MLB: The 2017 Season

[YmoBeThere]

There are worse ways to spend an afternoon than drinking beer and watching a close to last place to team

Such as crossing things off the home to-do list?

[Tappan Zee Devil]

As a Nationals fan, I obvious perceive MLB through red and white glasses, but Trea Turner has become "must-watch" baseball, IMO. He's currently leading the majors in stolen bases with 33, and this is despite missing 10 games in April due to a hamstring injury, and then taking it easy for a while and being less aggressive on the bases as he eased back into playing at full speed. He had 3 SBs in his first 5 games, and then went on the DL. Even though he was back on April 21, he still only had 6 SBs as of May 15th. Since then, he's turned it loose. He had 7 SBs in the second half of May and has 19 so far in June, including 2 games with 4 SBs and one with 3. It's exciting viewing!

Just heard that Turner has a broken bone in his wrist and is out indefinitely.

sometimes sh** happens - As a Mets fan, that has very much impressed on me this year.

[Olympic Fan]

I was watching he Dodgers and the Angels play Thursday night, when Clayton Kershaw accomplished something amazing ... or almost accomplished the amazing.

He came close to pitching an "Immaculate Inning" -- three strikeouts on nine pitches. It's something that has apparently been accomplished just 85 times in baseball history.

Technically, Kershaw didn't quite do it last night.

He started the inning with eight straight strikes -- two strikeouts and an 0-2 pitch on the third batter.

His next pitch was called a ball, even though the pitch track showed it was clearly in the strike zone.

His 10th pitch of the inning was a swinging strike, so he officially got three strikeouts on 10 pitches. But if the ump hadn't blown the call on the ninth pitch, he would have had the 86th Immaculate Inning in baseball history.

As it was, he threw seven innings, allowing two hits and an unearned run, while striking out 12 to improve his record to 12-3.

[cspan37421]

"Strikeouts are boring; besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls!"

Interesting stat on 9 pitches/3 strikeouts.

I wonder how many times 3 pitches, 3 outs, have occurred? Google to the rescue:

http://www.baseball-almanac.com/feat...h_inning.shtml

and wikip tells us this:

Consecutive strikes thrown (since pitch-by-pitch recordkeeping introduced in 1988; includes foul balls and balls-in-play)

38 – Bartolo Colón, Oakland Athletics – April 18, 2012 [3]

[Olympic Fan]

Baseball guys are now talking about "the three true outcomes" -- strikeouts, walks and home runs.

The point is that all three are up, meaning there are less balls in play this year than ever before in history.

I watch the Yankees a lot and over the last four games against the White Sox, Chicago walked Aaron Judge nine times.

It reminded me of a year ago, when the Cubs' Joe Madden walked Bryce Harper a ton of times in a series -- the strategy cooled Harper off and helped produce a subpar season for the Nats superstar. Of course, there were some injury problems that contributed to that, but also Zimmerman had such a terrible year that Harper didn't have any protection. As time went on, he chased more and more pitches out of the strike zone.

We'll see if the strategy works with Judge ... right now, he leads all baseball with 56 walks. His OBP is also a MLB best of .441.

He also leads MLB (by a wide margin) in strikeouts (94). In fact, put his strikeouts, walks and home runs together and he had 176 "true outcomes" in 325 plate appearances -- that's 54 percent of his plate appearances!

[Olympic Fan]

June turned out to be the most homer-happy month in baseball history.

There were 1,101 home runs hit in June -- 30 more than in the second-best month in baseball history.

Several explanations offered -- juiced balls, small parks (the fences are MUCH closer in MLB today than they were 50 years ago) and they fact that many, many batters have adopted an all-or-nothing approach.

It's the triumph of Dave Kingman. He's a guy who played from 1971-86 and all he did was hit home runs and strike out. Kingman averaged 37 home runs and 154 strikeouts per 162 games ... he batted .236 with a .302 OBP. He was a controversial player in his day, but now there are dozens of players like him.

I was thinking about Babe Ruth in 1927. When he hit 60 home runs, there were barely 900 home runs hit in baseball -- less than MLB hit last month. I think it conveys some of the impact his power had to think about somebody hitting 60 home runs in the last month!

