If UNC Wins the Title, A Potential Re-evaluation of Roy vs. K

[Doria]

There is no need to re-evaluate, if one is more measured in their evaluation in the first place. Roy Williams is an excellent college basketball coach. Certainly one of the absolute best in the business today, and likely among the all-time greats.

People put too much weight on outcomes that turn on tiny differences. Jenkins missing that shot would not have made Roy a better coach. Hitting it did not make Roy worse.

Asking who is better is a bit misguided. Based on the whole body of work, K comes out ahead. Based on a single year, well, I suspect each have done better jobs than the other.

I don't like Carolina outperforming Duke, as they have the last two years, but they have. Does that mean I would trade K for Roy?

Not in a heartbeat.

I agree with this. I'd also add that Roy is a good recruiter.

Not sure about the penultimate sentence. If Carolina doesn't at least go to the Final Four this year, I'm hard pressed to see how they outperformed Duke (it would then be an unbalanced regular season championship versus an ACCT championship).

Ultimately, I'm honestly not sure how useful this comparison is. I'm sure anyone can manipulate the data to say what they it to, but I'm not certain that it will ever settle this question. And as Cato points out, if we're using wins and/or championships, a lot comes down to luck and/or things beyond a coach's control (e.g., one shot, injuries, etc.). Not saying that it isn't entertaining to think about, but I believe it has its limits. I certainly wouldn't get worked up over it, as both Duke and Carolina fans tend to do.

[UNCfan]

I certainly wouldn't get worked up over it, as both Duke and Carolina fans tend to do.

Packman clinging to his gun and his bible. Nothing else on the horizon to soak up that negative energy. I am really sorry this NCAA issue affects you the way it does. It must make for some long days waiting for the shoe to drop. I hope you find peace one day, whatever the result.

[kako]

This same talk happened after UNC won last decade. They had 2005 and 2009, K hadn't won since 2001. K was still up 3-2 over Ol' Roy, but talk happened. Then K won. And won again. Now he's up 5-2, and has a significant lead over UNC head-to-head since Roy showed up. K has also won far more ACC tournament crowns than Roy since 2005. K also never played in the NIT in the same period, unlike Roy's team in 2010.

If the Heels win, yeah, some noise may happen again. But K still owns the numbers overall, though it's 3-2 Bad Blue in championships since 2005. All the more reason to:

1. Root against Carolina (like this was a question)
2. Keep the Duke faith (just wish K would go to a deeper bench)

[Rich]

This angle is preached on IC often, and it does have merit. But, Duke is dominating the rivalry head to head and, is winning with the NCAA cloud UNC currently has. So, if that is the perception you are currently having, then that makes me happy. But, I can tell you UNC fans currently have a major inferiority complex when it comes to Duke and it started around 2000. When Roy returned and UNC won 2 NC, we got our swag back. I imagine we were ridiculous in regaining that swag. Then Duke wins 2 more NC's, UNC has NCAA issues, and we stop landing recruits. If we win one this year, we will be even more unbearable. But, we still have our NCAA issues that will not allow us to completely earn the top spot in the rivalry. Just my two cents, but UNC isn't even close to being top dog in this rivalry until that cloud has disappeared and K has retired.

The numbers can be tweaked or skewed any which way, but as long as Carolina fans have an inferiority complex towards K and Duke, that's good enough for me. I'm old enough to remember when they were king of the hill and we were just trying to get to their level. We've surpassed them and it's not going to change no matter how a few recent seasons turn out. It won't change until K and/or Roy retire and depends on where their successors take the respective programs.

[Indoor66]

The numbers can be tweaked or skewed any which way, but as long as Carolina fans have an inferiority complex towards K and Duke, that's good enough for me. I'm old enough to remember when they were king of the hill and we were just trying to get to their level. We've surpassed them and it's not going to change no matter how a few recent seasons turn out. It won't change until K and/or Roy retire and depends on where their successors take the respective programs.

And I am old enough to remember when Duke was king of the hill before the Dump moved ahead in the late 60's. The Sun Don't Shine On The Same Dog's Butt Every Day.

[Hauerwas]

I think the real question is, if given the dualistic choice, which coach would you want running your program, K or Roy? My guess is that even the most ardent Heel fan would reluctantly pick K. Interesting that during this same tenure K has received invitations from the Celtics, Lakers and who knows who else to be their next coach and I can't think of any NBA team, USA Team, etc.. that has reached out to Roy.

