View Poll Results: What will be the top 5 films at the boxoffice this summer?

Voters
54. You may not vote on this poll
  • Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 (May 5)

    53 98.15%
  • Alien Covenant (May 19)

    1 1.85%
  • Baywatch (May 26)

    5 9.26%
  • Pirates of the Carib 5 (May 26)

    8 14.81%
  • Wonder Woman (June 2)

    34 62.96%
  • Captain Underpants (June 2)

    3 5.56%
  • The Mummy (June 9)

    2 3.70%
  • Cars 3 (June 16)

    21 38.89%
  • Transformers: Last Knight (June 23)

    18 33.33%
  • Despicable Me 3 (June 30)

    48 88.89%
  • Spider-man Homecoming (July 7)

    44 81.48%
  • War of the Planet of the Apes (July 14)

    6 11.11%
  • Dunkirk (July 21)

    13 24.07%
  • The Dark Tower (August 4)

    2 3.70%
  • Field (all other films)

    8 14.81%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 281 to 300 of 475
  1. #281
    The opening Friday for Cars 3 put it at $19.5 million. I'm not sure if it will break $60 million for an opening weekend. I could be out of this contest :/

  2. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    The opening Friday for Cars 3 put it at $19.5 million. I'm not sure if it will break $60 million for an opening weekend. I could be out of this contest :/
    Latest round of numbers I am seeing is $53 million for the weekend.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  3. #283
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Latest round of numbers I am seeing is $53 million for the weekend.
    Yup, that is what the number appears to be. Apparently, Cars 3 is skewing even younger than the typical Pixar film. Deadline says 54% of the audience were kids (under 10). Pixar's most successful films have all been able to appeal to both kids and adults and this one seems to only be hitting the youngest demographic. This is problematic from a boxoffice standpoint because kid tickets are cheaper and it means the film will not get into the lucrative teen and young adult markets. Now, it is great for merchandising as Disney will sell a ton of Cars toys and pajamas and lunchboxes and all that stuff, but in terms of boxoffice, it could be a problem. It will take close to a 4x multiplier for this film to get to $200 million. It is not impossible, but is sorta a longshot.

    That said, we are rapidly edging toward a reality where there could be a slew of films that make between $160-$200 million (Pirates, Cars 3, War of Apes, Transformers, and Dunkirk could all be headed that direction) and our #5 film could put up a number in the $180s or $190s. Cars 3 is not out of the running, that's for sure.

    -Jason "next week I see screenings of Transformers, Apes, and Baby Driver... really excited for 2 of theses" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  4. #284
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    Results!

    The 5 Biggest Films of the Summer (so far)

    1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 $374,853,015
    2. Wonder Woman $274,601,730
    3. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales $150,066,114
    4. Alien: Covenant $72,660,985
    5. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie $57,963,660

    The big story here is the logjam around #5. Captain Underpants pulls the upset as it and The Mummy ($56M) pass Baywatch ($55M) while Cars 3 stalls ($53M). Alien: Covenant enjoys yet another week in the Top 5, but I suspect it will finally drop out next time. Cars 3 should overtake it, and Transformers may roll out past both.

    Here are the current standings:

    1. (tie) murpho, Reddevil, tdrake51, YmoBeThere are 3/5 (#1, #2, and #3 films)
    5. (tie) The 30 other people who picked Wonder Woman are 2/5 (#1 and #2 films)
    35. (tie) JNort, nmduke2001, Tommac, udaman are 2/5 (#1 and #3 films)
    39. chriso is 2/5 (#1 and #4 films)
    40. (tie) BD80, Blue in the Face, cato are 2/5 (#1 and #5 films)
    43. (tie) The 11 people who did not pick Alien or Pirates or Wonder Woman or Underpants are 1/5
    54. Bluedag (still locked in)

  5. #285
    Maybe we should start guessing worldwide box office rankings?

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  6. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    The big story here is the logjam around #5. Captain Underpants pulls the upset as it and The Mummy ($56M) pass Baywatch ($55M) while Cars 3 stalls ($53M). Alien: Covenant enjoys yet another week in the Top 5, but I suspect it will finally drop out next time. Cars 3 should overtake it, and Transformers may roll out past both.
    Transformers is not projected to open higher than $73 million, but it is not out of the question. Obviously, a lot will depend upon the reviews that come out over the next few days. Most of the estimates I have seen have Transformers 5 opening in the $55-65 million kind of range. If so, it may be yet another flick that struggles to get to $200 million if it follows the path of Transformers 4. That film opened to $100 mil and went on to make $245 mil, a poor 2.45x multiplier. By comparison, T1 did a 4.55x multiple, T2 was 3.72, and T3 was 3.60.