Of course, Ruth did it in much bigger ballparks, while hitting .356 ... he did strike out a lot -- all of 89 times. Indeed, for all the image of Ruth striking out, he never struck out 100 times in a season. In fact, he topped 90 strikeouts just once.

[Olympic Fan]

Best HR Derby Ever?

Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez just confirmed that they will enter the HR Derby next week. Cody Bellinger and defending champ Gioncardo Stanton are also in.

I've gotten so I hate the all-star game itself (too many non-stars playing too much of the game), but I've come to enjoy the derby, especially since they changed the rules and added the clock.

This one ought to be great with Judge and Bellinger -- on track to have the greatest rookie HR seasons in baseball history -- dueling. Although I think Stanton is probably the favorite (especially at home).

[A-Tex Devil]

Your American League halfway point batting leaders...

DDw4AUjWsAEZbHC.jpg

[camion]

Your American League halfway point batting leaders...

DDw4AUjWsAEZbHC.jpg

One of those could fit inside the other with space enough for a guest bedroom.

[YmoBeThere]

Stanton and Judge make the Bash Brothers look small.

[Blue in the Face]

Logan Morrison's not too excited about the HR derby. (He kind of has a point too).

[micah75]

How is it that Dansby Swanson, hitting below the Mendoza Line for the 1st 2 months has more rbi than last year's mvp Kris Bryant? And Bryant still has a chance to make the All-Star team?? Bryant is choking big time. There are 30 players in the NL alone who have more than 50 rbi. KB only has 33. See ya in another 108 years, Cubbies. Mediocrity to the max.

[DU82]

How is it that Dansby Swanson, hitting below the Mendoza Line for the 1st 2 months has more rbi than last year's mvp Kris Bryant? And Bryant still has a chance to make the All-Star team?? Bryant is choking big time. There are 30 players in the NL alone who have more than 50 rbi. KB only has 33. See ya in another 108 years, Cubbies. Mediocrity to the max.

RBIs are not solely an individual skill. You need somebody on base to drive in (unless you hit a HR.) Especially in the two hole, following a poor leadoff hitter, and in other innings the 8th hitter and pitcher. Bryant does have 51 runs scored, which means at least he's been getting on base (and getting driven in by Rizzo, probably.)

[CDu]

RBIs are not solely an individual skill. You need somebody on base to drive in (unless you hit a HR.) Especially in the two hole, following a poor leadoff hitter, and in other innings the 8th hitter and pitcher. Bryant does have 51 runs scored, which means at least he's been getting on base (and getting driven in by Rizzo, probably.)

Yeah, I hate having a choker like Bryant, with his .390 OBP and .900 OPS. Just terrible.

Sarcasm aside, I agree he probably shouldn't be an All Star. Rendon is having a better year.

[Olympic Fan]

RBIs are not solely an individual skill. You need somebody on base to drive in (unless you hit a HR.) Especially in the two hole, following a poor leadoff hitter, and in other innings the 8th hitter and pitcher. Bryant does have 51 runs scored, which means at least he's been getting on base (and getting driven in by Rizzo, probably.)

I agree -- RBIs are dependent on your teammates getting on base.

For pitchers, your won-loss record is the same -- dependent on run support an the bullpen.

Just an example I heard today -- New York's Luis Severino is 5-4, but that doesn't include seven games he's left with the lead only to have the bullpen blow his win.

On the other hand, his teammate Michael Pineda is 8-4, but that doesn't reflect six games (counting today) where he left with the Yankees trailing only to see he team rally to tie or take the lead, which gets him off the hook.

For batters, I'm much more interested in OPS ... or maybe (to take park effect out of it) OPS-plus.

For pitchers, it's ERA (or ERA-plus) and total innings pitched that offer the best measure of a pitcher.

[Blue in the Face]

While it's true that rbi's are situation dependent and not completely in the player's control, and obviously Bryant is a very good player, he does nonetheless deserve a fair bit of the blame for his poor rbi production so far this year. He's done pretty poorly in rbi situations, hitting .245 and slugging .406 with runners on, and just .207 with a .414 slugging with runners in scoring position. (He is walking a fair bit in those situations at least, so he's not killing as many rallies as the low batting average might suggest). In contrast, with bases empty, he's hitting .275 and slugging .574 . So far this year, he's knocked in 9.66% of the runners on base when he's come to the plate.