[UNCfan]

I think the real question is, if given the dualistic choice, which coach would you want running your program, K or Roy? My guess is that even the most ardent Heel fan would reluctantly pick K. Interesting that during this same tenure K has received invitations from the Celtics, Lakers and who knows who else to be their next coach and I can't think of any NBA team, USA Team, etc.. that has reached out to Roy.

You are incorrect assuming that a UNC fan would want K at the head of the program. UNC fans do not like K in the way you guys didn't like Dean. I cannot imagine you saying back in Dean's day that you would want him at your helm. A real UNC fan can admire Dukes success, but the coaches carry themselves differently and UNC favors the way Dean did it. I am sure Packman will pop in and say "yeah, they cheated." So be it.

From what I understand, the Lakers have approached Roy about the head coaching job, but he didn't make it public. It happened as recently as 2014, according to CBSsports.com.

[CDu]

I'm not old enough to remember Duke before K got there, but KU, despite being defending national champs, had a ton of issues when Roy arrived in the summer of '88. He had to build a team of mostly underclassmen (80-90% of the ppg graduated), and was about to get hit with probation and a postseason ban brought on by his predecessor. The probation lost him 2 of his 3 star recruits (Thomas Hill and Harold Miner). The AD in general was struggling. He turned that around quickly to get to Final 4s in 92 and 93. Those years he actually tried hard as a coach.

Of course, even a wounded KU in the late 80s had massive advantages over the vast majority of other cbb schools. But it wasn't exactly a tuned-up, humming, shiny corvette. There was a degree of difficulty.

KU was fresh off a national championship. While it is true that they were also hit with probation due to the Manning stuff. But they were a national champion program. In that day and age, that's a BIG deal.

Duke cerca 1980 was an okay team, but very much fighting uphill relative to UNC and roughly on par with NC State (which was a much better program back then). State had just hired Valvano after Sloan had left. Duke replaced Bill Foster with Coach K. But the recruiting well had run a bit dry. Coach K had inherited some good seniors (Banks and Dennard), and a couple of good younger players (Vince Taylor and Chip Engelland). But beyond that it wasn't a tremendously deep team. And it was a bad time to not be great. UNC was at the height of Dean Smith's powers. UVa had Ralph Sampson. NC State was building the team that would be the 1983 champs. Maryland was coached by Lefty Driesell.

The 1981 team did just okay. The 1982 and 1983 teams had a rough time of it as they were very young and in an incredibly unforgiving conference. Then, with the arrival of Tommy Amaker to join Dawkins, Alarie, Bilas, and Henderson, the wheels started rolling.

I'd argue that Coach K and Coach Williams had fairly similar challenges. Actually, I think Coach K probably had a tougher challenge given the relative strength of the conferences at the time that both took their jobs. Not that the Big-8 was bad - just that the ACC was tougher.

[duke4ever19]

UNC looked pretty fragile vs Arkansas. Something about those SEC teams . . .


I don't expect to see them in the Final Four.

[flyingdutchdevil]

You are incorrect assuming that a UNC fan would want K at the head of the program. UNC fans do not like K in the way you guys didn't like Dean. I cannot imagine you saying back in Dean's day that you would want him at your helm. A real UNC fan can admire Dukes success, but the coaches carry themselves differently and UNC favors the way Dean did it. I am sure Packman will pop in and say "yeah, they cheated." So be it.

From what I understand, the Lakers have approached Roy about the head coaching job, but he didn't make it public. It happened as recently as 2014, according to CBSsports.com.

A few things:

1) UNC did cheat. I mean, that's not really debatable. You can debate your punishment. But plenty of UNC athletes cheated academically. It's a pretty solid argument. And one that doesn't get old

2) Of course Duke doesn't want Dean and UNC doesn't want K! You think Auburn wants Saban? Or Liverpool wants Alex Ferguson? Or Heaven wants Satan? I mean, that's pretty normal.

3) Roy is a good coach. Not debatable. Better than K? Totally debatable. I say 'no way'. UNCers say 'of course'. I say '5 titles'. UNCers say 'Roy Williams will have 5 by the time he retires'. I say 'Head to head record'. UNCers say 'Look at our brass over the last 5-6 years'. I say 'our athletes go to class'. You say 'shut up'.