    T4 showed that there was a lot of franchise fatigue here and there are few signs that has worn off in the 3 years since it came out. If T5 opens, as expected, in the $55-$65 mil range, it will need better than a 3x multiplier to reach $200 million.

    -Jason "it is worth noting that director Michael Bay has had exactly one film in his life that got higher than 50% on Rotten Tomatoes -- The Rock at 62%. Everything else was rotten, though I think Armageddon (35%) was a fun flick that deserves some praise" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  7. #287
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "it is worth noting that director Michael Bay has had exactly one film in his life that got higher than 50% on Rotten Tomatoes -- The Rock at 62%. Everything else was rotten, though I think Armageddon (35%) was a fun flick that deserves some praise" Evans
    Heretic! I somehow just saw Armageddon for the first time a few days ago. It's crazy how inferior it is to the same-year-release Deep Impact, included but not limited to scientific accuracy.

  8. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Alien: Covenant enjoys yet another week in the Top 5, but I suspect it will finally drop out next time. Cars 3 should overtake it, and Transformers may roll out past both.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Transformers is not projected to open higher than $73 million, but it is not out of the question.
    Is that $73 million for a 3-day weekend, or for the 5 days Transformers will accumulate box office, as it opens Wednesday?

    And keep in mind I'm talking about the only box office chart that matters: the one I put up on DBR every Sunday for this contest. I'm not saying that Transformers will finish in the Top 5, or ultimately make more than Cars 3. I am saying that Cars 3 and Transformers will crack the Top 5 next Sunday. But which will be higher: 5 days of Transformers, or 10 days of Cars 3?

    This may be a good time to take this in-season analysis to the next level. Let's start talking about studio strength. Here are the summer releases for each major studio.

    Disney: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales, Cars 3
    Warner Bros.: King Arthur: Legend of the Sword, Everything Everything, Wonder Woman, The House, Dunkirk, Annabelle: Creation
    Fox: Snatched, Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul, Alien: Covenant, Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie, War for the Planet of the Apes
    Universal: The Mummy, Despicable Me 3, Girls Trip
    Paramount: Baywatch, Transformers: The Last Knight
    Sony: Rough Night, Baby Driver, Spider-Man: Homecoming, The Emoji Movie, The Dark Tower, All Saints

    How should we calculate studio strength over the summer season when the studios themselves prepare a year-round strategy? 2017 has been a pretty good example so far. Even before the summer started, some studios were sitting pretty: Universal (Split $138M, Fifty Shades Darker $114M, Get Out $175M, The Fate of the Furious $224M); Fox (Logan $226M, The Boss Baby $172M); Warner Bros. (The LEGO Batman Movie $175M, Kong: Skull Island $168M). Disney only put out one major release before summer, but it was Beauty and the Beast ($503M).

    We need some kind of Rational Summer Concentration Index (RSCI) to figure this out.

  9. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Is that $73 million for a 3-day weekend, or for the 5 days Transformers will accumulate box office, as it opens Wednesday?
    I'm an idiot. I completely forgot about the Wednesday opening. That makes all questions about opening weekend multiplier and the such completely moot. If Transformers 5 has anything but a disastrous or a boffo opening, we will just have to wait a bit to get a real sense as to where it will fall in our contest.

    -Jason "Michael Bay has to be due at some point... right?" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #290
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "Michael Bay has to be due at some point... right?" Evans
    Sounds like someone trying to catch it on the raver.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  11. #291
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "Michael Bay has to be due at some point... right?" Evans
    Does he?



    (No luck embedding the video. I vaguely remember a recent DBR tutorial on embedding videos but couldn't find it. Feel free fix it for me)
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 06-19-2017 at 05:45 PM.

  12. #292
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    Quote Originally Posted by mph View Post
    (No luck embedding the video. I vaguely remember a recent DBR tutorial on embedding videos but couldn't find it. Feel free fix it for me)
    I fixed it... and I add this little gem to that. Be sure to stay until the very, very end!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  13. #293
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Sounds like someone trying to catch it on the raver.
    Raver? Darn iPhone, river, dammit, river.

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  14. #294
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    Transformers mini-review

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "Michael Bay has to be due at some point... right?" Evans
    Whew... was I ever wrong about that. Having watched this film, I am more convinced than ever that Michael Bay simply has no idea how to tell a story. Transformers 5 is a series of almost random CGI action scenes with no connective tissue. Stuff just happens for no reason (with no consequences) and then more stuff happens and the whole thing seems utterly unconnected.

