MLB: The 2017 Season

[JBDuke]

What an ugly loss today by the Nationals to the Braves and Julio Teheran - a 13-0 shellacking. It's the first time the Nats have been shut out all year, and it came at the hands of a pitcher who owned an ERA of 5.91 over the last 3 seasons (8 starts) against the Nationals. Strasburg had his ugliest outing in a long time, including getting nailed by a line drive off the bat of Markakis. Stras was out after just 3 innings, giving up 6 runs, 3 of them earned. His own throwing error on the play he got hit led to the unearned runs. The bullpen just poured fuel on the fire. Lefty Sammy Solis gave up 4 late ERs to drive his ERA up to 15.43. Ugh.

I think the Nationals need the All-Star break.

[Olympic Fan]

What an ugly loss today by the Nationals to the Braves and Julio Teheran - a 13-0 shellacking. It's the first time the Nats have been shut out all year, and it came at the hands of a pitcher who owned an ERA of 5.91 over the last 3 seasons (8 starts) against the Nationals. Strasburg had his ugliest outing in a long time, including getting nailed by a line drive off the bat of Markakis. Stras was out after just 3 innings, giving up 6 runs, 3 of them earned. His own throwing error on the play he got hit led to the unearned runs. The bullpen just poured fuel on the fire. Lefty Sammy Solis gave up 4 late ERs to drive his ERA up to 15.43. Ugh.

I think the Nationals need the All-Star break.

The Nationals will be okay ... in the regular season.

For all their problems in the bullpen, they still have the best offense in baseball and a strong starting staff (despite Strasberg's clunker Saturday). They have a comfortable lead in their division and none of the teams behind them -- the Braves, the Mets, the Marlins and the Phillies -- have the potential to make a real run.

So the Nats will win the Division, period.

Of course, it's fair to wonder what happens after that. The Nationals have never won a playoff series and unless bullpen is improved, they won't win one this year either.

The most likely thing is that they give up some top prospects to get a quality reliever. Or do they go cheap and settle for a mediocre stopgap? Or do they have a minor league arm that's ready to come in and solve their problem?

It's going to be interesting to watch in the three weeks before the trade deadline (July 31). I'm not a Nats fan, but I can't believe they would not go all out on the trade market -- the Cubs gave up two prime prospects a year ago for Chapman ... but that move won them their first title in 108 years. They don't win without Chapman (or at least somebody on that level). Heck, the Indians don't make Game 7 of the series without Miller, a guy they picked up at the trade deadline.

Normally, I'm skeptical about trading top prospects for an established player, but when you are as close as the Cubs were last year -- and the Nats are this year -- I think you have to make the move.

If the Nats land a legitimate stopper, they battle the Dodgers to the wire in the NL an make a real run at the world championship. Sit tight and Nats fans are due for a lot more late-game frustration.

[YmoBeThere]

The Reds continue to be sellers and are willing to deal. I will be surprised if Raisel Iglesias is not wearing a different red-hued uniform after the deadline.

[CDu]

Minor quibble, Oly, but the Cubs didn't give up two prime prospects for Chapman. They gave up one prime prospect (Torres), one MLB reliever (Warren), one fringy prospect who profiles as a fourth OF (McKinney), and a minor league roster filler who won't likely ever reach the majors (Crawford).

Torres is a stud for sure, and I suspect you are lumping McKinney in as the second prime prospect. But McKinney was more highly thought of in 2014-15 (peaking as a top-90 prospect) when folks hoped he would develop more power. But he reached AA and the power didn't come, and his status dropped quickly. He was unrated by last Fall..

[Olympic Fan]

Minor quibble, Oly, but the Cubs didn't give up two prime prospects for Chapman. They gave up one prime prospect (Torres), one MLB reliever (Warren), one fringy prospect who profiles as a fourth OF (McKinney), and a minor league roster filler who won't likely ever reach the majors (Crawford).