[WiJoe]

I agree with whatever PackMan97 types.

Th only reason the Lakes "approached" ol' huck was because the now FIRED mitch kupchak was high on the totem pole at the time.

roy williams ... what a friggin' JOKE.

[Utley]

What's the head to head record over this period? I know we have owned Roy recently.

My god I think folks are overreacting to the SC loss. It was one bad night/matchup. If feels like the panic after the State loss and the Miami loss. We have been finer for the last 27 years than anyone else and we will continue to be fine. We won't win the tourney every year.

All I know is I have watched a lot of Duke-UNC games and while I am far from an expert on this board, it's beyond clear to me that K>Roy.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

ONCE AGAIN, because THAT is my time frame. It's just as valid as any other. I've already said that K has a (much) better career to this point.

My timeframe is since the 2014-2015 season, specifically so that my answer can be "nope, we're still way better."

[TexHawk]

While it is true that they were also hit with probation due to the Manning stuff

Correction: The probation was a result of buying a plane ticket for Vincent Askew to see his dying grandmother. He was considering a transfer from Memphis State at the time (1986), and thus was deemed a recruiting violation. I don't believe this is even a minor violation today.

Little known, but KU was under probation already from a football violation a couple years earlier, so the death penalty was seriously considered.

Thanks on the Duke history. Always good to know.

[devilnfla]

Why are you limiting the criteria just to when Roy arrived at UNC? He had a solid career at Kansas, too, which isn't exactly basketball chopped liver.

I'd look at their careers as a whole.

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...yzewski-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/...illiams-1.html

K is 1071-330 (.764 win percent, including his time at Army)
Roy is 812-216 (.790 win percent)

K has 5 titles; Roy has 2
K has 12 final fours; Roy has 8

I think Roy has more work to do to get to K's level. He's running out of time, though.

Couple things left off.

Roy didn't build unc or KU into the program they are today. While unc was down when he arrived, he won the 1st title with players he did not recruit.

K also beat him H2H in the 1991 title game.

K's Army record and early Duke record bring his overall winning % down.

Roy has 1 clear advantage. His winning % in the NIT.

[cato]

A few things:

1) UNC did cheat. I mean, that's not really debatable. You can debate your punishment. But plenty of UNC athletes cheated academically. It's a pretty solid argument. And one that doesn't get old

What punishment? No wonder UNC fans are so quiet about the subject.

[cato]

What's the head to head record over this period? I know we have owned Roy recently.

My god I think folks are overreacting to the SC loss. It was one bad night/matchup. If feels like the panic after the State loss and the Miami loss. We have been finer for the last 27 years than anyone else and we will continue to be fine. We won't win the tourney every year.

All I know is I have watched a lot of Duke-UNC games and while I am far from an expert on this board, it's beyond clear to me that K>Roy.

And hey, ACC Champs ain't a bad consolation prize.

[Jeffrey]

From what I understand, the Lakers have approached Roy about the head coaching job, but he didn't make it public. It happened as recently as 2014, according to CBSsports.com.

Makes sense! The Lakers have no academic requirements.

[Hauerwas]

You are incorrect assuming that a UNC fan would want K at the head of the program. UNC fans do not like K in the way you guys didn't like Dean. I cannot imagine you saying back in Dean's day that you would want him at your helm.

I didn't want Dean at Duke because he was a sanctimonious, holier than thou, closet chain smoker who created an auro that he was better than everyone while simultaneously creating the atmosphere leading to the greatest academic fraud in NCAA history. Dean was the embodiment of entitlement. Yet, Dean always had the odor of a fraud. He had a manipulative persona. I don't think even the most diehard UNC fan would say the same of K.

[Indoor66]

I didn't want Dean at Duke because he was a sanctimonious, holier than thou, closet chain smoker who created an auro that he was better than everyone while simultaneously creating the atmosphere leading to the greatest academic fraud in NCAA history. Dean was the embodiment of entitlement. Yet, Dean always had the odor of a fraud. He had a manipulative persona. I don't think even the most diehard UNC fan would say the same of K.

I agree with your entire post except that the last sentence is pure dreaming on your part. 😎