing something else. And I'll see Star Wars numerous times as I'm a big fan.

[JasonEvans]

I go on average once a month. I saw the new King Kong and Alien Covenant and will see WW. I want to see Baby Driver. After that I'll wait til fall for It and Blade Runner 2049, unless someone I know is seeing something else. And I'll see Star Wars numerous times as I'm a big fan.

Based on those movies, I would peg you as a good person to enjoy War for the Planet of the Apes and Spidey: Homecoming. Both are excellent films.

[chriso]

Based on those movies, I would peg you as a good person to enjoy War for the Planet of the Apes and Spidey: Homecoming. Both are excellent films.

Thanks! I was actually considering seeing Planet of the Apes. PS Someone here really liked Tomorrowland. I watched it and thought it was very good. A lot of Disney in-jokes thrown in.

[Olympic Fan]

Thanks! I was actually considering seeing Planet of the Apes. PS Someone here really liked Tomorrowland. I watched it and thought it was very good. A lot of Disney in-jokes thrown in.

Another convert!