Torres is a stud for sure, and I suspect you are lumping McKinney in as the second prime prospect. But McKinney was more highly thought of in 2014-15 (peaking as a top-90 prospect) when folks hoped he would develop more power. But he reached AA and the power didn't come, and his status dropped quickly. He was unrated by last Fall..

Fair enough ... but I wonder if you -- as a Cub fan -- agree with my point that making the deal for Chapman was the move that got Chicago (barely) over the top last season ... and suggests that the Nats should bite the bullet and do something similar, even if it does cost them a top prospect or two.

PS I might have been conflating the deal for Chapman with the deal for Andrew Miller to the Indians, which brought us Frazier, who IS a prime prospect (at least he looks that way after his first week or so in the majors)

[CDu]

Fair enough ... but I wonder if you -- as a Cub fan -- agree with my point that making the deal for Chapman was the move that got Chicago (barely) over the top last season ... and suggests that the Nats should bite the bullet and do something similar, even if it does cost them a top prospect or two.

PS I might have been conflating the deal for Chapman with the deal for Andrew Miller to the Indians, which brought us Frazier, who IS a prime prospect (at least he looks that way after his first week or so in the majors)

With the power of hindsight, yes, I am glad they made the deal. They didn't NEED Chapman at the time of the trade. But the trade did two things: (1) it mitigated risk by giving them extra depth in the pen; and (2) it kept Chapman from going to, say, a potential rival like the Nationals.

The trade quickly got better for the Cubs when both their closer (Rondon) and their setup man (Strop) got hurt. Those would have been devastating injuries without Chapman. But with Chapman and the additions of Rodney and Montgomery and the arrival of Edwards, the Cubs' bullpen remained functional.

So if I was Washington - who unlike the Cubs last year actually currently DO need a closer - I would absolutely find a closer if there is a dominant one like Chapman available.

[DU82]

So if I was Washington - who unlike the Cubs last year actually currently DO need a closer - I would absolutely find a closer if there is a dominant one like Chapman available.

Unlike last year, when (at least) three closer-level relievers were moved (Chapman, Miller and Melancon), I don't think there's an obvious one available this season. At least not yet, and if one becomes available, he's going to be much more expensive.

[rasputin]

Unlike last year, when (at least) three closer-level relievers were moved (Chapman, Miller and Melancon), I don't think there's an obvious one available this season. At least not yet, and if one becomes available, he's going to be much more expensive.

A lot of folks have observed that the Cardinals might be sellers at the deadline. Their current closer, Seung-Hwan Oh, has 18 saves, but an unimposing 3.54 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Trevor Rosenthal used to be the closer, and his ERA for the year is 4.05, with a 1.26 WHIP. There was talk that Rosenthal might be moved, but then he had a terrible month of June (9 earned runs in 11 innings). Obviously neither of these guys would be considered shut-down closers, but they might look attractive compared to the dumpster fire the Nationals' closer position has been.

[CDu]

Unlike last year, when (at least) three closer-level relievers were moved (Chapman, Miller and Melancon), I don't think there's an obvious one available this season. At least not yet, and if one becomes available, he's going to be much more expensive.

A lot of folks have observed that the Cardinals might be sellers at the deadline. Their current closer, Seung-Hwan Oh, has 18 saves, but an unimposing 3.54 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Trevor Rosenthal used to be the closer, and his ERA for the year is 4.05, with a 1.26 WHIP. There was talk that Rosenthal might be moved, but then he had a terrible month of June (9 earned runs in 11 innings). Obviously neither of these guys would be considered shut-down closers, but they might look attractive compared to the dumpster fire the Nationals' closer position has been.

Yeah, therein lies the rub: I haven't followed the trade market closely this year, but it is probably unlikely that an elite closer becomes available. Ironically, the best potential option may wind up being... Wade Davis. If the Cubs sputter through the next week or so, it would be a bold move by Epstein/Hoyer to flip Davis for prospects and let Edwards take over the closer role.