Last year his numbers with men on were very similar to when the bases were clear - .290 average, .550'ish slugging. With runners in scoring position he hit .263 and slugged .474 - not as productive as the rest of the time, but much better than this year. Last year he drove in 14.38% of the runners on when he came up, a significant difference.

But getting back to how important opportunities are to begin with, the aforementioned Danby Swanson has come up with runners on in more than 45% of his plate appearances. Bryant just 37%. (Last year Bryant had runners on in almost 48% of his plate appearances).

[Olympic Fan]

Well, we hit the halfway mark on the season this past week and it really doesn't look good.

Two of the six division races are all but decided -- the Astros up 16 games in the AL West; the Nats up 9.5 in the NL East.

Two more races are closer, but seem to have a very solid favorite -- the AL East, where Boston has recovered from a slow start and now seem to be pulling away from the fading Yankees (up 4.0 games at the moment); and the NL West, where the Dodgers have opened a little breathing room in the strongest division in baseball (up 4.5 games)

It's possible that either of those two could heat up, but it really looks like there are just two division races worth watching -- the AL Central, where the Indians, Royals and Twins are all within 1.5 games; and the NL Central; where the Brewers lead the Cubs by 3.5 games. I know that's not so very different than the AL East, but it FEELS different to me. The Red Sox -- with a great starting rotation and a quality bullpen -- SHOULD be pulling away in the East ... but, frankly, I don't believe the Brewers are as good as the Cubs.

The AL wild card race is what we expect. Right now, the Yankees and the Royals get in, but there are actually six other teams within four games. That's normal for this time of year.

What's not normal is the NL wild card race -- the Diamondbacks and the Rockies have the two spots today, but nobody else is within 6.5 games! That's the Cubs -- they have a much better chance of winning the division. The Braves are actually the No. 2 team chasing the two wild card leaders, but that's a full 8 games back.

Anything is possible, but at the halfway mark, it looks like we have just one wild card race (in the AL) and two division races (the AL Central and the NL Central) up for grabs.

[micah75]

Blue in the Face articulated expertly what I was trying to say, without disparaging Kris Bryant. I stand corrected regarding KB... he's 10th in runs scored (NL), and 3rd in walks. And 20th in OPS. Good season, even with a so-so BA and rbi production. And I remember last season, he was among the best at avoiding grounding into double plays. Thus, even in an off year (by his standards), he's doing reasonably well, although not quite up to All-Star status.

I just found it kind of fascinating contrasting his rbi numbers with Dansby, who may very well have suffered the same fate as Kyle Schwarber, (demoted to the minors), had he not made a strong surge during the month of June.

I'm a fan of both the Braves and the Cubs. The Braves since 1966 when they moved to Atlanta (Milo Hamilton was my favorite announcer, although I never knew about the bitter feud between him and the Carrey family until recently - long story), and the Cubs the past 2 years, as an unabashedly ashamed bandwagonner, primarily due to their underdog status and long drought in World Series play.

I guess I'm just feeling a bit frustrated that the Cubbies seem to be pulling a "KC Royals" this year, similar to what happened to the Royals after they won the WS in '15.

OPS... gotta remember that this is the new metric these days, as opposed to the old metrics I grew up with of BA, HR, and RBI. :-)

[micah75]

Well, I reckon I made a donkey of myself, yet again. Seems to be my m.o. here. KB just went 4-5 with 2 homers and 4 rbi today. If it's any consolation, I didn't make a single post here during the '15 b'ball championship season, not wanting to jinx the team. Will most likely do the same come November. Cheers.

[A-Tex Devil]

Intersting to see ESPN/MLB network leading with another Aaron Judge home run in a Yankees loss.

Meanwhile, Astros have 3 of the top 6 in WAR in the AL. Plus a guy most haven't even heard of (who absolutely was an All Star snub) with following stat line:

0.978 OPS, 15 HRs, 51 RBIs... in just 214 at bats.

I'll hand Judge ROY and MVP. But, man, Stros run deep.