    Anthony Hopkins is in this film (a shameful check-cashing effort from him). He has more dialogue than anyone else, probably more than any other 2 characters combined. His role is exposition. He talks and talks and talks, sometimes for 5+ minutes in a row. His role is to explain what is going on to us. Usually, endless exposition like that is a sign of a weak script, but it at least helps the audience to know where the story is headed. In this case, the exposition doesn't even explain what is going on. After one of his long dialogues, I turned to a critic friend and said, "I'm still completely lost about what they are doing." He replied, "It doesn't matter. Nothing makes sense and no one cares."

    The movie ended (2 1/2 hours, unrelentingly dull and uninspiring) and I commented that if you asked me to summarize the plot, I am not sure I could do it. I know they went to a destroyed city, a junk yard, a castle, a submarine, and Stonehenge, but I'm not entirely clear why they went to any of these places or what happened at each of them other than some kind of CGI-overloaded chase/shooting scene.


    One problem I always have with Transformer movies is I can't really tell who the good Transformers are and who the bad one are. When they start to fight, I am not clear on which of them is which. This movie makes that even worse because I think some of them were good some of the time and bad other times. Optimus Prime is a bad guy at one point and then becomes a good guy again (with no real explanation). There are these old "Knight" Transformers that had some role but I honestly could not tell you which side they were fighting upon. What's worse, the human soldiers who are in the movie also seem to constantly be switching sides. The film is full of Transformer-related devices (a medallion and a staff in particular) that everyone pretends are key plot elements but end up not really mattering in the end. There's a butler Transformer who never transforms into anything (he even drives a car at one point). It... all... just... makes... no... sense!!

    There is a really, really low bar to clear with these movies. The only one thus far that was even borderline sensible was the first one. I'm not sure if this movie is the worst of the series, Transformers 4 was also nonsensical, but it sure comes close. I guess if you really liked Trans 2-3-and-4 then you will like this movie, but I truly cannot understand what anyone would find appealing about this mess.

    -Jason "it is so, so awful... Trans 2 and 4 are at 19% and 18% on Rotten Tomatoes... I wonder if this one will beat them" Evans

    P.S. - There is a 5 minute prologue at the start of the film with Merlin, King Arthur, and a Transformer dragon... I would have gladly watched 2 hours of that movie. Stanley Tucci played Merlin and was hysterical. But, the rest of the movie is only casually connected to these scenes.
    Last edited by JasonEvans; 06-20-2017 at 12:56 PM.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  15. #295
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Whew... was I ever wrong about that. Having watched this film, I am more convinced than ever that Michael Bay simply has no idea how to tell a story. Transformers 5 is a series of almost random CGI action scenes with no connective tissue. Stuff just happens for no reason (with no consequences) and then more stuff happens and the whole thing seems utterly unconnected.
    Thanks for the review and for saving me $15. Wasn't high on my list to see, anyway, but now I can skip it without a second thought.

  16. #296
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "it is worth noting that director Michael Bay has had exactly one film in his life that got higher than 50% on Rotten Tomatoes -- The Rock at 62%. Everything else was rotten, though I think Armageddon (35%) was a fun flick that deserves some praise" Evans
    Anybody seen "Pain and Gain"? That's the one Michael Bay movie I like.

  17. #297
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    Jason's review of Transformers was fun to read, but this review from the Village Voice, Here's What the New Transformers Movie Is Like, is an instant classic.

    P.S. On the subject of Michael Bay movies, I may be the only person who liked The Island.

  18. #298
    So, Jason, does seeing it change your guess for Transformers 4's box office take?

  19. #299
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Jason's review of Transformers was fun to read, but this review from the Village Voice, Here's What the New Transformers Movie Is Like, is an instant classic.

    P.S. On the subject of Michael Bay movies, I may be the only person who liked The Island.
    Excellent V.V. review. Now that I have the feel of the movie from the review I won't plunk down cash money to see it. I wasn't going to in any event.

    I do believe found a spelling error in the review however. The grammar police should be alerted.

  20. #300
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Jason's review of Transformers was fun to read, but this review from the Village Voice, Here's What the New Transformers Movie Is Like, is an instant classic.

    P.S. On the subject of Michael Bay movies, I may be the only person who liked The Island.
    That is awesome! Likely better than the movie itself.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

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