Of course, that is only if the Cubs' brass is confident they are out of it. At 5.5 back, they are still close enough to make the decision difficult.

[Olympic Fan]

Pretty awesome HR Derby -- at least the first round.

All four matchups were dramatic:

-- Sano edged Moustakis by one HR when Moustakas put three on the warning track in the final 16 seconds. He did not get the bonus 30 seconds for hitting two 440-foot home runs.

-- Sanchez upset Stanton 17-16. Stanton started slow and seemed to be out of it when he was down 17-5 with just under two minutes left. Then he got hot and got to 15 HR with 30 seconds in regulation and 30 bonus seconds left. But he could only hit one more HR in that time, so Sanchez won.

-- Bellinger trailed Blackman 14-12 with five seconds left ... on his next to last swing, Bellinger hit his second 440-foot HR and this earned an extra 30 seconds. He hit two in the extra time -- the last one coming with five seconds left.

-- Bour was unbelievable with 22 home runs in his time (plus the bonus). But Judge matched him, despite some confusion on his count. ESPN had him at 23 HRs with 15 seconds left, but Judge kept swinging and with seven seconds left hit another HR. It turns out that one of his blasts -- projected at over 500 feet, hit the roof and bounced back into play. It's the same rule as you sometimes see in St. Pete, but the roof is much higher in Miami and that rule never comes into play. Stanton was doing commentary at the time and said he had never see that.

All the drama was in the first round. Sano easily beat a very tired Sanchez in one semi; Judge easily beat Bellinger in the other (he had a 513 foot shot -- the longest in the contest)

Sano was gassed in the finals -- he only put up 10 home runs. Judge won going away -- he hit his 11th with over two minutes left (plus his bonus time).

Awesome display by Judge, although he did have to fight for his life against Bour in the opener. Judge ended up with three 500-foot homers (not counting the one that hit the roof). Stanton didn't get to 500 feet, but he had four blasts over 480 feet.

I love the new format with the clock. I think I prefer the HR Derby to any baseball before the playoffs -- certainly enjoy it a lot more than the All-Star game.

[Mal]

It's just really, really hard to dislike Aaron Judge the way one is supposed to loathe and despise Yankees sluggers.

Oly, just a quibble that it's Bour, not Bourn. No way Matt Damon could hit a baseball 500 feet.

[duke74]

Oly, just a quibble that it's Bour, not Bourn. No way Matt Damon could hit a baseball 500 feet.

Especially without his "e".

[mkirsh]

Pretty awesome HR Derby -- at least the first round.

All four matchups were dramatic:

-- Sano edged Moustakis by one HR when Moustakas put three on the warning track in the final 16 seconds. He did not get the bonus 30 seconds for hitting two 440-foot home runs.

-- Sanchez upset Stanton 17-16. Stanton started slow and seemed to be out of it when he was down 17-5 with just under two minutes left. Then he got hot and got to 15 HR with 30 seconds in regulation and 30 bonus seconds left. But he could only hit one more HR in that time, so Sanchez won.

-- Bellinger trailed Blackman 14-12 with five seconds left ... on his next to last swing, Bellinger hit his second 440-foot HR and this earned an extra 30 seconds. He hit two in the extra time -- the last one coming with five seconds left.

-- Bour was unbelievable with 22 home runs in his time (plus the bonus). But Judge matched him, despite some confusion on his count. ESPN had him at 23 HRs with 15 seconds left, but Judge kept swinging and with seven seconds left hit another HR. It turns out that one of his blasts -- projected at over 500 feet, hit the roof and bounced back into play. It's the same rule as you sometimes see in St. Pete, but the roof is much higher in Miami and that rule never comes into play. Stanton was doing commentary at the time and said he had never see that.

All the drama was in the first round. Sano easily beat a very tired Sanchez in one semi; Judge easily beat Bellinger in the other (he had a 513 foot shot -- the longest in the contest)

Sano was gassed in the finals -- he only put up 10 home runs. Judge won going away -- he hit his 11th with over two minutes left (plus his bonus time).

Awesome display by Judge, although he did have to fight for his life against Bour in the opener. Judge ended up with three 500-foot homers (not counting the one that hit the roof). Stanton didn't get to 500 feet, but he had four blasts over 480 feet.

I love the new format with the clock. I think I prefer the HR Derby to any baseball before the playoffs -- certainly enjoy it a lot more than the All-Star game.

I haven't watched any AL this year so this was my first time seeing Judge, and man was that impressive. He had swings that looked like they would be pop ups to second but instead landed in the opposite field bullpen, and when he squared one up it looked like it would break through the glass wall in left. This must be what people felt like seeing Wilt Chamberlain walk onto the court - Judge looks like he is at a totally different level than everyone else.

[Mal]

Especially without his "e".

Softball lobbed....and smashed. Within just over half an hour. Thank you! duke74 and I will be here all week; tip your waiters.

[JasonEvans]

What am I missing about the rise of this guys as a stud?

His first year as a pro (2014), at age 22 playing low and high A ball (not exactly young to be playing at that level at his age as there are lots of teens in A baseball) he hit 17 dingers in 467 at bats, a homerun rate of 3.64%.

In 2015 he split time between AA and AAA ball, hitting 20 homeruns in 478 at bats, or 4.18%.

Last year he was exclusively at AAA until he got a late season call up. At AAA he hit 19 homers in 352 at bats, his best ratio yet with a homer in 5.29% of his at bats. He also had a call up to the MLB where he hit 4 homers in 84 at bats, for a homer percentage of 4.76%.

This year, he has played half a season of MLB and is rewriting the record books with 30 dingers in 301 at bats, 9.99% of the time. It is a total aberration compared to what he had done throughout the rest of his career.

Of course, the crazy part is when you watch him swing and when you look at his size, it makes perfect sense that Judge is knocking balls 450+ feet with some absurd degree of regularity. He miss-hit a half dozen or more balls into the stands last night at the derby, he's just that strong.

Still, to go from a guy who hits dingers about 4.5% of the time to one who hits them 10% of the time (facing muuuuuuch better pitching) just seems crazy. And it is not like the baseball world saw this coming. I mean, he was a very good prospect (drafted late in the 1st round in 2013) who has been ranked among the top 100 prospects in the game the past 3 years, but he's never been ranked in the top 50 (he was Baseball America's #53 prospect after the 2014 season, #76 prospect after the 2015 season, and #90 after last year). I mean, no one saw this coming.

-Jason "so, do any of us think juice could be involved or did he just magically, at age 25, suddenly figure out how to hit the baseball 10-20% further than in the past?" Evans

[Mal]

What am I missing about the rise of this guys as a stud?

Great background and points, and a mystery I've wondered about, myself. Among other possible factors beyond nefarious ones*, off the top of my head I'll mention (a) entering his physical prime, and it could have taken him longer to figure out his power stroke and physicality and grow into his frame than other, not larger than the average NFL defensive end, ballplayers, (b) the major league level scouting reports haven't caught up to him yet, (c) he's being coached at the big league level in a different way, to not worry about K's and just elevate the ball instead of show the organization he can hit for average or the opposite way or whatever.

Of those, I think (b)'s the one that eventually regresses him to the mean. First of all, there are guys who show up in the majors and have success all out of whack with expectations all the time, but eventually the book comes out on them and they fall back to Earth. Also, there's a reason not that many 6'8" guys become world class hitters of the baseball. Their strike zone is gigantic, and they have long limbs and aren't as quick to the hitting zone as smaller guys. Once the book is established on him, whatever it may be, I expect you'll see him pitched to whatever his relative weakness is relentlessly. Almost every player has a hole or two in their swing. He'll then have to adjust and either learn to hit where he can't now, be more selective and wait for what he likes, or get exploited by above average pitchers who have choices as to what to do against him.

* I mean, we've all learned never to be surprised anymore, but it does strike me as borderline ridiculous these days to just show up dirty on the big league stage and expect not to get caught. So for now I'm downplaying any of that talk. It's not like Judge wasn't huge 2 or 3 years ago. He's naturally bigger than Frank Thomas, so it's no wonder he can hit the ball a mile when he connects.

[KnightDevil]

What am I missing about the rise of this guys as a stud?

His first year as a pro (2014), at age 22 playing low and high A ball (not exactly young to be playing at that level at his age as there are lots of teens in A baseball) he hit 17 dingers in 467 at bats, a homerun rate of 3.64%.

In 2015 he split time between AA and AAA ball, hitting 20 homeruns in 478 at bats, or 4.18%.

Last year he was exclusively at AAA until he got a late season call up. At AAA he hit 19 homers in 352 at bats, his best ratio yet with a homer in 5.29% of his at bats. He also had a call up to the MLB where he hit 4 homers in 84 at bats, for a homer percentage of 4.76%.

This year, he has played half a season of MLB and is rewriting the record books with 30 dingers in 301 at bats, 9.99% of the time. It is a total aberration compared to what he had done throughout the rest of his career.

Of course, the crazy part is when you watch him swing and when you look at his size, it makes perfect sense that Judge is knocking balls 450+ feet with some absurd degree of regularity. He miss-hit a half dozen or more balls into the stands last night at the derby, he's just that strong.

Still, to go from a guy who hits dingers about 4.5% of the time to one who hits them 10% of the time (facing muuuuuuch better pitching) just seems crazy. And it is not like the baseball world saw this coming. I mean, he was a very good prospect (drafted late in the 1st round in 2013) who has been ranked among the top 100 prospects in the game the past 3 years, but he's never been ranked in the top 50 (he was Baseball America's #53 prospect after the 2014 season, #76 prospect after the 2015 season, and #90 after last year). I mean, no one saw this coming.

-Jason "so, do any of us think juice could be involved or did he just magically, at age 25, suddenly figure out how to hit the baseball 10-20% further than in the past?" Evans

I saw Judge play at AA Trenton Thunder. Not a Yankee fan, but I work near the stadium and go there often. Even though his numbers were not off the charts, he was generally regarded as a stud back then. I have no knowledge of whether or not Judge juices. But until there is even a whiff of suspicion in that regard, why go there? Why can't we just enjoy his talent and ability? Besides, even the experts have been known to swing and miss on talent - Hall of Famer Mike Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round with the 1390th pick, and then only as a favor by Tommy Lasorda, a friend of Piazza's father. So, maybe the experts "misjudged" Aaron Judge too.

[Olympic Fan]

As a Yankee fan, I've followed Judge for years. He's always been regarded as a very good prospect - No. 53 in all of baseball is, in fact, pretty good. In fact, Baseball Almanac had him at No. 18 in 2016 (they dropped him to No. 73 coming into this year)

But, Jason is right, nobody saw THIS coming.

To me, the homers are not the big surprise. He's a big, strong guy who should hit a lot of dingers. And with the juiced balls in MLB baseball (plus the small parks), I take the blizzard of bombs with a grain of salt.

What shocks me about Judge is his .330 average and his .450 OPB.

Where did that come from?

A year ago, he hit .179 with a .263 OBP after his callup to the Yankees. He was a .270-ish hitter in the minors.

His season is amazing. Not only is he leading the AL in homers, walks, runs, OBP, SLUG, OPS ... he's also in the running for the batting title and the RBI title.

And, yet, he's also on pace to strike out 200 times -- has anybody ever hit .300 with 200 strikeouts? I don't think so.

And while I don't know about steroids (that's why I hate the steroid cheaters -- they taint everybody who does well), I can't see how you can attribute his sudden success to steroids. He didn't suddenly get big and strong. He was the same size last year when he couldn't cope with MLB pitching. He's been a physical freak since he signed with the Yankees in 2013.

We'll see if it lasts. When this kind of excellence explodes out of nowhere, you have to wonder if it disappears just as suddenly.

But I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts.

[CDu]

-Jason "so, do any of us think juice could be involved or did he just magically, at age 25, suddenly figure out how to hit the baseball 10-20% further than in the past?" Evans

As for the spike in... well... everything, it's still somewhat anomalous. He has always been big: he was drafted at 6'7", 255 four years ago, and was huge last year (when he still stunk) too. So while he certainly could be using PEDs (and to some extent that's true of basically everyone, ever), there isn't clear evidence of it at all. It's not unheard of for guys to not fully tap into their power until their mid-20s. It's rare for the light switch to come on so suddenly. But the reality for guys his height is that it can take a long time to get their swing right. Maybe he just now found his swing.

In looking deeper at his stats, two things jump out at me: his BABIP is .426, and his HR/FB rate is at 41.7%. Both of those numbers are absurdly high and suggest that his performance is fluky. Average HR/FB rate is around 10%; excellent is 20%. For Judge's career prior to 2017, he was 15-20%. A normal BABIP is around .300, whereas a really good hitter can push his BABIP up to around .350. Interestingly, Judge's line drive % is in line with his career averages. So basically, he is having an unusually high rate of HR per flyball, and he is also having unusually high success on getting base hits on balls not hit out of the park. That suggests to me that this has been more of a luck thing than a PED type of thing.

[mr. synellinden]

As for the spike in... well... everything, it's still somewhat anomalous. He has always been big: he was drafted at 6'7", 255 four years ago, and was huge last year (when he still stunk) too. So while he certainly could be using PEDs (and to some extent that's true of basically everyone, ever), there isn't clear evidence of it at all. It's not unheard of for guys to not fully tap into their power until their mid-20s. It's rare for the light switch to come on so suddenly. But the reality for guys his height is that it can take a long time to get their swing right. Maybe he just now found his swing.

In looking deeper at his stats, two things jump out at me: his BABIP is .426, and his HR/FB rate is at 41.7%. Both of those numbers are absurdly high and suggest that his performance is fluky. Average HR/FB rate is around 10%; excellent is 20%. For Judge's career prior to 2017, he was 15-20%. A normal BABIP is around .300, whereas a really good hitter can push his BABIP up to around .350. Interestingly, Judge's line drive % is in line with his career averages. So basically, he is having an unusually high rate of HR per flyball, and he is also having unusually high success on getting base hits on balls not hit out of the park. That suggests to me that this has been more of a luck thing than a PED type of thing.

As a Yankee fan, I've followed Judge for years. He's always been regarded as a very good prospect - No. 53 in all of baseball is, in fact, pretty good. In fact, Baseball Almanac had him at No. 18 in 2016 (they dropped him to No. 73 coming into this year)

But, Jason is right, nobody saw THIS coming.

To me, the homers are not the big surprise. He's a big, strong guy who should hit a lot of dingers. And with the juiced balls in MLB baseball (plus the small parks), I take the blizzard of bombs with a grain of salt.

What shocks me about Judge is his .330 average and his .450 OPB.

Where did that come from?

A year ago, he hit .179 with a .263 OBP after his callup to the Yankees. He was a .270-ish hitter in the minors.

His season is amazing. Not only is he leading the AL in homers, walks, runs, OBP, SLUG, OPS ... he's also in the running for the batting title and the RBI title.

And, yet, he's also on pace to strike out 200 times -- has anybody ever hit .300 with 200 strikeouts? I don't think so.

And while I don't know about steroids (that's why I hate the steroid cheaters -- they taint everybody who does well), I can't see how you can attribute his sudden success to steroids. He didn't suddenly get big and strong. He was the same size last year when he couldn't cope with MLB pitching. He's been a physical freak since he signed with the Yankees in 2013.

We'll see if it lasts. When this kind of excellence explodes out of nowhere, you have to wonder if it disappears just as suddenly.

But I'm going to enjoy it while it lasts.

Could there be a correlation between the two bolded portions?